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Thai Army Has Veto Power Over Key Issues: Robert Amsterdam


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The military budget signed off in 2011 is now Bt170 billion (1.7% of GDP), and has seen a steady rate of increase as it has been agreed to rise to 2% of GDP by 2014 (pre the 2006 coup it was 0.13% of GDP).

In 2000 it was 1.4% in 2005 it was 1.8%.

http://www.indexmund...aspx?c=th&v=132

The education budget is far bigger.

I stand corrected. I have just rechecked the numbers and it was 1.1% pre the 2006 coup.

Check out the graph below which highlights the spike in defence spending post the 2006 coup and how Thailand stacks up with some of its ASEAN neighbours

.http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=wb-wdi&met=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&idim=country:THA&dl=en&hl=en&q=thailand+gdp+graph#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=ms_mil_xpnd_gd_zs&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=country&idim=country:THA:KHM:VNM:IDN:PHL&ifdim=country&hl=en&dl=en

Sorry having real problems attaching images...

Edited by folium
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Folium, military withdrew from politics after 1992 debacle, which happened two decades ago and sixty years since overthrowing absolute monarchy, you are implying that they were ruling the country for seventy years, all the way up to Thaksin. This is simply not true.

Once again, a couple of guys landing cushy jobs at state enterprises does not equal controlling the government, assuming they are still even there. Those are not the highest paid jobs anyway.

The well rehearsed threats of another military coup is a specialty of Jatuporn, he declares an imminent coup every two months, and everybody knows he is just talking nonsense.

The fact is that the army realizes that they can't run the country anymore, even if they take the power they won't be able to keep it or exercise it, they just don't have the competence.

I suggest you add Malaysia and Singapore to your military spending chart, that would put Thailand at number six in pre-coup years in the region. Even Cambodia was spending more then.

All in all, there's still no evidence other than "everybody knows" that the current government is under military thumb. This is still nonsense.

Btw, who changed the defense minister in the recent reshuffle? Who appointed Thaksin's mate instead? The military? They are either suicidal or the power of control lies not in the barracks but in Dubai.

You won't hear about it from Amsterdam, though, unless you pay him, of course.

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I didn't need this confirmation, I already gathered as much. Still trying to ignore some posts
smile.png

Now you know for sure Rubl.

If you ignore any Posts, for heaven's sake ignore CalgaryII

It will be much better for your Political Comfort Zone.

It is very unsettling to have one's conclusions challenged.

The problem is though, the likes of Robert Amsterdam and his fanboy's simply re-inforce my conclusions.

Calgary is a fake red, he is planted here by the yellow shirts to make us believe the reds fit the stereotypes of the amart propoganda machine.

Personally I think he comes from a third world banana republic and is having a tough time adjusting to freedom.

He needs the yoke of government so he is trying to bring Thaksin back to tell him what to do and not do.

It is pretty obvious that if it is not red shirt propaganda he ignores it.

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Reading these posts one sees exactly what's wrong: people pick sides and then stop reasoning.

You have the anti-TS crowd who immediately discount anything RA says, just because he's on TS' payroll.

The fact alone makes anything he says irrelevant, for the anti-TS crowd.

I'm neither pro nor anti TS, so I do consider what he says about the army.

Everybody with half a brain knows what he says is correct.

The army do run things here, they're like a separate institution.

You have a commander in chief who barks about how a certain issue is a non issue, as if he has the final say over it.

How's that for democracy?

Sure the guy can give his opinion like any other citizen, but he basically orders everybody to stop talking about it.

Ask any Thai and they will tell you the army is really in charge.

It's a fact of life, as they say.

Just giving my opinion, it's supposed to be a democracy after all!

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Everybody with half a brain knows what he says is correct...

Maybe that's the problem - having half a brain.

Whether you are pro- or anti- TS is irrelevant, Amsterdam is paid by Thaksin to deliver certain messages, he is not an independent observer and he does not publish his own opinions.

Why is this obsession with giving him attention? It's like asking people to shag sheep: "They are not meant for sex with humans" - "But what about how it feels?"

Why is this obsession with living in a make believe world? There's no shortage of people in Thailand who stand by their views, why waste time on some paid spinmaster? Are some people really that desperate that they cling to anything, absolutely anything that affirms their views?

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Reading these posts one sees exactly what's wrong: people pick sides and then stop reasoning.

You have the anti-TS crowd who immediately discount anything RA says, just because he's on TS' payroll.

The fact alone makes anything he says irrelevant, for the anti-TS crowd.

