Pound Hits 50, How Long Will The Trend Last?

[chiang mai]

Actually the UK is doing very well . Unemployment is on the down , production is on the up. The government Deficit on the way down. its because of whats happening in Europe is masking the UK true economic output. The UK true out put is also masked, for example The wings for the Airbus are made in the UK , but then flown to France for assembly, Then France says we have sold x amount of Air buses, so France gets the Economical benefits.

Actually the UK is doing very well . Unemployment is on the down , production is on the up. The government Deficit on the way down. its because of whats happening in Europe is masking the UK true economic output. The UK true out put is also masked, for example The wings for the Airbus are made in the UK , but then flown to France for assembly, Then France says we have sold x amount of Air buses, so France gets the Economical benefits.

Just about every statement in this post is incorrect:

Unemployment:

The official figures, compiled by the Office for National Statistics, showed that the jobless rate was 8.3%, down from a 12-year high of 8.4% in the previous three-month period. The claimant count - the number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance - increased by 3,600 to 1.61 million in March.

Production:

UK manufacturing output fell by 1% in February, suffering its biggest monthly fall for 10 months, casting doubt on the country's economic recovery. Factory output was also down 1.4% compared with a year ago, the Office for National Statistics said.

Deficit:

Britain's budget deficit is actally on target despite a rise to £18.17bn last month, from £17.95bn a year ago, according to the Office for National Statistics. This was worse than the £16bn predicted by City economists.

Airbus:

The part about Europe getting the credit for UK manufacturing effort is just too silly to discuss.

[Naam]

I have seen this trend for the last 2 years don't know why but last may it hit 50 to which was a yearly high then come this may it did the same hit a yearly high always seems to happen just when going into low season don't worry the trend will continue and by the time we hit high season again it will be 47-48

Sorry but no way did it hit 50 last may at any time ,i brought over 5k and got 48.10 to the pound

it did hit 50.137 on may 28, 2011. my apologies for being a beancounter

Edited May 16, 2012 by Naam

[Naam]

Actually the UK is doing very well . Unemployment is on the down , production is on the up. The government Deficit on the way down. its because of whats happening in Europe is masking the UK true economic output. The UK true out put is also masked, for example The wings for the Airbus are made in the UK , but then flown to France for assembly, Then France says we have sold x amount of Air buses, so France gets the Economical benefits.

an interesting theory, unfortunately not valid because UK producers are getting paid for the wings.

[monsieurhappy]

I need to send for some money from my UK bank in the next few days but I know that as soon as I press the release button on my internet banking the pound will fall. I have the same effect on the weather - when I clean my car it always rains etc.

Anyway, I am quite prepared to wait awhile to allow all you people on TV to do your transactions at 50 baht to the pound providing enough of you put a 1,000 baht note in an envelope and send to me. This offer will last until Friday when I can guarantee the pound will fall after I press the button. I will hold back while you keep sending me money !!

[YellowHouse]

I don't think anyone really knows what they are talking about. Its impossible to see the future - especially in currency and exchange because things can happen over night in many sectors that could change many things.

The fact is, Thailand has one of the most stable economies in the world, but of course that could change at any time too, if political situations become so volatile that it affected their trading or export.

Unlikely in the near future.

The pound is weak and will continue to be so until there is a drastic improvement in the UK economy, which is unlikely to happen any time soon.

My own worthless advice would be stop fannying and pussyfooting around, Change your currency and get on with life. Don't expect it to shoot up towards 67 like it was 3 years ago, or even 55. You have money - that's a good thing.

The real clever question to ask would be, - "how do I make MORE money?" And that, is a far more interesting question and would probably yield a far more useful string of answers.

Ciao4now!

B.S.

[monsieurhappy]

Don't expect it to shoot up towards 67 like it was 3 years ago, or even 55.

You must have been having a "good dream" 3 years ago because the baht/pound exchange rate was 52.46 according to the chart found on this forum !

[YellowHouse]

My Bad - typo - I mean 57 or even 55. The downward spiral is entirely to do with the UK's economy.

But - within the last 10 years it has plummeted a great deal - back in 2003 it was 77 and even 79. But thats ancient history. Got cash? Enjoy! Get More and that's that!

[chiang mai]

I don't think anyone really knows what they are talking about. Its impossible to see the future - especially in currency and exchange because things can happen over night in many sectors that could change many things.

This is true, the UK might find that there's a massive seam of gold running down the centre of the country, all the way from the Scottish border down to the Isle of Wight. Thailand on the other hand might find itself annexed by Laos thus all attention would be on GBP/KIP instead. Anything less than those things is unlikely to have an impact, in my opinion.

