GBP to THB Exchange Rate

[wooloomooloo]

Blackandwhite - personally, I don't spend more because the rate is more attractive. I only see better value.

[Blackandwhite]

Blackandwhite - personally, I don't spend more because the rate is more attractive. I only see better value.

Well done are you Scottish

[wooloomooloo]

You do tend to tar everyone with the same desperate consumer brush statements, Blackandwhite. I really don't order a Pepsi and a dessert if I'm purchasing a BOGOF. I'll take the saving.

Edited August 22, 2013 by wooloomooloo

[Blackandwhite]

You do tend to tar everyone with the same desperate consumer brush statements, Blackandwhite. I really don't order a Pepsi and a dessert if I'm purchasing a BOGOF. I'll take the saving.

Good for you Sir - the general rule of marketing would prove different with simple figures the world over the biggest most succesfull businesses in the world do it so i suggest you try to never try you hand at marketing. As this such a boring conversation best keep it on topic and you have good luck with you lot dude

[chiang mai]

I don't think it is strong, about average to the dollar and low against the baht. I think against some notional basket of world currencies it is about where it should be.

Generally, yes a weaker pound would benefit exports but it hasn't had the desired effect so far. I do suspect BoE would like it trading at about 1.45 to the USD, and would guess that they couldn't give a monkeys' about its level to the Baht, nor their counterparts in BoT.

But I think the main pivot is the Thai Baht. True the Thai balance sheet is enviable, curent account surplus plus just 44% public debt to GDP, but a poor and weakening growth rate is no good for such an economy, and weakening consumer demand too due in no small part to 80% household debt. And it seems to be all talk, talk as usual about domestic investment.

So I think it is more about is the strong baht justified? and will the baht fall more than the pound; and I think yes it will. I'd expect a bit of a bounce back next week though.

With the baht always a chance of a big game changer too, and whilst that possibly was remote a year ago, not so now.

The thing is MB that whilst USD/GBP may look like it's about right from a historical perspective (1.56), USD is currently weaker than it should be as a result of the Feds QE program plus GBP is stronger than expected because of an excess of recent postive spin - I'm pretty certain that both of those things will unwind very shortly and that will make for a lower GBP/THB. But you're right about BOE wanting GBP weaker and also about them not caring less about GBP/THB, why should they, it's largely irrelevant in the bigger picture. Another factor related to GBP strength is that UK GDP is increasingly reliant on increased property prices and that in itself seems ridiculous.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth

But your argument is whether the current strength of THB is justified: I would argue that it's not overly strong historically although I do think that 43 was perhaps pushing things a bit far (you will note that I have not argued the case for 35 ofr many years, nor do I believe it is warranted today). You said yourself that the Thai balance sheet is enviable plus cheap labour, land, manufacturing and exports markets continue to do well, even if the population is now becomming mired in personal debt, big deal, which country's population isn't.

The wild card for me in all of this is what's happening right now, the ending of QE and the repatriation of funds, it's difficult to know where it might go and it could be a game changer I would guess, political changes etc are not a factor for me.

[NeverSure]

I disagree that Thailand has a good balance sheet. It's bogus. The 1 trillion baht owed for the rice scheme isn't called debt because they claim to have enough rice to cover it, hahaha. The country is running large deficits and piling up debt. So are consumers.

The foreign reserves don't count. They can't cash them in. If a country is going to be involved in international trading, it has to keep a big fistful of dollars, euros and pounds because no one will take baht outside of Thailand. Foreign reserves aren't liquid assets that can be drawn on to pay bills.

Most important, the numbers come from the government.

[chiang mai]

I disagree that Thailand has a good balance sheet. It's bogus. The 1 trillion baht owed for the rice scheme isn't called debt because they claim to have enough rice to cover it, hahaha. The country is running large deficits and piling up debt. So are consumers.

The foreign reserves don't count. They can't cash them in. If a country is going to be involved in international trading, it has to keep a big fistful of dollars, euros and pounds because no one will take baht outside of Thailand. Foreign reserves aren't liquid assets that can be drawn on to pay bills.

