BookMan Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 How about Chickens or Clam shells? Lot of those around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fletchsmile Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Firstly I don't really see another major currency appearing in 2013 so it's all hypothetical. Later than 2013 maybe Secondly if I tried to think where it may come from, perhaps something out of the Euro zone or from a combination of emerging countries trying to create an alternative to the dollar. Backed by: Most likely a basket of other currencies or Paper from the governments of those currencies Very unlikely it would be backed by a commodity or even basket of commodities. With the amount of debt and leverage in the system, I don't see a commodity or combination of commodities that would be stable enough or sensible enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 As you say, it's all about belief. If china were to announce such a currency all they would need is the ability to redeem the paper for said commodities on a given day; with big enough stocks they could do this. the problem that any backing fluctuating in price would still exist. eliminating that fluctuation can only be done with a sought after commodity which is under nearly exclusive Chinese price control. presently i can even think of one, namely "rare minerals" (known among ignorants as "rare earths"). but the possibility exists that huge deposits of these "rare minerals" are discovered in <insert area> which could, or rather would, destroy the trust in the currency backing overnight. Yes the backing commodity can fluctuate but currencies currently fluctuate also, so I don't see the big difference between a paper or commodity backed currency. Since value can be maintained by either selling gold (or x commodities) or with holding Xyz from the market/ limiting supply. This would be why such large reserves of the physical are needed and why control of a large part of supply is also. However I think mostly the adjustments could be made by controling the amounts on the paper side with physical side only coming in to play in extreem circumstances. Gold on its own could be preferable to a basket because its limited industrial uses means it can be monetized to basicslly any level/ price without affecting the operations of industry. controlling the amounts on the paper side? i can only shake my head! do you have any idea how much paper (book) money changes hands globally in a single minute of a single trading day? there isn't enough of any backing, including baskets, to cover a single day! but wait... should x number of seawater droplets or y number of sand grains in existing deserts be acceptable as backing then of course i am completely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mccw Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 As you say, it's all about belief. If china were to announce such a currency all they would need is the ability to redeem the paper for said commodities on a given day; with big enough stocks they could do this. the problem that any backing fluctuating in price would still exist. eliminating that fluctuation can only be done with a sought after commodity which is under nearly exclusive Chinese price control. presently i can even think of one, namely "rare minerals" (known among ignorants as "rare earths"). but the possibility exists that huge deposits of these "rare minerals" are discovered in <insert area> which could, or rather would, destroy the trust in the currency backing overnight. Yes the backing commodity can fluctuate but currencies currently fluctuate also, so I don't see the big difference between a paper or commodity backed currency. Since value can be maintained by either selling gold (or x commodities) or with holding Xyz from the market/ limiting supply. This would be why such large reserves of the physical are needed and why control of a large part of supply is also. However I think mostly the adjustments could be made by controling the amounts on the paper side with physical side only coming in to play in extreem circumstances. Gold on its own could be preferable to a basket because its limited industrial uses means it can be monetized to basicslly any level/ price without affecting the operations of industry. controlling the amounts on the paper side? i can only shake my head! do you have any idea how much paper (book) money changes hands globally in a single minute of a single trading day? there isn't enough of any backing, including baskets, to cover a single day! but wait... should x number of seawater droplets or y number of sand grains in existing deserts be acceptable as backing then of course i am completely wrong. What are you talking about all the money in the world for? I'm talking about manipulating the value of a single gold backed currency through its paper side dilution. In the same way countries are now printing money to devalue or the other way one can take money out of circulation. What's so hard to grasp? The same imperfect tools would be available as now only in differing manipulation technique/ method. I don't think this chinese gold bavked currency would happen in 2013 or anytime unless / until the USA implodes. I think it is the chinese back up plan to see them emerge strongest from a US/ global banking/ currency melt down scenario. For now the current system is working out fine for them so no need to rock the boat/ happy to by up real assets, companies, mines, property and resource while they can with the glut of yanky dollars they have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mccw Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Or Naam you talking about not enough gold or any another backing in the world? That's only at today's values. In such an extreme scenario to bring on such a system shift then everything would become revalued in to the new system so its a mute point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Or Naam you talking about not enough gold or any another backing in the world? That's only at today's values. In such an extreme scenario to bring on such a system shift then everything would become revalued in to the new system so its a mute point. the mute point and wet dream is the revaluation of any commodity to make it suitable for backing a currency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoshiwara Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 There will never again be a gold backed currency. If all the paper money in circulation were backed by gold, gold would likely be a million dollars an ounce. that's what the goldbugs are hoping for! ...and set up rubbish threads with oh-so innocently posed questions leading to the gold eureka moment. Tra-la! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 There will never again be a gold backed currency. If all the paper money in circulation were backed by gold, gold would likely be a million dollars an ounce. that's what the goldbugs are hoping for! ...and set up rubbish threads with oh-so innocently posed questions leading to the gold eureka moment. Tra-la! the endless row of innocently posed questions by one specific participant serve a purpose, i.e. "i didn't claim anything, i just asked a question." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mccw Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Or Naam you talking about not enough gold or any another backing in the world? That's only at today's values. In such an extreme scenario to bring on such a system shift then everything would become revalued in to the new system so its a mute point. the mute point and wet dream is the revaluation of any commodity to make it suitable for backing a currency. Revaluation would not be just for gold but everything in to a new system. Such a reset would be more nightmare than wet dream since all my income producing assets would most likely be f*cked. The risks are such that the exercise of looking ahead at possible scenarios is well worth the effort so steps to emerge the other side of crises / in to a new system can lead to disaster mitigation steps. You admit to holding gold yourself in case of such risks so why don't you put some thoughts forward of what system might replace the current one if those risks were to play out? Maybe a fiat global reserve currency issued by the world bank, IMF, UN or some such global organisation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IBoldnewguy Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 The Ford "Edsel" was a bight Idea in its time - recently it was 3D TV - more bight ideas fail than succed. The scary thing about the financial markets is that the numbers are so astronomical that even the experts who administer them don't understand them and cannot accurately predict the outcome of any given solution. Darn, maybe the end of the world did happen on the 21st - I'm just so old and slow it hasn't caught up with me yet. A major calamity that claimed billions would leave alots of bodies just laying around and the gas buildup would be huge, overpowering and the pollution would then do in any survivors. Speaking of gas buildup, time for me blast off! Happy 2013 to you all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 (edited) Or Naam you talking about not enough gold or any another backing in the world? That's only at today's values. In such an extreme scenario to bring on such a system shift then everything would become revalued in to the new system so its a mute point. the mute point and wet dream is the revaluation of any commodity to make it suitable for backing a currency. Revaluation would not be just for gold but everything in to a new system. Such a reset would be more nightmare than wet dream since all my income producing assets would most likely be f*cked. The risks are such that the exercise of looking ahead at possible scenarios is well worth the effort so steps to emerge the other side of crises / in to a new system can lead to disaster mitigation steps. You admit to holding gold yourself in case of such risks so why don't you put some thoughts forward of what system might replace the current one if those risks were to play out? Maybe a fiat global reserve currency issued by the world bank, IMF, UN or some such global organisation? -a new system has not been designed and if it were established it would not match all global demands... -...consequently patchworks have been, are and will be established to be used in certain areas. all of them either in insignificant mini sizes or when in maxi size (€UR) with big problems. -the possible future scenarios are virtually unlimited. therefore it is impossible for us mortals, who's net worth is less than £/€/$ 50 million, to prepare for all eventualities. we can only act within our means. -yes, i am holding a substantial amount physical gold. the main reason why i hold gold is in case global financial transactions are temporarily interrupted (as was nearly the case in october 2008). however, i don't have wet dreams that the amount of gold we hold (~8% of our liquid capital) would last for years to come. -my layman's mind and logic tells me that the world does not need a reserve currency. the present reserve currency and the hand-in-hand going (failed) Bretton Woods System was created under pressure to benefit one country only. take a wild guess which one. where's the need for a "big reset"? what's wrong keeping on using the existing currencies and let the markets determine their individual values vs. each other or vs. commodities? Edited December 31, 2012 by Naam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krisb Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Way to hard for my feeble mind to understand yet alone comprehend it all But.. I'll be in the village if you need me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Way to hard for my feeble mind to understand yet alone comprehend it all But.. I'll be in the village if you need me we might call on you. please have ample supplies of Chang and Lao Kao ready when we arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chainarong Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 For this next year 2013 I will back the USD, why not , nothing comes close to it , as the world economies slows ,so will china , it only survives on the demand from other countries, could be described as a parasite. George S has been wrong before, lost 620million, on one currency trade once , probably uses American express.2013 will be topsy turvy hehehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midas Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nI3HICGibKg&feature=player_embedded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mccw Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Naam "-my layman's mind and logic tells me that the world does not need a reserve currency. the present reserve currency and the hand-in-hand going (failed) Bretton Woods System was created under pressure to benefit one country only. take a wild guess which one. where's the need for a "big reset"? what's wrong keeping on using the existing currencies and let the markets determine their individual values vs. each other or vs. commodities? " Nothing wrong with that, indeed that is how it will most likely continue to evolve. But as gold and other currencies/ mediums of exchange (bi lateral barter, markets denominated in other currencies etc) become more prevalent then naturally the US dollar will loose it position of power held since Breton woods. So there will be less need for the dollars internationally for these trade dealings wich coupled with all this massive printing going on = massive over