GBP to THB Exchange Rate

[chiang mai]

I have to admit I was slightly surprised by the rate cut, the sole reason for that was because I hadn't thought about it, The date of the MPC meeting had fallen off my radar so I wasn't paying attention, if I had of thought about the issue I probably would have concluded that there's a really good chance they'll cut rates. Why? Because their job is to protect the domestic economy and events in Bangkok are such now that the economy is under threat hence it's a good pre-emptive move - and as was pointed out earlier, there seems little interest in protecting the bond market and preventing capital outflows, that is not the important issue.

So back to the issue of capital outflows: the Fed has made numerous statements about tapering being delayed for quite some time and being a gradual process when it does eventually begin hence outflows that are taking place currently are as a result of the political unrest and this is acting as a catalyst. At some point the unrest will end and capital will flow back into markets where there is a sound investment to be made, some of that will be in Thailand.

Finally on the issue of the exchange rate, as an earlier poster pointed out, don't overlook the fact that GBP/USD breached 63 yesterday, the majority of the depreciation in THB that you see currently is as a result of that factor, not the rate cut, not the political unrest and not funds repatriation. Is the BOT supporting THB, dunno, we'll have to wait for two weeks (despite what anyone may tell you) to see the BOT numbers).

[smedly]

inflation here is/has been driven by one thing only - a corrupt/inept government that is running out of money, normal factors that we are used to in the west don't apply here so some of you chaps need to revise your way of thinking, the two things that have influenced inflation the past two years are the minimum wage hike and the increase in taxes

A lower value Thai baht only impacts the rich in Thailand the majority of thais will see no difference in this divided society, a lower baht will help exports and that includes tourism (which is an export not an import)

[chiang mai]

You might want review the different types and sources of inflation, increasing minimum wage is only a very small part of the picture http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/2656/inflation/different-types-of-inflation/

...and also reconsider the impact of a lower value Baht. There is a trade gap, Thailand imports more than it exports and most of the things it does import serve the entire business community and not just rich hi/so's, you can review some of them here: http://atlas.media.mit.edu/country/tha/

BTW (income) taxes for the majority of the lower paid population were lowered, not raised hence that can hardly be called inflationary.

[Naam]

inflation here is/has been driven by one thing only - a corrupt/inept government that is running out of money, normal factors that we are used to in the west don't apply here so some of you chaps need to revise your way of thinking, the two things that have influenced inflation the past two years are the minimum wage hike and the increase in taxes

A lower value Thai baht only impacts the rich in Thailand the majority of thais will see no difference in this divided society, a lower baht will help exports and that includes tourism (which is an export not an import)

please define "running out of money" and explain why you think Thailand does.

[Ticker2000]

Well even though i new it would move I did not expect it to weaken this quickly.

It really is all stacked up against the baht at present coupled that it has been artifically strong since late 2008 - QE related.

53 tomorrow could be on the cards if this continues at this rate.

Edited November 28, 2013 by Ticker2000

[johnnybgood]

inflation here is/has been driven by one thing only - a corrupt/inept government that is running out of money, normal factors that we are used to in the west don't apply here so some of you chaps need to revise your way of thinking, the two things that have influenced inflation the past two years are the minimum wage hike and the increase in taxes

A lower value Thai baht only impacts the rich in Thailand the majority of thais will see no difference in this divided society, a lower baht will help exports and that includes tourism (which is an export not an import)

please define "running out of money" and explain why you think Thailand does.

May I just say.......

Why not just let other posters....... just post ?

Anybody can post lazy links to media......some link are popular

some even tell the truth.

[mccw]

 

inflation here is/has been driven by one thing only - a corrupt/inept government that is running out of money, normal factors that we are used to in the west don't apply here so some of you chaps need to revise your way of thinking, the two things that have influenced inflation the past two years are the minimum wage hike and the increase in taxes

 

A lower value Thai baht only impacts the rich in Thailand the majority of thais will see no difference in this divided society, a lower baht will help exports and that includes tourism (which is an export not an import) 

please define "running out of money" and explain why you think Thailand does.

