Political And Economic Risks Could Lead To Govt Collapse: Thai Opinion

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WATCHDOG

Political and economic risks could lead to govt collapse

Nophakhun Limsamarnphun

BANGKOK: -- The Yingluck 2 administration is facing at least five key downside risks that could lead to its downfall.

On top of the list are attempts to amend the 2007 Constitution and Article 112 of the Criminal Code, better known as the lese majeste law, as both are politically explosive issues.

The rising cost of living, which has hit the grassroots population, and the labour movement's demand for the government to raise the daily minimum wage to Bt300 nationwide, as well as the private sector's growing concern over the government's inability to solve economic problems, are among the other major risks.

According to Assumption University's latest opinion survey on the government's performance during its first six months, nepotism is another concern cited by respondents.

The survey also shows that respondents are satisfied with the government's performance on cracking down on the narcotics trade, but they are unhappy about the rising cost of living due to the higher prices of cooking oil and gas as well as other necessity products.

Regarding the minimum wage, Thailand's Federation of Labour Organisations has warned that labour unions will stage a mass rally if the government fails to honor its election promise of raising the daily wage to Bt300 nationwide, up from the current Bt212-230 for Bangkok.

The rising cost of living and higher oil prices are wage earners' major concerns. The government will be in trouble if it cannot solve the people's basic economic problems.

Regarding the oil price, the government has floated the retail prices of diesel, gasoline and natural gas to reflect the world market prices, after facing a huge deficit because of subsidies. The bill on diesel subsidies has already cost the government a total of more than Bt130 billion in tax revenue after the excise tax on diesel was first suspended in April 2011.

The government remains reluctant to restore the tax due to fears of a public backlash. A higher diesel price will lead to higher transportation and production costs. Gasoline and natural gas prices are also on the rise due to the restructuring of energy prices coupled with the global oil price up-trend.

For natural gas, the retail price went up Bt0.50 per kilogram for the first time in many years to Bt9, affecting taxi-drivers and operators of other public vehicles. Prices will be increased by Bt0.5 per kilogram every month towards the year's end to reach the government's target price of Bt14.5 per kilogram. The hefty price adjustment is necessary to end multiple years of heavy subsidies to promote the use of natural gas as a substitute to gasoline and diesel.

For businesses and industries, higher energy prices as well as the Bt300 daily minimum wage will be the big challenges in terms of costs this year.

The big jump in wages will be enforced in April in Bangkok and six other provinces as part of the ruling Pheu Thai Party's July 3, 2011 election campaign pledge.

The government will also have to increase the minimum wage to Bt300 in other provinces nationwide in subsequent stages as the labour unions are likely to follow throught with their threat to stage mass protests if the policy is not implemented across the country as a whole.

-- The Nation 2012-01-28

[whybother]

"... could lead to its downfall."

Bad luck peoples. You're stuck with this government for another 3 years.

Posted with Thaivisa App http://apps.thaivisa.com

[siampolee]

The cauldron is simmering on the back burner and the Thaksin serving P.T.P. are going to find that that cauldron is going to boil over in the not too distant future.

The sad part is though, the Thai people in general will suffer not the political despots who are stirring the cauldron..

[JurgenG]

An other collapse ...

Yesterday it was the parliament that collapsed , later corrected to "end session prematurely"

But we have reason to concern. Yingluck is in free fall in the poll, approval rating dropping from 59% to 58%, while Abhisit records a magistral gain from 28% to 30% (with a margin of error of 3%).

According to Assumption University's latest opinion survey on the government's performance during its first six months, nepotism is another concern cited by respondents. They don't give the figures but I guess estimate the people concerned by "nepotism" to be around 4% with half of them no really sure of the meaning of the world... but it sounds scary !

[OzMick]

An other collapse ...

Yesterday it was the parliament that collapsed , later corrected to "end session prematurely"

But we have reason to concern. Yingluck is in free fall in the poll, approval rating dropping from 59% to 58%, while Abhisit records a magistral gain from 28% to 30% (with a margin of error of 3%).

According to Assumption University's latest opinion survey on the government's performance during its first six months, nepotism is another concern cited by respondents. They don't give the figures but I guess estimate the people concerned by "nepotism" to be around 4% with half of them no really sure of the meaning of the world... but it sounds scary !

By the results of the last election, it was slightly less than half that don't understand "nepotism"; a direct relfection of the lack of education that their party of choice is happy to maintain.