Thai Rice Exports: 'Sector May Be Heading For Disaster'

[thaicbr]

Perhaps more of the same economic polices will lead to Thailand Importanting Rice from India and Vietnam.

Sooner or later the chickens will come home to roost, and in the case of the economic poorly thought out polices, some of the chickens

have already come back and more will be headed home.

Its kind of an economic Karma.

.

According to reports in the press and observations here. They already are importing rice from Cambodia

Sent from my GT-P1010 using Thaivisa Connect App

[jerrysteve]

The demand for rice will increase as supplies fall.

it is basic economics 101.

By screwing with the rice farmers the government interfere with market dynamics and is creating a tremendous imbalances

between supply and demand.

One can see that on any stock, commodity, or currency chart if you know what your looking at.

[rubl]

Perhaps more of the same economic polices will lead to Thailand Importanting Rice from India and Vietnam.

Sooner or later the chickens will come home to roost, and in the case of the economic poorly thought out polices, some of the chickens

have already come back and more will be headed home.

Its kind of an economic Karma..

According to reports in the press and observations here. They already are importing rice from Cambodia

Sent from my GT-P1010 using Thaivisa Connect App

That's an unfounded rumour, ask my friend phiphidon

Edited July 26, 2012 by rubl

[AleG]

Another victory for PTP-government under Dubai-management, what business genius does it take, to see that over-paying the mills to buy rice, then having to subsidise it for exporters to be able to shift it, is a lose/lose strategy for the public-finances ?

As forecast yonks ago, here on TV.

It was to secure the election victory.

And dump obscene amounts of public money into The Right People.

Hint: The Right People are not poor farmers.

[Buchholz]

This is the first time in half a century that Thailand has lost its position as top rice-exporting nation.

Yingluck's Legacy in history.

.

[Buchholz]

Perhaps more of the same economic polices will lead to Thailand Importanting Rice from India and Vietnam.

Sooner or later the chickens will come home to roost, and in the case of the economic poorly thought out polices, some of the chickens

have already come back and more will be headed home.

Its kind of an economic Karma.

According to reports in the press and observations here. They already are importing rice from Cambodia

By the truckloads.... in order to sell it.... at Yingluck's inflated price.... by calling it Thai rice....

http://www.thaivisa....ost__p__5253478

,

.

Edited July 26, 2012 by Buchholz

[Thai at Heart]

(snip)

Wouldn't it be better to reduce the amount of surplus Thailand produces for export and move to something else?

Handing out a huge subsidy hardly encourages farmers to switch crops, though apparently some are, but to other subsidised crops.

But you have to realise that the rice subsidy has nothing to do with rice exports, balance of trade or foreign currency income. The rice pledging scheme is for one reason only, buying votes with other people's money.

Well it could be that the entire intent is that, but you don't mess with the rice barons in this country, and hope to get away with it forever. Neither do you completely ruin the thai rice market and expect to get away with it forever. There are myriad reasons why the price for rice could go above the pledge price set by the government in the next year or so. I worked in agriculture for years, and currencies flip around, crops fail, stocks become available, exports get stopped in countries.

Are the conditions right today for this to happen? Nope. Could they be in a years, time, all possible. Finding a home for 9mn tonnes of product in a global market of 750mn tonnes, is hardly impossible.

[rubl]

(snip)

Wouldn't it be better to reduce the amount of surplus Thailand produces for export and move to something else?

Handing out a huge subsidy hardly encourages farmers to switch crops, though apparently some are, but to other subsidised crops.

But you have to realise that the rice subsidy has nothing to do with rice exports, balance of trade or foreign currency income. The rice pledging scheme is for one reason only, buying votes with other people's money.

Well it could be that the entire intent is that, but you don't mess with the rice barons in this country, and hope to get away with it forever. Neither do you completely ruin the thai rice market and expect to get away with it forever. There are myriad reasons why the price for rice could go above the pledge price set by the government in the next year or so. I worked in agriculture for years, and currencies flip around, crops fail, stocks become available, exports get stopped in countries.