I'm neither pro nor anti TS, so I do consider what he says about the army.

Everybody with half a brain knows what he says is correct.

The army do run things here, they're like a separate institution.

You have a commander in chief who barks about how a certain issue is a non issue, as if he has the final say over it.

How's that for democracy?

Sure the guy can give his opinion like any other citizen, but he basically orders everybody to stop talking about it.

Ask any Thai and they will tell you the army is really in charge.

It's a fact of life, as they say.

Just giving my opinion, it's supposed to be a democracy after all!

a finely balanced post

- anti-TS crowd dismissing Robert A.'s statement

- poster arminbkk is neither pro/anti

- even half brains know Robert A. is right with info on what 'everybody' knows.

Well as I wrote before, when Robert A. said 'PM Yingluck is not in control. We all know' he was speaking the truth. Ask k. T for confirmation if you want dry.png

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[...]

I'm neither pro nor anti TS, so I do consider what he says about the army.

Everybody with half a brain knows what he says is correct.

The army do run things here, they're like a separate institution. [...]

You are the ideal recipient for Mr Amsterdam's little essays.

It doesn't bother you, that this self acclaimed "human rights lawyer" is Thaksins paid propaganda minister.

It doesn't bother you that his statements are therefore as credible as a fast food commercial.

It doesn't bother you that Mr Amsterdam's essays are nothing more than a few fitting allegations with a dramatic conclusion, while he carefully avoids all facts that would prove his point of view to be nothing more than finest cattle manure.

"Everybody with half a brain knows what he says is correct." I agree with you on that, however everybody with one complete brain - and who makes prudent use of it - knows that it isn't.

And to elaborate further on the "half a brain", it is pretty obvious, as the quality of Mr. Amsterdam's essays and blogs clearly shows, that he, too, is only using half a brain to write them, despite being paid full-time by Khun Thaksin.

edit: typo

Edited by MikeOboe57
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Amsterdam is more than just a spin doctor, ........." According to his official biography, "Amsterdam has a distinguished track record of serving clients in shareholder disputes, corporate restructuring, fraud and asset recovery, regulatory and tax issues, complex commercial arbitration, and multi-jurisdictional litigation. He is also frequently sought out as a political risk advisor and strategic counsel for companies seeking to open new markets." Its all just part of plan B.

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The fact is that the army realizes that they can't run the country anymore, even if they take the power they won't be able to keep it or exercise it, they just don't have the competence.

True enough but they can still stop anyone else in particular they view as a threat from running it too.

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Folium, military withdrew from politics after 1992 debacle, which happened two decades ago and sixty years since overthrowing absolute monarchy, you are implying that they were ruling the country for seventy years, all the way up to Thaksin. This is simply not true.

Once again, a couple of guys landing cushy jobs at state enterprises does not equal controlling the government, assuming they are still even there. Those are not the highest paid jobs anyway.

The well rehearsed threats of another military coup is a specialty of Jatuporn, he declares an imminent coup every two months, and everybody knows he is just talking nonsense.

The fact is that the army realizes that they can't run the country anymore, even if they take the power they won't be able to keep it or exercise it, they just don't have the competence.

I suggest you add Malaysia and Singapore to your military spending chart, that would put Thailand at number six in pre-coup years in the region. Even Cambodia was spending more then.

All in all, there's still no evidence other than "everybody knows" that the current government is under military thumb. This is still nonsense.

Btw, who changed the defense minister in the recent reshuffle? Who appointed Thaksin's mate instead? The military? They are either suicidal or the power of control lies not in the barracks but in Dubai.

You won't hear about it from Amsterdam, though, unless you pay him, of course.

How many generals on the PTP cabinet?

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Interested to note that the issue of the military hierarchy rent seeking via the process of arms procurement is apparently too problematic to discuss. But of course we have been reassured that there is no money to be made in the military today.

And of course the military retired from politics having killed too many citizens in 1992. Thus the notion that characters such as Prayuth exert any influence on this country is frankly implausible.

Actually the debate over the Nittirat group and their proposed constitutional amendments shines a light on many aspects of power in this country.

Previous posters have mentioned the issue of equality before the law, or how the lack of it plagues Thailand. At present by means of a special clause in the constitution any acts carried out during a coup by the instigators, cannot be deemed illegal and therefore no criminal charges can be brought against those who usurp power.