 

 

May I just say.......

Why not just let other posters....... just post ?

 

Anybody can post lazy links to media......some link are popular

some even tell the truth.

People who talk cock sure nonsense backed up by clear illunderstandings deserve to be challenged.

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[smedly]

I'm amazed at the genius on this forum that have generally a 50 50 call and only get it right 5% of the time

I rarely post here surprise surprise but I look on and wonder...................still wondering

and the battle of the genius continues, have any of you realised it's actually quite funny

[chiang mai]

I'm amazed at the genius on this forum that have generally a 50 50 call and only get it right 5% of the time

I rarely post here surprise surprise but I look on and wonder...................still wondering

and the battle of the genius continues, have any of you realised it's actually quite funny

Well hey, you only made one post about inflation and a lower baht and you were wrong on both points hence whilst we're batting only 5%, you're still at 0%.

[smedly]

I'm amazed at the genius on this forum that have generally a 50 50 call and only get it right 5% of the time

I rarely post here surprise surprise but I look on and wonder...................still wondering

and the battle of the genius continues, have any of you realised it's actually quite funny

Well hey, you only made one post about inflation and a lower baht and you were wrong on both points hence whilst we're batting only 5%, you're still at 0%.

let me correct you

I your opinion I'm wrong - not the same as actually being wrong

[chiang mai]

I'm amazed at the genius on this forum that have generally a 50 50 call and only get it right 5% of the time

I rarely post here surprise surprise but I look on and wonder...................still wondering

and the battle of the genius continues, have any of you realised it's actually quite funny

Well hey, you only made one post about inflation and a lower baht and you were wrong on both points hence whilst we're batting only 5%, you're still at 0%.

let me correct you

I your opinion I'm wrong - not the same as actually being wrong

Sadly it's a matter of fact that inflation is driven by more factors than just corrupt governments alone, as it is that there are many different types and sources of inflation. It's also a matter of economic fact globally that a lower value currency, in this case the Baht, has negative implications only for rich people, imported oil and materials being two.

"inflation here is/has been driven by one thing only - a corrupt/inept government that is running out of money, normal factors that we are used to in the west don't apply here so some of you chaps need to revise your way of thinking, the two things that have influenced inflation the past two years are the minimum wage hike and the increase in taxes

A lower value Thai baht only impacts the rich in Thailand the majority of thais will see no difference in this divided society, a lower baht will help exports and that includes tourism (which is an export not an import)"

[Bluemoon66]

I'm sorry guys but i don't see how a strong GBP against the THB can cause inflation - unless Thailand pays for all it's imports in GBP?

As far as i can see over the last week the THB has held it's own against all other major currencies and it's just the GBP that's running riot in the currency market and not the THB weakening.

[mccw]

I'm sorry guys but i don't see how a strong GBP against the THB can cause inflation - unless Thailand pays for all it's imports in GBP?

As far as i can see over the last week the THB has held it's own against all other major currencies and it's just the GBP that's running riot in the currency market and not the THB weakening.

This is one that matters

http://bloomberg.com/quote/USDTHB:CUR

Inflation wise - buying oil, gas, raw materials for the manufacturing etc

Can see why country like china or Thailand even locally is trying to trade directly and cut out the dollar reliance but by bit.

I wonder what the Thais pay Myanmar in for their gas?

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[chiang mai]

I'm sorry guys but i don't see how a strong GBP against the THB can cause inflation - unless Thailand pays for all it's imports in GBP?

As far as i can see over the last week the THB has held it's own against all other major currencies and it's just the GBP that's running riot in the currency market and not the THB weakening.

As a general rule, if THB has weakened against GBP it's because it has weakened against USD also, that has certainly been the case since the start of this month where USD has gained 1 cent against the USD/THB pair - the gain of GBP to THB is an indirect one that best seen by looking at GBP/USD. Either way you look at it, THB weakens and imports become more expensive.

