Myanmar Reforms And Their Impact In Thailand,.

[Skorz]

What will the reformation of Burma mean for Thailand? I can think of a few things and non of them are good.

1. Cheap labour shortage as thousands of Burmeese return home from Thailand to work on domestic projects.

.

2. Huge competition for Thailand's main industry, namely tourism. Anybody who has studies a map of the Myanmar cannot fail to notice the hundreds of nspoilt islands and beaches, the virgin jungles and the countless possible pristine dive locations. Also potential for less (and more) scams and extortion, generally cheaper for tourists, undiscovered for backpackers...

What do you think?

[naboo]

1. An end to the terrible exploitation of Burmese workers in Thailand.

2. Some beautiful new destinations for holidays for everyone.

[DP25]

Burma will still be desperately poor. There will still be few jobs in Burma and they won't pay much. Some may go home, but most will stay. Laos and Cambodians come in huge numbers too and they don't have the same political situation. I think Thailand would rather they just come for a few years and work rather than coming as refugees who won't go back.

Tourism isn't remotely close to being the main industry. And it won't matter that much, people that go to Burma will still go here.

[zzaa09]

Don't become too excited. This so-called reform project is just rhetoric.

Nothing up their sleeves....

[folium]

Don't become too excited. This so-called reform project is just rhetoric.

Nothing up their sleeves....

While no one sane is expecting a rose strewn path to nirvana to unfold in Myanmar, these changes are gaining momentum and signify that the reactionary old guard military are losing the political battle.

I would be willing to bet that Myanmar will be a very different country by 2015 and with the ASEAN single market and the increasing likelihood of a single tourist visa for the region, LOS is going to have to up its game big time.

[Jingthing]

In history, some times things can change very fast. News today -- the USA will now appoint an ambassador to Burma encouraged by the reforms so far.

Edited January 14, 2012 by Jingthing

[itishothere]

Indeed things can move swiftly, if there is a desire for change. How many Burmese have seen the greener grass of Thailand and would like to have that in their own country. A lot.

Time for all the budding entrepreneurs over here (of all nationalities) to seriously look to see what is on offer and work out if they can get on the first rung of the ladder?

(Especially those that seem to hate this place! )

[craigt3365]

1. An end to the terrible exploitation of Burmese workers in Thailand.

2. Some beautiful new destinations for holidays for everyone.

We can only hope for the first. I'm also excited about the second one!

[nong38]

Its good news for the Burmese, looks like the future is getting brighter for them and I am happy for them. Iam told it is a beautiful country so maybe we will find out sooner rather than later.

If Burma is now going forward and they speak more English that may not be so good for Thailand, they dont sem to get this message, how important it is to speak English. I am lucky I am English, it is perhaps our biggest export, its spoken all over the world its not confined, Thais should really take notice of this.

I was on Koh Lan last year and rescued a mans possessions as the tide came in. He was Indian and we had a disscussion about the Empire, India, cricket and other things. As far as the future was concerned he said " We have one big advantage over the Chinese, we speak English."

It is often dismissed how important it is and when China prices itself out of the workplace, India is preparing to step in, where we go from there is the worry, well not mine I dont expect I will be here.

[CaptHaddock]

I was on Koh Lan last year and rescued a mans possessions as the tide came in. He was Indian and we had a disscussion about the Empire, India, cricket and other things. As far as the future was concerned he said " We have one big advantage over the Chinese, we speak English."

The former US ambassador to China claims that China will soon have more English speakers than the US.

"Indeed, although it is very difficult to measure the number of people who speak English in each country because of different definitions of proficiency, the British Council estimated in 2010 that India had anywhere between 55 and 350 million English speakers while a report published by Cambridge University Press estimates that China has 250 to 350 million English learners," the EF English Proficiency Index stated. "It appears that China is poised to surpass India in the number of English speakers in the coming years, if it has not already done so."

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2011/aug/19/jon-huntsman/jon-huntsman-says-more-english-speakers-china-unit/

[WinnieTheKhwai]

1. An end to the terrible exploitation of Burmese workers in Thailand.

2. Some beautiful new destinations for holidays for everyone.

We can only hope for the first. I'm also excited about the second one!

