GBP to THB Exchange Rate

[chiang mai]

I agree mostly with MB, there's two key events that will affect the value of THB. The first is the end of the Feds QE program and that should be Baht negative. Although is could be argued that the ending of QE means that the global economy is improving and that this will benefit Thailand as well as their exports pick up once again.

The second factor is the UK's QE program, I guess the chances of that happening are something like 70% it will vs 30% it wont, if it does happen it will be Baht positive. Regardless, GBP will need to reduce against USD (as it strengthens) so that is also Baht positive..

The timing of the above will be important as will the sequence, which happens first, my guess is that we're going to see a fair ammount of rollercoaster activity over the next few months, probably in a range of around 46 to 54. depending on which of the two above events have kicked in. The trick for each of us will be to buy or sell our Pounds or Baht, based on our individual needs as that pendulum swings back and forth, it would however be silly I think to wait in the expectation that the range might be something like 35 to 70 because that's very uinlikely, I just can't see that happening.

As for where it will be in a weeks time, I haven't a clue and I couldn't begin to guess.

Edited August 23, 2013 by chiang mai

[phutoie2]

I've lived here since oct 2009 and never saw it at 55 baht.. I wish..

 

It wasn't far off 55 to GBP in 2009. 

August 09 it was as high as 55.64, in Dec it was 52.14.

In Feb '10 it fell below 50. There was a slight increase in August '10 to 50.19 but soon fell below 50 again and had been below that since.

Sent from my i-mobile IQ 2 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[chiang mai]

Two other points that are worth mentioning:

Now that the Baht has weakened slightly that means that a) exports are more attractively priced and the BOT no longer has to spend large ammounts of money every month trying to weaken the Baht artificially, both points being Baht positive.

[chiang mai]

A sudden improvement by about 25 baht on news that one member of the MPC raised concerns over one of three criteria for future rate increases, it goes to show just how senstive markets are that they will jump at the slightest hint of the smallest shadow:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/bank-of-england/10241750/Split-over-Mark-Carneys-new-interest-rate-plan.html,

Once again the bottom line is that fundamentals remain the same, as soon as market froth settles, again, it'll be back to the previous downwards trend thus no reason to get excited is my personal view.

25 stang I presume you mean? Certainly not 25bht; that would be incredible.

http://www.bangkokbank.com/BangkokBank/WebServices/Rates/Pages/FX_Rates.aspx

Not much change really. Maybe these 47-48 levels will hold until some firm new of further £ QE. Perhapse even a little strengthening if positive economic news keeps flowing in before hand.on the other hand there are multiple other events to consider.

It's looking increasingly likely that more QE is on the cards, the markets seem to have ignored Carney's forward guidance and have priced in a rate rise for 2015 and two year gilts are up. It looks like the strategy should be to buy baht soon and to buy Pounds later, the question once again is, how low will the Pound go.

No they are not ignoring Carney at all.

"Traders have challenged the new Governor’s authority by largely ignoring the commitment. Since it was unveiled earlier this month, markets have brought forward their forecasts for a rate rise to the middle of 2015 and pushed up government borrowing costs.

The reaction has been the polar opposite of Mr Carney’s intention" .

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10264340/Carney-set-to-bolster-forward-guidance-drive.html

[JSixpack]

Lets put things into perspective. The person who bought an apartment net costs at 4.5 million baht at ~45 to the pound how few months ago? will have paid 100,000 pounds.

Next door apartment sold now at same price 4.5 million baht net at ~50 to the pound costs 90,000. So buyer number 1 has lost over 10% in a short space of time (~10,000 pounds)

No, because buyer #1 has neither sold nor yet converted the proceeds of the sale back into pounds. Meanwhile he still has the apartment regardless.

Perspective, perspective.

[yoshiwara]

Lets put things into perspective. The person who bought an apartment net costs at 4.5 million baht at ~45 to the pound how few months ago? will have paid 100,000 pounds.

Next door apartment sold now at same price 4.5 million baht net at ~50 to the pound costs 90,000. So buyer number 1 has lost over 10% in a short space of time (~10,000 pounds)

No, because buyer #1 has neither sold nor yet converted the proceeds of the sale back into pounds. Meanwhile he still has the apartment regardless.

Perspective, perspective.

Sure, but the next door neighbour is there to not let him forget.

[RAZZELL]

Lets put things into perspective. The person who bought an apartment net costs at 4.5 million baht at ~45 to the pound how few months ago? will have paid 100,000 pounds.

Next door apartment sold now at same price 4.5 million baht net at ~50 to the pound costs 90,000. So buyer number 1 has lost over 10% in a short space of time (~10,000 pounds)

No, because buyer #1 has neither sold nor yet converted the proceeds of the sale back into pounds. Meanwhile he still has the apartment regardless.

