Yingluck Bets On Army Calm As Thai Strains Rise

[moe666]

Most of the post so far in this thread are just expression of Farang paranoia and ignorant Thai bashing.

I don’t think the Army will stage a coup over this. There is little civil society activism against the bill and there has been no overt, or even subtle support from above for such action (though the recent wearing of an Army uniform was indeed a somewhat significant signal). The Army will not move without some perceived support of civil society.

Since at this point it appears this time there will be little mass mobilization of protestors against the bill, as opposed to 2008 when the Shinawatra’s last tried this method, it may in all likelihood end up passing.

I suspect this may end up being a good thing. Most people are very tired of this basically meaningless conflict between different groups of elites and it seems to me the middle class just wants to get on with life.

They are willing to let this go and see what happens. Since Thaksin is basically not a populist at heart, they have little to worry about Thailand turning into a Venezuela, and a Singapore may not be a bad thing at this point.

TH

I have to agree with you about this this government functions and is legal. The coup was aganist an illigal government at the time.

[pakorn7]

<snip>

And they voted the way they were paid to vote.

OK. So abolish voting.

Just hand power to Sonthi.

Sonthi is with Thaksin now....if you missed that strange detail.

OK. So abolish voting.

Just hand power to the other Sondhi.

[jonclark]

I quite agree, although after so many years here, despite my anger and dismay at Thai politics, I long ago came to the realization that Thailand is for the Thais and if this is the type of country the want, and if these (or any of the actions seen over the last 5 years) are the type of actions and behaviors they condone. Well good luck to them. I hope they all enjoy living in Thailand. I neither gloat or shed any tears for the direction this country is heading as that direction is a direct result of years of political interference, corruption and lies which the voting public seems to accept year, after year, after year. So be it.

For my fellow expats TV members just remember to always make sure you have the means for a way out. This isn't our battle.

I agree with your post entirely, with the exception I do sometimes shed tears for the many normal working Thais who really have no control over the country they love whatsoever.

I don't shed tears over my own life in Thailand, my apartment was built in 1930s & is held together by duct-tape and Buddhist prayer, it is worth next to nothing so if PTP decided to nullify my Chanut then I don't really lose money as such. I would be very concerned if I owned expensive property here, because the current PTP "Recon Bill" is basicallly "legalising theft", and saying they have the right to steal billions & not even the Supreme Court can stop them. And I'm terminally ill so I don't really feel I have to run away for my safety. But I do feel very worried about my Thai friends & I do cry about it sometimes.

Indeed we all know they are legalizing theft, however most Thais have been stealing from foreigners for years, it was only a matter of time before they turned on one another.

Although I don't know you, I'm sorry to hear about your illness and wish you the best.

[jonclark]

[

The Thais that voted for those coalitions partners did not know they were voting for YS nor amnesty for TS.

Indeed. But what's the betting the same people will vote for the same coalition partners in the next election.

As i mentioned in a previous post, political interference, corruption and lies, year after year after year and still it is accepted by the voting public.

[dru2]

Someone should tell Abhisit and his yellow shirt cronies that the Thai people voted against their policies at the last election, an election acknowledged as being fair and democratic. This time the army will not heed the yellowshirt calls for another bloodletting coup.

Fair and Democratic? What planet are you on?

[OzMick]

Someone should tell Abhisit and his yellow shirt cronies that the Thai people voted against their policies at the last election, an election acknowledged as being fair and democratic. This time the army will not heed the yellowshirt calls for another bloodletting coup.

Was white washing Thaksin's crimes one the policies that "the people" voted for? I don't remember it being on any bill boards.

"Thaksin Thinks, Peau Thai Acts" wasn't enough of a clue as to where it went next ?????

Decision coming soon on whether it was enough to have the party disbanded. Right about NOW would be good.

[h90]

<snip>

And they voted the way they were paid to vote.

OK. So abolish voting.

Just hand power to Sonthi.

Sonthi is with Thaksin now....if you missed that strange detail.

OK. So abolish voting.

Just hand power to the other Sondhi.

Just that Sondhi told a million times that he don't want any power or political office....

[h90]

Most of the post so far in this thread are just expression of Farang paranoia and ignorant Thai bashing.

