No Repeat Of 2011 Flood Horror: Thailand

[MaxLee]

Comforting to learn that Thailand is only five storms away from the 2011 horror, according to the "experts." Is that statistic part of their 100-year-flood plan? Or the every-other-year flood plan?

Or how about the term "We never had a flood plan"

[Buchholz]

No Repeat Of 2011 Flood Horror: Thailand

Thailand Faces Flood Disaster Again

Up to a quarter of Thailand's provinces, including the tourist resort of Ayutthaya, have been inundated by floodwaters amid concerns the government failed to act fast enough to strengthen flood defenses after last year's devastating floods.

Thousands have fled their homes in Northern Thailand after heavy rain caused a major river to overflow at the start of the month, sending up to a meter of water into some towns. So far, four people have died.

Scenes of residents wading through waist-high water and stacking large sandbags around shops and homes in Sukhothai, about 430 km north of the capital Bangkok, are a stark reminder of last year's floods that killed more than 800 people.

Continued:

http://www.thestanda...&d_str=20120912

The Standard - 1 hour ago

.

Edited September 12, 2012 by Buchholz

[MaxLee]

Let the white lies live on… in Waterworld Thailand in the near future as this country is gonna sink deeper and deeper every year with more rain every year.

[Buchholz]

No Repeat Of 2011 Flood Horror: Thailand

Thailand Faces Flood Disaster Again

Up to a quarter of Thailand's provinces, including the tourist resort of Ayutthaya, have been inundated by floodwaters

Ayutthaya must NOT be considered a tourist destination by government tourism officials.

Or, perhaps "inundated by floodwaters" is not an impediment to having "carefree travel".

BANGKOK, 12 September 2012 (NNT) – The Department of Tourism launches a PR campaign to assure foreign tourists of carefree travels to all tourist destinations in Thailand

[thatswhatuthought]

Royol said "continuing flooding in some provinces was mainly the result of unprecedented downpours."

Hahaha. "Unprecedented" really?

[MaxLee]

What have they actually done since the beginning of 2012 except white lying promises?

[thatswhatuthought]

For those political posters here on TV. You can slam this and the last goverments all you want. The coruption in ths country is, has been and will be the same with any government in power for a long time to come. I don't see any red /yellow shirt multi colored shirt supporters out cleaning the existing street drains and other drainage systems. So what are you doing to improve the situation? That's right. Sitting around writing a bunch of pointless biased rants.

[rbrooks]

Thais have many remarkable talents in many areas but it seems that weather predicting and flood control are not one of them.

[alanferdi]

What is this man talking about.... few rains. The worse part of stupidity is hoping in hope!!!! and leading others to do the same. Why dont they begin to mark out the areas that they know would go under and begin to take action? Why give people false hope and then make excuses. Vacate your seat man and give those who are rational in taking action to help the masses who will loose lands, possessions and suffer loss. Put in Boats and the armed personal into these areas and give evacuation orders and route. Prevention is better than cure!! Learn that statement and work out a plan or plan to fail again.

[Scott]

A number of baiting and off-topic posts and replies have been deleted.

It's hard to get concrete information on the amount of rain. It's not going to flood......it's going to flood.....It won't ....It will.... Maybe...maybe not. It gets confusing.

I read earlier that the rainfall is 20% less than last year. 20% means little without a figure for what is normal. There are a lot of variables resulting in floods and I would feel much more comfortable if there were specialists instead of politicians releasing information.

Edited September 12, 2012 by Scott

[Thai at Heart]

A number of baiting and off-topic posts and replies have been deleted.

It's hard to get concrete information on the amount of rain. It's not going to flood......it's going to flood.....It won't ....It will.... Maybe...maybe not. It gets confusing.

I read earlier that the rainfall is 20% less than last year. 20% means little without a figure for what is normal. There are a lot of variables resulting in floods and I would feel much more comfortable if there were specialists instead of politicians releasing information.

In the north it was 50% above norm from may onwards last year. Do the maths. This year is still above average by a long way. But the sand have been emptied they claim.

[indyuk]

The current status of Bhumipol and Sirikit Dams Brimming is completely at odds of with what was agreed with the government which is that fill would be kept below 65% of capacity until the peak risk period. I always thought that 50% would be more appropriate. So now we are at the threshold of peak risk and there is no capacity to hold back new run off! That alone suggests that the plan is failing. OMG hope I'm wrong!