[taninthai]

I have seen this trend for the last 2 years don't know why but last may it hit 50 to which was a yearly high then come this may it did the same hit a yearly high always seems to happen just when going into low season don't worry the trend will continue and by the time we hit high season again it will be 47-48

Sorry but no way did it hit 50 last may at any time ,i brought over 5k and got 48.10 to the pound

it did hit 50.137 on may 28, 2011. my apologies for being a beancounter

Thank you for proving my point and if you look a year further back same thing as said always at end off high season

[YellowHouse]

I think the real let down is that they have just found another Mayan Calendar that actually proves that the world is not going to end in December 2012. Lots of people have squandered all of their cash in Thailand on wine women and song in anticipation of the apocalypse, and I for one am extremely peeved and annoyed at those bloody Mayans for teasing us. No manner of favourable exchange rate is going to extrapolate me from the financial quandary I find myself in. dam_n those Mayan be-atches.

[david555]

Just remembered that Greece is probably going to hit the fan soon, and that will probably bring down the Euro, and Sterling along with it.

Just remembered that Greece is probably going to hit the fan soon, and that will probably bring down the Euro, and Sterling along with it.

Maybe not, maybe the other way. Country's will se Britain as a safe haven for currency, With low interest rates it will be a good place to try and borrow money. Also England will have to watch the boarders, if the Euro collapses the channel will have to be watched along with the airports, for people trying to withdraw there money through British banks. it could be a bitter sweet thing for the UK in the long term. Spain and Italy are in difficulty s to, if they go then it is good night Euro, because Spain alone would drain all of the Euro money in trying to shore up the Euro.

I think you have it there, I agree the UK is not doing well but will be a safe(ish) haven in the short term as Greece / Spain etc leave the European Fiasco. I truly think the USD will strenghen in the coming months as Europe unravels - I fully realise the US situation but ........... it will prevail over the other currencies in the next year or so.

The USD wont be allowed to fail, they have the military night to ensure this.

The USD wont be allowed to fail, they have the military night to ensure this

And i was thinking it where the24 hours $ printing machines who did that.....!,

"The USD wont be allowed to fail, they have the military night to ensure this" this is a nasty expression , reminds me to the history case 1939 a certain Austrian/German thought so too.....

[Maverell]

The Thai Baht has weakened. It may be allowed to weaken further or it may not. There are significant arguments in Thailand for and against the strengthening of the Baht - if the exporters win the argument expect to see the baht weaken further helping push up the exchange rate. Of course the opposite could happen.

[mrdome]

Greece will probably exit in the next month or two further depressing the euro.

Willing to bet on that? I say definitely *not* by July 31st 2012.

[laobali]

I don't think anyone really knows what they are talking about. Its impossible to see the future - especially in currency and exchange because things can happen over night in many sectors that could change many things.

This is true, the UK might find that there's a massive seam of gold running down the centre of the country, all the way from the Scottish border down to the Isle of Wight. Thailand on the other hand might find itself annexed by Laos thus all attention would be on GBP/KIP instead. Anything less than those things is unlikely to have an impact, in my opinion.

This is why I moved to Vientiane. Watching, waiting ...

[yoshiwara]

The pound is proving to be both a relative place of safety AND tied to the EU for exports, so it has both gone up and slid down. Two steps forward, one step back. An independent monetary authority plus political stability is viewed as a plus. Looking longer term to 2015 if the present government is seen as falling at the next election, then sterling more vulnerable and time to plan an exit.

[Robbie Dye]

I believe the good old Quid may reach 60 to the Baht !

No, I don't think I'm crazy but as so many above hve stated our economy is not doing that badly and my rather expensive accountants tell me that the Baht will weaken due to reduced exports of such as rice and prawns due higher production costs, I am told we can expect Quid to Euro to be around 1.50 rather sooner than we might expect, so DONT go changing all your quids just yet!

[DGS1244]

Here's my guesswork:

all things being equall the Pound should be around USD 1.50 (ish) and THB 45 (ish), so what we're seeing now is an aberation because of unusual circumstances. For my part I fully intend to transact any remaining GBP/THB transactions at the current levels because I don't expect to see the levels levels last for very long, OK, maybe there will be small amounts of movement upwards but the trend is unquestionably downwards, as far as I am concerned.

I always think it is dangerous to use 'unquestionably' in a statement.

Totally agree, I remember when the interest rates in the UK were rising past the 18% and another so called 'expert' tried to convince me to invest money as the rates would continue to rise and never go lower. Boy was he wrong and was I glad my money ended up only in short term agreements. 55GBP to the baht by years end possible.

[allan michaud]

Here's my guesswork:

all things being equall the Pound should be around USD 1.50 (ish) and THB 45 (ish), so what we're seeing now is an aberation because of unusual circumstances. For my part I fully intend to transact any remaining GBP/THB transactions at the current levels because I don't expect to see the levels levels last for very long, OK, maybe there will be small amounts of movement upwards but the trend is unquestionably downwards, as far as I am concerned.

