Thaksin's Retreat May Cut Conflict

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE

Thaksin's retreat may cut conflict

Avudh Panananda

THE NATION

This year's political mercury suggests fair weather with occasional storms over petty issues.

An approaching storm is being thwarted simply because the government has switched into reverse gear in order to avoid confronting its opponents over controversies like charter change and lese majeste law.

And clouds should dissipate due to an unspoken message from fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to delay his homecoming.

Although the government leaders did not spell out a change of plan, it is clear that Thaksin has no longer set a deadline for his amnesty. He appears to have conceded to two things - that he could not be granted a pardon by this year and that he could not expect his sister and Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra to engineer his homecoming, due to the fact it would be a conflict of interest.

Thaksin should be well aware that any hasty push for an amnesty would only inflame the political situation, hence his decision to bide for time.

He appears to have also seen that Yingluck is in no position to bring about an amnesty for him. If and when an opportunity arises to untangle his legal issues, he will have to make a tough decision on whether to keep his sister in the position of prime minister, or to replace her with someone who can resolve the amnesty issue.

Fortunately, the country should see relative calm before Thaksin will have to choose between his sister and a new prime ministerial candidate to pave way for his amnesty.

With Thaksin remaining a puppeteer, pulling strings from afar for at least another year, the government can afford to put the charter rewrite on hold.

The perceived urgency to amend the charter can be attributed to the rush to pardon Thaksin. The repeal of the charter's Article 309, which condones the coup-sanctioned activities, is seen as key to rescuing him from his conviction.

There is no reason to speed up the amendment process if Thaksin has put off plans to come home.

The red shirts are spearheading a campaign to solicit the support of 50,000 to 200,000 voters in order to sponsor a motion for a rewrite of the charter. But this is to showcase their movement rather than a serious move to sideline the government. It will take months or years to verify the reds' signatures.

The charter change will be activated if and when the government deems it necessary. The road map for the new charter will hinge on three key reports compiled by the Truth for Reconciliation Commission of Thailand, the Independent National Rule of Law Commission and the House Committee on reconciliation.

The three reports should be completed later this year. So the earliest date that a redraft of the charter might commence at year-end.

Yingluck's job is safe for now. Thaksin is unlikely to rock the boat before he can fully assess his options for amnesty.

Three contenders to replace Yingluck are Chaturon Chaisang, Surakiart Sathirathai and Somkid Jatusripitak. But Yingluck's leadership will prevail for at least a year or two. Thaksin seems to face certain drawbacks regardless of what he decides. Chaturon is the best qualified candidate, who could engineer an amnesty, but is seen as his own man. Whereas Surakiart and Somkid are regarded as aloof to the red shirts, because of their close ties with the royalist camp.

From now to April, the Yingluck government will face some petty issues, none of which will trigger a downfall. The most critical is likely to come from pressure to bring the red shirts, particularly Pheu Thai MP Jatuporn Promphan, into the Cabinet line-up.

-- The Nation 2012-01-10

[Buchholz]

bring the red shirts, particularly Pheu Thai MP Jatuporn Promphan, into the Cabinet line-up.

Injustice Minister?

.

[OzMick]

you might think that having been convicted on charges arising from a conflict of interest, Thaksin might understand the concept. Apparently not.

While grasping that his sister engineering his return is corruption, ".... he will have to make a tough decision on whether to keep his sister in the position of prime minister, or to replace her with someone who can resolve the amnesty issue." DOH!

His pet sycophant thinks a blatant disregard of the country's legal system is a petty issue, that should be resolved by a popularity petition. i wonder how many people, when confronted in their home by a couple of red thugs, decline to sign.

Hopefully his next retreat will be the big one - a recall home by Satan.

[Buchholz]

He appears to have also seen that Yingluck is in no position to bring about an amnesty for him. If and when an opportunity arises to untangle his legal issues, he will have to make a tough decision on whether to keep his sister in the position of prime minister, or to replace her with someone who can resolve the amnesty issue.