Are the conditions right today for this to happen? Nope. Could they be in a years, time, all possible. Finding a home for 9mn tonnes of product in a global market of 750mn tonnes, is hardly impossible.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think it is not sound business practice to count on mishaps happening to others. Somehow you have to hedge your possibilities / opportunities.

BTW the OP mentions "12 million tonnes of rice is warehoused "

[thaicbr]

(snip)

Wouldn't it be better to reduce the amount of surplus Thailand produces for export and move to something else?

Handing out a huge subsidy hardly encourages farmers to switch crops, though apparently some are, but to other subsidised crops.

But you have to realise that the rice subsidy has nothing to do with rice exports, balance of trade or foreign currency income. The rice pledging scheme is for one reason only, buying votes with other people's money.

Well it could be that the entire intent is that, but you don't mess with the rice barons in this country, and hope to get away with it forever. Neither do you completely ruin the thai rice market and expect to get away with it forever. There are myriad reasons why the price for rice could go above the pledge price set by the government in the next year or so. I worked in agriculture for years, and currencies flip around, crops fail, stocks become available, exports get stopped in countries.

Are the conditions right today for this to happen? Nope. Could they be in a years, time, all possible. Finding a home for 9mn tonnes of product in a global market of 750mn tonnes, is hardly impossible.

Except the problem is this is a year on year problem with limited decent storage facilities. So next year they may well have 18 million tons to off load. All bought at well over current market value. That's money that could have been spent more wisely on crop promotion. Skills training. Co-Op's etc so in providing the farmer with an increased income NOT the millers.

And that's what the thai experts are saying not just TV armchair 'experts' like me :blink:

sent from my Wellcom A90+

Edited July 26, 2012 by thaicbr

[gtm2k]

No mention of the out dated, inefficient & environmentally destructive growing methods that farmers insist on sticking to.

Yields could easily be increased with lower overheads if only they would open their minds to change.

I have one brother-in-law in the extended family who is a rice grower tooo, and i once suggested to him that if he could look at mixed cropping along with organic methods, he could significantly lower his costs and increase yields.

His response was - even though i was more educated than him , his experience surpasses me !

So when the horse does'nt want to drink, you are wasting your energy digging a well !

[rubl]

This is the first time in half a century that Thailand has lost its position as top rice-exporting nation.

Yingluck's Legacy in history.

You're naughty, my boy. This will hardly end up on the list, not even the bottom part. Number one for now may be "extreme flooding well done" or possibly "record time of only two days for issuing and delivering new passport to a fugitive with MoFA office flooded". I'm afraid "dodging questions" may also be in the top three achievements.

BTW I may have missed the government's presentation of their first nine months accomplishments, my fault surely. Can some one please tell me when the first year achievements will be presented?

[thaicbr]

This is the first time in half a century that Thailand has lost its position as top rice-exporting nation.

Yingluck's Legacy in history.

You're naughty, my boy. This will hardly end up on the list, not even the bottom part. Number one for now may be "extreme flooding well done" or possibly "record time of only two days for issuing and delivering new passport to a fugitive with MoFA office flooded". I'm afraid "dodging questions" may also be in the top three achievements.

BTW I may have missed the government's presentation of their first nine months accomplishments, my fault surely. Can some one please tell me when the first year achievements will be presented?

That last one is easy. If all is good after the 12mths. Otherwise ................ummmm

sent from my Wellcom A90+

[rubl]

This is the first time in half a century that Thailand has lost its position as top rice-exporting nation.

Yingluck's Legacy in history.

You're naughty, my boy. This will hardly end up on the list, not even the bottom part. Number one for now may be "extreme flooding well done" or possibly "record time of only two days for issuing and delivering new passport to a fugitive with MoFA office flooded". I'm afraid "dodging questions" may also be in the top three achievements.

BTW I may have missed the government's presentation of their first nine months accomplishments, my fault surely. Can some one please tell me when the first year achievements will be presented?