Absolutely.

Very strange and ill-informed OP by the way. I would hope most people realize that tourism is not 'Thailands main industry'.

If anything, a country benefits from having developed trading partners, and a mature consumer market nearby. What a cynical, negative outlook. (So unlike Thaivisa. )

Think of all the Thai products Burma will buy if/when they quit being a basket case country/economy.

[zzaa09]

Very strange and ill-informed OP by the way. I would hope most people realize that tourism is not 'Thailands main industry'.

In fact, tourism related doesn't amount to much - contrary to the popular and illusioned notion that tourism/travel is important and influential. Bogus.

The country wouldn't suffer if the tourist spigot were shot off tomorrow....a thought that some circles would glady welcome.

Nothing but destructive.

[theblether]

Very strange and ill-informed OP by the way. I would hope most people realize that tourism is not 'Thailands main industry'.

In fact, tourism related doesn't amount to much - contrary to the popular and illusioned notion that tourism/travel is important and influential. Bogus.

The country wouldn't suffer if the tourist spigot were shot off tomorrow....a thought that some circles would glady welcome.

Nothing but destructive.

Quite frankly it is ridiculous to try to undermine the value of tourism in Thailand. So what it may not be the biggest industry? But it certainly employs millions of people in gainful employment.

[StreetCowboy]

Very strange and ill-informed OP by the way. I would hope most people realize that tourism is not 'Thailands main industry'.

In fact, tourism related doesn't amount to much - contrary to the popular and illusioned notion that tourism/travel is important and influential. Bogus.

The country wouldn't suffer if the tourist spigot were shot off tomorrow....a thought that some circles would glady welcome.

Nothing but destructive.

Quite frankly it is ridiculous to try to undermine the value of tourism in Thailand. So what it may not be the biggest industry? But it certainly employs millions of people in gainful employment.

I think ZZaa is of the opinion that all foreigners are bad for Thailand and that everything Western is wicked and corrupt. But I think he should not extrapolate solely from our own experience - we may not all be like him.

SC

[folium]

Very strange and ill-informed OP by the way. I would hope most people realize that tourism is not 'Thailands main industry'.

In fact, tourism related doesn't amount to much - contrary to the popular and illusioned notion that tourism/travel is important and influential. Bogus.

The country wouldn't suffer if the tourist spigot were shot off tomorrow....a thought that some circles would glady welcome.

Nothing but destructive.

Drivel.

Tourism contributes on average 6% of Thailand's GDP and employs almost 10% of the workforce directly or indirectly.

As it comes under increasing regional pressure/competition LOS is diversifying into golf holidays, medical tourism, Buddhist tourism and anything that attracts Asian tourists.

If tourism stopped tomorrow every region of Thailand would be hard hit.

LOS has the highest proportion of its GDP coming from tourism compared to any other Asian nation.

[zzaa09]

If tourism stopped tomorrow every region of Thailand would be hard hit.

Such nonsense and whimsy.

Comments of this sort derive from ignorance and vacant knowledge of the society. Past and present.

[StreetCowboy]

If tourism stopped tomorrow every region of Thailand would be hard hit.

Such nonsense and whimsy.

Comments of this sort derive from ignorance and vacant knowledge of the society. Past and present.

So do you think that wihout all the money from tourists, Thailand would be better off, or worse off?

I suppose all the ladies working as chambermaids could replace the Burmese on the building sites...

Oh except the building sites are hotels....(that's construction, not tourism)

Well, they could replace the cambodians on sukhumvit road, if only there was anyone to buy stuff there (that's retail, not tourism).

SC

[folium]

If tourism stopped tomorrow every region of Thailand would be hard hit.

Such nonsense and whimsy.

Comments of this sort derive from ignorance and vacant knowledge of the society. Past and present.

Any evidence to back up your opinion that you would care to share with us? How would Thailand shrug off a loss of 6% of its GDP and 10% of its employment?

[DP25]

Very strange and ill-informed OP by the way. I would hope most people realize that tourism is not 'Thailands main industry'.

In fact, tourism related doesn't amount to much - contrary to the popular and illusioned notion that tourism/travel is important and influential. Bogus.