Will Thaksin return?

Some wonder whether the former Thai PM really needs to come back, as he shows signs of being able to run the government perfectly well from abroad.

He has a grip over appointments to the cabinet and he sends an incessant stream of advice to ministers and members of parliament.

Continues:

http://gulfnews.com/...return-1.963635

The Economist - January 10, 2012

.

[virtualtraveller]

Thaksin and PT flipflop and send out deliberately mixed messages all the time, I wouldn't take this news seriously. Running the country from Dubai IS difficult, and there are all sorts of egos and power trips jockeying for power, the Red shirts being the biggest monsters in the room, sooner or later (probably with the cabinet reshuffle in May) factions and dissatisfaction will occur, pressure will come to bear, Yingluck will be over her head, something will have to crack, and bingo that's when the PAD then start their shit. He's finally realised that despite a landslide victory, you can't just make up the laws, and that there are still lengthy impediments to his return, yet he knows the longer it goes on the more untenable it will become.

[sparebox2]

He appears to have also seen that Yingluck is in no position to bring about an amnesty for him. If and when an opportunity arises to untangle his legal issues, he will have to make a tough decision on whether to keep his sister in the position of prime minister, or to replace her with someone who can resolve the amnesty issue.

Will Thaksin return?

Some wonder whether the former Thai PM really needs to come back, as he shows signs of being able to run the government perfectly well from abroad.

He has a grip over appointments to the cabinet and he sends an incessant stream of advice to ministers and members of parliament.

Continues:

http://gulfnews.com/...return-1.963635

The Economist - January 10, 2012

.

If the much hated Gen Thanom can return, why not Thaksin? Double standard?

[hellodolly]

He appears to have also seen that Yingluck is in no position to bring about an amnesty for him. If and when an opportunity arises to untangle his legal issues, he will have to make a tough decision on whether to keep his sister in the position of prime minister, or to replace her with someone who can resolve the amnesty issue.

Will Thaksin return?

Some wonder whether the former Thai PM really needs to come back, as he shows signs of being able to run the government perfectly well from abroad.

He has a grip over appointments to the cabinet and he sends an incessant stream of advice to ministers and members of parliament.

Continues:

http://gulfnews.com/...return-1.963635

The Economist - January 10, 2012

.

If the much hated Gen Thanom can return, why not Thaksin? Double standard?

You are confused by the red shirt rhetoric. Thaksin can return to Thailand and if he plays his cards rite the government will even pay his way and meet him at the airport with a committee.

[hanuman1]

Thaksin's position seems to be getting stronger and stronger, regardless of to what extent he is pulling the unseen strings.

I wonder if Thaksin haters on this forum would agree with that, or consider it more pro-Thaksin rhetoric from another of his red-shirt-apologist disciples?

By the way, I once again reiterate I think Thaksin should do his time in jail and Abhisit was a very good politician, by Thai standards. Maybe that should be my 'signature' below. On second thoughts, I wouldn't want to get that obsessed with these issues. Although I can see how it can happen....

[theblether]

I reckon the law of unintended consequences will come into play here, the longer he is out of the country the weaker his position will become. I reckon events will overtake him. He has too many well connected and seriously powerful bitter enemies in Thailand, at the risk of stating the obvious, thats why he is not here. These enemies wont disappear and he knows it.

[MikeOboe57]

Thaksin's position seems to be getting stronger and stronger... [...]

I disagree. No doubt he pulled his biggest stunt by using a bit of his money and some hideous promises to make the Thais elect a completely clueless and politically incompetent newbie as PM.

But his sister was only meant to act as a short interim caretaker with the only task to enable Thaksins speedy return to former glory. As this failed to materialize, this shrewd plan is beginning to backfire. The longer little sister will have to remain in office, the more urgent the need becomes to find an alternative for her who can do her job for long term.

