THAI TALK

If the big flood hits us again, don't blame the 'gurus'

Suthichai Yoon

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- First, there was a rumour that Dr Sumet Tantivejjakul was so frustrated with the Strategic Committee for Water Resources Management (SCWRM) that he wanted to call it quits.

Then Premier Yingluck Shinawatra, who chairs the much-heralded committee that was set up to prevent a recurrence of the devastating floods late last year, denied the report, saying that the well-known technocrat serving as adviser to the panel was staying on to help with this highly crucial mission.

Dr Sumet himself has sort of denied the story, saying that he is indeed still advising the committee. But he added, "I haven't attended some of the meetings because I am busy with other things."

That's not a straight denial, of course. But it doesn't speak well for a committee that has been touted as the country's highest hope for putting big floods behind us, once and for all.

Rumblings from the committee, however, have refused to go away. Most of the unofficial whispers from the committee members are mostly negative.

Then came Smith Thammasaroj, one of the "water gurus" on the committee, who pulled no punches in his public remarks on how difficult it has been working with the group. He made no secret of his belief that if things continue this way, the country will inevitably face another round of serious flooding by the middle of the year. Why? Things have at best been messy.

Smith said the committee had not come up with any concrete plan. "We don't know where the floodways might be and how we can prevent an overflow of water in the east, west and through Bangkok," he said.

Smith also complained that the Bt350 billion budget for the whole scheme was approved "within seconds" of the discussion - and there was hardly any input from the technocrats who had been asked to join because of their supposed expertise.

"Therefore, I believe we will face a flood in May or June, the magnitude of which will be more or less like the big one last year. While the Bumiphol Dam is about 90 per cent filled with water, we still haven't started to clear up canals and waterways in Bangok," the former Weather Bureau chief complained.

Has he quit? Like Dr Sumet, Smith issues a semi-denial: "I am staying on and I hope the politicians will listen more to technocrats like us," he said.

As if to rub salt into the wound, another member of the committee, former Irrigation Depertment director-general Pramote Maiklad, in a separate forum the following day, made a similar point: The public gets to hear lots of talk about what is being done, but, as an insider, he revealed that neither the master plan nor related action plans have been laid down with any clear detail so far.

His concern is that for short-term solutions, almost nothing has been learned from last year's major inundation.

"If we get the same amount of water this year, we will be flooded just like last year. That's because none of the embankments that were destroyed last time have been repaired to be ready to stand up to the next flood. A very good example is the Bangchomsri water gate, which was built along a path that blocks the natural water flow. If water rises again, it will collapse again," Promote said.

The 24-member committee apparently isn't working the way it is supposed to. But the huge budget has been approved in support of "the big picture" with no detailed action plans to ensure that the money is well spent.

The paradox is that this is a panel that comprises all of the country's top water experts, who are complaining that the politicians don't seem interested in listening to suggestions from them. Add to that the inevitable "clash of egos" among the "experts", and you have a recipe for a disaster waiting to happen.

If the "Big One" revisits us this year and the country drowns once again, you will know that it's not because we don't have a sufficient number of "gurus" or that we haven't gained enough knowledge from the catastrophic flood last year.

It's because our political leadership can't convince our creative minds that they are really up to the task.

-- The Nation 2012-02-02

Smith also complained that the Bt350 billion budget for the whole scheme was approved "within seconds" of the discussion

quote

"It's because our political leadership can't convince our creative minds that they are really up to the task."

Maybe they can't convince them because the creative minds are not up to the job.

The Dutch with a proven record of water management were turned down when they offered to help.

Why would the government accept recommendations from a newly formed set of experts with no track record to support them?

Also bear in mind that these so called experts can't even agree amongst them selves.

A start would be to clear all the existing channels and dredge them out where needed. If they are blocked by illegal buildings tear them down.

It dosen't take a expert to know that munch.

'

Then maybe I am asking to munch of the government.

Probably not enough corruption money in it for them.

Quelle surprise.......

The gurus get paid to advise the govt.

The gurus got it wrong.

The govt take the blame.

This is Thailand.

The gurus get paid to advise the govt.

The gurus got it wrong.

The govt take the blame.

This is Thailand.

Are you suggesting that this government is more knowledgable about irrigation than the experts it assembled - enough so to veto their recommendations?

I think it's obvious that the conversation went something like this:

How much will it cost?

...300 Billion Baht

All agree?

...Agreed.

What shall we do to fix the problem?

....Nobody is interested in fixing the problem

Just clean and dredge the canals and remove illegal obstructions, does it take an Einstein to understand this!

Same old, same old. This was not the first flood. The problem has been "studied" for decades with no concrete plan ever arrived at. It will be the same this time.

But the budget will be spent to the last Satang.

The King saw this problem coming long ago and already developed a solution for it. Its just up to the government to channel the water to the monkeys cheeks.

Oh thats right they built an airport there.

The gurus get paid to advise the govt.

The gurus got it wrong.

The govt take the blame.

This is Thailand.

No it is the same everywhere, the problem is the rain fell in the wrong place

The King saw this problem coming long ago and already developed a solution for it. Its just up to the government to channel the water to the monkeys cheeks.

