Thai and Cambodian press warn of escalating tensions following Miss Grand scandal

[johnbits]

I don't normally trade thai baht or stocks, but I get indications the local enonomy is headed down in a more serious and prolonged way. Not what I would call really long term, maybe for 1-2 years.

It shouldn't surprise anyone, what with the red shirt protest, then the global economy, and the floods were likely the tipping point for Thailand.

It seems more seroius to me this time. I wanted to ask the locals, are you seeing indications that everyone is starting to pull in and hunker down for a downturn?

Things I would look for are usual sales in all venues, not many customers in bars, expats maybe leaving to go home, fewer toursist, airlines cutting routes, big players "retiring" from their positions, poor canidates running for political office.

What are your thoughts on the Thai economy?

Edited December 28, 2011 by johnbits

[theblether]

I noticed my gf groaning as she watched the news today, she said that the news was all about the economy looking rough and she was particularly concerned about the cost of oil going up due to the Iranian threat to close the straits of Hormuz. If the TV news bangs on about a poor economic outlook then it must have an effect on confidence.

So it could be a self fulfilling prophesy.

[Jingthing]

I noticed my gf groaning as she watched the news today, she said that the news was all about the economy looking rough and she was particularly concerned about the cost of oil going up due to the Iranian threat to close the straits of Hormuz. If the TV news bangs on about a poor economic outlook then it must have an effect on confidence.

So it could be a self fulfilling prophesy.

Maybe some good news then.

“We would be committing economical suicide by closing off the Hormuz Strait,” said an Iranian Oil Ministry official who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject. “Oil money is our only income, so we would be spectacularly shooting ourselves in the foot by doing that.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/despite-threats-iran-unlikely-to-block-oil-shipments-through-strait-of-hormuz/2011/12/28/gIQAVSOSMP_story.html

[kanderson]

It's a bit of a positive seeing the Baht weakening against the usd. I was afraid it would go to 25 or something. A nice 40 Bt per $ would be nice. I doubt we will see those days again.

[Pib]

I know it's still right after the worst flooding in a lifetime with all the job losses and property damage, and it's the holidays, but day-to-day living economic activity by looking at the Thai mall/market foot traffic, vehicles on the roads, higher than normal inflation, neighbor discussions on current economic affairs, etc., it sure does seem 2012 is going to be a slow growth to flat year. A lot of people have a lot of recovering to do from the floods which is going to focus their money on necessities and repairs/recovery. Heck, cell phone sales in Thailand might even taper-off in 2012---the horror!!!!! No, I take that back, in Thailand the younger generations consider a new cell phone each year a neccessity.

Edited December 29, 2011 by Pib

[thaimate]

I know it's still right after the worst flooding in a lifetime with all the job losses and property damage, and it's the holidays, but day-to-day living economic activity by looking at the Thai mall/market foot traffic, vehicles on the roads, higher than normal inflation, neighbor discussions on current economic affairs, etc., it sure does seem 2012 is going to be a slow growth to flat year. A lot of people have a lot of recovering to do from the floods which is going to focus their money on necessities and repairs/recovery. Heck, cell phone sales in Thailand might even taper-off in 2012---the horror!!!!! No, I take that back, in Thailand the younger generations consider a new cell phone each year a neccessity.

A new cell phone each year a neccesity? what planet are you from ,my son would have a new model every 3 months if i let him

Edited December 29, 2011 by thaimate

[fletchsmile]

Thailand has a habit of shooting itself in the foot year after year. Yet the economy plows on. Starting from a low base, there is always a lot of potential, with upside higher than downside. That said remember the quote:

"Thailand has potential and it always will have..."

Leastways, the next few years look rosier than the west.

[london]

There's a WORLDWIDE economic decline in progress, so it is unlikely that any country will be immune.

That said, the trick is to find one that is less affected. One where your lifestyle wont be affected too much and really, if you turned off the TV and didn't read the papers, you wouldn't know there was a problem.

Mmmmm, remind you of anywhere ?

[zakk9]

As long as the majority of the Thai population accepts living in concrete boxes and on a minimum wage, industry in Thailand will prosper. The arrival of real democracy and equal rights for all might change that, but I can't really see that happening, not in my lifetime anyway.

[12DrinkMore]

As long as the majority of the Thai population accepts living in concrete boxes and on a minimum wage, industry in Thailand will prosper. The arrival of real democracy and equal rights for all might change that, but I can't really see that happening, not in my lifetime anyway

It's not democracy or equal rights that screw up economies,

It's massive socialism.

