China Conducts Successful Landing On First Aircraft Carrier

[Publicus]

The CCP-PRC knows it's a long way from forming, organizing and operating an effective aircraft carrier battle group of up to a dozen ships to include nuclear powered attack submarines. Meanwhile India has one carrier and two more on order. Japan also has one small carrier and group with two more in the works.

Beijing knows it cannot become a global power, a naval one especially, unless it first can become a regional power. Hence its broad maritime assertions in the South China Sea, the East Sea and anywhere else it believes it can bully smaller and weaker governments and countries.

The reality is that the PLA Navy are fish in a barrel. And a very small barrel at that. Beijing isn't going to be able to break out of its inner ring of islands region ten years from now with one small flotilla of warships assembled around a previously owned aircraft carrier that has a dozen fighter planes hanging off it. The CCP-PRC is in a region of nations whose economies are strong and which have strong naval capacities in the present which will only increase in the immediate future because of the usual foolhardy decisions of predictable fascist dictators, this time in Beijing.

This one PLA Navy aircraft carrier and one plane that landed on it yesterday is either a joke or a diversion. Neither is a good place for Beijing to be. Nobody trusts the gang of thug dictators in Beijing, aircraft carrier or not.

I hope you are right, but you appear to overlook the fact that China is currently constructing 3, possibly as many as 5, carriers with the aim of having the reach and potential to dominate the western Pacific out to what it calls the Second Island Chain (see below). Interesting article below which highlights that the cost of such a strategy may well be the biggest hurdle to PLAN's blue-water dream.

http://www.atimes.co...a/NK16Ad01.html

And if you are interested here is a longer, more detailed article (including a fascinating account of how China acquired 3 ex-Soviet carriers in a somewhat underhand style).

HMAS Melbourne was a real gift to China allowing it to study the construction methods (albeit 1940/50 style) and after it was scrapped the flight deck was kept for flight training.

http://www.globalsec...04/art6-w04.htm

I am right but I'm not one of the Allied military leaders who as a whole present the original thesis, i.e., I only rely on the experts and convey their newest thinking, syntheses and findings. The Pentagon and other leading Western militaries know that it will take a decade for Beijing to get one (previously owned)carrier at the center of an organized, somewhat reasonably effective battle group of warships, both surface, air and undersea. Pilots need to be trained and, as I point out in my previous post, thousands and thousands of Chinese PLANavy operational and support personnel will need to be trained to instantaneously function in ways - as has also been pointed out by other forumists - that the United States and the UK, just to name two navies, first learned 60 years ago. I refer of course to the operational effectiveness and the defense of aircraft carrier battle groups. And where is Beijing going to get huge numbers of expert/experienced personnel to do the training of these thousands of carrier battle group personnel???

In respect to the map you present, the concern about one or more PLAN aircraft carrier battle groups operating some ten to twenty years from now is of far less concern to the U.S. Navy than is the focus by Beijing on missles. Beijing likes missles so that's what they're really working at. Beijing claims to have a ballistic missle that can sink aircraft carriers but it's never been tested under real conditions, i.e,. on the sea. Land testing is useless to demonstrate the actual viability of this type of missle (whose purpose is to hit an aircraft carrier in motion on the high seas). So while the U.S. knows this CCP missle exists, it knows the same as Beijing concerning the missle's efficacy - diddlysquat.

The PRChinese still suffer the humiliation of Prez Clinton sending two aircraft carrier battle groups to the Strait of Taiwan while Beijing was firing missles - there we have missles again - within meters of Taiwan for seven days. The PRChinese still fume that the U.S. Carrier Battle Groups forced Beijing to cease and desist its missle firings intended to intimidate Taiwan on its upcoming democratic elections. So the aircraft carrier remains a highly visibile symbol of U.S. Naval power on the global scale, and in a most seriously sensitive matter to the PRChinese, i.e., its idiot attempts to intimidate democracy in both Taiwan and the United States.

Further, the so called ‘China seas’ – the Yellow, East China and South China Seas – have long been regarded by the self-centered Chinese as their offshore preserve. Heavy maritime traffic, driven by fellow Asian nations’ voracious appetite for Chinese goods, plied these waters in dynastic times. Indeed, these nautical thoroughfares were integral to the China-centric maritime order, which quickly and easily collapsed after the fleets of China’s last dynasty, the osssified Qing gang, suffered humiliating reverses at the hands of British and other Western imperial Naval powers, and Japan.

