autan Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Dont take my word for it, but the Thai Economy is at the top of the economic cycle is currenly being support by debt. Thailand is pricing itself out of the market by holding such as stong currency, although holding a strong baht is good for borrowing money. Dont take my work for this, but I predict thay that over the next 12 months, the Thai Baht will slowly be allowed to depreciate, partially on the back of 2012. Inflation is rampant in Thailand at the moment, so if Thailand devalues the currency it can stimulate growth through exports and tourism, bringing in revenues to pay by the debts for the floods and infrastructure. My estimates range from 30 -50 per cent devaluation over the next 12 months, partially because of market reluctance to by governement debt, especially when Euro currencies start defaulting on their loans, this will push up bond yeilds elsewhere to plug the gap. Where is elsewhere you have guessed it in one. South East Asian markets. A good time to be out of the Thai Bath at least until August 2012 at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
endure Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 A good time to be out of the Thai Bath is when you can't find the plug... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
autan Posted December 10, 2011 Author Share Posted December 10, 2011 A good time to be out of the Thai Bath is when you can't find the plug... Well it is 12:30 in the morning in the UK. Stella Artois the dirty little drink has had her way with me again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berkshire Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Is it "Make a wish day" in farangland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
autan Posted December 10, 2011 Author Share Posted December 10, 2011 Is it "Make a wish day" in farangland? Perhaps, but wishes can come true you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berkshire Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Is it "Make a wish day" in farangland? Perhaps, but wishes can come true you know. True. I hope your wish includes the US$ going to about 40 to the baht. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayboy Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Is it "Make a wish day" in farangland? It's a profoundly silly observation also not least because the Thai economy is not encumbered by significant debt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poanoi Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 (edited) @autan: How can you say Thailand currently has such strong currency, and then in the next breath say Thailand currently has a rampant inflation ? Sounds more like wishful thinking to get better buying power, i take it you are English since you hope to get 85 baht for a pound. But i just watched England voting against stricter economic policy so odds are pound is going down further, quite possibly with a devaluation, so now is a good time to bring over whatever pound you got Edited December 10, 2011 by poanoi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thaimate Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 I believed we would get 85 baht to the pound as well ,then i woke up. And at last Cameron has grown some Balls and told Europe where to go ,with any luck we will get out altogether ,then the pound will strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samran Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 It isn't just the spelling that the Stella's are affecting. Perhaps there should be a 'time capsule' forum where threads with predictions such as this can be reopened on the appropriate date with a good laugh to be had by all then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbk Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Moving to business and economy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 It isn't just the spelling that the Stella's are affecting. Perhaps there should be a 'time capsule' forum where threads with predictions such as this can be reopened on the appropriate date with a good laugh to be had by all then. some months ago i counted 14 threads which, over several years, all dealt with the "fact" that the Thai economy is about to fall into the abyss dragging the Thai Baht along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nong38 Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 (edited) I believed we would get 85 baht to the pound as well ,then i woke up. And at last Cameron has grown some Balls and told Europe where to go ,with any luck we will get out altogether ,then the pound will strengthen. 85bts to the £ sounds very good, I will wait for that happen and be happy too much if it does. Your comments about the Euro I agree with. I used to be euro supporter but no more, they take our money and tell us what to do and what do we get Jack s--t. The majority of the UK want out so lets get out. Dont give the tosh about trade, it works both ways, they wont suddenly stop trading with us. They made the cock up without the Uk so throw them mop and bucket, now it will be interesting to see if the £ reacts better than euro to the baht. Edited December 10, 2011 by nong38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hiso1956 Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 We can only dream of the old days when exchange rates were on foreign $s favour agaqinst the thai baht. Its been a long time and only hope things will come back again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soutpeel Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Moving to business and economy Should have moved it to the wet dream/fantasy land forum.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TingTawng Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 (edited) I can promise you that the UK government will do a few more rounds of quantitative easing in 2012 diluting the pound further. The same goes for the US and US dollar - same for the Euro. The trouble is that these currencies are getting weaker. I don't know how much Thailand exports to these parts of the world, but if it's a significant proportion, then they may have to weaken the baht to ensure no loss in export sales because they're becoming too expensive. As for tourism, it could be another reason to weaken the baht. I know people go on about tourism only being 7% of the economy, but after the floods and drop in growth (and predicted growth), tourism might become that much more important again. Also consider foreign investment - another reason to weaken the baht. Edited December 10, 2011 by TingTawng Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