Article 15 of the proposed constitutional amendment covers this bizarre anomaly (see below and taken from a longer piece at:

http://asiancorrespo...titution-draft/

15. Defence against Usurpation

Create a separate section in the new constitution concerning the “Nullification of the Legal Effects of a Military Coup d’Etat”, whose content is drawn from Nitirat’s proposal concerning the nullification of the legal effects of the 2006 coup.

Citizens have the right and duty to use any means to resist against attempts to take away the supreme power from the people (usurpation).

Specify that usurpation is a criminal act, and that after the supreme power of the people has been returned to the people, the usurpers must be prosecuted. Allow the period of prescription to start when the supreme power has been returned to the people.

Perhaps this explains why Prayuth has been so outspoken (and which would have seen him fired from his post in any normal country) on this matter and by wrapping up the constitutional amendments with Article 112 lese majeste reform, tries to conceal his desire to keep military coups legal.

What other country has legalized military coups? The military has no power.....?? Not only has it exercised this power 18 times against both the monarchy and civilian governments but can do so without any legal implications.

This is the linchpin of the military's continued presence in the power structure of Thailand. Until this article is introduced as part of the constitution they can do as they wish and all the respective players know this. Hence the present government's dramatic u turn in regard to its appetite for constitutional reform. Probably another opportunity lost to bring some semblance of normality to Thailand.

An absence of accountability gives almost limitless power whether that concerns staging coups, padding procurement contracts or extra-judicial killings in the southern provinces. Time to put the military genie back in its bottle because who "guards us from the guardians"?

Also it is not just the simple red/yellow, TS/military debate. Under the last government the border clash with Cambodia underlined the fact that the army could decide to wage war on its terms and timescale, and with little regard for the government of the day, whatever its colour.

All very nice, some good discussion points, but there's two sides to this coin.

In many countries elected officials have morals, the vast majority in Thailand don't and like it or not until we see a strong picture of respect for the law and equal application for the law, and until we see a general picture leaders who are role models then there is a need for a watchdof / a relief valve, or whatever you like to call it.

Comparison of Thailand to other countries is fine, but it's not fine to 'demand' that Thailand should / must look like the rest of the world, or must look like the 'first world' countries, many of which are not necessarily good role models.

I'll say it again; I shudded to think where Thailand would be today if the 2006 coup had not happened. The possible / probable scenario, today, if he had not been removed is nothing less then frightening.

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Interested to note that the issue of the military hierarchy rent seeking via the process of arms procurement is apparently too problematic to discuss. But of course we have been reassured that there is no money to be made in the military today.

And of course the military retired from politics having killed too many citizens in 1992. Thus the notion that characters such as Prayuth exert any influence on this country is frankly implausible.

Actually the debate over the Nittirat group and their proposed constitutional amendments shines a light on many aspects of power in this country.

Previous posters have mentioned the issue of equality before the law, or how the lack of it plagues Thailand. At present by means of a special clause in the constitution any acts carried out during a coup by the instigators, cannot be deemed illegal and therefore no criminal charges can be brought against those who usurp power.

Article 15 of the proposed constitutional amendment covers this bizarre anomaly (see below and taken from a longer piece at:

http://asiancorrespo...titution-draft/

15. Defence against Usurpation

Create a separate section in the new constitution concerning the “Nullification of the Legal Effects of a Military Coup d’Etat”, whose content is drawn from Nitirat’s proposal concerning the nullification of the legal effects of the 2006 coup.

Citizens have the right and duty to use any means to resist against attempts to take away the supreme power from the people (usurpation).

Specify that usurpation is a criminal act, and that after the supreme power of the people has been returned to the people, the usurpers must be prosecuted. Allow the period of prescription to start when the supreme power has been returned to the people.

Perhaps this explains why Prayuth has been so outspoken (and which would have seen him fired from his post in any normal country) on this matter and by wrapping up the constitutional amendments with Article 112 lese majeste reform, tries to conceal his desire to keep military coups legal.

What other country has legalized military coups? The military has no power.....?? Not only has it exercised this power 18 times against both the monarchy and civilian governments but can do so without any legal implications.

This is the linchpin of the military's continued presence in the power structure of Thailand. Until this article is introduced as part of the constitution they can do as they wish and all the respective players know this. Hence the present government's dramatic u turn in regard to its appetite for constitutional reform. Probably another opportunity lost to bring some semblance of normality to Thailand.

An absence of accountability gives almost limitless power whether that concerns staging coups, padding procurement contracts or extra-judicial killings in the southern provinces. Time to put the military genie back in its bottle because who "guards us from the guardians"?