That last one is easy. If all is good after the 12mths. Otherwise ................ummmm

sent from my Wellcom A90+

Now you're getting naughty, my dear lad. Surely you're not trying to suggest that ... ...

Mind you, it may explain why I seem to have missed the nine months achievement. Still I saw PM Yingluck handing out 105 tabletPCs and smile

[bhakta]

Thaksin's brilliant plans to get his people in power have certainly been effective, but there is in the end only more pain for the farmers. We grow rice on our farm, and this year we had to plow up the first planting due to lack of rainfall. There is no money in this for the farmer, that is sure.

[hanuman2543]

Another first class example of the amateurishness of Thai politicians. Complete lack of logic, know how and common sense as always.

Edited July 26, 2012 by hanuman2543

[Thai at Heart]

(snip)

Wouldn't it be better to reduce the amount of surplus Thailand produces for export and move to something else?

Handing out a huge subsidy hardly encourages farmers to switch crops, though apparently some are, but to other subsidised crops.

But you have to realise that the rice subsidy has nothing to do with rice exports, balance of trade or foreign currency income. The rice pledging scheme is for one reason only, buying votes with other people's money.

Well it could be that the entire intent is that, but you don't mess with the rice barons in this country, and hope to get away with it forever. Neither do you completely ruin the thai rice market and expect to get away with it forever. There are myriad reasons why the price for rice could go above the pledge price set by the government in the next year or so. I worked in agriculture for years, and currencies flip around, crops fail, stocks become available, exports get stopped in countries.

Are the conditions right today for this to happen? Nope. Could they be in a years, time, all possible. Finding a home for 9mn tonnes of product in a global market of 750mn tonnes, is hardly impossible.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think it is not sound business practice to count on mishaps happening to others. Somehow you have to hedge your possibilities / opportunities.

BTW the OP mentions "12 million tonnes of rice is warehoused "

As for the total crop in warehouse, presumably some of that is destined for domestic consumption, unless they had a whopping crop last year.

Of course, they shouldn't have done it exactly they way they have done, but this government wouldn't be the first or the last to believe that they had some pricing power because of their dominant export position. They have been scuppered by the fact (from what I have read) was that last year, production globally was very good, and so there was sufficient produced and the entire export/trading business is finding it tough. That said, when the total export business is so small in comparison to total global production, it would only take a small reduction to balance the market once again and prices for rice exports would firm.

Every commodity has its foibles, and it is indeed an odd one that so few countries can actually produce a surplus to the level of Thailand but the policy they have pursued could have worked if last years crop wasnt' so plentiful around the world. They took a gamble, and it didn't work, and who would have known for sure that the Indians would re-enter the export market after being out of it since 2007. But when consumption is so vast, and surpluses within countries so tight in terms of total production, it doesn't take much to absorb the entire Thai surplus in very little time. The entire Indian export crop could probably be consumed domestically if everyone in the country put one more spoon of rice on their plate. LOL

http://www.business-standard.com/india/storypage.php?autono=473452

Of course, whether they can stop it getting rotten, or eaten by pests first is another issue.

[harryfrompattaya]

Well wait for 4 years when China is number 1.

10 years ago India was just importing rice no exporting of rice.

But than Thailand the Medical Center of the World

No Problem

[jerrysteve]

As the supply of rice starts to drop on bad news, that will be exactly the time to buy that commodity. Buy that commodity on bad news. When the suppy of rices diminishes in the market the shift will be on the demand side of the equation...

But at that point and let the people who come in the market after you pay you as the price rises.

There will be nice profits as long as you don't get greedy..

[Thai at Heart]

Well wait for 4 years when China is number 1.

10 years ago India was just importing rice no exporting of rice.