The great concern in world capitals is that Beijing's capacity to influence events at sea with its missile forces could thus buttress the PRChina's sense of entitlement over these and other large bodies of Asian waters. Whether the CCP-PRC would seek to employ its arsenal as arbiter of US military presence in Asia remains to be seen. But that very possibility suggests that having U.S. Naval forces operate within about 1,000 miles of China’s coast is going to get increasingly risky due to a whole range of threats – aircraft, surface ships, submarines, and now ballistic missiles. A U.S. president or Pacific forces commander is going to think long and hard before he sends major surface ships into that area in a crisis and risks having the first aircraft carrier lost due to enemy action since World War II.

However, the U.S. fleets contain defensive radar systems that can enter the guidance system of oncoming missles to reprogram and instruct the missle to turn completely around, to return to its point of origin. Air Force One has had this defensive capabiity for almost a score years and had to use the system once on takeoff in Africa while Bill Cliinton was president. The same system in principle was used just recently when insurgents in Iraq unsuccessfully ground launched a Russian made missle at a C-130 U.S. Military Air Transport craft on takeoff which was carrying three members of the U.S. House of Representatives. In 2002, a failed attempt was made to shoot down an Israeli airliner taking off from Mombasa, Kenya, foiled by the same defensive system used by Air Force One,

The CCP's missile threat to maritime disputes is a real and growing one that is far more serious than the very distant problems that Beijing's fantasyland of several carrier battle groups could ever pose.

Edited December 3, 2012 by Publicus

[maidu]

As China develops one, two or 3 carrier groups, it will have them venture further afield, flexing their muscles. Perhaps it will be similar to the 'Cold War' when Soviet bombers would test and tease, to see how/where they could light up US defenses in the Aleutians and Alaska. Americans would do the same, going the other direction. Stand-offs would be better than direct confrontation, but I think confrontation is in the cards, particulary in lieu of unresolved issues between China and nearly all its neighbors which it shares waterways with (Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, Philippines). If tensions rose between any of the those countries and China, the US would be compelled to side against China.

[Publicus]

Let's not forget India and Japan in all of this. Last month India and Japan for the first time held joint Naval manoevers in the East Sea aka: Sea of Japan.

In fact India announced today it is preparing to send Navy ships to the South China Sea to protect its oil interest contracts with Vietnam at islets claimed by Beijing: http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_indian-navy-prepared-to-deploy-to-south-china-sea-to-protect-oil-interests_1772957

In respect to India and China, I offer this link entitled "Asia's giants could be on collision course" http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2011/09/08/2003512721

And Taiwan has its own anti-Beijing aircraft carrier missle: :http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/12529/to-counter-chinas-military-build-up-taiwan-must-go-asymmetric

And Jakarta wonders whether China is its neighbor (or anyone's neighbor): :http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2011/08/08/is-china-a-neighbor-indonesia.html

[folium]

Looks like the days of manned carrier aviation are numbered..

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htnavai/articles/20121128.aspx

[folium]

This is where Chinese carrier pilots have been training at Wuhan Naval Research Centre....Not much wave action here.

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=Huangjia+Lake,+china&hl=en&ll=30.423147,114.262651&spn=0.00148,0.00284&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=44.339735,93.076172&t=h&z=19

[maidu]

Let's not forget India and Japan in all of this. Last month India and Japan for the first time held joint Naval manoevers in the East Sea aka: Sea of Japan.

In fact India announced today it is preparing to send Navy ships to the South China Sea to protect its oil interest contracts with Vietnam at islets claimed by Beijing: http://www.dnaindia....terests_1772957

In respect to India and China, I offer this link entitled "Asia's giants could be on collision course" http://www.taipeitim...9/08/2003512721

And Taiwan has its own anti-Beijing aircraft carrier missle: :http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/12529/to-counter-chinas-military-build-up-taiwan-must-go-asymmetric

And Jakarta wonders whether China is its neighbor (or anyone's neighbor): :http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2011/08/08/is-china-a-neighbor-indonesia.html

Thanks for the interesting links. Europe started two world wars last century, though Japan jumped in on the second one. China had numerous wars during the 19th and 20th centuries. Indeed, more Chinese died from internal military conflicts during the 20th century, than in fighting against foreigners. In the big scheme of things, the next WW will likely get started in Asia, and quite possibly in response to China's coveting disputed territories.