I don’t think the Army will stage a coup over this. There is little civil society activism against the bill and there has been no overt, or even subtle support from above for such action (though the recent wearing of an Army uniform was indeed a somewhat significant signal). The Army will not move without some perceived support of civil society.

Since at this point it appears this time there will be little mass mobilization of protestors against the bill, as opposed to 2008 when the Shinawatra’s last tried this method, it may in all likelihood end up passing.

I suspect this may end up being a good thing. Most people are very tired of this basically meaningless conflict between different groups of elites and it seems to me the middle class just wants to get on with life.

They are willing to let this go and see what happens. Since Thaksin is basically not a populist at heart, they have little to worry about Thailand turning into a Venezuela, and a Singapore may not be a bad thing at this point.

TH

Since Thaksin is basically not a populist at heart

Thanks for the laugh

What's wrong with that?

He is corrupt, hungry for power, and democracy is just a tool to come to power.

So at heart he is a dictator, that democracy and populist are just tools to get what he wants. So he isn't a populist at heart...

[OzMick]

Someone should tell Abhisit and his yellow shirt cronies that the Thai people voted against their policies at the last election, an election acknowledged as being fair and democratic. This time the army will not heed the yellowshirt calls for another bloodletting coup.

The RTA coup was successful and bloodless.

Thaksin's coup was unsuccessful and killed 93 people.

If the RTA coup had occurred on a different day and was just a tad bloody, 93 people may still be alive today.

[gand]

<snip>

And they voted the way they were paid to vote.

OK. So abolish voting.

Just hand power to Sonthi.

Sonthi is with Thaksin now....if you missed that strange detail.

OK. So abolish voting.

Just hand power to the other Sondhi.

Thaksin plans to do just that, abolish voting, one party system for Thailand, like China, Russia, N Korea.

[thaihome]

... The coup was aganist an illigal government at the time.

No, government on Sept 19, 2006 was legal in all aspects.

The 2006 coup was what is called a Guardian coup.

Many had deep reservations about it, but considering Thaksin actions to that point, saw that the Army had little choice but to step in. That concept is very alien to most westerners and that knee jerk western reaction about coups has been used very effectively in the UDD English language propaganda, primarily by Amsterdam.

TH

• Guardian coup d'état: the "musical chairs" coup d'état. The stated aim of such a coup is usually improving public order and efficiency, and ending corruption. There usually is no fundamental change to the power structure. Generally, the leaders portray their actions as a temporary and unfortunate necessity. An early example is the coup d'état by consul Sulla, in 88 B.C., against supporters of Marius in Rome, after the latter attempted to strip him of a military command. A contemporary instance is the civilian Prime Minister of Pakistan Zulfikar Ali Bhutto's overthrow by Chief of Army Staff General Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq in 1977, who cited widespread civil disorder and impending civil war as his justification. In 1999, General Pervez Musharraf overthrew Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on the same grounds. Nations with guardian coups can frequently shift back and forth between civilian and military governments. Example countries include Pakistan, Turkey (1971 and 1980), and Thailand. A bloodless coup usually arises from the Guardian coup d'état.
  

[Soupdragon]

Someone should tell Abhisit and his yellow shirt cronies that the Thai people voted against their policies at the last election, an election acknowledged as being fair and democratic. This time the army will not heed the yellowshirt calls for another bloodletting coup.

Was white washing Thaksin's crimes one the policies that "the people" voted for? I don't remember it being on any bill boards.

"Thaksin Thinks, Peau Thai Acts" wasn't enough of a clue as to where it went next ?????

Decision coming soon on whether it was enough to have the party disbanded. Right about NOW would be good.

Well it seems that things get moved up and down agendas depending on whether or not it pleases those calling the shots, so I would say "NOW" may take on a new meaning.

[Yunla]

I think the most obvious & alarming fact about the 'reconciliation bill' and this type of breath-takingly arrogant over-riding of the legal system, if this is what Yingluck is prepared to do openly infront of everyone, what is she prepared to do behind the scenes now and in future.

I also reject the farang paranoia angle, my Thai friends who are far from radical conspiracy-theorists are all very worried about the precedent of a politician over-ruling the Supreme Court with all that goes along with this institution.