Most important, the numbers come from the government.

We're making comparisons, a snapshot in time of the differences between the UK and the Thai economy to see which has greater strength and short/emdium term potential - we're not looking at the Thai economy in isolation and trying to decide if it's ugly or beautiful.

And thinking of the way the rice scheme is financed, I wonder, does the UK not have any off balance sheet financing? Oh wait, yes they do, in spades!

And now using your old trick of posting articles from Thai newspapers to support your argument:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/662767-thai-economists-baht-plunge-a-short-term-issue/

[Naam]

I disagree that Thailand has a good balance sheet. It's bogus. The 1 trillion baht owed for the rice scheme isn't called debt because they claim to have enough rice to cover it, hahaha. The country is running large deficits and piling up debt. So are consumers.

The foreign reserves don't count. They can't cash them in. If a country is going to be involved in international trading, it has to keep a big fistful of dollars, euros and pounds because no one will take baht outside of Thailand. Foreign reserves aren't liquid assets that can be drawn on to pay bills.

Most important, the numbers come from the government.

foreign reserves can be drawn down for any purpose if the central bank allows it. it happened and still happens, especially when countries have a liquidity problem serving debt denominated in foreign currencies. best examples for that fact are Argentina and Venezuela. one has used and is still using reserves to service debt, the other one uses reserves for domestic social purpose expenses.

Thailand's foreign currency reserves are huge, ($170 billion as of june 30, 2013). for comparison:

-Germany $197 billion

-US of A $149 billion

-France $ 145 billion

-UK $129 billion

the numbers i am using do not "come from any government", source is the International Monetary Fund.

[ArranP]

UK economy is improving, its been down since 2008, now starting to turn, at some point interest rates will rise also (they can't go any lower), I would imagine something similar for the US also.

The last years (2008 onwards) have been low exchange rates for the GBP / THB, also USD / THB (amongst others), as the West recovers so their interest rates will increase and thus the currency of the west strengthen.

I have no up-to-date knowledge about the local economy in Thailand or Asia, is the economy here weakening ?

[ExpatOilWorker]

I disagree that Thailand has a good balance sheet. It's bogus. The 1 trillion baht owed for the rice scheme isn't called debt because they claim to have enough rice to cover it, hahaha. The country is running large deficits and piling up debt. So are consumers.

The foreign reserves don't count. They can't cash them in. If a country is going to be involved in international trading, it has to keep a big fistful of dollars, euros and pounds because no one will take baht outside of Thailand. Foreign reserves aren't liquid assets that can be drawn on to pay bills.

Most important, the numbers come from the government.

foreign reserves can be drawn down for any purpose if the central bank allows it. it happened and still happens, especially when countries have a liquidity problem serving debt denominated in foreign currencies. best examples for that fact are Argentina and Venezuela. one has used and is still using reserves to service debt, the other one uses reserves for domestic social purpose expenses.

Thailand's foreign currency reserves are huge, ($170 billion as of june 30, 2013). for comparison:

-Germany $197 billion

-US of A $149 billion

-France $ 145 billion

-UK $129 billion

the numbers i am using do not "come from any government", source is the International Monetary Fund.

Anybody know if Thailand have Net International debt or savings?

They are not listed in this list: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Net_international_investment_position

[Naam]

I disagree that Thailand has a good balance sheet. It's bogus. The 1 trillion baht owed for the rice scheme isn't called debt because they claim to have enough rice to cover it, hahaha. The country is running large deficits and piling up debt. So are consumers.

The foreign reserves don't count. They can't cash them in. If a country is going to be involved in international trading, it has to keep a big fistful of dollars, euros and pounds because no one will take baht outside of Thailand. Foreign reserves aren't liquid assets that can be drawn on to pay bills.

Most important, the numbers come from the government.

foreign reserves can be drawn down for any purpose if the central bank allows it. it happened and still happens, especially when countries have a liquidity problem serving debt denominated in foreign currencies. best examples for that fact are Argentina and Venezuela. one has used and is still using reserves to service debt, the other one uses reserves for domestic social purpose expenses.