Though, we won't really know for sure, until the mushroom clouds start showing on the horizon. WWIII could just as well get started in the Middle East or Pakistan.

Edited December 4, 2012 by maidu

[maidu]

The plot thickens. I had heard Indonesia had a dispute with China over one or more islands, but it wasn't until reading the link mentioned above in the Jakarta Post, that I realized it refers to the Natuna Islands. Those islands are, as are all the other disputed islands in the S.China Sea, located much further from China than they are from the other claimant countries. So let's do a tally: First, the countries which have territorial disputes with China over islands: Philippines, Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia, Brunei. Malaysia and South Korea could probably be on that list also. Then there is India, with disputes over several border demarcations. If Tibet is included, then China has active territorial disputes with between 8 and 10 of its neighbors. That's a lot of disputes. They're going to need more than an aircraft carrier to gain success with their land grabs.

Edited December 4, 2012 by maidu

[Publicus]

Looks like the days of manned carrier aviation are numbered..

https://www.strategy...s/20121128.aspx

Yes, the U.S. UCAV X-47B became operational two years ago, was conceptualized more than a decade ago. A USN aircraft carrier battle group of surface and undersea warships has formidable defenses - one could say awesome defenses - but the aircraft carrier continues to remain a rich target to an enemy, especially to an enemy which has a strong strategic (and tactical) reliance on missles, as Beijing does have. The two approaches to naval warfare, i.e., the carrier battle group vs the offensive missle onslaught need to be tested, which is why I am one who foresees a low intensity engagement occurring between the CCP-PRC and the U.S. and certain of our allies, such as Japan and/or S Korea for instance, over disputed islets that might be seized by Beijing. Such a limited conflict, viewed as such by both sides, would test the defensive capability of the carrier battle group and the effectiveness of the bombardment of of the group by missles launched from land, sea and air. In the meantime, Beijing positively continues to prefer to pass on creating several carrier battle groups while the U.S. continues to find them useful in the developing Cold War between the U.S. and the PRC.

In a for real hot war It really makes no difference whether carrier aircraft are piloted or not piloted if a swarm of missles can sink the thing. Conversely, a swarm of missles isn't going to accomplish much when sophisticated defensive systems can penetrate their guidance systems to send them off target. As I'd mentioned elsewhere, Air Force One has such defensive systems that can cause dozens of missles fired simultaneously from all points of the compass to reverse flight and course to be returned to their point of origin (ouch!). It's anyway a long standing principle of military conflict, i.e., each time the other guy builds a bigger and better battle axe, your principal response is to rehew your shield to better absorb or deflect the assault blow. Only nuclear warfare has negated this reality. But then again, the Chinese have gone in big for biological warfare - genetic biological warfare, i.e., the kind that kills only caucasians, or only negroid peoples and the like. Still in the R&D stages I'm told.

[koheesti]

What countries have aircraft carriers now?

US has the lion's share, of course. Down the line: UK, France, Russia, and possibly China (if you count the one they're testing). Oh, and Thailand, if it doesn't matter whether it has planes to launch. Perhaps a few others.

Also keep in mind that the USA has super carriers which are much larger than others...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supercarrier

[maidu]

How do the Chinese stack up regarding subs?

[metisdead]

How do the Chinese stack up regarding subs?

As this topic is regarding air craft carriers, I believe discussion of subs would be off topic.

[Publicus]

How do the Chinese stack up regarding subs?

As this topic is regarding air craft carriers, I believe discussion of subs would be off topic.