The country wouldn't suffer if the tourist spigot were shot off tomorrow....a thought that some circles would glady welcome.

Nothing but destructive.

Drivel.

Tourism contributes on average 6% of Thailand's GDP and employs almost 10% of the workforce directly or indirectly.

As it comes under increasing regional pressure/competition LOS is diversifying into golf holidays, medical tourism, Buddhist tourism and anything that attracts Asian tourists.

If tourism stopped tomorrow every region of Thailand would be hard hit.

LOS has the highest proportion of its GDP coming from tourism compared to any other Asian nation.

6% of GDP, if you buy the extremely optimistic TAT statistics of an average of almost $200 per person per day, and you ignore that the Thai GDP is massively undervalued. And it employs millions if you consider every employee of every business that ever sees a tourist as being employed in tourism, which TAT does. A business that has a handful customers being foriegners isn't really dependant on tourism

According to the most optimistic TAT numbers, tourism brings in almost $20 billion. Either way exports of goods last year were $230 billion and totally dwarf tourism, and then there is the huge domestic economy as well which is largely unrecorded. Exports grow at over 10% per year, they are growing more each year than tourism is worth in total. Tourism's importance declines each year.

A few places like Pattaya, Phuket, and Samui would be seriously screwed without tourism, but most would be fine.

It's not going anywhere though so it doesn't matter. Burma opening up might increase tourism as it leads more people to visit the region.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Burma opening up will bring MORE people through Thailand, just as it did when Vietnam and Cambodia opened up. You still gotta fly through Bangkok, people still want to spend some time on a nice beach with great facilities.

Another factor that we may all be overlooking could be China; currently there is a tiny amount of direct, overland traffic of people and goods between China and Northern Thailand. If Burma becomes a proper country and highways get built, then that's of HUGE importance to Thai provinces that border Burma, it would open up another potential route into China. Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai are geographically closer to Yunnan in China than they are to Bangkok.

It would be magnificent; we can only dream for now though.

Edited January 15, 2012 by WinnieTheKhwai

[baboon]

Maybe the `Official` Thailand could afford to shrug off tourism. Maybe yes, quite possibly. I doubt the unofficial economy could, though. All those houses built, all those cars bought for the villagers officials could not care less about? Will a Thai government of any colour want to pick up the slack?

[folium]

Burma opening up will bring MORE people through Thailand, just as it did when Vietnam and Cambodia opened up. You still gotta fly through Bangkok, people still want to spend some time on a nice beach with great facilities.

Another factor that we may all be overlooking could be China; currently there is a tiny amount of direct, overland traffic of people and goods between China and Northern Thailand. If Burma becomes a proper country and highways get built, then that's of HUGE importance to Thai provinces that border Burma, it would open up another potential route into China. Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai are geographically closer to Yunnan in China than they are to Bangkok.

It would be magnificent; we can only dream for now though.

Personally I am a big fan of our neighbour to the west and north (that's speaking from a travelling rather than political standpoint), and what a great place to combine travel and a visa run.

Get the funny feeling that we will all get a chance to visit Myanmar with a lot less palaver in the very near future as things are changing fast and people there are a lot more optimistic than they have been since the 1980's.

While it could still go seriously and nastily pear-shaped it is probably getting near the tipping point where change takes on a life of its own and becomes profound.

Think about it, some of the best beaches in the region around Thandwe are 300 miles due west of here, and if you want proper trekking in real mountains with tons of snow head for Putao, 500 miles north of here. Who knows some enterprising spark might sort out some skiing there. That could transform CM in to a regional centre rather than at the end of a cul de sac.

[chops]

I'm pretty excited. All I need is a luxury condo and a decent internet connection and I'm over there. Until that happens, I think I'll stick with Thailand and elsewhere.

[IMA_FARANG]

Huge competition for Thailand's main industry, namely tourism.

I'm sorry, I can't buy the idea that tourisim is Thailand's main industry.

Thailand exports a whole range of products expecially foods.

I, myself, have seen products in stores in such places as Puerto Rico, Turkey, Greece, and the Arabian Gulf countries clearly marked in English as either made or packaged/processed in Thailand.

