Tropical Storm Gaemi To Cover Wider Area In Thailand

[hellodolly]

I can already hear the sound of property values rising in Chiang Mai.

Last year they sure did and the number of new condos to be built rose dramatically.

[hellodolly]

First off, a tropical storm doesn't have an "eye". Typhoon/Hurricanes do. Tropical storm Gaemi will move onshore lower Vietnam this evening and by Sunday morning will no longer be a tropical storm as it moves into Cambodia. It will weaken. It will just be an area of low pressure that will move westward and affect the eastern and lower north and upper south of Thailand starting Sunday night and Monday. The storm will not regenerate over the Gulf of Thailand. It will continue west and out over the Andaman Sea by Tuesday. That being said, rainfall along the path with the remnants of tropical systems can be, and in this case, will be heavy. In the US, usually 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200mm) of rain can be expected and depending on the speed of the system, maybe more. Probably the same can be expected in localized areas along the path in Thailand. Heavy rain for Bangkok on Monday.

"Thai authorities will confirm the change in Gaemi's course tomorrow, even though several meteorological reports from international sources have suggested its change." The Thai's a little behind the power curve again. The forecast tracks from the different weather models, except for the one crazy AFWI, seem to be pretty good. These tracks do not mean that there is still a tropical storm, it is just tracking the weather system or what's left of it thru out the forecast time frame.

As for down in Phuket, the Southwest Monsoon will intensify as the system moves westward and be what brings heavier rainfall down in that area. Everyone should have some extra rain.

Ok, weather class 101 is now over with.

Not quite sure of why Phuket will get heaver rain. The maps all showed the weather system well north of Phuket.

[h90]

Water agency urges public to monitor advice from local authorities for storm Gaemi

And do the opposite.

yes when they told us last year "no panic, no hording" we panicked and did hording. Than we were flooded 1 month long and had enough horded food.

This year we also wait till the government tells us "no hording"="hording now"

[webfact]

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 6 Oct, 2012 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm GAEMI (21W) currently located near 13.0 N 110.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Vietnam

probability for TS is 90% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Tuy Hoa (13.1 N, 109.3 E)

probability for TS is 90% currently

Qui Nhon (13.8 N, 109.2 E)

probability for TS is 75% currently

Nha Trang (12.2 N, 109.2 E)

probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

[Old Croc]

First off, a tropical storm doesn't have an "eye". Typhoon/Hurricanes do. Tropical storm Gaemi will move onshore lower Vietnam this evening and by Sunday morning will no longer be a tropical storm as it moves into Cambodia. It will weaken. It will just be an area of low pressure that will move westward and affect the eastern and lower north and upper south of Thailand starting Sunday night and Monday. The storm will not regenerate over the Gulf of Thailand. It will continue west and out over the Andaman Sea by Tuesday. That being said, rainfall along the path with the remnants of tropical systems can be, and in this case, will be heavy. In the US, usually 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200mm) of rain can be expected and depending on the speed of the system, maybe more. Probably the same can be expected in localized areas along the path in Thailand. Heavy rain for Bangkok on Monday.

"Thai authorities will confirm the change in Gaemi's course tomorrow, even though several meteorological reports from international sources have suggested its change." The Thai's a little behind the power curve again. The forecast tracks from the different weather models, except for the one crazy AFWI, seem to be pretty good. These tracks do not mean that there is still a tropical storm, it is just tracking the weather system or what's left of it thru out the forecast time frame.

As for down in Phuket, the Southwest Monsoon will intensify as the system moves westward and be what brings heavier rainfall down in that area. Everyone should have some extra rain.

Ok, weather class 101 is now over with.

Not quite sure of why Phuket will get heaver rain. The maps all showed the weather system well north of Phuket.