If I may comment - attack submarines are integral to an aircraft carrier battle group. The typical carrier group has two attack submarines with it. The matter of submarines is central to the discussion of carrier battle groups both defensively and on the offense. The motto of the U.S. submarine service is to "run silent, run deep." Conversely, Chinese nuclear submarines sound like crickets in a meadow at midnight. Fish in a barrel, they are. We'd need to determine whether a PRC attack submarine whether deisel or nuclear could be a threat to a carrier. I'll say the PRC carrier wouldn't last a day in the Pacific given the U.S. attack subs in the area. So I respectfully beg to differ in the matter of the relevance of subs to carrier groups.

[Scott]

Your point has been made, but this topic is about air craft carriers, so let's make sure that is the main focus of the discussion.

A reasonable, intelligent and informative discussion is always welcome on the forum.

[bendejo]

Oh dear . . . I can just see the American neo-cons call for more military spending because China has 'caught up'.

Their big xmas gift was when Iran hacked the GPS system of a US drone and supposedly captured it intact.

How did they ever think of such a brilliant ploy? Must have seen the first few minutes of the film Tomorrow Never Dies. Now the US has to come up with a new generation of killer droids. Cha-ching!

Speaking of technology and cinema, anyone seen Homeland this past week? Have you changed your attitiude about heart pacemakers?

[maidu]

I found a description of China's state-of-subs, but won't say more about it here.

[theblether]

People laughed at the Japanese when they turned up with a ramshackle motorcycle at the Isle of Man TT back in the 50's. That smile is long gone.

The Chinese now have a capacity they didn't have before, all they will do now is improve and increase capacity. Give it 30 years the Chinese will be the biggest economy in the World, they'll own a note so large against the USA they'll be able to build a new carrier every month on the interest earned.

Edited December 7, 2012 by Rimmer
Off topic

[theblether]

That sounds like a whole lot of wishful thinking to me.

[Dancealot]

The chinese recently made a financial transfer with brazil in their currency just to avoid and mock the dollar!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18545978

Thanks SC! have to proof your claims

[maidu]

People laughed at the Japanese when they turned up with a ramshackle motorcycle at the Isle of Man TT back in the 50's. That smile is long gone.

The Chinese now have a capacity they didn't have before, all they will do now is improve and increase capacity. Give it 30 years the Chinese will be the biggest economy in the World, they'll own a note so large against the USA they'll be able to build a new carrier every month on the interest earned.

I agree to some extent. However, China has some deep-set drawbacks that won't be able to be glossed over. It has a non-democratic top-heavy politburo. That iron-fisted inflexible control structure won't be able to resist crumbling in the near-future, and when it does, it won't get fixed in stages. Instead, it will crack and fall like Saddam's statue in Baghdad.

In the past two centuries, China had a steady pattern of major upheavals - each incident contributing to millions dying and political/social/physical maps redrawn. We can hope this recent upsurge in commercial success will continue to grow for decades, but I see that as wishful thinking that goes against the trends of the Chinese people and their history.

Despite selling a bazillion plastic products, there are some grave underlying realities: Rich and poor getting ever-more polarized. Fewer women to service ever-growing % of men (tens of millions of frustrated me who can neither afford nor find wives/sex partners). Continuing and growing defensiveness about being 'Chinese' which leads to vindictiveness towards 'outsiders' who the Chinese think are 'ganging up' on them. Besides military muscle flexing, that will lead increased internet crime. Dwindling natural resources, increasing environmental destruction, manic drives to secure resources from other countries - all contribute to potential future melt-downs.

Sorry if this sounds cynical, but part of my outlook is due to having recently researched Chinese history (since the arrival of the Portuguese and Brits in the 16th century) - as part of a book writing project. Another reason is my solidarity with Tibetans/Taiwanese, and concern for human rights and environmental husbandry in that part of the world.

Edited December 7, 2012 by Rimmer

[Rimmer]

Off topic post removed, the subject is China successfull carrier landing.

[Publicus]

People laughed at the Japanese when they turned up with a ramshackle motorcycle at the Isle of Man TT back in the 50's. That smile is long gone.

The Chinese now have a capacity they didn't have before, all they will do now is improve and increase capacity. Give it 30 years the Chinese will be the biggest economy in the World, they'll own a note so large against the USA they'll be able to build a new carrier every month on the interest earned.

In 30 years the China economy and its armaments will be long gone. Check out this link:

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/real-news-from-the-blaze-is-an-economic-collapse-in-china-ahead/

No carriers, no CCP or PRC. The only question is whether China collapses quietly and peacefully or tries to go out with a bang.