Just thinking quickly I can recall these examples:

1, canned Tuna

2. Chicken

3. Dried perserved fruits (Mango for one)

4. And my 300 GB 3.5" USB plug-in computer drive which is carries the name of a well known Taiwanese company, but is stamped as being "assembled in Thailand".

But that's not the real point of this dicussion on Burma, is it?

Oh, and by the way...I just remembered...THAI coffee beans available in a Starbucks at the airport in San Francisco, U.S.A.

[samran]

I guess if you took away 6% of Thai GDP, then there would be some repercussions, but you'd expect the baht would then drop, making other export industries more competitive, so that would make up some of the GDP forgone from tourism.

But you'd have to be pretty unimaginative to think for a moment that would happen. Economies are dynamic.

As others have implied, opening up of Burma is likely to be complimentary for the Thai economy if anything.

For tourism, Thailand will act as a hub, collecting monies from those passing through on their way there - and back.

No doubt Thai business operators of all stripes will be there in the first wave likely repatriating those profits back to Thailand. Getting rid of sanctions will allow further oil and gas exploration. Thai companies such as PTT will likely be one of the main beneficiaries of this, and the export of cheap natural gas is likely to further increase, fuelling further expansion in Thailand.

[folium]

I guess if you took away 6% of Thai GDP, then there would be some repercussions, but you'd expect the baht would then drop, making other export industries more competitive, so that would make up some of the GDP forgone from tourism.

But you'd have to be pretty unimaginative to think for a moment that would happen. Economies are dynamic.

As others have implied, opening up of Burma is likely to be complimentary for the Thai economy if anything.

For tourism, Thailand will act as a hub, collecting monies from those passing through on their way there - and back.

No doubt Thai business operators of all stripes will be there in the first wave likely repatriating those profits back to Thailand. Getting rid of sanctions will allow further oil and gas exploration. Thai companies such as PTT will likely be one of the main beneficiaries of this, and the export of cheap natural gas is likely to further increase, fuelling further expansion in Thailand.

Next comes the fascinating part for Myanmar.

If these reforms continue and sanctions are lifted, the starting flag will come down on Myanmar's reintegration into the world economy.

The big difference is that China has happily filled the vacuum for the past couple of decades (similar to China's role in Sudan, Zimbabwe etc venturing where western "angels" fear to tread), and if you go to places like Mandalay the Chinese impact/dominance is very apparent. While the Thais have been busy cutting deals and looting the country under the radar, China has made a big commitment which has been welcomed and resented in almost equal measures by the Burmese population and military rulers.

This contradiction was highlighted by the recent suspension of the Myitsone Dam being built in Myanmar on the headwaters of the Irrawaddy by Chinese finance and Chinese companies.

Cynically the authorities might try and play a middle path between western interests and China, playing one off against another in their own interest. As every other Asian example has highlighted the development of Myanmar will result in a mix of inequality, injustice and ethnic preference together with more positive deveopments, but the bottom line is that almost any move is positive for a nation that has existed in brutal limbo for most of its post-1945 existence.

[theblether]

I guess if you took away 6% of Thai GDP, then there would be some repercussions, but you'd expect the baht would then drop, making other export industries more competitive, so that would make up some of the GDP forgone from tourism.

But you'd have to be pretty unimaginative to think for a moment that would happen. Economies are dynamic.

As others have implied, opening up of Burma is likely to be complimentary for the Thai economy if anything.

For tourism, Thailand will act as a hub, collecting monies from those passing through on their way there - and back.

No doubt Thai business operators of all stripes will be there in the first wave likely repatriating those profits back to Thailand. Getting rid of sanctions will allow further oil and gas exploration. Thai companies such as PTT will likely be one of the main beneficiaries of this, and the export of cheap natural gas is likely to further increase, fuelling further expansion in Thailand.

Next comes the fascinating part for Myanmar.

If these reforms continue and sanctions are lifted, the starting flag will come down on Myanmar's reintegration into the world economy.

The big difference is that China has happily filled the vacuum for the past couple of decades (similar to China's role in Sudan, Zimbabwe etc venturing where western "angels" fear to tread), and if you go to places like Mandalay the Chinese impact/dominance is very apparent. While the Thais have been busy cutting deals and looting the country under the radar, China has made a big commitment which has been welcomed and resented in almost equal measures by the Burmese population and military rulers.