Also it is not just the simple red/yellow, TS/military debate. Under the last government the border clash with Cambodia underlined the fact that the army could decide to wage war on its terms and timescale, and with little regard for the government of the day, whatever its colour.

All very nice, some good discussion points, but there's two sides to this coin.

In many countries elected officials have morals, the vast majority in Thailand don't and like it or not until we see a strong picture of respect for the law and equal application for the law, and until we see a general picture leaders who are role models then there is a need for a watchdof / a relief valve, or whatever you like to call it.

Comparison of Thailand to other countries is fine, but it's not fine to 'demand' that Thailand should / must look like the rest of the world, or must look like the 'first world' countries, many of which are not necessarily good role models.

I'll say it again; I shudded to think where Thailand would be today if the 2006 coup had not happened. The possible / probable scenario, today, if he had not been removed is nothing less then frightening.

Quite agree with the first part. Equality before the law is fundamental to stemming corruption. If the "big boys" are seen to be getting away with it, the lesser fry just follow their lead etc. As ever discipline and leadership have to come from the top and if there is any justification re today's hierarchy in Thailand, the military needs to show that its position is justified and it puts itself in a legally accountable position and under civilian control (as per the Nittirat suggestions).

I have not demanded that Thailand must look like any other country, let alone a first world country. I have referred to Turkey as Erdogan there has done a skilful job in extracting the Turkish military from a role not that dissimilar to here. Despite the warnings of imminent collapse if the "guardians of the nation" were stood down from their self-appointed role, the country has actually benefited from the removal of such a crude and partisan "safety valve" and as more details of their nefarious activities come to light more court cases are instigated and military officers face their day in court for alleged crimes. Were Thailand to follow a similar route it would be to the long run advantage of the vast majority of its inhabitants.

Also the strategy and overall conduct of foreign policy and security must be in civilian control/oversight. The continuing chaos, carnage and blundering in the southern provinces make the possibility of a military solution increasingly remote. As with most counter-insurgency operations there can only be a political solution with the military holding the ring until negotiations are completed. Having the military riding roughshod over the government re the Phreah Vihear farce last year again underlines that the military has to be kept in check and cannot be allowed to drive policy for whatever reason.

Like it or not elected governments are the price you pay for democracy (albeit in its usual imperfect forms). I have a low opinion of most politicians in whatever form/party or colour they take but if you don't like them, do the job yourself (citizenship allowing) or vote for someone you think would do a better job.

In a nutshell, equality before the law and an independent, empowered judiciary is the only hope for long term justice and progress. Any criminal act by any civilian or military person must carry legal implications.

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I didn't need this confirmation, I already gathered as much. Still trying to ignore some posts
smile.png

Now you know for sure Rubl.

If you ignore any Posts, for heaven's sake ignore CalgaryII

It will be much better for your Political Comfort Zone.

It is very unsettling to have one's conclusions challenged.

The problem is though, the likes of Robert Amsterdam and his fanboy's simply re-inforce my conclusions.

Calgary is a fake red, he is planted here by the yellow shirts to make us believe the reds fit the stereotypes of the amart propoganda machine.

Personally I think he comes from a third world banana republic and is having a tough time adjusting to freedom.

He needs the yoke of government so he is trying to bring Thaksin back to tell him what to do and not do.

It is pretty obvious that if it is not red shirt propaganda he ignores it.

By his own admission he comes from a country where he was a Labour (check the spelling - means UK or Australia) negotiator; you on the other hand sound like you are a Canadian immigrant from somewhere else .... care to tell us?

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Folium, you can list all kinds of faults with Thai military but controlling Yingluck's government is just not one of them, no matter what other issues you have with it.

Meantime in a separate thread Jatuporn cried about imminent coup again.

"Everybody knows", right.

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[...]

I'm neither pro nor anti TS, so I do consider what he says about the army.

Everybody with half a brain knows what he says is correct.

The army do run things here, they're like a separate institution. [...]

You are the ideal recipient for Mr Amsterdam's little essays.

It doesn't bother you, that this self acclaimed "human rights lawyer" is Thaksins paid propaganda minister.

It doesn't bother you that his statements are therefore as credible as a fast food commercial.

It doesn't bother you that Mr Amsterdam's essays are nothing more than a few fitting allegations with a dramatic conclusion, while he carefully avoids all facts that would prove his point of view to be nothing more than finest cattle manure.

"Everybody with half a brain knows what he says is correct." I agree with you on that, however everybody with one complete brain - and who makes prudent use of it - knows that it isn't.