[folium]

People laughed at the Japanese when they turned up with a ramshackle motorcycle at the Isle of Man TT back in the 50's. That smile is long gone.

The Chinese now have a capacity they didn't have before, all they will do now is improve and increase capacity. Give it 30 years the Chinese will be the biggest economy in the World, they'll own a note so large against the USA they'll be able to build a new carrier every month on the interest earned.

In 30 years the China economy and its armaments will be long gone. Check out this link:

http://www.theblaze....in-china-ahead/

No carriers, no CCP or PRC. The only question is whether China collapses quietly and peacefully or tries to go out with a bang.

Strewth!

The Blaze...Glen Beck's latest vehicle for self promotion and money making?

Richard Branson has just bet Willie Walsh (of BA/Iberia) 1 million Sterling that the Virgin brand will still be flying in 5 years time and Walsh has offered a forfeit of a knee in the nuts at the losers expense.

China/PRC/CCP/PLAN's carrier fleet will exist in 30 years time...like it or not. Even in the wildest Tea Party/Fox News dreams this would be an easy bet to win, what would you like to wager?

[folium]

Looks like "shootering" is the new planking in China and spreading fast!

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/11/shootering-is-the-new-eastwooding-chinas-aircraft-carrier-gets-a-meme/265678/

[Sing_Sling]

I'd agree . . . the place will implode eventually - let's not forget that it is as artificially created as the former Soviet Union, Yugoslavia etc . . . but what will decide its fate is the ever increasing disparity between rural and urban communities.

This implosion will be far more frightening than a peaceful existence - albeit based on flexing military muscles - as it would mean literally tens of millions of refugees flooding the region and beyond

[Publicus]

Yes, and here's another one from last month's International Security Forum in Canada which advises national governments throughout the world to be at least as prepared for a major collapse of the CCP and the PRChina as governments and corporations are in their planning to exploit what is already recognized as the end of spectacular growth to the Mainland economy. The gravy days of the Chinese economy are over. The world knows the data out of Beijing are cooked, massaged and otherwise manipulated. One Central Committee member recently spoke pubicly that the economic data coming out of Beijing are "man made."

Here's a take by the Diplomat magazine of the International Security Forum vis a vis the CCP-PRC State Corporate Military Industrial complex.

http://thediplomat.com/china-power/planning-for-chinas-fall/

[folium]

Yes, and here's another one from last month's International Security Forum in Canada which advises national governments throughout the world to be at least as prepared for a major collapse of the CCP and the PRChina as governments and corporations are in their planning to exploit what is already recognized as the end of spectacular growth to the Mainland economy. The gravy days of the Chinese economy are over. The world knows the data out of Beijing are cooked, massaged and otherwise manipulated. One Central Committee member recently spoke pubicly that the economic data coming out of Beijing are "man made."

Here's a take by the Diplomat magazine of the International Security Forum vis a vis the CCP-PRC State Corporate Military Industrial complex.

http://thediplomat.com/china-power/planning-for-chinas-fall/

Underestimating China has been a constant for over 60 years, and of course like every broken clock you will be right eventually, just unlikely to be so any time soon.

Even bright guys like the Economist writers get it wrong, see this piece from 2002...

http://www.economist.com/node/1164570

[maidu]

Yes, and here's another one from last month's International Security Forum in Canada which advises national governments throughout the world to be at least as prepared for a major collapse of the CCP and the PRChina as governments and corporations are in their planning to exploit what is already recognized as the end of spectacular growth to the Mainland economy. The gravy days of the Chinese economy are over. The world knows the data out of Beijing are cooked, massaged and otherwise manipulated. One Central Committee member recently spoke pubicly that the economic data coming out of Beijing are "man made."

Here's a take by the Diplomat magazine of the International Security Forum vis a vis the CCP-PRC State Corporate Military Industrial complex.

http://thediplomat.c...or-chinas-fall/

Underestimating China has been a constant for over 60 years, and of course like every broken clock you will be right eventually, just unlikely to be so any time soon.