I always think it is dangerous to use 'unquestionably' in a statement.

Unquestionably, I agree, (as far as I'm concerned).

But more seriously, I can see nothing on any front in the UK economy that suggests things are getting better, if anything things are getting worse hence there is no reason, independant of the EUR risk issues, that suggests GBP should be strengthening. All Asian currencies have fallen because of Europe so there is nothing particular about the Thai economy to suggest it is weaker than any other, on the contrary, future GDP growth estimates put Thailand in a very positive light, especially when compared to the UK.

I would have to agree regarding the unwarranted strengthening of sterling, but in the long term this govts policies will quite likely wreck the Thai economy. Swings and roundabouts.

[JohnAllan]

If you've been sitting on it, presumably you aren't desperate. That being the case, why change it at all? Keep it for the next visit.

Otherwise, with what has been for some years a seemingly unsustainable THB/GBP FX rate continuing to confound, change in two tranches over a month, allowing for the possibility of movements in either direction during that time.

[JohnAllan]

Here's my guesswork:

all things being equall the Pound should be around USD 1.50 (ish) and THB 45 (ish), so what we're seeing now is an aberation because of unusual circumstances. For my part I fully intend to transact any remaining GBP/THB transactions at the current levels because I don't expect to see the levels levels last for very long, OK, maybe there will be small amounts of movement upwards but the trend is unquestionably downwards, as far as I am concerned.

I always think it is dangerous to use 'unquestionably' in a statement.

Totally agree, I remember when the interest rates in the UK were rising past the 18% and another so called 'expert' tried to convince me to invest money as the rates would continue to rise and never go lower. Boy was he wrong and was I glad my money ended up only in short term agreements. 55GBP to the baht by years end possible.

The expert must have worked for Equitable Life.

[allan michaud]

The Thai Baht has weakened. It may be allowed to weaken further or it may not. There are significant arguments in Thailand for and against the strengthening of the Baht - if the exporters win the argument expect to see the baht weaken further helping push up the exchange rate. Of course the opposite could happen.

I think you maybe overestimating the effect the govt can have on the exchange rate. Their policies of running up a huge debt will likely have far more impact. If they continue to ignore the mounting debt I can see the Baht weakening considerable before this govts term is up.

[orang37]

Sawasdee Khrup,

Reading the posts on this thread I seem to feel there is a consensus that the Baht will depreciate soon.

May I ask, respectfully, what the sources of information you have drawn on re the Baht possible decline ... if this is a working hypothesis for you ... are ?

I would also like to see some citations of sources for the idea that the British Pound will be a "currency haven;" there are plenty of analyses right now in many major financial reporting sources suggesting the US $ may rally given EuroZone common currency break-down, and general Euro chaos, speculation about China's decline in financial indicators, and possible over-extended economy (thousands of empty office buildings, and apartment buildings), etc., etc.

As an American, I consider it just as likely that the US $ could be on the verge of another major financial melt-down as one of the nastiest election campaigns of the century draws nigh: during pre-election time refusal along political party lines to raise the deficit again may well be a precipitating factor, taking into account that the major "too big to fail" banks in their symbiotic and incestuous relation with the US stock markets are still screwing around with exotically leveraged portfolios, and instruments such as "credit default swaps," as revealed in the recent debacle of JPM's 2 Billion US $ little "mistake."

Throw in the idea of a strike by Israel on Iran pre US election, which seems more possible now that Nethanyahu has finessed his opposition, avoided elections, and gotten Mofaz ... recently vocal against the idea of an Israeli strike on Iran ... and his faction into his coalition.

Mofaz in 2008: "in a June 2008 in an interview with then Transportation Minister Mofaz in Yediot Ahronot, following the failure of diplomatic pressure on the Iranian leadership to stop nuclear development, he said: "it seems that an Israeli attack on Iran is inevitable."

Throw in the fact of a current de facto civil war in Syria spilling over into current armed conflicts between various factions in Lebanon right now ... well ...

I think I'll stick with gold, which is off nicely in the last month or two, but if any of you reading this happen to have a strong base of knowledge of the price-movement of gold in Thailand, particularly during the period of the rapid devaluation of the baht several years ago: I'd love to hear your thoughts, recollections, analyses, etc.

~o:37;

Edited May 16, 2012 by orang37

[JohnAllan]

Any number of opinions, but no one has any real idea as to the direction of either currency. One post suggests a USD rate of 1.50, ignoring the fact that the USD/GBP rate has fluctuated for many years, moving over time between 1.38 and 2.10. Thailand government policies threaten massive debt obligations vs a low tax inflow, and a strong likelihood of quantitative easing - printing money.