Thailand's foreign currency reserves are huge, ($170 billion as of june 30, 2013). for comparison:

-Germany $197 billion

-US of A $149 billion

-France $ 145 billion

-UK $129 billion

the numbers i am using do not "come from any government", source is the International Monetary Fund.

Anybody know if Thailand have Net International debt or savings?

They are not listed in this list: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Net_international_investment_position

end of 1st quarter 2013 Thailand's total external debt was $140.4 billion (source: IMF).

[chiang mai]

There's a useful discussion on the Sterling strength issue below, it's one of many that I've read recently that are expecting a Sterling sell off as the Fed's QE program is unwound. It also includes some interesting observations about real vs imagined recovery:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=192774&st=0

[ExpatOilWorker]

I disagree that Thailand has a good balance sheet. It's bogus. The 1 trillion baht owed for the rice scheme isn't called debt because they claim to have enough rice to cover it, hahaha. The country is running large deficits and piling up debt. So are consumers.

The foreign reserves don't count. They can't cash them in. If a country is going to be involved in international trading, it has to keep a big fistful of dollars, euros and pounds because no one will take baht outside of Thailand. Foreign reserves aren't liquid assets that can be drawn on to pay bills.

Most important, the numbers come from the government.

foreign reserves can be drawn down for any purpose if the central bank allows it. it happened and still happens, especially when countries have a liquidity problem serving debt denominated in foreign currencies. best examples for that fact are Argentina and Venezuela. one has used and is still using reserves to service debt, the other one uses reserves for domestic social purpose expenses.

Thailand's foreign currency reserves are huge, ($170 billion as of june 30, 2013). for comparison:

-Germany $197 billion

-US of A $149 billion

-France $ 145 billion

-UK $129 billion

the numbers i am using do not "come from any government", source is the International Monetary Fund.

Anybody know if Thailand have Net International debt or savings?

They are not listed in this list: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Net_international_investment_position

end of 1st quarter 2013 Thailand's total external debt was $140.4 billion (source: IMF).

Yeah, but what is Thailand's Net debt?

[Naam]

foreign reserves can be drawn down for any purpose if the central bank allows it. it happened and still happens, especially when countries have a liquidity problem serving debt denominated in foreign currencies. best examples for that fact are Argentina and Venezuela. one has used and is still using reserves to service debt, the other one uses reserves for domestic social purpose expenses.

Thailand's foreign currency reserves are huge, ($170 billion as of june 30, 2013). for comparison:

-Germany $197 billion

-US of A $149 billion

-France $ 145 billion

-UK $129 billion

the numbers i am using do not "come from any government", source is the International Monetary Fund.

Anybody know if Thailand have Net International debt or savings?

They are not listed in this list: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Net_international_investment_position

end of 1st quarter 2013 Thailand's total external debt was $140.4 billion (source: IMF).

Yeah, but what is Thailand's Net debt?

that depends what yardstick you are using. using accumulated reserves there is no net debt based on the definition in your question "net international debt".

[chiang mai]

It looks like we're ending the week at around 49.70 (ish) which is about 1.50 lower than when the QE statement was released.

Any brave souls out there care to guess what it might be in one weeks time and more importantly, how and why?

[Huayrat]

It looks like we're ending the week at around 49.70 (ish) which is about 1.50 lower than when the QE statement was released.

Any brave souls out there care to guess what it might be in one weeks time and more importantly, how and why?

47.8 thats all ive gotta say to you..

[katareya2006]

I would edge a guess at 50.4

[chiang mai]

I would edge a guess at 50.4

Cool, why?

[cardholder]

It looks like we're ending the week at around 49.70 (ish) which is about 1.50 lower than when the QE statement was released.

Any brave souls out there care to guess what it might be in one weeks time and more importantly, how and why?

47.8 thats all ive gotta say to you..

I will go a Baht higher at 48.8 on the basis that there is a bank holiday on Monday and it is one day less to F&@# things up !

[chiang mai]

I hope somebody is keeping tabs on all of this because I'm not going to, thus far it's 48.8 to 50.4.