And to elaborate further on the "half a brain", it is pretty obvious, as the quality of Mr. Amsterdam's essays and blogs clearly shows, that he, too, is only using half a brain to write them, despite being paid full-time by Khun Thaksin.

edit: typo

Do other posters get as bored as I do with the idiotic comments above that add nothing to the debate and merely incite further emotional, irrational responses from those in totally entrenched positions?

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Amsterdam being a paid spinmaster has nothing to do with anybody's entrenched positions. It's just a fact of life.

Yeah, pointing it out gets repetitive after a while.

No one can show any evidence in support of his assertion, the thread is dead, as in a "dead horse". People only talk about some off-topic generalities and that's where entrenched positions rise and shine.

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Amsterdam being a paid spinmaster has nothing to do with anybody's entrenched positions. It's just a fact of life.

Yeah, pointing it out gets repetitive after a while.

No one can show any evidence in support of his assertion, the thread is dead, as in a "dead horse". People only talk about some off-topic generalities and that's where entrenched positions rise and shine.

I think that makes my point as well as I tried to; this like most of these threads leads to a stalemate where the most voluble believe that they have won a debate whereas it is generally just little more than those with a viewpoint different to the majority becomng silent because of their opponents' numbers and vocifernousness.

Try to look at the number of posts which have little to do with the OP and tell me (a complete neutral)I am wrong.

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No, you are right, generally speaking.

Yet there are facts that are hard to ignore no matter what viewpoint you subscribe to. No one tried to refute Amsterdam's bias, for example. Some tried to prove that military indeed controls the country but came out short - TMB, appointments made five years ago, arms procurement - none of this supports Amsterdam's idea, only provides fodder for endless argument on the role of military in Thai history.

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No, you are right, generally speaking.

Yet there are facts that are hard to ignore no matter what viewpoint you subscribe to. No one tried to refute Amsterdam's bias, for example. Some tried to prove that military indeed controls the country but came out short - TMB, appointments made five years ago, arms procurement - none of this supports Amsterdam's idea, only provides fodder for endless argument on the role of military in Thai history.

And if the Thai military was as bad as all that,

why is there not a General as PM and the cabinet full of the Thai military.

The kool aid drinkers fail on so many levels, they should just down the kool aid now.

Edited by wxyz
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Amsterdam being a paid spinmaster has nothing to do with anybody's entrenched positions. It's just a fact of life.

Yeah, pointing it out gets repetitive after a while.

No one can show any evidence in support of his assertion, the thread is dead, as in a "dead horse". People only talk about some off-topic generalities and that's where entrenched positions rise and shine.

What does become repetitive and frankly boring is the endless character assasination of Amsterdam without dealing with his points - many of which are very pertinent (though I think he has lost it slightly over Abhisit).We know he is Thaksin's PR man.That doesn't mean his arguments and evidence should be dismissed out of turn.The Thai Government retains similar PR firms - should their arguments be dismissed out of turn also? A little earlier in this thread there was a very encouraging and lively discussion of substance (and without malice) between Scorecard and Folium on Amsterdam's position.We need more of that kind of debate.

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Folium, you can list all kinds of faults with Thai military but controlling Yingluck's government is just not one of them, no matter what other issues you have with it.

Meantime in a separate thread Jatuporn cried about imminent coup again.

"Everybody knows", right.

Ok, is the "Brunei Declaration" a total fabrication? Is it utterly implausible that the 3 groups allegedly represented at the series of meetings in Brunei and Dubai actually worked out a compromise that would keep all 3 happy? If it is a total fabrication is it not strange how things have panned out since the election?

google Shawn Crispin Asia Times Online for his June 30th 2011 piece for more details. ATOL, which you probably know, was set up by Sondhi Limthongkul, leading light in PAD and no shrinking violet in terms of supporting the military.

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Folium, you can list all kinds of faults with Thai military but controlling Yingluck's government is just not one of them, no matter what other issues you have with it.

Meantime in a separate thread Jatuporn cried about imminent coup again.

"Everybody knows", right.

Ok, is the "Brunei Declaration" a total fabrication? Is it utterly implausible that the 3 groups allegedly represented at the series of meetings in Brunei and Dubai actually worked out a compromise that would keep all 3 happy? If it is a total fabrication is it not strange how things have panned out since the election?

google Shawn Crispin Asia Times Online for his June 30th 2011 piece for more details. ATOL, which you probably know, was set up by Sondhi Limthongkul, leading light in PAD and no shrinking violet in terms of supporting the military.

On 'Brunei Declaration':

http://web1.iseas.edu.sg/?p=4186

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