Perspective, perspective.

Sure, but the next door neighbour is there to not let him forget.

What about the "opportunity cost" of spending that £10,000 on wine, women and song?

RAZZ

[Huayrat]

I've lived here since oct 2009 and never saw it at 55 baht.. I wish..

It wasn't far off 55 to GBP in 2009.

August 09 it was as high as 55.64, in Dec it was 52.14.

In Feb '10 it fell below 50. There was a slight increase in August '10 to 50.19 but soon fell below 50 again and had been below that since.

Sent from my i-mobile IQ 2 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

I said i arrived oct 2009 so ive never saw 55 baht.. Before that is no good to me..

[chiang mai]

Perhaps if anyone understands the dynamics here they can explain it?

GBP/USD is pretty much flat yet GBP/THB is stronger (weaker Baht) - USD/YEN is weaker (stronger YEN).

Of course risk is off because of Syria so presumably funds have bought into the YEN as a result?

Presumably folks avoiding USD and going into GBP and YEN?

[Huayrat]

Perhaps if anyone understands the dynamics here they can explain it?

GBP/USD is pretty much flat yet GBP/THB is stronger (weaker Baht) - USD/YEN is weaker (stronger YEN).

Of course risk is off because of Syria so presumably funds have bought into the YEN as a result?

Presumably folks avoiding USD and going into GBP and YEN?

Looking like your wrong again chiang.. Pound gaining again and again..

[Huayrat]

It's because the British economy is getting stronger and the Thai economy is on the way down..

[mccw]

According to the data the Thai economy does seem to have stumbled a bit. The export drop is likely the result of the minimum wage increase couple with Thai bht strength peak a few months ago now showed up belatedly due to original orders to new orders time delay. Now the bht has come off its peak by around 15% it will be interesting to see if it is enough for exports to come back in the 3/4th quarters to growth or weather the minimum wage has been too big a factor in itself also. The currency weakening should be good for exports and if west demand is actually stronger / high demand for products then this is good for Thailand; but if the minimum wage has badly thrown the affordability then its hardly politically possible to turn back the clock on that one.

[chiang mai]

According to the data the Thai economy does seem to have stumbled a bit. The export drop is likely the result of the minimum wage increase couple with Thai bht strength peak a few months ago now showed up belatedly due to original orders to new orders time delay. Now the bht has come off its peak by around 15% it will be interesting to see if it is enough for exports to come back in the 3/4th quarters to growth or weather the minimum wage has been too big a factor in itself also. The currency weakening should be good for exports and if west demand is actually stronger / high demand for products then this is good for Thailand; but if the minimum wage has badly thrown the affordability then its hardly politically possible to turn back the clock on that one.

Possibly so but there's another factor in there today re Syria, apparently, and it is that I was trying to understand. Actually, looking at the charts again it seems to have settled back into it's searlier pattern and has given up the previous gains.

Edited August 27, 2013 by chiang mai

[Paangjang]

I don't know much about currency so i'll just come straight out with my question and see what sort of answers i get. I've got some sterling that i would like to exchange soonish, will the sterling get any stronger than 50฿ any time soon?

I baught the pounds at 45.6. Id like to sell them soon. Not sure whether to wait longer or go for it...

Edited August 27, 2013 by Paangjang

[Huayrat]

I don't know much about currency so i'll just come straight out with my question and see what sort of answers i get. I've got some sterling that i would like to exchange soonish, will the sterling get any stronger than 50฿ any time soon?

I baught the pounds at 45.6. Id like to sell them soon. Not sure whether to wait longer or go for it...

I think the pound will stay strong for a longtime now but if we go to war with syria then who knows.. sell them..

[mommysboy]

Also the UK is not so strong and the Thai economy not so weak, on the face of it anyway.

Who knows the reason for the plunge in both Thai stock market and baht, I don't know whether it can all be explained by simple capital outflow for repatriation. The point is the dosh could have stayed in Thailand if it was worth it !

[nong38]

The Syrian situation is affecting world markets and the price of oil, oil is going up and markets are going down. For us we dont need military action its bad for us. But the western allies seem to want to shoot off some stuff so rather than hang about and things get worse they should have their surgical stike, hope Russia stamps its feet and thats all, Lets get it over with and then we can get back to life, markets recover, oil stabilizes and life goes on for us, as for the people in Syria?

[chiang mai]

Best I can figure out is that investment money is leaving any risk scenario AND USD and is being invested into YEN, which is considered a low risk/safe haven currency, Syria being the catalyst.

[chiang mai]

I think I finally understand it: THB/GBP is weakening not because of increased weakness in the Thai economy and certainly not from any increased strength in the UK economy - have you seen anything in the past three days that would explain that, no of course not, I agree with the previous post in that respect. It's shifting because of capital outflows, funds repatriation mostly back to Japan which explains a strengthening YEN - the crisis with Syria means that YEN holders don't want to engage in USD based risk at this moment, had they done so USD would have strengthened even more.