Any other players, line up and take your chances here

Importantly, include the reasons why you think it will go up or down.

[AnotherOneAmerican]

I hope somebody is keeping tabs on all of this because I'm not going to, thus far it's 48.8 to 50.4.

Any other players, line up and take your chances here

Importantly, include the reasons why you think it will go up or down.

53 by next Thursday.

Always drops on Friday as traders settle their shorts.

Reasons, everyone losing confidence in Thailand.

[Naam]

I hope somebody is keeping tabs on all of this because I'm not going to, thus far it's 48.8 to 50.4.

Any other players, line up and take your chances here

Importantly, include the reasons why you think it will go up or down.

as i have no idea i've asked my dogs. they claim that the Pound will woof vs. Baht arf not later than grr yelp because bark. and then they lined up for a treat.

[chiang mai]

I hope somebody is keeping tabs on all of this because I'm not going to, thus far it's 48.8 to 50.4.

Any other players, line up and take your chances here

Importantly, include the reasons why you think it will go up or down.

53 by next Thursday.

Always drops on Friday as traders settle their shorts.

Reasons, everyone losing confidence in Thailand.

Okaydokay, 53 by Thursday close.

Oh wait, you forgot to explain why and on what basis you think it will be at 53, explain please else it's not valid and can't be recorded.

[chiang mai]

I hope somebody is keeping tabs on all of this because I'm not going to, thus far it's 48.8 to 50.4.

Any other players, line up and take your chances here

Importantly, include the reasons why you think it will go up or down.

53 by next Thursday.

Always drops on Friday as traders settle their shorts.

Reasons, everyone losing confidence in Thailand.

Okaydokay, 53 by Thursday close.

Oh wait, you forgot to explain why and on what basis you think it will be at 53, explain please else it's not valid and can't be recorded.

Correction and apologies, of course you have supplied a reason.

[ArranP]

I think about 53 to 55 also, because this is where it was October 2010 before the GBP weakened relative to USD, now GBP is strengthening or reverting its weakening it should return to where it was.

Edited August 23, 2013 by ArranP

[Huayrat]

I think about 53 to 55 also, because this is where it was October 2010 before the GBP weakened relative to USD, now GBP is strengthening or reverting its weakening it should return to where it was.

I've lived here since oct 2009 and never saw it at 55 baht.. I wish..

[yoshiwara]

I think about 53 to 55 also, because this is where it was October 2010 before the GBP weakened relative to USD, now GBP is strengthening or reverting its weakening it should return to where it was.

I've lived here since oct 2009 and never saw it at 55 baht.. I wish..

The issue is not whether the baht hits 55 its what you are going to do if it did. If nothing then the wish is meaningless.

Or maybe you or someone else will then wish it goes to 60.

And there we have it.

[wooloomooloo]

...explain please else it's not valid and can't be recorded.

What does it matter. The f/x will rise or fall or rise and rise.

I'm hoping it will continue to rise.

My wife and I will holiday in LOS in November for nearly four weeks. Our flights are booked but we like a particular hotel and fortunately I haven't booked. Had I booked a month or two ago the bill would have been in excess of £1.6k. It's down to £1.5k now. That's a big difference and if I can find a timely deal on Quidco coupled with a better rate it will be all systems go.

I prefer to be patient but engage the brain where necessary. It's a good time for me and my finances.

Edited August 23, 2013 by wooloomooloo

[wooloomooloo]

I've lived here since oct 2009 and never saw it at 55 baht.. I wish..

It wasn't far off 55 to GBP in 2009.

[yoshiwara]

Lets put things into perspective. The person who bought an apartment net costs at 4.5 million baht at ~45 to the pound how few months ago? will have paid 100,000 pounds.

Next door apartment sold now at same price 4.5 million baht net at ~50 to the pound costs 90,000. So buyer number 1 has lost over 10% in a short space of time (~10,000 pounds)

Currency moves on this scale can make a significant difference, but it only works in your favour if you are ready to move when opportunity presents itself.

Edited August 23, 2013 by yoshiwara