[ResX]

The current status of Bhumipol and Sirikit Dams Brimming is completely at odds of with what was agreed with the government which is that fill would be kept below 65% of capacity until the peak risk period. I always thought that 50% would be more appropriate. So now we are at the threshold of peak risk and there is no capacity to hold back new run off! That alone suggests that the plan is failing. OMG hope I'm wrong!

You mean Bhumibol and Sirkit have already fully filled? I hope you are wrong.

[nong38]

They had a year so to raise the walls of the river banks and and still there's flooding???

How did that happen?

[whybother]

For those political posters here on TV. You can slam this and the last goverments all you want. The coruption in ths country is, has been and will be the same with any government in power for a long time to come. I don't see any red /yellow shirt multi colored shirt supporters out cleaning the existing street drains and other drainage systems. So what are you doing to improve the situation? That's right. Sitting around writing a bunch of pointless biased rants.

Pot, meet Kettle.

[Buchholz]

Residents hit hard by last year's flood in Nonthaburi and Pathum Thani can expect to be flooded again in some areas this year according to the PM Yingluck yesterday.

More details in this morning's other paper.

.

[Thai at Heart]

Residents hit hard by last year's flood in Nonthaburi and Pathum Thani can expect to be flooded again in some areas this year according to the PM Yingluck yesterday.

More details in this morning's other paper.

.

Well, maybe we can expect some massive political ructions.

For such an incompetent effort, should it come to reality, get rid of them all.

They obviously have never tried a piss up in a Brewery.

[saltandpepper]

Residents hit hard by last year's flood in Nonthaburi and Pathum Thani can expect to be flooded again in some areas this year according to the PM Yingluck yesterday.

More details in this morning's other paper.

.

So, what are we supposed to believe? When she says that there will be no repeat of last year floods, when she says that government has done everything to ensure that no floods disaster will occur, when she says that they do their best, when she says that some parts of Bangkok area will be flooded again, or.....what ? Every day another story, usually contradicting the statement of the day before.

Why doesn't she try to find a real professional in floods management, and a real professional in communication?

Or are we supposed to be fed with "white lies" again and again for our peace of mind?

[Mosha]

A number of baiting and off-topic posts and replies have been deleted.

It's hard to get concrete information on the amount of rain. It's not going to flood......it's going to flood.....It won't ....It will.... Maybe...maybe not. It gets confusing.

I read earlier that the rainfall is 20% less than last year. 20% means little without a figure for what is normal. There are a lot of variables resulting in floods and I would feel much more comfortable if there were specialists instead of politicians releasing information.

Scott I use this link to check on the rainfall. Already we are at last years total 4.5m and it's still pissing it down.

http://www.tmd.go.th/en/climate.php

Edited September 13, 2012 by Mosha

[Nowhereman60]

Honestly, we will have no flooding this year, jing, jing, no lie. "As he drives away with his flat bottom boat in toe"

[Mosha]

Using the link I posted, we are so far 10% above "normal" rainfall. We are currently getting around 8" a day.

[Thaddeus]

Using the link I posted, we are so far 10% above "normal" rainfall. We are currently getting around 8" a day.

As the actress said to the bishop.

(sorry, but it is very difficult to take any subject about floods here seriously)

Edited September 13, 2012 by Thaddeus

[mahtin]

Speaking of bishops, what are the chances of divine intervention, 'cos that's about all that's left.

[Thai at Heart]

Speaking of bishops, what are the chances of divine intervention, 'cos that's about all that's left.

Well, in the land of Buddha/Karma, one could easily reconcile it with "What goes around comes around". Thousands of people are going to pay for all of these corrupt people dipping their fingers into the 120 bn, and basically doing very little for the last 9 months.

Of course, one day, those that suffer for the corrupt actions of others are going to want their recompense also, and that is not going to be a pretty thing to watch.

Edited September 13, 2012 by Thai at Heart

[phiphidon]

A number of baiting and off-topic posts and replies have been deleted.

It's hard to get concrete information on the amount of rain. It's not going to flood......it's going to flood.....It won't ....It will.... Maybe...maybe not. It gets confusing.

I read earlier that the rainfall is 20% less than last year. 20% means little without a figure for what is normal. There are a lot of variables resulting in floods and I would feel much more comfortable if there were specialists instead of politicians releasing information.