But than Thailand the Medical Center of the World

No Problem

India and China will largely continue to need to keep the vast majority of their rice in country. Any hint of the remotest chance of crop shortages in either of these countries, and the demand for exports would jump hugely.

http://oryza.com/Rice-News/14882.html

As Chinese rice consumption ticks higher, China’s rice production hasn’t kept pace as it struggles to also produce additional supplies of other grains including corn – corn production is estimated to outpace paddy production in terms of tonnage. While China’s grain production is up for the 9th straight year, the nation’s rice acreage has declined for the second year.

China is the world’s top producer and consumer of rice. It produces and consumes a third of the world’s rice, about 200 million tons a year. In 2004, China was forced to import rice when it produced 124 million tons but consumed 150 million tons. In 1989 the output was 179 million metric tons.

http://factsanddetails.com/china.php?itemid=344&catid=9&subcatid=63

So you can see how volatile pricing can be in this market.

Edited July 26, 2012 by Thai at Heart

[garvon]

260 million baht is approx 4,000 baht for every man woman and child here. Not bad huh? And rising.

[puipuitom]

As importer of tropical foods into the EU I faced so many difficulties, I switched to other origins for many items.

The Thai's still think all the world is waiting for their supreme products, their WORLD FAMOUS kitchen (with the thinnest recipe book), but in reality are overtaken by several countries in the area.

Trying for two WEEKS ! now to get prices + product info for coconut water. NO RESULT, so I contracted Vietnamese goods.

Or as I say: "in Thailand a "seller" is the one, who is able to forward the incoming orders in his/her in-e-mail box, but any other initiative... sent market data to their potential ( yes, NOT ONLY to those who order) customers. like the Chinese are doing so frequently... forget it.. so much work... Interested in ‘order / payment / FOB and then.. the hack, farang pays always… “

Also governmental support is close to nothing. Even hampering Thai export, sent several reminders, but... oh, so difficult, I have to work.. so.. better sit and dream..

Also Thai government is as active as a concrete block in the mud: The former Minister of Commerce, Dr. Supachai Panitchpakdi was so busy to get the sec.-gen of WTO, they forgot to re-apply for GSP import duty preferences into the EU, with result the prices of Thai food products landed went up with a 10 %.

I tried for 3 years to get info from the Thai agricultural attaché at the EU in Brussels, but.. NEVER even a reply.

I tried to send a 500 g ( yes, half kg, not a half ship load) of rice to Thailand for lab test, but.. close to impossible, the receiver in TH had to apply for an import license for rice ( and you all know, how quick Thai gov. works, so imagine what happens if "rice has to be imported". Result, we switched to Basmati rice.

In Vietnam the “children of the fugitives” are returning massively with their expertise “how farang mind ticks”, Myanmar is losing its boycott of the West very rapidly, and China.. is already MILES ahead of TH

As a Thai friend of mine said already 15 years ago: ‘we Thais are so spoiled with easy orders falling in, we want not only the “fried chickens fly into our mouths, but have to be pre-chewed “

As importer of tropical foods into the EU I faced so many difficulties, I switched to other origins for many items.

The Thai's still think all the world is waiting for their supreme products, their WORLD FAMOUS kitchen (with the thinnest recipe book), but in reality are overtaken by several countries in the area.

Trying for two WEEKS ! now to get prices + product info for coconut water. NO RESULT, so I contracted Vietnamese goods.

Or as I say: "in Thailand a "seller" is the one, who is able to forward the incoming orders in his/her in-e-mail box, but any other initiative... sent market data to their potential ( yes, NOT ONLY to those who order) customers. like the Chinese are doing so frequently... forget it.. so much work... Interested in ‘order / payment / FOB and then.. the hack, farang pays always… “

Also Thai governmental support is close to nothing. Even hampering Thai export, sent several reminders, but... oh, so difficult, I have to work.. so.. better sit and dream..

The former Minister of Commerce, Dr. Supachai Panitchpakdi was so busy to get the sec.-gen of WTO, they forgot to re-apply for GSP import duty preferences into the EU, with result the prices of Thai food products landed went up with a 10 %.