Edited June 1, 2012 by Yunla

[OzMick]

Thaksin plans to do just that, abolish voting, one party system for Thailand, like China, Russia, N Korea.

The 3rd Reich was to last for a 1000 years, but fell a bit short. Thaksin won't even get close to his 20 years (or was it 30?)

[Wavefloater]

I'm not sure what to think about Yingluck. It's almost refreshing to see a high-profile Thai that doesn't care if she loses face. I've always felt that the Thais over-the-top need to save face was a detriment to the country and inevitably slowed the wheels of progress.

Many world leaders are nothing more that puppets for the elite who pull their strings. Yinkluck is such an obvious joke that becoming a puppet would be a promotion for her.

[GentlemanJim]

Most of the post so far in this thread are just expression of Farang paranoia and ignorant Thai bashing.

I don’t think the Army will stage a coup over this. There is little civil society activism against the bill and there has been no overt, or even subtle support from above for such action (though the recent wearing of an Army uniform was indeed a somewhat significant signal). The Army will not move without some perceived support of civil society.

Since at this point it appears this time there will be little mass mobilization of protestors against the bill, as opposed to 2008 when the Shinawatra’s last tried this method, it may in all likelihood end up passing.

I suspect this may end up being a good thing. Most people are very tired of this basically meaningless conflict between different groups of elites and it seems to me the middle class just wants to get on with life.

They are willing to let this go and see what happens. Since Thaksin is basically not a populist at heart, they have little to worry about Thailand turning into a Venezuela, and a Singapore may not be a bad thing at this point.

TH

So because some Farangs think problems are going to occur, they are paranoid, and it's all going to fizzle out the way you say? You don't think the Army will act over this? The issue hasn't even got warmed up yet, never mind "there is little civil activism going on". There are currently people of every coloured shirt description heading for Bangkok. As for your statement "there is no overt or even subtle support from above for such action " that is nothing but uninformed supposition. Do you court their company and confidence? I don't think so somehow. This may in all likely hood not "end up passing". Great end comment from you "Thailand turning into a Venezuela, and a Singapore may not be a bad thing at this point.", it would be a very bad thing, what are you saying here? Give Thaksin a Republic? Some posters may have a little paranoia but your post is speculative uninformed tosh.

Edited June 1, 2012 by GentlemanJim

[OzMick]

I think the most obvious & alarming fact about the 'reconciliation bill' and this type of breath-takingly arrogant over-riding of the legal system, if this is what Yingluck is prepared to do openly infront of everyone, what is she prepared to do behind the scenes now and in future.

I also reject the farang paranoia angle, my Thai friends who are far from radical conspiracy-theorists are all very worried about the precedent of a politician over-ruling the Supreme Court with all that goes along with this institution.

Such arrogance is a family trait. Thaksin's tax exemption law and the Myanmar telecommunications loan is the stuff of dreams for corrupt or would be corrupt politicians, but far too in-your-face for most to try.

[Soupdragon]

Thaksin plans to do just that, abolish voting, one party system for Thailand, like China, Russia, N Korea.

The 3rd Reich was to last for a 1000 years, but fell a bit short. Thaksin won't even get close to his 20 years (or was it 30?)

It was 20.

Thaksin actually said in an interview that the way to stay in power in Thailand is to do just that, have a one party system.

[gand]

Any side bets on the date of TS arrival in Thailand?

[FOODLOVER]

Whats the over under? Does his new girlfriend live here or Dubai? Can she drive yet? Pertinent information needed.

Edited June 1, 2012 by FOODLOVER

[thaihome]

So because some Farangs think problems are going to occur, they are paranoid, and it's all going to fizzle out the way you say? You don't think the Army will act over this? The issue hasn't even got warmed up yet, never mind "there is little civil activism going on". There are currently people of every coloured shirt description heading for Bangkok. As for your statement "there is no overt or even subtle support from above for such action " that is nothing but uninformed supposition. Do you court their company and confidence? I don't think so somehow. This may in all likely hood not "end up passing". Great end comment from you "Thailand turning into a Venezuela, and a Singapore may not be a bad thing at this point.", it would be a very bad thing, what are you saying here? Give Thaksin a Republic? Some posters may have a little paranoia but your post is speculative uninformed tosh.

