Governments ' In Denial About Crisis'

[Lite Beer]

INSURGENCY IN SOUTH

Governments 'in denial about crisis'

Pravit Rojanaphruk

The Nation on Sunday

McCargo

BANGKOK: -- Political solution desperately needed to resolve insurgency, top scholar says

A political solution as well as political leadership is needed to solve the prolonged separatist-related violence in the deep South, according to Duncan McCargo, an expert who has written three books about the conflict.

"This problem is not going to be solved by military means," said McCargo in an interview, adding that successive governments, including the current Yingluck Shinawatra administration, are still in a state of denial.

McCargo said some officials and politicians already admit the need for a political solution and some form of decentralisation but only in private - and they "are not going to say it in public".

The Englishman, a professor of Southeast Asian Politics at University of Leeds, said violence in the deep South, with over 5,000 deaths since 2004, is the most serious problem confronting Thailand today, although many Thais may not see it that way.

He said there was a need for support from different spectrums of society to press for political leadership and a political solution.

It was not enough, he said, that some military leaders acknowledge the limits of a heavy-handed approach that alienates locals and helps insurgents recruit more separatists.

"It's really time that people in Thailand realise that this is one of the most serious conflicts in the world. Nothing is going to get solved until it becomes a political priority. The problem isn't going away," he said, adding that while the level of violence had gone down since its height in 2004 to 2007, attacks are now more sophisticated.

"So, we can't say things are getting worse but that doesn't mean that it's improving in a profound sense."

What's more, said McCargo, the military and not the civilian government was directing policy in Pattani and the rest of the deep south. "The Internal Security Operations Command [isoc] and the military is really controlling what is going on in the South. So that's another problem. We need political leadership [to end it].

"Five thousand people have been killed. Let's stop messing around. That's what we actually need. Everything is decided in Bangkok."

He criticised the mainstream Thai mass media for not doing enough to make society aware about the issue in a meaningful way.

"The media reflects the readers and the people who are consumers. The Thai media is not very big on getting ahead of public opinion," he said, adding that most Thai media coverage on the deep South was in a response mode. "There's a sense that what is happening in the province is not really news."

"The media doesn't want to show leadership. There's no audience for the stories about the South. People don't want to hear about it. There's a lot of news fatigue."

McCargo said the single biggest thing many Thais don't understand is that far more Muslims have been killed than Buddhists in the deep South.

At least six models of decentralisation and autonomy have been floated by experts and concerned citizens over the years, he said, and this ranged from having an elected governor to full-blown autonomy. McCargo said some form of decentralisation was an indispensable part of the solution. But public debate and space to enable people to decide on the matter was needed.

"Thailand is using a 19th century colonial model of public administration," he said.

Yet many Thai officials and leaders were plagued by the sense of paranoia that decentralisation means losing the territory and that Malaysia wants to take the three southern-most provinces, he said.

Concern about Malaysia made no sense as northern Malaysia was a stronghold for the opposition and the government would not want to strengthen the opposition by having Pattani, Narathiwat and Yala joining them, he said.

In regard to decentralisation, McCargo urged people to see it in a wider context of the general move to decentralisation in other provinces such as Chiang Mai.

Many conservative politicians and state officials remain "very afraid" about this, fearing that any kind of decentralisation will be "a threat to the established political order" when in fact it would strengthen the system, he said.

-- The Nation 2012-12-23

[HiSoLowSoNoSo]

"A political solution as well as political leadership is needed" Political leadership with a puppet as PM?

[noitom]

Duncan McCargo's books are tremendous and provide penetrating insight into the Thai south problem and massive killing. Thais don't read Duncan McCargo or any other informed objective intellectual insight into the south. In fact, one of McCargo's books published in 1997 is just now being translated into Thai. That illustrates the sense of urgency of the Thais in becoming informed about the failings of their own system.

[thomash]

"Thailand is using a 19th century colonial model of public administration," he said.

This explains a lot about not just the conflict in the deep south but about a lot of things that go on in Thailand!

[chainarong]

The current Government is in Denial, I beg to differ, in complete disarray, about everything and anything , the harder the problem, the worse they get, of course they could get back the former strongman, he has a penchant for negotiations

[fareastguy]

At last somebody willing to say it as it is.. straight from the hip.. but is the administration going to listen & learn ?