I tried for 3 years to get info from the Thai agricultural attaché at the EU in Brussels, but.. NEVER even a reply.

I tried to send a 500 g ( yes, half kg, not a half ship load) of rice to Thailand for lab test, but.. close to impossible: the receiver in TH had to apply for an import license for rice ( and you all know, how quick Thai gov. works, so imagine what happens if "rice has to be imported") . Result, we switched to Basmati rice.

In Vietnam the “children of the fugitives” are returning massively with their expertise “how farang minds ticks”, Myanmar is losing its boycott of the West very rapidly, and China.. is already MILES ahead of TH

As a Thai friend of mine said already 15 years ago: ‘we Thais are so spoiled with easy orders falling in, we want not only the “fried chickens fly into our mouths, but have to be pre-chewed “

[Thai at Heart]

http://oryza.com/Rice-News/15803.html

U.S. rice sellers raised their quotes by about $5 per ton for U.S. 4% broken rice. South American rice quotes are now the most expensive, inching out Thai rice quotes. Uruguayan and Argentine 5% rice is shown around $580 per ton, about a $10 per ton premium over Thai 5% rice quoted around $570 per ton and U.S. 4% rice at about $570 per ton.

Back this spring when Thai rice was quoted about $600 per ton, U.S. and South American rice was offered at about a $70 per discount to Thai rice but that gap has since closed and may be reversing.

About $100 per ton below U.S., South American, and Thai rice, Pakistani rice is shown around $470 per ton, with Indian rice lagging behind at around $420 per ton followed by the cheapest origin Viet rice at about $410 per ton.

[waza]

Another stunning success by the convicted criminal led PTP government.

[attento]

Well wait for 4 years when China is number 1.

10 years ago India was just importing rice no exporting of rice.

But than Thailand the Medical Center of the World

No Problem

India is a sad case . . better to export than feed it's own population adequately ? . . how sad is that ?

Sure, they might still have a surplus, but first things first.

[ramrod711]

No mention of the out dated, inefficient & environmentally destructive growing methods that farmers insist on sticking to.

Yields could easily be increased with lower overheads if only they would open their minds to change.

I'm not sure that higher yields would be of much help when they are sitting on 12 million tonnes of rice, a 50 year high. what has to stop is the pledging scheme, subsidies on gasoline, diesel and propane are also a disaster in waiting.

[pattayaorganic]

The demand for rice will increase as supplies fall.

it is basic economics 101.

I think you meant to say, "The demand for rice will increase as PRICES fall." That is economics 101.

Problem is that falling prices normally sends a signal to farmers not to grow more rice. But the current situation is that it is very lucrative to grow more rice now, so more *unneeded* rice will be produced, putting further pressure on the government to cover the losses.

This is such a huge abomination I do not understand why more of a ruckus is not made on this issue. Shame on PT for implementing the policy and shame on DP for not more actively opposing it. It is too much of a hot potato I guess so anybody opposing this policy will be branded as "anti-farmer". That begs the question though, DP is already portrayed as anti-farmer so what have they got to lose???

[spacebass]

How long before we can buy Indian and Vietnamese rice in Tesco and Big C at the right price........ Oh no must have 200% import duty or so !!!

Was that an ASEAN free trade area ? Yo Ho Ho and a bottle of rum !

[h90]

As importer of tropical foods into the EU I faced so many difficulties, I switched to other origins for many items.

The Thai's still think all the world is waiting for their supreme products, their WORLD FAMOUS kitchen (with the thinnest recipe book), but in reality are overtaken by several countries in the area.

Trying for two WEEKS ! now to get prices + product info for coconut water. NO RESULT, so I contracted Vietnamese goods.

Or as I say: "in Thailand a "seller" is the one, who is able to forward the incoming orders in his/her in-e-mail box, but any other initiative... sent market data to their potential ( yes, NOT ONLY to those who order) customers. like the Chinese are doing so frequently... forget it.. so much work... Interested in ‘order / payment / FOB and then.. the hack, farang pays always… “

Also governmental support is close to nothing. Even hampering Thai export, sent several reminders, but... oh, so difficult, I have to work.. so.. better sit and dream..