Oh thats right they built an airport there.

Don't forget the factory sites built on monkeys cheeks as well.

I read in the last few days but forget where that in one place out of 43 factories 13 will relocate.

The gurus get paid to advise the govt.

The gurus got it wrong.

The govt take the blame.

This is Thailand.

Thr Gurus came along After the government got it Wrong.... Its all about that money.... 350 Squillions up for grabs...

I know it will never happen, but they need to get top experts in here from several developed nations and figure out how to fix the problem so it doesn't happen again. Thailand can't even keep the roads in decent shape. The internet shuts off when it rains. Stopping future flooding is a pipe dream.

The King saw this problem coming long ago and already developed a solution for it. Its just up to the government to channel the water to the monkeys cheeks.

Oh thats right they built an airport there.

Don't forget the factory sites built on monkeys cheeks as well.

I read in the last few days but forget where that in one place out of 43 factories 13 will relocate.

Lots more will be relocating too. They and their insurers are well aware that this dysfunctional state is simply not capable of preventing it all from happening again, no matter how many motor boats the science minister pledges will be on standby.

The King saw this problem coming long ago and already developed a solution for it. Its just up to the government to channel the water to the monkeys cheeks.

Oh thats right they built an airport there.

Don't forget the factory sites built on monkeys cheeks as well.

I read in the last few days but forget where that in one place out of 43 factories 13 will relocate.

To a location in Thailand or another country.

The King saw this problem coming long ago and already developed a solution for it. Its just up to the government to channel the water to the monkeys cheeks.

Oh thats right they built an airport there.

I agree. The king is 100% correct about this flood. He saw it coming.

Thai people should learn to listen from him.

Instead they fight each other (red & yellow).

The King saw this problem coming long ago and already developed a solution for it. Its just up to the government to channel the water to the monkeys cheeks.

Oh thats right they built an airport there.

Don't forget the factory sites built on monkeys cheeks as well.

I read in the last few days but forget where that in one place out of 43 factories 13 will relocate.

Lots more will be relocating too. They and their insurers are well aware that this dysfunctional state is simply not capable of preventing it all from happening again, no matter how many motor boats the science minister pledges will be on standby.

Forget the motor-boats, perhaps the redundant aircraft-carrier might finally have found a use ?

Better order a couple of spares !

The King saw this problem coming long ago and already developed a solution for it. Its just up to the government to channel the water to the monkeys cheeks.

Oh thats right they built an airport there.

Don't forget the factory sites built on monkeys cheeks as well.

I read in the last few days but forget where that in one place out of 43 factories 13 will relocate.

Lots more will be relocating too. They and their insurers are well aware that this dysfunctional state is simply not capable of preventing it all from happening again, no matter how many motor boats the science minister pledges will be on standby.

Forget the motor-boats, perhaps the redundant aircraft-carrier might finally have found a use ?

Better order a couple of spares !

It already has a use. As a tourist attraction to Sattahip.

I do not know if others viewed it, but Aljazeera had a small documentary on how bad this potential flood situation is for Thailand.

It aired on either the 31st January or on the 1st Feburary (I cannot recall). But a very interesting piece of journalism from outside of Thailand. The reporters were visiting Tuk and the dam areas, interviewing so called Thai experts and the dam management.

The Thais were saying, - no problem, we have everything under control, - even though the dam is 80% full.

They were asked if they were going to start releasing water to bring down the level of the dam in preparation to what could be another heavy rainfall year. Answer: "No need to do that yet".

Then it crossed to an "international expert" - I cannot recall from which country (possibly Holland), who politely said that the Thai's are asking for trouble. If they do not act now, - in many different ways, - (not just releasing water from the dam now), - there was going to be very serious problems this year - and beyond.

Many countries (not just Holland) have offered Thailand advise & help, - and have expressed their concern when Thailand has refused to accept such technical advise.

This is sad. Accepting help from experts - is a form of losing face?

What about losing face to the Thai people who - again will have to suffer, - perhaps much more than last time.

Getting this problem solved quickly should be a priority. If this happens again, Thailand as a country will lose in so many ways.

Tourism, business confidence, competence of the Government, - gone.

Now the world is watching, - and they are wondering what to do with the billions of baht?

We all know where most of that will go. Very sad for the Thai people/

To be honest from what I know about what they plan to do, I think they have learned a lot. According to their plan, they have to draw down Bhumibol to 45% level That means additional storage for flood control will be about 6 billion cubic meters. For Sirkit the traget will be 55% or about 4.5 to 5 Billion cubic meters. To me they have done a lot more than I can expect The question is whether they are on target? To answer this question we have to know when the deadline. From past data, I can be sure that the deadline will be by 1st Oct 2012. These two reservoirs have to have what have been planned for them. Currently, the two reservoirs are still holding about 90% storage levels, 8 months to go. I think there are on target. Nothing much to worry about whether or not they have ebough time. You better worry about the don't be serious tio execute their plan.

But then, if they rely only on these two reservoirs alone in their planning, you can expect the same raifall density as last years can propogate f;lood about 30% smaller than the last year. These two reservoirs based on my study contribute only 30% of the rainfall dendity for Chao Pharaya catchment....