Very doubtful !!

For the very same reason some politicians whisper behind closed doors & do nothing, mainstream media isn't going to come out in public & criticize the government for it's failings, the result would be like being "blackballed" by the leadership..

They aren't going to seek the help or advice from such "outside" experts such as Mr McCargo either, because that would be losing public face & admitting to having no idea on how to solve the problem.

As he mentions it's not high enough on the Thai agenda, it's sidelined as being just a bit of a thorn in their foot, but when the bombings/shootings ramp up & hit the international press it becomes an embarrassment.

"Thailand is using a 19th century colonial model of public administration," he said. quite correct, still using old methods instead of venturing out into the big wide world & learning how modern day negotiations can solve disputes.

Here in the "Land of smiles" the public has been taught from a very young age to keep their noses out of politics & let the learned few deal with all the issues, which is another reason it doesn't figure highly in the daily news, a mentality of why tell them about it when it doesn't concern them.

The reason why most of the learned few won't speak out is because they don't wish to rock the boat in which they all sail.

At the moment the highest priority in the corridors of power is to keep filling their pockets with the spoils of their own war, protecting the red army so as to ensure the referendum on a charter rewrite goes in their favour, then make good on their promise to bring Thaksin back in from the cold.

All the rest of the election promises can wait.

It's time more outside influences spoke out as this "gentleman" has & embarrass the Yingluk/Chalerm administration into some form of action.

[righteous]

>"The media reflects the readers and the people who are consumers. The Thai media is not very big on getting ahead of public opinion," - This is a very meaningful quote from this speaker. It strikes me as meaningful not only from the perspective he is addressing, but in all things Political. Every time I inquire about why most people from the anti-Amart side of the political divide pay scant attention to the mainstream media, preferring their source, in particular Asia Update, I get the same response, "the domestic media is beholden to one side of the political divide due to its ownership linkages. Plus it is controlled by powerful elements of the anti-Red Shirt persuasion". By this, I reference print media, television and Public Opinion Polling.

>This is an interesting point this speaker makes, and may reflect similar underpinnings. In addition to it being anti-Red Shirt and being ignored accordingly, is it viscerally anti-Southern issues as well? I am the first to admit I am not steeped in understanding of the Southern insurgent issues, but does the same apply in that instance, with respect to the orientation of the media with its' roots and influences? (344)

Edited December 23, 2012 by righteous

[hellodolly]

Well why I agree with the political solution I have a hard time with the government putting in the hands of a proven failure (Chalerm) I doubt they really care and are just putting on a show.

One other point to consider is who do they deal with their is so many different group's.

[terryp]

Let’s be totally honest here, none of the MP’s based North of Hat Yai give 1 satang about the Southern Problems...having lived in the South for the past 20 years I know this all too well, they are basically Fiddleing as Nero did.

If Thailand did not have the Japanese Automobile manufacturing and the rip off Tourism Industry then Thailand would be just as Cambodia is today.

With a massive downturn in Automobile purchase in Europe (past 14 months sales have dropped month on month) it is only a matter of time before Australasia starts to follow..and Tourism well you can soon see what happens with that from next Feb, what next a Gov tax rebate scheme for cars over 2 ltr.

[Halion]

One of the most informed ,articulate and accurate articles that I have seen posted on Thai visa. His comments regarding the vacum in Governmental leadership and direction along with the lack luster actions and abilities of the media highlight the problems with this forgotten war. Also correct is that owing to the insular nature of the Thai public ,those who do not live in the restive south care little and do not have the foresight to comprehend what the continued consequense of inaction will bring to this country. Act now and act decisively .... or get bitten in the ass tomorrow.

[Moruya]

>"The media reflects the readers and the people who are consumers. The Thai media is not very big on getting ahead of public opinion," - This is a very meaningful quote from this speaker. It strikes me as meaningful not only from the perspective he is addressing, but in all things Political. Every time I inquire about why most people from the anti-Amart side of the political divide pay scant attention to the mainstream media, preferring their source, in particular Asia Update, I get the same response, "the domestic media is beholden to one side of the political divide due to its ownership linkages. Plus it is controlled by powerful elements of the anti-Red Shirt persuasion". By this, I reference print media, television and Public Opinion Polling.