The farang paranoia I was referring to where these types of posts:

In my opinion all foreigners living in Thailand and owning property here should be very concerned with the current actions of PTP & Yingluck, for the simple reason that if this regime are willing to violate the laws of Thailand & to disrespect the Judicial system itself, and to violate the rights of Thai people, this regime should have no hesitation in violating the rights of foreigners living in Thailand. Once they start overturning Supreme Court decisions which are the strongest pillars of Thai society, there is nothing to stop them targeting the peripheral sections of society who are already less represented under the existing laws.

Thailand will slowly and very gradually fall into an isolated status that guarantees future political and social strife, as Bangkok will make progress while the rest of Thailand looks more like Laos.

For my fellow expats TV members just remember to always make sure you have the means for a way out. This isn't our battle.

it is worth next to nothing so if PTP decided to nullify my Chanut then I don't really lose money as such. I would be very concerned if I owned expensive property here

You consider these to be informed, helpful comments?

But no, I don’t court their company and confidence, but I have eyes and can read, nor am I prone to hysteria.

Though there is opposition to the bill, it is not nothing like the opposition that happened in 2008 when this was first tried, nor is there the mass of protest and wide criticism from a variety of Thai organizations and institutions like in 2006 that preceded the coup and gave the Army the impression that there was support for staging a coup from Thai civil society.

None of those ingredients that were present in 2006 and 2008 are present now. What you have now is newspapers publishing sensationalist articles about what the Army is going to do. In today’s world, the Army will do nothing unless they perceive there is support for such action. Nothing to date says such signals are being sent nor are there signs of large support for action. A few thousand people in front of Parliament or the antics of the opposition in Parliament itself are not going to bring about a coup.

If the passing of the bill brings Thaksin back, unless there is massive protest against that brought about by certain signals being giving, the Army will do nothing. Thaksin coming back by itself does no harm to them and in this lifetime, there will be no changes to current power structure.

Perhaps I should have said a “Malaysia” as they are not a republic and still have a king. But the comment was meant to mean a bit of one party rule, even if it comes at the price of a continuance of the delayed Shinawatra dominance may not be a bad thing. What the UDD and the “democracy lovers” will do could be very interesting. The saying be careful what you wish for comes to mind.

My comments are certainly “speculative” but I disagree they are “uninformed tosh”, especially when compared to what is often posted here (see other posts above).

TH

Edited June 1, 2012 by thaihome

[hellodolly]

Someone should tell Abhisit and his yellow shirt cronies that the Thai people voted against their policies at the last election, an election acknowledged as being fair and democratic. This time the army will not heed the yellowshirt calls for another bloodletting coup.

The Thai people DID NOT vote against Abhisits polices, because they wouldn't know what they were, 75% of Thailand have no Idea----they voted for money-given-known fact, but most importantly voted because they believed Thaksin would make the poor rich in 6 months, DID he ??? NO all they have acieved is more division-in trying to give the fugitive a pardon.

Actually 52% of the population votged against Thaksin and his policies.

The article stated.

"“Of course the reconciliation might not satisfy for all,” Yingluck said. “Reconciliation must be accepted by the majority of the people.”

She represents the minority of the people (48%) is she trying to say there will be a referendum for it.

If so it should be done before Thaksin has time to pay off all his supporters or they might vote against him.

But if you add into that 48% the additional votes from coalition partners, then she with her coalition supporters in government, does represent the majority.

Nice try I said nothing about parliament I said 52% of the population voted against Thaksin.

That means they did not want him.

In the 48% that voted PT there were some of them who did not want him either they honestly thought Yingluck could do a good job Then there are the ones who voted PT because they did not want Abhist worse than they did not want Thaksin.

In short the people don't want him.

[Hermeric]

Yes. Take out voting rights from those 75%. they dont understand. Only us, bangkok people , benz driving paragon shoppers should vote

Posted with Thaivisa App http://apps.thaivisa.com

[Thai at Heart]

So because some Farangs think problems are going to occur, they are paranoid, and it's all going to fizzle out the way you say? You don't think the Army will act over this? The issue hasn't even got warmed up yet, never mind "there is little civil activism going on". There are currently people of every coloured shirt description heading for Bangkok. As for your statement "there is no overt or even subtle support from above for such action " that is nothing but uninformed supposition. Do you court their company and confidence? I don't think so somehow. This may in all likely hood not "end up passing". Great end comment from you "Thailand turning into a Venezuela, and a Singapore may not be a bad thing at this point.", it would be a very bad thing, what are you saying here? Give Thaksin a Republic? Some posters may have a little paranoia but your post is speculative uninformed tosh.

