Pound/Baht

[chiang mai]

British ex-pats will have noticed that the Pound is getting stronger and I've been waiting for the inevitable thread that asks, how high will it go - so before the question gets asked, I don't know is the answer and neither does any one else! And the second unasked question that's worth answering is wehn will the BOE raise rates, the market speculators have brought that date forward from early 2015 to November 2014 so no point in holding your breath.

But there might be an opportunity soon for those wishing to buy Baht, the fact that the BOE has halted QE and the increased risk in Europe has made the Pound a partial benificiary of "safe haven" status, how much the BOT allows the Baht to weaken on this exchange is uncertain, but I would guess we may well see 50+ soon, not bad if you need to buy Baht is my view.

[bangkokrick]

The pound does indeed appear to be strengthening against other major currencies. It is the strongest it has been for the last 19 months against the Euro and more importantly for us the US dollar. Check the link

http://foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com/

[CharlieH]

Probably see a large transfer of £ into baht by expats when it hits the magic 50.

I know I for one will be moving money when it does.

Edited April 20, 2012 by CharlieH

[nong38]

I think this might be the Olympics effect so should be ok for a few months of rises Should England also beat South Africa at cricket well over the moon, the rate rate will up no end what!

[chiang mai]

I think this might be the Olympics effect so should be ok for a few months of rises Should England also beat South Africa at cricket well over the moon, the rate rate will up no end what!

The Olympics effect! You need to stay off the sauce so early in the day my lad!

[nong38]

I think this might be the Olympics effect so should be ok for a few months of rises Should England also beat South Africa at cricket well over the moon, the rate rate will up no end what!

The Olympics effect! You need to stay off the sauce so early in the day my lad!

I am not allowed medicinal compounds until after the sun is well over the yard arm! The Qlympics must be milked for all its worth, they have been milking me for a few years I can tell, A Walnut Whip a day Ken said, utter Tosh Its a good feel good factor like when we are doing well at sport ( or my shares are going up! Premium Bond win, Dividend recieved), it is good to see things moving in the right direction, the best I can remember was 2 or 3 years ago in July I think it was just over 56.

I see the IMF have been to see Dave about more money for the Eurozone bunglers, until they sort out the basic structure it will not be dealt with, on the other hand the Euro will go down and the £ up ( the $ can rise to ).

[PattayaPhom]

Its been the highest since late 2009, then when the BOE see it rising, one of the muppets that works there says something negative and it goes down again, last week was almost 49.5...yes the Olympics may have a slight effect..but QE has now officially been abandoned and they are at last concerned about rampant inflation...so rate rises etc can be expected sooner rather than later...dont forget, Sterling went from 70 down to 45 within a few months, the reverse can be the same.

[chiang mai]

I love optimists but prefer realists, the very best you can hope for at this stage of the procedings is low 50's, if you dig into it you'll see that 70 baht was unnatuarlly high and unsupportable hence, you will never, ever see 70's again.

[Chivas]

I love optimists but prefer realists, the very best you can hope for at this stage of the procedings is low 50's, if you dig into it you'll see that 70 baht was unnatuarlly high and unsupportable hence, you will never, ever see 70's again.

Well I'm inclined to agree however it only takes the Baht to weaken to 35 and the Sterling to strengthen to $2.00 and we end back at 70......

Only being the operative word !!

[Naam]

does anybody still remember the 'learned' clowns who forecasted here in early 2009 GBP @ USD 1.20 or even lower and caused panic among the Brits in Thailand?

[thenervoussurgeon]

I love optimists but prefer realists, the very best you can hope for at this stage of the procedings is low 50's, if you dig into it you'll see that 70 baht was unnatuarlly high and unsupportable hence, you will never, ever see 70's again.

never say never ,but i would be happy at 55 to the pound, still transfered some today at 49.50 as i work on 48 its a win.