For those who think that the tracking map showing the "eye" of the storm well clear of Phuket means the weather won't be affected should have a look at the satellite picture of associated cloud.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/wp201221_sat.html

[how241]

First off, a tropical storm doesn't have an "eye". Typhoon/Hurricanes do. Tropical storm Gaemi will move onshore lower Vietnam this evening and by Sunday morning will no longer be a tropical storm as it moves into Cambodia. It will weaken. It will just be an area of low pressure that will move westward and affect the eastern and lower north and upper south of Thailand starting Sunday night and Monday. The storm will not regenerate over the Gulf of Thailand. It will continue west and out over the Andaman Sea by Tuesday. That being said, rainfall along the path with the remnants of tropical systems can be, and in this case, will be heavy. In the US, usually 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200mm) of rain can be expected and depending on the speed of the system, maybe more. Probably the same can be expected in localized areas along the path in Thailand. Heavy rain for Bangkok on Monday.

"Thai authorities will confirm the change in Gaemi's course tomorrow, even though several meteorological reports from international sources have suggested its change." The Thai's a little behind the power curve again. The forecast tracks from the different weather models, except for the one crazy AFWI, seem to be pretty good. These tracks do not mean that there is still a tropical storm, it is just tracking the weather system or what's left of it thru out the forecast time frame.

As for down in Phuket, the Southwest Monsoon will intensify as the system moves westward and be what brings heavier rainfall down in that area. Everyone should have some extra rain.

Ok, weather class 101 is now over with.

Thanks. Lots of good info here.

[Old Croc]

First off, a tropical storm doesn't have an "eye". Typhoon/Hurricanes do. Tropical storm Gaemi will move onshore lower Vietnam this evening and by Sunday morning will no longer be a tropical storm as it moves into Cambodia. It will weaken. It will just be an area of low pressure that will move westward and affect the eastern and lower north and upper south of Thailand starting Sunday night and Monday. The storm will not regenerate over the Gulf of Thailand. It will continue west and out over the Andaman Sea by Tuesday. That being said, rainfall along the path with the remnants of tropical systems can be, and in this case, will be heavy. In the US, usually 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200mm) of rain can be expected and depending on the speed of the system, maybe more. Probably the same can be expected in localized areas along the path in Thailand. Heavy rain for Bangkok on Monday.

"Thai authorities will confirm the change in Gaemi's course tomorrow, even though several meteorological reports from international sources have suggested its change." The Thai's a little behind the power curve again. The forecast tracks from the different weather models, except for the one crazy AFWI, seem to be pretty good. These tracks do not mean that there is still a tropical storm, it is just tracking the weather system or what's left of it thru out the forecast time frame.

As for down in Phuket, the Southwest Monsoon will intensify as the system moves westward and be what brings heavier rainfall down in that area. Everyone should have some extra rain.

Ok, weather class 101 is now over with.

Thanks. Lots of good info here.

To the weatherman;

Why are you so certain it won't regenerate over the warm waters of the gulf of Thailand?

I remember a cyclone in Australia a few years back that was downgraded to trop. storm after crossing the Qld coast, regenerated in the Gulf of Carpenterior, downgraded again over the Northern Territory, and was once again upgraded to a cyclone off the Kimberley coast of Western Australia.

[Soutpeel]

Why are you so certain it won't regenerate over the warm waters of the gulf of Thailand?

Because the predicted track will not take it over the the GOT, and even if the remaining low pressure system did, it did it would only clip the upper part of the gulf, not enough open water for it to regenerate into anything

[1weatherman]

First off, a tropical storm doesn't have an "eye". Typhoon/Hurricanes do. Tropical storm Gaemi will move onshore lower Vietnam this evening and by Sunday morning will no longer be a tropical storm as it moves into Cambodia. It will weaken. It will just be an area of low pressure that will move westward and affect the eastern and lower north and upper south of Thailand starting Sunday night and Monday. The storm will not regenerate over the Gulf of Thailand. It will continue west and out over the Andaman Sea by Tuesday. That being said, rainfall along the path with the remnants of tropical systems can be, and in this case, will be heavy. In the US, usually 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200mm) of rain can be expected and depending on the speed of the system, maybe more. Probably the same can be expected in localized areas along the path in Thailand. Heavy rain for Bangkok on Monday.

"Thai authorities will confirm the change in Gaemi's course tomorrow, even though several meteorological reports from international sources have suggested its change." The Thai's a little behind the power curve again. The forecast tracks from the different weather models, except for the one crazy AFWI, seem to be pretty good. These tracks do not mean that there is still a tropical storm, it is just tracking the weather system or what's left of it thru out the forecast time frame.