Well to be brutally honest I'd probably not rely on reports from The Nation to base your actions on if I were you. You could have a look at this and it may ease your fears

In the below image, for 2011 you have the actual levels of rainfall in the North and Central Regions. The 2012 figures are from the Meteorological Department and is their prediction on rain over the rainy season. Both figures are in mm:

BP: Even assuming the worst-case scenario, it is not as much rain as 2011. It is not impossible we will have more rain in 2012, but there are no signs either in the first 5 months of this year or the forecast to expect suddenly for the rain to reach a new record high over the next 5 months.

In addition, we still have more capacity in the dams to take on additional water so even in the worse-case scenario this won’t necessitate the panicked release of large quantities of water in September and October 2011.

We can have discharges of water from the dams earlier in July-August, in particular, to reduce the level of intake into the dams.

Looking at all the data, there is no evidence to suggest we will have a severe flood like 2012 or even a flood approaching that level.

BP will look again at the end of August/beginning of September for an update.

http://asiancorrespo...ailand-in-2012/

So here is the update

What about the forecast for additional rain for the rest of the year?

In the below image, for 2011 you have the actual levels of rainfall in the North and Central Regions. The 2012 prediction figures are from the Meteorological Department and is their prediction on rain over the rainy season. Then to see how the Met. Department has done so far in their prediction, BP has included the actual rainfall figures for June and July 2012. All figures are in mm:

BP: The rainfall in July 2012 for the Central Region exceeded the worst-case scenario, but for the North and for both regions in June it hasn’t. In fact, in June it was was below the prediction. Of course, this suggests the weather is unpredictable, but it also means it has been up and down. For there to even have any possibility of a severe flood, there has to be consistently above normal rainfall so far. There just hasn’t been.

CONCLUSION: We still have more capacity in the dams to take on additional water so even in the worse-case scenario this won’t necessitate the panicked release of large quantities of water in September and October like we had last year. Rainfall is only slightly above normal so far this year. Looking at all the data, there is no evidence to suggest we will have a severe flood like 2011* or even a flood approaching that level.

http://asiancorrespo...t-2012-version/

The whole of both articles is worth reading and seems to be sound information.

[Thai at Heart]

A number of baiting and off-topic posts and replies have been deleted.

It's hard to get concrete information on the amount of rain. It's not going to flood......it's going to flood.....It won't ....It will.... Maybe...maybe not. It gets confusing.

I read earlier that the rainfall is 20% less than last year. 20% means little without a figure for what is normal. There are a lot of variables resulting in floods and I would feel much more comfortable if there were specialists instead of politicians releasing information.

Well to be brutally honest I'd probably not rely on reports from The Nation to base your actions on if I were you. You could have a look at this and it may ease your fears

In the below image, for 2011 you have the actual levels of rainfall in the North and Central Regions. The 2012 figures are from the Meteorological Department and is their prediction on rain over the rainy season. Both figures are in mm:

BP: Even assuming the worst-case scenario, it is not as much rain as 2011. It is not impossible we will have more rain in 2012, but there are no signs either in the first 5 months of this year or the forecast to expect suddenly for the rain to reach a new record high over the next 5 months.

In addition, we still have more capacity in the dams to take on additional water so even in the worse-case scenario this won’t necessitate the panicked release of large quantities of water in September and October 2011.

We can have discharges of water from the dams earlier in July-August, in particular, to reduce the level of intake into the dams.

Looking at all the data, there is no evidence to suggest we will have a severe flood like 2012 or even a flood approaching that level.

BP will look again at the end of August/beginning of September for an update.

http://asiancorrespo...ailand-in-2012/

So here is the update

What about the forecast for additional rain for the rest of the year?

In the below image, for 2011 you have the actual levels of rainfall in the North and Central Regions. The 2012 prediction figures are from the Meteorological Department and is their prediction on rain over the rainy season. Then to see how the Met. Department has done so far in their prediction, BP has included the actual rainfall figures for June and July 2012. All figures are in mm:

BP: The rainfall in July 2012 for the Central Region exceeded the worst-case scenario, but for the North and for both regions in June it hasn’t. In fact, in June it was was below the prediction. Of course, this suggests the weather is unpredictable, but it also means it has been up and down. For there to even have any possibility of a severe flood, there has to be consistently above normal rainfall so far. There just hasn’t been.

CONCLUSION: We still have more capacity in the dams to take on additional water so even in the worse-case scenario this won’t necessitate the panicked release of large quantities of water in September and October like we had last year. Rainfall is only slightly above normal so far this year. Looking at all the data, there is no evidence to suggest we will have a severe flood like 2011* or even a flood approaching that level.

http://asiancorrespo...t-2012-version/

The whole of both articles is worth reading and seems to be sound information.

http://www.tmd.go.th/en/

A wealth of historical data for the whole country to be found in here. Takes a bit of digging but, monthly rainfall for the whole country is available.