Edited April 20, 2012 by thenervoussurgeon

[PattayaPhom]

I love optimists but prefer realists, the very best you can hope for at this stage of the procedings is low 50's, if you dig into it you'll see that 70 baht was unnatuarlly high and unsupportable hence, you will never, ever see 70's again.

XE is showing almost 50 already..if you think 70 was unaturally high, what was 88!!!........we could also say 47 is unaturally low due to the muppets at the BOE

Edited April 20, 2012 by PattayaPhom

[chiang mai]

I love optimists but prefer realists, the very best you can hope for at this stage of the procedings is low 50's, if you dig into it you'll see that 70 baht was unnatuarlly high and unsupportable hence, you will never, ever see 70's again.

XE is showing almost 50 already..if you think 70 was unaturally high, what was 88!!!........we could also say 47 is unaturally low due to the muppets at the BOE

Do your research, an 88 Baht Pound was just prior to the 1997 Asian crash! As far as 70 is concerned: that was at a time when the Pound was overvalued on world markets by as much 15%, it was an anomaly and everyone knew it, well most did!! It can be argued that the Pound is now undervalued relative to THB but then there's the question of what is the fair rate or norm. Some would argue based on fundamentals that the correct rate is 35, that at least is closer to the long term norm when the rate was pegged. Under no circumstances however is the fair rate anywhere close to 70.

[chiang mai]

I love optimists but prefer realists, the very best you can hope for at this stage of the procedings is low 50's, if you dig into it you'll see that 70 baht was unnatuarlly high and unsupportable hence, you will never, ever see 70's again.

Well I'm inclined to agree however it only takes the Baht to weaken to 35 and the Sterling to strengthen to $2.00 and we end back at 70......

Only being the operative word !!

That would be a mighty strong Pound, you sure we're talking about Pounds Sterling!

Edited April 20, 2012 by chiang mai

[exeter]

I love optimists but prefer realists, the very best you can hope for at this stage of the procedings is low 50's, if you dig into it you'll see that 70 baht was unnatuarlly high and unsupportable hence, you will never, ever see 70's again.

I remember the 70's cant beat a bit of ABBA!

[exeter]

I love optimists but prefer realists, the very best you can hope for at this stage of the procedings is low 50's, if you dig into it you'll see that 70 baht was unnatuarlly high and unsupportable hence, you will never, ever see 70's again.

XE is showing almost 50 already..if you think 70 was unaturally high, what was 88!!!........we could also say 47 is unaturally low due to the muppets at the BOE

QE is like Andrews Liver Salts only with money, my money going down the pan and yours

[Naam]

I love optimists but prefer realists, the very best you can hope for at this stage of the procedings is low 50's, if you dig into it you'll see that 70 baht was unnatuarlly high and unsupportable hence, you will never, ever see 70's again.

XE is showing almost 50 already..if you think 70 was unaturally high, what was 88!!!........we could also say 47 is unaturally low due to the muppets at the BOE

Do your research, an 88 Baht Pound was just prior to the 1997 Asian crash! As far as 70 is concerned: that was at a time when the Pound was overvalued on world markets by as much 15%, it was an anomaly and everyone knew it, well most did!! It can be argued that the Pound is now undervalued relative to THB but then there's the question of what is the fair rate or norm. Some would argue based on fundamentals that the correct rate is 35, that at least is closer to the long term norm when the rate was pegged. Under no circumstances however is the fair rate anywhere close to 70.

i'm sure you wanted to say "after the 1997 crash". just before the crash the Pound fetched a mere 35 Baht and during the years before GBP THB depended exclusively on the hugely fluctuating GBP USD rate because THB was 100% pegged to the USD.

example: GBP THB end 1990 = 50, summer 1991 = 40, beginning 1993 = 35

[Naam]

looking back and taking 35 years of personal experience into consideration i'd say "never say never when it concerns exchange rates!"

Edited April 20, 2012 by Naam

[chiang mai]

I love optimists but prefer realists, the very best you can hope for at this stage of the procedings is low 50's, if you dig into it you'll see that 70 baht was unnatuarlly high and unsupportable hence, you will never, ever see 70's again.