This contradiction was highlighted by the recent suspension of the Myitsone Dam being built in Myanmar on the headwaters of the Irrawaddy by Chinese finance and Chinese companies.

Cynically the authorities might try and play a middle path between western interests and China, playing one off against another in their own interest. As every other Asian example has highlighted the development of Myanmar will result in a mix of inequality, injustice and ethnic preference together with more positive deveopments, but the bottom line is that almost any move is positive for a nation that has existed in brutal limbo for most of its post-1945 existence.

Quite right, and it is just one more example of the short sightedness of US foreign policy after the war. The US was too busy forcing the UK to disband the Empire prematurely, and didnt give many countries enough time to move into sustainable democracies.

[NxaiPan]

I guess if you took away 6% of Thai GDP, then there would be some repercussions, but you'd expect the baht would then drop, making other export industries more competitive, so that would make up some of the GDP forgone from tourism.

But you'd have to be pretty unimaginative to think for a moment that would happen. Economies are dynamic.

As others have implied, opening up of Burma is likely to be complimentary for the Thai economy if anything.

For tourism, Thailand will act as a hub, collecting monies from those passing through on their way there - and back.

No doubt Thai business operators of all stripes will be there in the first wave likely repatriating those profits back to Thailand. Getting rid of sanctions will allow further oil and gas exploration. Thai companies such as PTT will likely be one of the main beneficiaries of this, and the export of cheap natural gas is likely to further increase, fuelling further expansion in Thailand.

Next comes the fascinating part for Myanmar.

If these reforms continue and sanctions are lifted, the starting flag will come down on Myanmar's reintegration into the world economy.

The big difference is that China has happily filled the vacuum for the past couple of decades (similar to China's role in Sudan, Zimbabwe etc venturing where western "angels" fear to tread), and if you go to places like Mandalay the Chinese impact/dominance is very apparent. While the Thais have been busy cutting deals and looting the country under the radar, China has made a big commitment which has been welcomed and resented in almost equal measures by the Burmese population and military rulers.

This contradiction was highlighted by the recent suspension of the Myitsone Dam being built in Myanmar on the headwaters of the Irrawaddy by Chinese finance and Chinese companies.

Cynically the authorities might try and play a middle path between western interests and China, playing one off against another in their own interest. As every other Asian example has highlighted the development of Myanmar will result in a mix of inequality, injustice and ethnic preference together with more positive deveopments, but the bottom line is that almost any move is positive for a nation that has existed in brutal limbo for most of its post-1945 existence.

Quite right, and it is just one more example of the short sightedness of US foreign policy after the war. The US was too busy forcing the UK to disband the Empire prematurely, and didnt give many countries enough time to move into sustainable democracies.

post 1945 the UK was neither financially or by inclination able to hold the Empire together. The country was economically and mentally exhausted and any cost benefit analysis highlighted the futility of preserving what had always been an economic venture first and foremost.

As we have seen repeatedly, attempts to create sustainable democracies falter in the face of particular national characteristics and conditions. Myanmar will be no different. Name me a single sustainable democracy in Asia today. India probably comes closest but remains riven by religious, caste and ethnic divides, corruption is endemic and 30% of members of Parliament face criminal charges (most of which will probably never be heard in court).

It's quite likely that Myanmar will be an untidy collection of rent-seeking politicians, over-powerful soldiers, corruption at many levels, ethnic and religious discrimination, and heart-breaking over-development at the expense of Myanmar's natural and human heritage. Through all this reintegration with the global economy will help create a growing middle-class no different from any other SE Asian nation, and benefits will gradually trickle down to the majority peasant farmers. The latter will particularly benefit if Myanmar resumes its historic role as a major rice exporting nation.

[samran]

Quite right, and it is just one more example of the short sightedness of US foreign policy after the war. The US was too busy forcing the UK to disband the Empire prematurely, and didnt give many countries enough time to move into sustainable democracies.

Some convinient re-writing of history there me thinks. The Brits were broke.