[animatic]

Reality is slowly creeping into Thaksins calculations,

rather than solely the self aggrandizing ego sop his plans usually are.

Sure he can control the government better from here, but, he also becomes a MUCH easier target to hit if he comes back, and ups the percentage of those who would see him as an eminent danger and might weight the risks of action more closely. Not as much the case if he stays off shore.

What ever it is, there is clearly some form of block against his plans, that he fears enough not try to topple at present. A deal may have been brokered to return the 'semblance of Democracy', to return, such as it exists in Thailand, and Thaksin may have taken that to mean he gets his way... looks like he over reached in expectations at least.

Certainly his opponents know his thought and action patterns better than us external observers, and have let him know where he stands at the moment. If this were not the case, he would have bulled his way back already.

Edited January 10, 2012 by animatic

[renaissanc]

bring the red shirts, particularly Pheu Thai MP Jatuporn Promphan, into the Cabinet line-up.

Injustice Minister?

.

Oh, no! "Minister of Truth, Honesty, and Reconciliation" would be much better.

Edited January 10, 2012 by renaissanc

[drdoom6996]

He appears to have also seen that Yingluck is in no position to bring about an amnesty for him. If and when an opportunity arises to untangle his legal issues, he will have to make a tough decision on whether to keep his sister in the position of prime minister, or to replace her with someone who can resolve the amnesty issue.

Will Thaksin return?

Some wonder whether the former Thai PM really needs to come back, as he shows signs of being able to run the government perfectly well from abroad.

He has a grip over appointments to the cabinet and he sends an incessant stream of advice to ministers and members of parliament.

Continues:

http://gulfnews.com/...return-1.963635

The Economist - January 10, 2012

.

Taksin by proxy?

[gymboy33]

strategic retreat.

A few moves from check.

from the grandmaster.

Edited January 10, 2012 by gymboy33

[KRS1]

You have to wonder why this fool has yet to be whacked.

[theblether]

strategic retreat.

A few moves from check.

from the grandmaster.

Doubt it, If he didnt fear those who are waiting for him he would be back already.

edited to make it intelligible, I really must try harder to put words in the correct order

Edited January 10, 2012 by theblether

[hellodolly]

You have to wonder why this fool has yet to be whacked.

I think that is a real possibility if he comes back and he has finely realized not every one is his friend. Therefore the retreat.

Not sure how Yingluck could be unseated. The PT does not need any support. It would seem to me that one of two things will remove her one being the people setting up a big show against her and that aint going to happen.

Two would be the pressure on her breaks her. Even at that she would not want to lose face so she would stay on just to look good. And she does to a large percentage of the population.

[anterian]

I reckon the law of unintended consequences will come into play here, the longer he is out of the country the weaker his position will become. I reckon events will overtake him. He has too many well connected and seriously powerful bitter enemies in Thailand, at the risk of stating the obvious, thats why he is not here. These enemies wont disappear and he knows it.

"These enemies wont disappear and he knows it." But they will certainly die before him, he can afford to wait.

[backtonormal]

I reckon the law of unintended consequences will come into play here, the longer he is out of the country the weaker his position will become. I reckon events will overtake him. He has too many well connected and seriously powerful bitter enemies in Thailand, at the risk of stating the obvious, thats why he is not here. These enemies wont disappear and he knows it.

"These enemies wont disappear and he knows it." But they will certainly die before him, he can afford to wait.

Well the man is question is over ninety. Thaksin has been pencilled in for a job but thats for another time

[whybother]

Well the man is question is over ninety. Thaksin has been pencilled in for a job but thats for another time

I doubt that Thaksin would be in a position to take over that job.

[gamini]

He appears to have also seen that Yingluck is in no position to bring about an amnesty for him. If and when an opportunity arises to untangle his legal issues, he will have to make a tough decision on whether to keep his sister in the position of prime minister, or to replace her with someone who can resolve the amnesty issue.

Will Thaksin return?