supply of dollars = massively devalued dollar - or you think the fed can unwind all the work its done? If so how? So the "big reset" is enevitable but not nesacarily as a single crash event but happening naturally over the course of a decade or so as the solvent nations create other ways of trade and by pass / avoid the devaluing currencies and do not accept the western power / control over commodities markets. Market forces and natural evolution in action, not a political solution at global level probably far less likely. Such a slow transition is preferable and through this time everything will still be revalued in to the new system but by bit. However there is a strong chance any number of "events" could trigger a crash reset scenario speeding the whole process up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Nothing wrong with that, indeed that is how it will most likely continue to evolve. But as gold and other currencies/ mediums of exchange (bi lateral barter, markets denominated in other currencies etc) become more prevalent then naturally the US dollar will loose it position of power held since Breton woods. So there will be less need for the dollars internationally for these trade dealings wich coupled with all this massive printing going on = massive over supply of dollars = massively devalued dollar - or you think the fed can unwind all the work its done? If so how? So the "big reset" is enevitable but not nesacarily as a single crash event but happening naturally over the course of a decade or so as the solvent nations create other ways of trade and by pass / avoid the devaluing currencies and do not accept the western power / control over commodities markets. Market forces and natural evolution in action, not a political solution at global level probably far less likely. Such a slow transition is preferable and through this time everything will still be revalued in to the new system but by bit. However there is a strong chance any number of "events" could trigger a crash reset scenario speeding the whole process up. excellent evaluation. respect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
humblefalang Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 With the free movement of people, better diets, medicenes, and longievity, the world needs a natural or man made disaster to bring us back into balance. If you take the time to research, information is readily available, its quite frightning what is happening at such a fast pace. Money of a kind will always be the given currency. Happy 2013 Another big war is what's needed to wipe out a couple of million people. i dont believe a couple of million would solve the food issue, more like a country the size of america for instance,(nothing personal) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajarnpot Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 bitcoins anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mccw Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 bitcoins anyone? No thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djayz Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 With the free movement of people, better diets, medicenes, and longievity, the world needs a natural or man made disaster to bring us back into balance. If you take the time to research, information is readily available, its quite frightning what is happening at such a fast pace. Money of a kind will always be the given currency. Happy 2013 Another big war is what's needed to wipe out a couple of million people. i dont believe a couple of million would solve the food issue, more like a country the size of america for instance,(nothing personal) That would only be 315 mil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajarnpot Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 This is what I like about these forums, all of a sudden an innocent enough discussion turns into disucssions of mass murder. Which is why some nations develop a process to undertake such things, So killing off the entire population of the US willnot help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 This is what I like about these forums, all of a sudden an innocent enough discussion turns into disucssions of mass murder. Which is why some nations develop a process to undertake such things, So killing off the entire population of the US will not help? it would help to slow down global warming, reduce the price of crude oil and cause less wars in "Allah-forsaken" areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midas Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 This is what I like about these forums, all of a sudden an innocent enough discussion turns into disucssions of mass murder. Which is why some nations develop a process to undertake such things, So killing off the entire population of the US willnot help? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SliRq4jQ2eE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrRealDeal Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 More silly gloom and doom nonsense .... can you say Y2K ...... jesus is coming back , 2012 end of world , when will you doomers and gloomers realise the world will work pretty much the same next decade as last Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrRealDeal Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 This is what I like about these forums, all of a sudden an innocent enough discussion turns into disucssions of mass murder. Which is why some nations develop a process to undertake such things, So killing off the entire population of the US willnot help? LOL ..... yeah lets kill off the world largest economy ....... that will help sure ! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 More silly gloom and doom nonsense .... can you say Y2K ...... jesus is coming back , 2012 end of world , when will you doomers and gloomers realise the world will work pretty much the same next decade as last are you trying to tell us Jesus is not coming back this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poanoi Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 the fact that reliance upon oil in the world is waning In what universe or alternate reality ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muchogra Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 I think the word "superficial" is made to describe people who have too many things to worry about in their lives! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
churchill Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Reform of the international monetary system http://econ.worldbank.org/external/default/main?pagePK=64165259&piPK=64165421&theSitePK=477960&menuPK=64216926&entityID=000158349_20120515151937 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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