>This is an interesting point this speaker makes, and may reflect similar underpinnings. In addition to it being anti-Red Shirt and being ignored accordingly, is it viscerally anti-Southern issues as well? I am the first to admit I am not steeped in understanding of the Southern insurgent issues, but does the same apply in that instance, with respect to the orientation of the media with its' roots and influences? (344)

I think you posted psalm 344 into the wrong thread. If you are attempting to somehow align the plight of the southern states with your red shirted mob then you are a few Scriptures short of a testament.

[khunken]

One of the most informed ,articulate and accurate articles that I have seen posted on Thai visa. His comments regarding the vacum in Governmental leadership and direction along with the lack luster actions and abilities of the media highlight the problems with this forgotten war. Also correct is that owing to the insular nature of the Thai public ,those who do not live in the restive south care little and do not have the foresight to comprehend what the continued consequense of inaction will bring to this country. Act now and act decisively .... or get bitten in the ass tomorrow.

I agree broadly with your post. However I don't think it's the media's function to solve the problem. Report it - which they do, but often on a superficial basis (Muslim vs Buddhist) - and allow knowledgeable people like Mr McCargo to suggest solutions.

There is little chance that the current government will act &, in fairness, none of the previous governments have done anything constructive since the hornets nest was stirred by Thaksin around 2001. Thailand, just like Burma, has yet to come to terms with real reconciliation with Muslims in the south and some of the (non-ethnic-Thai) hill-tribe peoples.

[Moruya]

One of the most informed ,articulate and accurate articles that I have seen posted on Thai visa. His comments regarding the vacum in Governmental leadership and direction along with the lack luster actions and abilities of the media highlight the problems with this forgotten war. Also correct is that owing to the insular nature of the Thai public ,those who do not live in the restive south care little and do not have the foresight to comprehend what the continued consequense of inaction will bring to this country. Act now and act decisively .... or get bitten in the ass tomorrow.

I'm not convinced that guerilla warfare can be beaten unless a massive number of troops either side of the border flush them out. That won't be pretty.

Unfortunately this administration refuses to accept them as terrorists, preferring the term "insurgents". It also refuses to accept that there is 3rd party help and sponsorship.

In my mind it's just another of the hundreds of fundamental Muslim wars that is going on around the world and you'd be hard pushed to name a country that doesn't have this issue to some degree including the Arab states.

The big difference in the south is tactics. I can't think of any suicide bombings. In the main it has been shootings but the number of teachers being targeted and the number of larger bombings is on the increase.

Whilst the article above refers to the Thai press, how many on here have seen the Western press home in on 160 teacher deaths? Why the lack of interest?

[whybother]

In my mind it's just another of the hundreds of fundamental Muslim wars that is going on around the world and you'd be hard pushed to name a country that doesn't have this issue to some degree including the Arab states.

AFAIK, Australia doesn't have any fundamental Muslim wars going on.

[Moruya]

In my mind it's just another of the hundreds of fundamental Muslim wars that is going on around the world and you'd be hard pushed to name a country that doesn't have this issue to some degree including the Arab states.

AFAIK, Australia doesn't have any fundamental Muslim wars going on.

I dont expect the Bali bombers were looking for anything but Aussies and the Jakarta embassy bombing was a clearer Aussie target.

Its a bit harder to get bombs and weapons in Australia and very hard to smuggle into an island or there would be more.

[khunken]

One of the most informed ,articulate and accurate articles that I have seen posted on Thai visa. His comments regarding the vacum in Governmental leadership and direction along with the lack luster actions and abilities of the media highlight the problems with this forgotten war. Also correct is that owing to the insular nature of the Thai public ,those who do not live in the restive south care little and do not have the foresight to comprehend what the continued consequense of inaction will bring to this country. Act now and act decisively .... or get bitten in the ass tomorrow.

I'm not convinced that guerilla warfare can be beaten unless a massive number of troops either side of the border flush them out. That won't be pretty.

Unfortunately this administration refuses to accept them as terrorists, preferring the term "insurgents". It also refuses to accept that there is 3rd party help and sponsorship.

In my mind it's just another of the hundreds of fundamental Muslim wars that is going on around the world and you'd be hard pushed to name a country that doesn't have this issue to some degree including the Arab states.