[ResX]

A number of baiting and off-topic posts and replies have been deleted.

It's hard to get concrete information on the amount of rain. It's not going to flood......it's going to flood.....It won't ....It will.... Maybe...maybe not. It gets confusing.

I read earlier that the rainfall is 20% less than last year. 20% means little without a figure for what is normal. There are a lot of variables resulting in floods and I would feel much more comfortable if there were specialists instead of politicians releasing information.

Well to be brutally honest I'd probably not rely on reports from The Nation to base your actions on if I were you. You could have a look at this and it may ease your fears

In the below image, for 2011 you have the actual levels of rainfall in the North and Central Regions. The 2012 figures are from the Meteorological Department and is their prediction on rain over the rainy season. Both figures are in mm:

BP: Even assuming the worst-case scenario, it is not as much rain as 2011. It is not impossible we will have more rain in 2012, but there are no signs either in the first 5 months of this year or the forecast to expect suddenly for the rain to reach a new record high over the next 5 months.

In addition, we still have more capacity in the dams to take on additional water so even in the worse-case scenario this won’t necessitate the panicked release of large quantities of water in September and October 2011.

We can have discharges of water from the dams earlier in July-August, in particular, to reduce the level of intake into the dams.

Looking at all the data, there is no evidence to suggest we will have a severe flood like 2012 or even a flood approaching that level.

BP will look again at the end of August/beginning of September for an update.

http://asiancorrespo...ailand-in-2012/

So here is the update

What about the forecast for additional rain for the rest of the year?

In the below image, for 2011 you have the actual levels of rainfall in the North and Central Regions. The 2012 prediction figures are from the Meteorological Department and is their prediction on rain over the rainy season. Then to see how the Met. Department has done so far in their prediction, BP has included the actual rainfall figures for June and July 2012. All figures are in mm:

BP: The rainfall in July 2012 for the Central Region exceeded the worst-case scenario, but for the North and for both regions in June it hasn’t. In fact, in June it was was below the prediction. Of course, this suggests the weather is unpredictable, but it also means it has been up and down. For there to even have any possibility of a severe flood, there has to be consistently above normal rainfall so far. There just hasn’t been.

CONCLUSION: We still have more capacity in the dams to take on additional water so even in the worse-case scenario this won’t necessitate the panicked release of large quantities of water in September and October like we had last year. Rainfall is only slightly above normal so far this year. Looking at all the data, there is no evidence to suggest we will have a severe flood like 2011* or even a flood approaching that level.

http://asiancorrespo...t-2012-version/

The whole of both articles is worth reading and seems to be sound information.

Yup. He made reference to last year's flood. That doesn't mean no floods. I have overall conclusion similar to him. To have intensity of flood equivalent to the 2011 is far fatched. The worst case scenario for this year that I can predict for this year is about 50- 60% of the 2011 flood. The most likely scenario is about 10-20% of the last year's flood, taking into consideration that the fatal "water mismanagement" in 2011 does not appear anymore this year. If you are among the first 10-20% being hit by the floods last year, then you have all the reasons to worry by now since these published figure do not look good.

His prediction, as good as mine valid as long as Bhumibol and Sirkit dam can keep their sluice gates water tight. Once they have to go through forced releases his prediction and mine will become null and void. Once it happens, the fact that the worst case scenario depends on who operates the sluice gates and how much he knows the consequences for every 0.3m lift of the gates and the consequences for not lifting them..

[HiSoLowSoNoSo]

Dear Taxpayers, thanks for the 120Bn. It will be a wet evening here in Dubai as well.

[siampreggers]

Jeez, one heavy rain yesterday and outside Zeer Rangsit (and that area) were flooded along Viphawadee.

What's going on with Ayutthaya now? If flood waters from Sukhothai come through then how far are they going to go. If they get to Rangsit than it's nightmare time all over again.

[ResX]

Jeez, one heavy rain yesterday and outside Zeer Rangsit (and that area) were flooded along Viphawadee.

What's going on with Ayutthaya now? If flood waters from Sukhothai come through then how far are they going to go. If they get to Rangsit than it's nightmare time all over again.

I don't know for sure but I like to know what those two dams in north doing with their skuice gates? It is bad idea if they were kept opened since the last one month.