XE is showing almost 50 already..if you think 70 was unaturally high, what was 88!!!........we could also say 47 is unaturally low due to the muppets at the BOE

Do your research, an 88 Baht Pound was just prior to the 1997 Asian crash! As far as 70 is concerned: that was at a time when the Pound was overvalued on world markets by as much 15%, it was an anomaly and everyone knew it, well most did!! It can be argued that the Pound is now undervalued relative to THB but then there's the question of what is the fair rate or norm. Some would argue based on fundamentals that the correct rate is 35, that at least is closer to the long term norm when the rate was pegged. Under no circumstances however is the fair rate anywhere close to 70.

i'm sure you wanted to say "after the 1997 crash". just before the crash the Pound fetched a mere 35 Baht and during the years before GBP THB depended exclusively on the hugely fluctuating GBP USD rate because THB was 100% pegged to the USD.

example: GBP THB end 1990 = 50, summer 1991 = 40, beginning 1993 = 35

My apologies, indeed I had intended to say "after"!

[exeter]

I see the UK Govt have offered the IMF £10M, probably get them some brownie points, keep the aaa rating and will do harm for the exchange rate although I thought the UK was a bit short of the readies ( hold I will go and print some more quick before QE finally finishes ) A good job we are all in this together and we sure can do with some good news.

[chiang mai]

I see the UK Govt have offered the IMF £10M, probably get them some brownie points, keep the aaa rating and will do harm for the exchange rate although I thought the UK was a bit short of the readies ( hold I will go and print some more quick before QE finally finishes ) A good job we are all in this together and we sure can do with some good news.

Will you please share with us the details/mechanics of how pledging £10 bill to the IMF will harm the exchange rate?

[exeter]

I see the UK Govt have offered the IMF £10M, probably get them some brownie points, keep the aaa rating and will do harm for the exchange rate although I thought the UK was a bit short of the readies ( hold I will go and print some more quick before QE finally finishes ) A good job we are all in this together and we sure can do with some good news.

Will you please share with us the details/mechanics of how pledging £10 bill to the IMF will harm the exchange rate?

I did not say it would, rather opposite, the US and Canada have decided not to loan further funds to the IMF.

[exeter]

Chiang Mai, my apologies I missed out the word "no" from a previous post, which obviously caused some convusion.

Edited April 21, 2012 by exeter

[cmsally]

The only plausible reason I can find is that major banks and investors want to get out of the Euro. So maybe there is some kind of crisis afoot in the Eurozone.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9217926/Taxpayer-stumps-up-another-10bn-to-save-euro.html

If we are then propping up the Euro to the tune of 10 billion and it seems banks etc maybe moving from Euro assets to GBP; it beggers the question as to whose money exactly we are lending them. Or more crudely have the government bribed entities to come and invest in GBP assets with their support to the Euro & IMF.with presumably the taxpayers money.

Edited April 21, 2012 by cmsally

[chiang mai]

The only plausible reason I can find is that major banks and investors want to get out of the Euro. So maybe there is some kind of crisis afoot in the Eurozone.

http://www.telegraph...-save-euro.html

If we are then propping up the Euro to the tune of 10 billion and it seems banks etc maybe moving from Euro assets to GBP; it beggers the question as to whose money exactly we are lending them. Or more crudely have the government bribed entities to come and invest in GBP assets with their support to the Euro & IMF.with presumably the taxpayers money.

I think you're right, we're at the stage where Europe is looking messy (again) and the Pound is seen as being a safer bet. But governement has pledged no further direct support for the Euro, pledging to the IMF navigates nicely around that pledge - I am the only one finding all of this rather tedious!.