The farang paranoia I was referring to where these types of posts:

In my opinion all foreigners living in Thailand and owning property here should be very concerned with the current actions of PTP & Yingluck, for the simple reason that if this regime are willing to violate the laws of Thailand & to disrespect the Judicial system itself, and to violate the rights of Thai people, this regime should have no hesitation in violating the rights of foreigners living in Thailand. Once they start overturning Supreme Court decisions which are the strongest pillars of Thai society, there is nothing to stop them targeting the peripheral sections of society who are already less represented under the existing laws.

Thailand will slowly and very gradually fall into an isolated status that guarantees future political and social strife, as Bangkok will make progress while the rest of Thailand looks more like Laos.

For my fellow expats TV members just remember to always make sure you have the means for a way out. This isn't our battle.

it is worth next to nothing so if PTP decided to nullify my Chanut then I don't really lose money as such. I would be very concerned if I owned expensive property here

You consider these to be informed, helpful comments?

But no, I don’t court their company and confidence, but I have eyes and can read, nor am I prone to hysteria.

Though there is opposition to the bill, it is not nothing like the opposition that happened in 2008 when this was first tried, nor is there the mass of protest and wide criticism from a variety of Thai organizations and institutions like in 2006 that preceded the coup and gave the Army the impression that there was support for staging a coup from Thai civil society.

None of those ingredients that were present in 2006 and 2008 are present now. What you have now is newspapers publishing sensationalist articles about what the Army is going to do. In today’s world, the Army will do nothing unless they perceive there is support for such action. Nothing to date says such signals are being sent nor are there signs of large support for action. A few thousand people in front of Parliament or the antics of the opposition in Parliament itself are not going to bring about a coup.

If the passing of the bill brings Thaksin back, unless there is massive protest against that brought about by certain signals being giving, the Army will do nothing. Thaksin coming back by itself does no harm to them and in this lifetime, there will be no changes to current power structure.

Perhaps I should have said a “Malaysia” as they are not a republic and still have a king. But the comment was meant to mean a bit of one party rule, even if it comes at the price of a continuance of the delayed Shinawatra dominance may not be a bad thing. What the UDD and the “democracy lovers” will do could be very interesting. The saying be careful what you wish for comes to mind.

My comments are certainly “speculative” but I disagree they are “uninformed tosh”, especially when compared to what is often posted here (see other posts above).

TH

If you have a parliament that can no longer function, I would believe the army will step in, support or not.

[chuang]

I can see the so-called Yingluck/Thaksin bashers are getting paranoid.....it seems that these farangs can run the country better...

[thaihome]

If you have a parliament that can no longer function, I would believe the army will step in, support or not.

What is not highlighted in the reporting and videos about the antics of the oppostion is in each case, it came after the voting had taken place. The Parliment is functioning. They have had held two votes on when the bill will be delibrated, As expected, PTP won both.

You have to realize that this a much different Parliament than in 2008 when this tried. Back then, PPP was in power due to a coalition in which many of the partners were hesitate to support the amnesty attempt. Today, PTP has a fairly solid stand alone majority and as long as party discipline is held, they can put this through.

I truly think the only thing that will stop it is a signal that it should not happen. I just don’t think that signal is going to be given.

TH

Edited June 1, 2012 by thaihome

[gand]

Will it be called a coup when TS brushes aside little sis and takes over as PM?

[gand]

Any chance of getting Suu Kyi to be Thailand's PM?

[OzMick]

I can see the so-called Yingluck/Thaksin bashers are getting paranoid.....it seems that these farangs can run the country better...

Saying that someone could run the country better than Yingluk and PTP would be damning them with faint praise.

As that is not the primary objective (now in motion) of this government, it's a rather pointless argument.

[JoeLing]

I can see the so-called Yingluck/Thaksin bashers are getting paranoid.....it seems that these farangs can run the country better...

Mickey Mouse probably runs the country better then who ever runs it now