EDIT: apologies, now I've read the link above I see MCCW has explained this already, I'll just get my hat!

Edited November 29, 2013 by chiang mai

[Bluemoon66]

Guys thanks for the links but please don't tell me 'how to suck eggs' - i know the USD/THB is important to the economy of Thailand and three months ago the exchange rate was the same as it is today ie 32+ and no talk of inflation on this thread.

In the same period the GBP has improved by 4%+ and now you talk abount inflation - sorry guys don't get it because the thread title is GBP to THB exchange rate not USD

[chiang mai]

Guys thanks for the links but please don't tell me 'how to suck eggs' - i know the USD/THB is important to the economy of Thailand and three months ago the exchange rate was the same as it is today ie 32+ and no talk of inflation on this thread.

In the same period the GBP has improved by 4%+ and now you talk abount inflation - sorry guys don't get it because the thread title is GBP to THB exchange rate not USD

Apologies if it seemed as though I was trying to teach you how to suck eggs, not intended but I don't know what you know and don't know, not intended as a slight in any way - anyway, it doesn't hurt to repeat some of these things for the benefit of a wider audience.

I have no idea why inflation wasn't mentioned back in early Sept when THB was around 32, perhaps it's because the Thai economy appeared more robust at that time and hardly anyone was seriously anticipating a cut in the bank rate then, can't really think what else was going on at that time but as always, the circumstances then are not what the circumstances are today.

But back in September the central bank was not spending money defending the Baht, reserves during September grew steadily hence the current environment at 32 is far more costly than it was in September at the same rate - id central bank were to remove that support or not have adequate funds to provide that support, we'd be at a much higher number than 32.

http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/ReportPage.aspx?reportID=94&language=eng

The options going forward are that the economy will strengthen and the base rate can be increased, in which case there will not be an inflationary affect and USD/THB will normalize around 31.50 or so. Alternatively the economy will weaken, in that event BOT must keep spending reserves to keep the rate at 32 or cease, voluntarily or involuntarily and allow the rate to become what, 35 or so, in which case imports become more expensive.

EDIT: apologies for needing to keep talking about USD but when we're talking about the Thai economy or about GBP/THB there is no choice.

Edited November 29, 2013 by chiang mai

[smedly]

Guys thanks for the links but please don't tell me 'how to suck eggs' - i know the USD/THB is important to the economy of Thailand and three months ago the exchange rate was the same as it is today ie 32+ and no talk of inflation on this thread.

In the same period the GBP has improved by 4%+ and now you talk abount inflation - sorry guys don't get it because the thread title is GBP to THB exchange rate not USD

Apologies if it seemed as though I was trying to teach you how to suck eggs, not intended but I don't know what you know and don't know, not intended as a slight in any way - anyway, it doesn't hurt to repeat some of these things for the benefit of a wider audience.

I have no idea why inflation wasn't mentioned back in early Sept when THB was around 32, perhaps it's because the Thai economy appeared more robust at that time and hardly anyone was seriously anticipating a cut in the bank rate then, can't really think what else was going on at that time but as always, the circumstances then are not what the circumstances are today.

But back in September the central bank was not spending money defending the Baht, reserves during September grew steadily hence the current environment at 32 is far more costly than it was in September at the same rate - id central bank were to remove that support or not have adequate funds to provide that support, we'd be at a much higher number than 32.

http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/ReportPage.aspx?reportID=94&language=eng

The options going forward are that the economy will strengthen and the base rate can be increased, in which case there will not be an inflationary affect and USD/THB will normalize around 31.50 or so. Alternatively the economy will weaken, in that event BOT must keep spending reserves to keep the rate at 32 or cease, voluntarily or involuntarily and allow the rate to become what, 35 or so, in which case imports become more expensive.