[nong38]

The only plausible reason I can find is that major banks and investors want to get out of the Euro. So maybe there is some kind of crisis afoot in the Eurozone.

http://www.telegraph...-save-euro.html

If we are then propping up the Euro to the tune of 10 billion and it seems banks etc maybe moving from Euro assets to GBP; it beggers the question as to whose money exactly we are lending them. Or more crudely have the government bribed entities to come and invest in GBP assets with their support to the Euro & IMF.with presumably the taxpayers money.

I think you're right, we're at the stage where Europe is looking messy (again) and the Pound is seen as being a safer bet. But governement has pledged no further direct support for the Euro, pledging to the IMF navigates nicely around that pledge - I am the only one finding all of this rather tedious!.

No but if the exchange rate moves on up for £ I will put up with the tedious bit.

[transam]

I love optimists but prefer realists, the very best you can hope for at this stage of the procedings is low 50's, if you dig into it you'll see that 70 baht was unnatuarlly high and unsupportable hence, you will never, ever see 70's again.

XE is showing almost 50 already..if you think 70 was unaturally high, what was 88!!!........we could also say 47 is unaturally low due to the muppets at the BOE

Do your research, an 88 Baht Pound was just prior to the 1997 Asian crash! As far as 70 is concerned: that was at a time when the Pound was overvalued on world markets by as much 15%, it was an anomaly and everyone knew it, well most did!! It can be argued that the Pound is now undervalued relative to THB but then there's the question of what is the fair rate or norm. Some would argue based on fundamentals that the correct rate is 35, that at least is closer to the long term norm when the rate was pegged. Under no circumstances however is the fair rate anywhere close to 70.

I go by the cost of my HP sauce.

[Naam]

The only plausible reason I can find is that major banks and investors want to get out of the Euro. So maybe there is some kind of crisis afoot in the Eurozone.

http://www.telegraph...-save-euro.html

If we are then propping up the Euro to the tune of 10 billion and it seems banks etc maybe moving from Euro assets to GBP; it beggers the question as to whose money exactly we are lending them. Or more crudely have the government bribed entities to come and invest in GBP assets with their support to the Euro & IMF.with presumably the taxpayers money.

the 10bb UK is putting in the IMF collection box have nothing to do with propping up the €UR.

friendly advice: try to gather, compile and evaluate information from other sources than Telegraph and Daily Mail journàsslists.

Edited April 21, 2012 by Naam

[cmsally]

The only plausible reason I can find is that major banks and investors want to get out of the Euro. So maybe there is some kind of crisis afoot in the Eurozone.

http://www.telegraph...-save-euro.html

If we are then propping up the Euro to the tune of 10 billion and it seems banks etc maybe moving from Euro assets to GBP; it beggers the question as to whose money exactly we are lending them. Or more crudely have the government bribed entities to come and invest in GBP assets with their support to the Euro & IMF.with presumably the taxpayers money.

the 10bb UK is putting in the IMF collection box have nothing to do with propping up the €UR.

friendly advice: try to gather, compile and evaluate information from other sources than Telegraph and Daily Mail journàsslists.

The money being pledged to the IMF is to boost their bailout fund. Their role being to prop up/bail out the global economy. Consensus seems to be that next crises will stem from the Eurozone. Hence the conclusion being that any money pledged to IMF at present will be indirectly to prop up the Eurozone.

The US on the other hand has used the Euro Dollar swaps to finance the ECB and hence the Eurozone. This is reflected in no one batting an eyelid when the US didn't cough up or indeed sign the piece of paper in Washington at the IMF meeting.

Surely this (= the boost in IMF funding) is an indirect guarantee for the US money that has gone to Europe in the form of swaps. Because if the Euro and ECB slips then the IMF steps in and would in theory prop up the ECB allowing it to repay the Americans.

[BrianCR]

I love optimists but prefer realists, the very best you can hope for at this stage of the procedings is low 50's, if you dig into it you'll see that 70 baht was unnatuarlly high and unsupportable hence, you will never, ever see 70's again.

12 years ago when the Baht collapsed the pound reached an amazing 140 and stayed there for a few months - 70's? Chicken feed, just hope the baht collapses gain!!!!!