In most countries, a combination of coups, airport seizures, street occupations, political musical chairs, dubious government policies, etc would have impacted on the currency. But foreign inflows have helped to keep the THB strong - I'd suggest overly so. Question is, how much of those inflows are speculative? And what happens if - or when - the speculators decide - as in 1997 - it's time to pull the plug?

[JohnAllan]

Don't expect it to shoot up towards 67 like it was 3 years ago, or even 55.

You must have been having a "good dream" 3 years ago because the baht/pound exchange rate was 52.46 according to the chart found on this forum !

Slightly out, but not that far. It was well over 60 in 2008.

[w11guy]

If you know it's guesswork, why are you asking for experts? And if you want experts, what the hell are you asking on this forum for?

[JohnAllan]

Sawasdee Khrup,

Reading the posts on this thread I seem to feel there is a consensus that the Baht will depreciate soon.

May I ask, respectfully, what the sources of information you have drawn on re the Baht possible decline ... if this is a working hypothesis for you ... are ?

I would also like to see some citations of sources for the idea that the British Pound will be a "currency haven;" there are plenty of analyses right now in many major financial reporting sources suggesting the US $ may rally given EuroZone common currency break-down, and general Euro chaos, speculation about China's decline in financial indicators, and possible over-extended economy (thousands of empty office buildings, and apartment buildings), etc., etc.

As an American, I consider it just as likely that the US $ could be on the verge of another major financial melt-down as one of the nastiest election campaigns of the century draws nigh: during pre-election time refusal along political party lines to raise the deficit again may well be a precipitating factor, taking into account that the major "too big to fail" banks in their symbiotic and incestuous relation with the US stock markets are still screwing around with exotically leveraged portfolios, and instruments such as "credit default swaps," as revealed in the recent debacle of JPM's 2 Billion US $ little "mistake."

Throw in the idea of a strike by Israel on Iran pre US election, which seems more possible now that Nethanyahu has finessed his opposition, avoided elections, and gotten Mofaz ... recently vocal against the idea of an Israeli strike on Iran ... and his faction into his coalition.

Mofaz in 2008: "in a June 2008 in an interview with then Transportation Minister Mofaz in Yediot Ahronot, following the failure of diplomatic pressure on the Iranian leadership to stop nuclear development, he said: "it seems that an Israeli attack on Iran is inevitable."

Throw in the fact of a current de facto civil war in Syria spilling over into current armed conflicts between various factions in Lebanon right now ... well ...

I think I'll stick with gold, which is off nicely in the last month or two, but if any of you reading this happen to have a strong base of knowledge of the price-movement of gold in Thailand, particularly during the period of the rapid devaluation of the baht several years ago: I'd love to hear your thoughts, recollections, analyses, etc.

~o:37;

so

And there is the rub. A nasty election - and similar incidents/events - could feasibly impact on the USD, as in other countries. But the same things occurring in Thailand have, to date, had little effect on the THB.

[w11guy]

Actually the UK is doing very well . Unemployment is on the down , production is on the up. The government Deficit on the way down. its because of whats happening in Europe is masking the UK true economic output. The UK true out put is also masked, for example The wings for the Airbus are made in the UK , but then flown to France for assembly, Then France says we have sold x amount of Air buses, so France gets the Economical benefits.

In fact, the UK is doing very badly. It may be back in recession soon. The deficit is down but it is still huge and because there is still a deficit the debts are still growing quickly. Debts are still increasing at an alarming rate. That there is over GBP 1 trillion in debt means there will be low or no growth for a very long time. And unemployment is expected to rise over the next 1-3 years, so you are wrong about almost everything. Oh, we make plane wings. Big deal.

[david555]

Exchange Rates THAI banks

[w11guy]

Uk interest rates are as low as they have ever been which is one of the reasons sterling is so low. Rates will rise in the future as the economy hopefully improves which will push the pound upwards. Just when BoE raise rates is anyones guess. Popular opinion suggests towards the end of the year. Markets generally anticipate rate changes so I guess sterling to slowly rise throughout the year.

Popular opinion is that UK rates will stay low for at least another two years, but probably much longer. There is no way that rates will rise this year.

[w11guy]

Uk interest rates are as low as they have ever been which is one of the reasons sterling is so low. Rates will rise in the future as the economy hopefully improves which will push the pound upwards. Just when BoE raise rates is anyones guess. Popular opinion suggests towards the end of the year. Markets generally anticipate rate changes so I guess sterling to slowly rise throughout the year.

Nope, Mervin anounced yesterday that rates would remain as is, at least through 2013.

Maybe, maybe not, but if the economy improves the rates will have to rise to keep a lid of inflation.

Anyway, if I knew half as much as I wish I knew then I be alot wealthier than I am now.

After the last couple of years 50 seems bearable.

The economy has no hope of improving this year and inflation is on a downward trend. You are deluded.