The big difference in the south is tactics. I can't think of any suicide bombings. In the main it has been shootings but the number of teachers being targeted and the number of larger bombings is on the increase.

Whilst the article above refers to the Thai press, how many on here have seen the Western press home in on 160 teacher deaths? Why the lack of interest?

It is almost impossible to defeat any guerilla war by force. This one needs negotiations which have been lacking in any meaningful way.

The Thai government is correct in my view not to describe them as terrorists. Acts of terror have been committed by both sides & there is no evidence of any 3rd party help.

Ah yes, the Islamophobia attitude rears its ugly head. There are many insurgencies around the world, many Muslim (the ones that get western media attention) and others not. Painting them all with a broad brush displays a lack of understanding of what the reasons are behind each individal case.

Let me say that I do have some support for the local people in the south, including the insurgents. However I do not agree with their tactics of targeting teachers & schools. Military & police is a different matter. As Mr McCargo says, the military should not be the ones in charge in the south, but then neither should a DPM who is afraid to even visit the area, with or without his ear medicine.

[Rinrada]

Maybe.....could it....

Re:Philippines..

The Mindanao conflict first flared in the 1960s when the Muslim minority - known as the Moros - launched an armed struggle for their ancestral homeland in the south.

After 15 years of stop-start peace talks, the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (<deleted>) agreed to form a new autonomous region in the south before 2016.

[Pimay1]

Maybe.....could it....

Re:Philippines..

The Mindanao conflict first flared in the 1960s when the Muslim minority - known as the Moros - launched an armed struggle for their ancestral homeland in the south.

After 15 years of stop-start peace talks, the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (<deleted>) agreed to form a new autonomous region in the south before 2016.

Well nothing is impossible but I lived in Manila for a couple of years and the Philippine people don't have the same face saving roadblock so to speak as Thais do.

[MaxLee]

If the politicians don't care about taking real measurements, Don't be surprised that southern militants target Bangkok one day as their military base, and the let the chaos begin in stealth....

[RubbaJohnny]

Tragic as the violence is,there are many other grave issues,HIV,Full employment,The Polity and charter issue could still provoke deep divides.The longer view the need to upgrade,primary health,migration,education and water management come to mind.

For the locals here 2000km from the conflict it may as well be on the moon and is viewed as third world savegry by largely Tai Lu Lanna and Chinese Jinhaw KMT folks who work hard

While they do not consume at first world rates have a comfortable stable life and seek the normal things once the fundamentals are secured.

This conforms to the psychologist Maslow's 'hierarchy of needs' and better housing,unmortgaged land and health,pension insurance are the hot button issues not unlike USA.

Sadly unless a local conscript is injured most that happens south of Lampang is of little interest here,though the central governmemt knows and fears that like Catalunya/Scotland any devolution in the South could trigger similar rumblings from Lao/Esan the hill tibes the border areas and of course Lanna the jewel in the north.

A combo of rambo,indecision and external support for ill conceived insurgency will ensure this rumbles on IMHO,while Mr McCargo as a serious scholar makes clear the remedy lies with good governance,when that will arrive is another issue.

Edited December 23, 2012 by RubbaJohnny

[wprime]

Denial is how Thai people remain happy, would you rather live happily in disarray or in structured misery?

[Skywalker69]

"Thailand is using a 19th century colonial model of public administration," he said.

This can´t be true......can it?

[muttley]

It is almost impossible to defeat any guerilla war by force. This one needs negotiations which have been lacking in any meaningful way.

The Thai government is correct in my view not to describe them as terrorists. Acts of terror have been committed by both sides & there is no evidence of any 3rd party help.

Ah yes, the Islamophobia attitude rears its ugly head. There are many insurgencies around the world, many Muslim (the ones that get western media attention) and others not. Painting them all with a broad brush displays a lack of understanding of what the reasons are behind each individal case.

Let me say that I do have some support for the local people in the south, including the insurgents. However I do not agree with their tactics of targeting teachers & schools. Military & police is a different matter. As Mr McCargo says, the military should not be the ones in charge in the south, but then neither should a DPM who is afraid to even visit the area, with or without his ear medicine.

"Let me say that I do have some support for the local people in the south, including the insurgents. However I do not agree with their tactics of targeting teachers & schools. Military & police is a different matter."