Also Thai government is as active as a concrete block in the mud: The former Minister of Commerce, Dr. Supachai Panitchpakdi was so busy to get the sec.-gen of WTO, they forgot to re-apply for GSP import duty preferences into the EU, with result the prices of Thai food products landed went up with a 10 %.

I tried for 3 years to get info from the Thai agricultural attaché at the EU in Brussels, but.. NEVER even a reply.

I tried to send a 500 g ( yes, half kg, not a half ship load) of rice to Thailand for lab test, but.. close to impossible, the receiver in TH had to apply for an import license for rice ( and you all know, how quick Thai gov. works, so imagine what happens if "rice has to be imported". Result, we switched to Basmati rice.

In Vietnam the “children of the fugitives” are returning massively with their expertise “how farang mind ticks”, Myanmar is losing its boycott of the West very rapidly, and China.. is already MILES ahead of TH

As a Thai friend of mine said already 15 years ago: ‘we Thais are so spoiled with easy orders falling in, we want not only the “fried chickens fly into our mouths, but have to be pre-chewed “

As importer of tropical foods into the EU I faced so many difficulties, I switched to other origins for many items.

The Thai's still think all the world is waiting for their supreme products, their WORLD FAMOUS kitchen (with the thinnest recipe book), but in reality are overtaken by several countries in the area.

Trying for two WEEKS ! now to get prices + product info for coconut water. NO RESULT, so I contracted Vietnamese goods.

Or as I say: "in Thailand a "seller" is the one, who is able to forward the incoming orders in his/her in-e-mail box, but any other initiative... sent market data to their potential ( yes, NOT ONLY to those who order) customers. like the Chinese are doing so frequently... forget it.. so much work... Interested in ‘order / payment / FOB and then.. the hack, farang pays always… “

Also Thai governmental support is close to nothing. Even hampering Thai export, sent several reminders, but... oh, so difficult, I have to work.. so.. better sit and dream..

The former Minister of Commerce, Dr. Supachai Panitchpakdi was so busy to get the sec.-gen of WTO, they forgot to re-apply for GSP import duty preferences into the EU, with result the prices of Thai food products landed went up with a 10 %.

I tried for 3 years to get info from the Thai agricultural attaché at the EU in Brussels, but.. NEVER even a reply.

I tried to send a 500 g ( yes, half kg, not a half ship load) of rice to Thailand for lab test, but.. close to impossible: the receiver in TH had to apply for an import license for rice ( and you all know, how quick Thai gov. works, so imagine what happens if "rice has to be imported") . Result, we switched to Basmati rice.

In Vietnam the “children of the fugitives” are returning massively with their expertise “how farang minds ticks”, Myanmar is losing its boycott of the West very rapidly, and China.. is already MILES ahead of TH

As a Thai friend of mine said already 15 years ago: ‘we Thais are so spoiled with easy orders falling in, we want not only the “fried chickens fly into our mouths, but have to be pre-chewed “

your copy/paste posting is double.

the half kg rice story is plain silly....if that is a problem declare it as something different...even call it only "sample" would work. No one looks at small parcels, you could import half a kg plutonium....

[renaissanc]

No mention of the out dated, inefficient & environmentally destructive growing methods that farmers insist on sticking to.

Yields could easily be increased with lower overheads if only they would open their minds to change.

The politicians like to push chemical fertilizers for their own personal benefits. In the eyes of the farmers, all politicans are good people, give good advice, and can do no wrong. Hopefully, they will discover one day that Thaksin doesn't actually have their interests in mind; only his own.

[SouthernMan3]

Rice industry, already lost the title of world's top exporter to India, is heading for disaster in the next few years due to a lack of proper strategic management of the rice-pledging scheme and the country's exports, the Thai Rice Exporters Association said yesterday.

Thank you red government.