Even bright guys like the Economist writers get it wrong, see this piece from 2002...

http://www.economist.com/node/1164570

If you look at China's history for the past 60 years, to use your yardstick, it's not a pretty picture. Within that time, China has essentially eaten parts of itself to gain nourishment. There was the "Great Leap Forward" - the largest genocide of the 20th century (40 million died), which makes it bloodier than Hitler's (22 million) or Stalin's (30 million) messes.

China is riding high on economic success currently. Let's see how long it can surf that big wave.

[Sing_Sling]

Yes, and here's another one from last month's International Security Forum in Canada which advises national governments throughout the world to be at least as prepared for a major collapse of the CCP and the PRChina as governments and corporations are in their planning to exploit what is already recognized as the end of spectacular growth to the Mainland economy. The gravy days of the Chinese economy are over. The world knows the data out of Beijing are cooked, massaged and otherwise manipulated. One Central Committee member recently spoke pubicly that the economic data coming out of Beijing are "man made."

Here's a take by the Diplomat magazine of the International Security Forum vis a vis the CCP-PRC State Corporate Military Industrial complex.

http://thediplomat.c...or-chinas-fall/

Underestimating China has been a constant for over 60 years, and of course like every broken clock you will be right eventually, just unlikely to be so any time soon.

Even bright guys like the Economist writers get it wrong, see this piece from 2002...

http://www.economist.com/node/1164570

If you look at China's history for the past 60 years, to use your yardstick, it's not a pretty picture. Within that time, China has essentially eaten parts of itself to gain nourishment. There was the "Great Leap Forward" - the largest genocide of the 20th century (40 million died), which makes it bloodier than Hitler's (22 million) or Stalin's (30 million) messes.

China is riding high on economic success currently. Let's see how long it can surf that big wave.

Quite right, 'one' tends to see events in a timeframe that we can understand . . . the here and now, give or take a decade or two. China's 'progress' has been unprecedented and so will its demise be.

My SiL was in Beijing for four years, as part of the EU missions, working as human rights observer and she mentioned that there are revolts (big or small) every week . . . against the government (local and state), the Han and general disatisfaction. Almost none of these are reported.

I can't see anyone laying a date for this implosion, but it will come eventually, as sudden as Yugoslavia and the USSR

[Publicus]

People laughed at the Japanese when they turned up with a ramshackle motorcycle at the Isle of Man TT back in the 50's. That smile is long gone.

The Chinese now have a capacity they didn't have before, all they will do now is improve and increase capacity. Give it 30 years the Chinese will be the biggest economy in the World, they'll own a note so large against the USA they'll be able to build a new carrier every month on the interest earned.

In 30 years the China economy and its armaments will be long gone. Check out this link:

http://www.theblaze....in-china-ahead/

No carriers, no CCP or PRC. The only question is whether China collapses quietly and peacefully or tries to go out with a bang.

Strewth!

The Blaze...Glen Beck's latest vehicle for self promotion and money making?

Richard Branson has just bet Willie Walsh (of BA/Iberia) 1 million Sterling that the Virgin brand will still be flying in 5 years time and Walsh has offered a forfeit of a knee in the nuts at the losers expense.

China/PRC/CCP/PLAN's carrier fleet will exist in 30 years time...like it or not. Even in the wildest Tea Party/Fox News dreams this would be an easy bet to win, what would you like to wager?

Try this link then, at the Financial Times if you don't like the particular one I had provided : http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/eb7a986a-1804-11e2-9530-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2FJzo8iEL

Or you can check out this link to the Wall Street Journal: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-unbalanced-economy-a-top-concern-for-govt-2012-10-23

Then there's this one at Bloomberg Financial News: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-16/why-india-will-displace-china-as-global-growth-engine.html

If you'd like a few more links to other establishment news organizations, lemme know. I have plenty of links and sources concerning the concern over a coming collapse of the CCP-PRC.

[theblether]

Re the Bloomberg link above..........no chance.

India has the capability of overtaking China but the culture of the country is so retrograde it's beyond belief. There will be some serious, serious issues coming to the fore in India over the next twenty years as the population races towards 1.6 Billion, and as pointed out in that article, the majority are young. I read somewhere that 100 million Indians will turn 18 in the next 5 years. Look at that figure again, 100 million.

Scary.