So GBP/USD is still the one to watch but it's also worth watching what happens in Japan.

[johnnybgood]

[Rimmer]

Inflammatory reported post removed also some quoted replies

[chiang mai]

The poster has a valid point, the UK spin machine has been running at full tilt for several months in an attempt to change hearts and minds, because of that it's become difficult to know what to believe in the press. On the UK property market for example, there's around five positive spin articles each week yet when the Land Registry report is published at the end of each month it bears no relationship to the published stories (yes I know the LR report is behind by two months). So I think there is agreat deal of sceptism out there about press releases, headlines often bear no relationship to the details and even the smallest win is often made out to be a major victory yet the UK fundamentals seem not to have changed for the better, hmm he says to himself!.

[Huayrat]

The poster has a valid point, the UK spin machine has been running at full tilt for several months in an attempt to change hearts and minds, because of that it's become difficult to know what to believe in the press. On the UK property market for example, there's around five positive spin articles each week yet when the Land Registry report is published at the end of each month it bears no relationship to the published stories (yes I know the LR report is behind by two months). So I think there is agreat deal of sceptism out there about press releases, headlines often bear no relationship to the details and even the smallest win is often made out to be a major victory yet the UK fundamentals seem not to have changed for the better, hmm he says to himself!.

You don't even live in the UK so how would you know.. If you actually lived there then you would see an upturn.. Stop looking at figures it means nothing.. Why is the pound so strong then if nothing is happening back in blighty.. It's up 15% in the last 3/4 months

[Naam]

The poster has a valid point, the UK spin machine has been running at full tilt for several months in an attempt to change hearts and minds, because of that it's become difficult to know what to believe in the press. On the UK property market for example, there's around five positive spin articles each week yet when the Land Registry report is published at the end of each month it bears no relationship to the published stories (yes I know the LR report is behind by two months). So I think there is agreat deal of sceptism out there about press releases, headlines often bear no relationship to the details and even the smallest win is often made out to be a major victory yet the UK fundamentals seem not to have changed for the better, hmm he says to himself!.

You don't even live in the UK so how would you know.. If you actually lived there then you would see an upturn.. Stop looking at figures it means nothing.. Why is the pound so strong then if nothing is happening back in blighty.. It's up 15% in the last 3/4 months

the Pound is up and stronger (not strong) against the Micky-Mouse-Currency Thai Baht but not against the major currencies Dollar and €URo. that doesn't justify the assumption that there is an upturn in U.K.

looking at the last 10 years the Pound lost 43% vs. Thai Baht.

[chiang mai]

I have that poster on "ignore" hence I cannot see his posts unless somebody else quotes them - his suggestion that only a person who lives in the UK can see the upturn in the economy and that it can't be seen from the numbers confirms that poster should remain on "ignore" for a long time.

[AnotherOneAmerican]

the Pound is up and stronger (not strong) against the Micky-Mouse-Currency Thai Baht but not against the major currencies Dollar and URo. that doesn't justify the assumption that there is an upturn in U.K.

looking at the last 10 years the Pound lost 43% vs. Thai Baht.

Looking at the last 20 years the pound gained 40% Vs Thai Baht.

[chiang mai]

Since THB was pegged to USD until 1997 that's the earliest year you can begin to compare against, anything prior to 1997 is meaningless.

[RAZZELL]

Without spending all day looking...

Out of interest what is the historical baht/£ average for the last 15+ years?

Found this graph/table for the last 10 - 58.85.

Does 60 also sound about right since 1997?

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=THB&view=10Y

http://www.ozforex.com.au/forex-tools/historical-rate-tools/historical-exchange-rates

RAZZ

Edited August 28, 2013 by RAZZELL

[Naam]

Without spending all day looking...

Out of interest what is the historical baht/£ average for the last 20 years?

Found this graph/table for the last 10 - 58.85.

Does 60 also sound about right for the last 20?

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=THB&view=10Y

http://www.ozforex.com.au/forex-tools/historical-rate-tools/historical-exchange-rates

RAZZ

not sure what you mean by "historical average" Razz. here's a long term graph GBP THB (back till 1997):

[Naam]

the Pound is up and stronger (not strong) against the Micky-Mouse-Currency Thai Baht but not against the major currencies Dollar and URo. that doesn't justify the assumption that there is an upturn in U.K.

looking at the last 10 years the Pound lost 43% vs. Thai Baht.

Looking at the last 20 years the pound gained 40% Vs Thai Baht.

looking at the last 15 years the Pound lost 60% vs. Thai Baht.