Some wonder whether the former Thai PM really needs to come back, as he shows signs of being able to run the government perfectly well from abroad.

He has a grip over appointments to the cabinet and he sends an incessant stream of advice to ministers and members of parliament.

Continues:

http://gulfnews.com/...return-1.963635

The Economist - January 10, 2012

.

If the much hated Gen Thanom can return, why not Thaksin? Double standard?

You can not compare the two. Thanom repented and admitted his mistakes. He became religious and came back and went into seclusion. And who says he was hated like Taksin. Taksin wants back his power and money.

I knew Thanon and and quite liked him. It was really General Prapas who was the bad one

[animatic]

Well the man is question is over ninety. Thaksin has been pencilled in for a job but thats for another time

I doubt that Thaksin would be in a position to take over that job.

I also very much doubt this is a question of ONLY one or even two powerful individuals stacked against him.

He is solidly opposed by a great number of forward looking thinkers in the country, not strictly military or vested interests. He has not won his power through harnessing the best and brightest. If anything he has alienated most of them.

I also absolutely doubt the names people here might roll of off their tongue, or hinted at above, are the ones he should fear the most. Respected figureheads inspire by their presence and rectitude,

others act, and specific orders from above are not needed or expected.

Edited January 10, 2012 by animatic

[wxyz]

what, no call for a yingluck "no confidence vote"

[jambco984]

Thanks for another installment of the "Bash the Shinawatra's Show", Im by no means on there side but everyday is the same old same old reports of will he or wont he.

I understand you have to report something but its the same sort of guff each day.

Just saying

[animatic]

Thanks for another installment of the "Bash the Shinawatra's Show", Im by no means on there side but everyday is the same old same old reports of will he or wont he.

I understand you have to report something but its the same sort of guff each day.

Just saying

If it wasn't justified it wouldn't be happening.

[jambco984]

Thanks for another installment of the "Bash the Shinawatra's Show", Im by no means on there side but everyday is the same old same old reports of will he or wont he.

I understand you have to report something but its the same sort of guff each day.

Just saying

If it wasn't justified it wouldn't be happening.

All I mean is that the reporting is the same each day. It's like copy and paste previous article and add a little about the latest happenings. We all know the script but the Nation is anti Team Shinawatra that it floors the whole article.

As long as they can free the red shirts jailed for crimes then all is good in the world don't you think ;-)

Edited January 11, 2012 by jambco984

[anterian]

The media motto is if there is no news then create or invent some. Thaksin is a Godsend to the Thai media.

[rixalex]

The media motto is if there is no news then create or invent some. Thaksin is a Godsend to the Thai media.

Media only responds to public demand. The public has a hunger for Thaksin related stuff, and is that a surprise? It's not every day that an ex-PM becomes a convicted criminal and goes on the run. Until the day the whole Thaksin saga reaches some sort of a conclusion, it will always be headline news.

[anterian]

The media motto is if there is no news then create or invent some. Thaksin is a Godsend to the Thai media.

Media only responds to public demand. The public has a hunger for Thaksin related stuff, and is that a surprise? It's not every day that an ex-PM becomes a convicted criminal and goes on the run. Until the day the whole Thaksin saga reaches some sort of a conclusion, it will always be headline news.

I think the media and public demand form a positive feedback loop.

[tukkytuktuk]

Thaksin is a telecom tycoon who knows how to market his business ventures such as AIS and Puea Thai. A gifted entrepeneur who against all odds and with sheer brilliance, snatched victory from the democrats in the recent election. Has he retreated? or is this another wise move to take the spotlight off him while another plan of action takes flight.

My idea to the solution of Thaksins return would be a national referendum. I also think that not letting him return a free man will not help Thailands red and yellow shirts reconcile with one another. A re-trial of his case should be looked into, as the crime commited was questionablely politically motervated. Also any fall out with privy council members should be mended before his return, arguing and accusations get us nowhere soon, bury the hate and bring back the love, spirit and smile to Thailand.