So let me get this right, you're OK with some local people in the south attacking the military and the police but not the local thais and you call them insurgents.

When you have the army shoot at and kill local unarmed thais in the north and some others fight back against the military you rage at them at every opportunity and call them terrorists?

Am I missing something?

Edited December 23, 2012 by muttley

[sunshine51]

"Thailand is using a 19th century colonial model of public administration," he said.

This can´t be true......can it?

Sad...and true.

[dickyknee]

It is almost impossible to defeat any guerilla war by force. This one needs negotiations which have been lacking in any meaningful way.

The Thai government is correct in my view not to describe them as terrorists. Acts of terror have been committed by both sides & there is no evidence of any 3rd party help.

Ah yes, the Islamophobia attitude rears its ugly head. There are many insurgencies around the world, many Muslim (the ones that get western media attention) and others not. Painting them all with a broad brush displays a lack of understanding of what the reasons are behind each individal case.

Let me say that I do have some support for the local people in the south, including the insurgents. However I do not agree with their tactics of targeting teachers & schools. Military & police is a different matter. As Mr McCargo says, the military should not be the ones in charge in the south, but then neither should a DPM who is afraid to even visit the area, with or without his ear medicine.

"Let me say that I do have some support for the local people in the south, including the insurgents. However I do not agree with their tactics of targeting teachers & schools. Military & police is a different matter."

So let me get this right, you're OK with some local people in the south attacking the military and the police but not the local thais and you call them insurgents.

When you have the army shoot at and kill local unarmed thais in the north and some others fight back against the military you rage at them at every opportunity and call them terrorists?

Am I missing something?

yes.

[jbrain]

Mr McCargo clearly doesn't know anything about Thai culture.

It is a known fact overhere that if you ignore a problem long enough it will go away.

Not so ?

[AleG]

Ironically enough, the only glimpse at a working solution was given by the Surayud and Sonthi junta governments.

[dickyknee]

>"The media reflects the readers and the people who are consumers. The Thai media is not very big on getting ahead of public opinion," - This is a very meaningful quote from this speaker. It strikes me as meaningful not only from the perspective he is addressing, but in all things Political. Every time I inquire about why most people from the anti-Amart side of the political divide pay scant attention to the mainstream media, preferring their source, in particular Asia Update, I get the same response, "the domestic media is beholden to one side of the political divide due to its ownership linkages. Plus it is controlled by powerful elements of the anti-Red Shirt persuasion". By this, I reference print media, television and Public Opinion Polling.

>This is an interesting point this speaker makes, and may reflect similar underpinnings. In addition to it being anti-Red Shirt and being ignored accordingly, is it viscerally anti-Southern issues as well? I am the first to admit I am not steeped in understanding of the Southern insurgent issues, but does the same apply in that instance, with respect to the orientation of the media with its' roots and influences? (344)

a parallel could easily be drawn between the attitude in this response to the attitude Mr McCargo speaks of in the whole article - there are more important things to be concerned about.

[MAJIC]

A blind eye can be turned against the problem in the South ,as long as it doesn't interfere with the the heirarchys corruption,and making money projects.

[cup-O-coffee]

The regrettable thing is that Mr. McCargo can't really say what he wants to say. It would be interesting to get a few pints down him and sit back and listen to what he really thinks, but really cannot say because of the gauntlet of bullshit politics and politically correct crap that one is compelled to dance through to even get past "Good morning ladies and gentlemen." and gain the charade of respect that goes with the salutation.

On another note, Thais do not listen to foreigners, because foreigners do not understand their backwards ways of FACE and come across as rude or offensive. This gives the Thai ignorant mind all it needs to feel superior. Additionally, most foreigners, I am certain, dislike the bother of doing so as it is hereditary in falling upon ignorant, stubborn or deaf ears. We all know that the Thais are too busy thinking about their response (to make things not so serious) or even something else as they sit there and give you that deadpan face with a plastic smile and irritating, constant "something stuck in my throat" Ka or Kahp.

Yeah! It sure would be nice to hear Mr. McCargo call them a bunch of ignorant wanke_rs and pack his bags and go back to Leeds, and save us all a bunch of wasted time.

Edited December 23, 2012 by cup-O-coffee