E1717007 Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 "My estimates range from 30 -50 per cent devaluation over the next 12 months, partially because of market reluctance to by governement debt, " i doubt it, since Thai has a massive foreign reserve. 5-10% is acceptable to boost export and tourist receipt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PattayaPhom Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Moving to business and economy You should move it to the comedy forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FritsSikkink Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 OK i won't take your word (and work) for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 "My estimates range from 30 -50 per cent devaluation over the next 12 months, partially because of market reluctance to by governement debt, " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inzman Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Somebody been smokin something, I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nong38 Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 All cometh to he who waiteth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rakman Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 I can promise you that the UK government will do a few more rounds of quantitative easing in 2012 diluting the pound further. The same goes for the US and US dollar - same for the Euro. The trouble is that these currencies are getting weaker. I don't know how much Thailand exports to these parts of the world, but if it's a significant proportion, then they may have to weaken the baht to ensure no loss in export sales because they're becoming too expensive. As for tourism, it could be another reason to weaken the baht. I know people go on about tourism only being 7% of the economy, but after the floods and drop in growth (and predicted growth), tourism might become that much more important again. Also consider foreign investment - another reason to weaken the baht. I think the question is "What happens to the Euro?" If the Euro collapses, what will happen in Europe? How will the civilized people react? Banks are already scrambling not only to provide local currency, but handling the exchange rates and bond adjustments. Talk about a nightmare. How long did it take to implement the Euro and now it might have to be unwound is a matter of weeks? Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal are continuing to put extreme pressure on the Euro. If there was only 25 - 100 Trillion of any currency out there to bail the Euro out. But the Euro is s fiat currency and there is a good chance it will collapse. The predictions are we'll know soon what happens. The let the fallout begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chivas Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Am sure it will hit 75 but cannot see 85 at the moment...... Wishful thinking to go that high... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lite Beer Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 A Post and the reply to it deleted. 7) Not to post slurs or degrading comments directed towards any group on the basis of race, nationality, religion, gender or sexual orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
morrobay Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 (edited) If the pound went to 85 baht then the dollar would have to go to 53 baht : 48/85 = 30/x If the dollar was any thing thing less than 53 baht, and the pound = $1.56. Then a Daisy Chain can be set up to generate pounds. For example if the dollar only went to 40 baht. then with one pound ( 85 baht ) / 40 baht = 2.12 So with 85 baht worth $2.12 and the pound = $1.56. $2.12/ $1.56/pound = 1.35 pounds. Now start the cycle over again with 85 baht/pound x 1.35 pounds = 115 baht Or the dollar could devalue also against the pound : 1 pound / $2.12 and this would cancel the Daisy Chain But would still be an improvement for the dollar/ 40 baht Edited December 11, 2011 by metisdead Font resized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ricardo Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Moving to business and economy Should have moved it to the wet dream/fantasy land forum.... Or perhaps, in view of the floods, the wet-land fantasy-dream forum ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdenner Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Ya gotta wonder what planet some of these financial wiz kids come from. Can't figure why the OP is wasting time on this site when he could be making a fortune day trading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Ya gotta wonder what planet some of these financial wiz kids come from. Can't figure why the OP is wasting time on this site when he could be making a fortune day trading. day trading is rather difficult during weekends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nong38 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Ya gotta wonder what planet some of these financial wiz kids come from. Can't figure why the OP is wasting time on this site when he could be making a fortune day trading. day trading is rather difficult during weekends I tried day trading at night once but fell asleep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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