Edited December 30, 2011 by 12DrinkMore

[mommysboy]

As long as the majority of the Thai population accepts living in concrete boxes and on a minimum wage, industry in Thailand will prosper. The arrival of real democracy and equal rights for all might change that, but I can't really see that happening, not in my lifetime anyway

It's not democracy or equal rights that screw up economies,

It's massive socialism.

Err, that's why the west is in such a mess then ?!? nothing to do with rampant unregulated capitalism after all!

Thailand will probably grow, because Thailand the economy and Thailand the people are by no means the same thing.

One significant thing is the proposed transfer of public debt to central bank debt, which at a guess wipes out most of the reserves and should effectively devalue the baht, thus also stimulating exports in the key manuafacturing sector. But UK underwent significant devaluation and it did not make much of a difference, demand in the west is very subdued according to all news reports I've heard. If that holds true for Thailand too, then big problems ahead.

But the people will suffer, agriculture and tourism employs many millions and when theses sectors suffer as they are doing then there is sure to be a great impact on the poor.

Hope this baht devaluation occurs, great relief all round I think.

[samran]

As long as the majority of the Thai population accepts living in concrete boxes and on a minimum wage, industry in Thailand will prosper. The arrival of real democracy and equal rights for all might change that, but I can't really see that happening, not in my lifetime anyway

It's not democracy or equal rights that screw up economies,

It's massive socialism.

Musta been a form of socialism to which Deutcsche Bank, Lehman Brothers and the engineers of all those CDO's were subscribers to. Maybe they all had busts of Lenin in their offices when they collected their multi-million dollar bonuses.

I wondered if they goose stepped out of the building when they were all let go?

Calling it socialism - what a silly statement.

[Naam]

One significant thing is the proposed transfer of public debt to central bank debt, which at a guess wipes out most of the reserves and should effectively devalue the baht, thus also stimulating exports in the key manuafacturing sector.

transferring public debt to the BoT is nothing but window dressing accounting and it does not at all affect the reserves. what it does is changing a few irrelevant lines of the BoT's irrelevant balance sheet. but even if said amount of public debt is taken into consideration and deducted from Thailand's reserves a cool 100 billion (Dollars NOT Baht) reserves still exist.

my apologies for pricking the devaluation bubble

[chainarong]

Thailand is very resilient when it comes to it's industrial base , the only thing that will hurt is a wage push, China has a big problem with this and now the international industries are moving out, I don't support piss poor wages for countries to prosper economically but that's what happens in the bigger world of finance. Other factors ,bank finance ,oil price and a total collapse of the world market , other than that ask santa clause.

[mommysboy]

One significant thing is the proposed transfer of public debt to central bank debt, which at a guess wipes out most of the reserves and should effectively devalue the baht, thus also stimulating exports in the key manuafacturing sector.

transferring public debt to the BoT is nothing but window dressing accounting and it does not at all affect the reserves. what it does is changing a few irrelevant lines of the BoT's irrelevant balance sheet. but even if said amount of public debt is taken into consideration and deducted from Thailand's reserves a cool 100 billion (Dollars NOT Baht) reserves still exist.

my apologies for pricking the devaluation bubble

Thanks, very educative.

Thailand is the victim of its own success in this area anyway. The baht really needs to devalue, for Thailand to be competitve.

2012 could be a very rocky year indeed - weak growth at best.

[Naam]

1. The baht really needs to devalue, for Thailand to be competitve.

2. 2012 could be a very rocky year indeed - weak growth at best.

1. wishful thinking does not necessarily point to facts even if often and since 5 years repeated in this forum.

2. that applies to most countries.

[Pib]

Thailand is the victim of its own success in this area anyway. The baht really needs to devalue, for Thailand to be competitive.

You could say that about every country trying to be competitive and trying to increase their exports. Maybe the U.S. and Eurozone should try devaluing their currencies? STOP...STOP...ignore that previous sentence...my pensions/savings are in USD!!!!

[thaimate]

Thailand is the victim of its own success in this area anyway. The baht really needs to devalue, for Thailand to be competitive.

You could say that about every country trying to be competitive and trying to increase their exports. Maybe the U.S. and Eurozone should try devaluing their currencies? STOP...STOP...ignore that previous sentence...my pensions/savings are in USD!!!!

The British govt have already devalued the pound by keeping interest rates low and the moment there is good news and the pound rises a little Mervyn comes on and tells us all how bad things are so that it goes down again