As for down in Phuket, the Southwest Monsoon will intensify as the system moves westward and be what brings heavier rainfall down in that area. Everyone should have some extra rain.

Ok, weather class 101 is now over with.

Thanks. Lots of good info here.

To the weatherman;

Why are you so certain it won't regenerate over the warm waters of the gulf of Thailand?

I remember a cyclone in Australia a few years back that was downgraded to trop. storm after crossing the Qld coast, regenerated in the Gulf of Carpenterior, downgraded again over the Northern Territory, and was once again upgraded to a cyclone off the Kimberley coast of Western Australia.

The new data shows that the circulation center of the remains of Gaemi will move over the Bay of Bangkok on Monday. This is not a big enough area of warm water to cause regeneration. And the low pressure will be moving at a good clip, around 15 mph/25kph, to the west so it won't be over water long enough to develop. If it stopped, which it won't, then maybe. It is possible that once the low pressure moves over the Andaman Sea and then into the Bay of Bengal it will regenerate into a tropical system. Much more warm waters to work with.

Or as Soutpeel said. Didn't see that post until after I went thru a long-winded explanation.

Edited October 6, 2012 by 1weatherman

[tominbkk]

So will this actually hit BKK in any significant way? Or will it just be regular heavy rain? Just curious.

[Soutpeel]

So will this actually hit BKK in any significant way? Or will it just be regular heavy rain? Just curious.

They system itself is not going to hit BKK, but you will see heavy rain one suspects

Edited October 6, 2012 by Soutpeel

[tinfoilhat]

yet more hysteria ensues

[bangon04]

the Department of Disaster Prevention and Litigation held a teleconfer-ence with the provincial governors

what a good opportunity to serve them all with notice that they are being sued for incompetence.....

Perhaps all government departments should have a Litigation section added to their portfolios....plenty of work to do.

[moskito]

yet more hysteria ensues

I belive it will hit Phuket.... I SALE my 1 Rai land for an Apple and an egg + 10million, cheap as hell, incl. a dog and a car...umbrellas and raincoates ANYBODY ?

[Cardiff1963]

First off, a tropical storm doesn't have an "eye". Typhoon/Hurricanes do. Tropical storm Gaemi will move onshore lower Vietnam this evening and by Sunday morning will no longer be a tropical storm as it moves into Cambodia. It will weaken. It will just be an area of low pressure that will move westward and affect the eastern and lower north and upper south of Thailand starting Sunday night and Monday. The storm will not regenerate over the Gulf of Thailand. It will continue west and out over the Andaman Sea by Tuesday. That being said, rainfall along the path with the remnants of tropical systems can be, and in this case, will be heavy. In the US, usually 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200mm) of rain can be expected and depending on the speed of the system, maybe more. Probably the same can be expected in localized areas along the path in Thailand. Heavy rain for Bangkok on Monday.

"Thai authorities will confirm the change in Gaemi's course tomorrow, even though several meteorological reports from international sources have suggested its change." The Thai's a little behind the power curve again. The forecast tracks from the different weather models, except for the one crazy AFWI, seem to be pretty good. These tracks do not mean that there is still a tropical storm, it is just tracking the weather system or what's left of it thru out the forecast time frame.

As for down in Phuket, the Southwest Monsoon will intensify as the system moves westward and be what brings heavier rainfall down in that area. Everyone should have some extra rain.

Ok, weather class 101 is now over with.

oow

[SeaVisionBurma]

I belive it will hit Phuket.... I SALE my 1 Rai land for an Apple and an egg + 10million, cheap as hell, incl. a dog and a car...umbrellas and raincoates ANYBODY ?

I'll buy it. Apple what? iPhone5? Don't need the egg. You can keep the car. I'll have the dog and the umbrella though...

[Scott]

A post with an oversized picture has been deleted. Posting huge pictures causes multiple problems for readers and the forum formatting.

[scotbeve]

I can already hear the sound of property values rising in Chiang Mai.

One can only wish....

[whybother]

Has it started raining anywhere yet? I expected to wake up this morning with a foot of water out the front.

[Mosha]

Has it started raining anywhere yet? I expected to wake up this morning with a foot of water out the front.

It's hardly stopped down here since April