EDIT: apologies for needing to keep talking about USD but when we're talking about the Thai economy or about GBP/THB there is no choice.

again your post is as though it was stating fact rather than an opinion - the very reason why many here tend to ignore or challenge your posts - the fact that over time many of your "opinions have been wrong" supports my opinion - perhaps if you didn't try to ram it down peoples throats as fact you might actually get people to listen and respect your "opinion" .....it's all in the wording oh great one

[chiang mai]

Guys thanks for the links but please don't tell me 'how to suck eggs' - i know the USD/THB is important to the economy of Thailand and three months ago the exchange rate was the same as it is today ie 32+ and no talk of inflation on this thread.

In the same period the GBP has improved by 4%+ and now you talk abount inflation - sorry guys don't get it because the thread title is GBP to THB exchange rate not USD

Apologies if it seemed as though I was trying to teach you how to suck eggs, not intended but I don't know what you know and don't know, not intended as a slight in any way - anyway, it doesn't hurt to repeat some of these things for the benefit of a wider audience.

I have no idea why inflation wasn't mentioned back in early Sept when THB was around 32, perhaps it's because the Thai economy appeared more robust at that time and hardly anyone was seriously anticipating a cut in the bank rate then, can't really think what else was going on at that time but as always, the circumstances then are not what the circumstances are today.

But back in September the central bank was not spending money defending the Baht, reserves during September grew steadily hence the current environment at 32 is far more costly than it was in September at the same rate - id central bank were to remove that support or not have adequate funds to provide that support, we'd be at a much higher number than 32.

http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/ReportPage.aspx?reportID=94&language=eng

The options going forward are that the economy will strengthen and the base rate can be increased, in which case there will not be an inflationary affect and USD/THB will normalize around 31.50 or so. Alternatively the economy will weaken, in that event BOT must keep spending reserves to keep the rate at 32 or cease, voluntarily or involuntarily and allow the rate to become what, 35 or so, in which case imports become more expensive.

EDIT: apologies for needing to keep talking about USD but when we're talking about the Thai economy or about GBP/THB there is no choice.

again your post is as though it was stating fact rather than an opinion - the very reason why many here tend to ignore or challenge your posts - the fact that over time many of your "opinions have been wrong" supports my opinion - perhaps if you didn't try to ram it down peoples throats as fact you might actually get people to listen and respect your "opinion" .....it's all in the wording oh great one

If posters cannot distinguish between fact and opinion in what was written above, they probably shouldn't be following this discussion. And the FACT remains that what you wrote earlier was not entirely factual, that's why it was challenged by a couple of people. Regardless, we value your opinion!

[smedly]

Most of my posts here are opinion open for debate

You however post opinions as facts - just because you post a link to someone elses opinion does not make it a fact - the only fact is that they said it

It is you who are confused my friend and that is my opinion - some people may regard it as a fact though but that is up to them

Facts about Thailands commerce are hard to come by with a government that admits to telling lies (that's a fact) ask your average Thai how much their weekly expenditure has increased the last two years - that is inflation and that is a fact, also ask how much family debt has increased the last two years - figures seem to indicate that Thai families are borrowing heavily simply to support themselves

In my opinion this government has run out of money hence the 2x trillion loan dress up as some sort of infrastructure investment - the key is in the detail, they do not have to account for were it is spent - in other words it's an open check book in my opinion

Reading between the lines this government is in deep doo doo and that is my opinion

[chiang mai]

Most of my posts here are opinion open for debate

You however post opinions as facts - just because you post a link to someone elses opinion does not make it a fact - the only fact is that they said it

It is you who are confused my friend and that is my opinion - some people may regard it as a fact though but that is up to them

I'm sorry Smedly you cannot accept there are different types of inflation and that you consider the link I provided you with as merely another persons opinion, I can't help help you with that I'm afraid. http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/2656/inflation/different-types-of-inflation/

[smedly]

I didn't read any of the links you posted

I also stand by my original opinion - application of western fundamentals on a 3rd world country such as Thailand is thwart with danger - things are not always what they seem here and trust in government figures of any type are quite frankly risky, I have learned to read between the lines when it comes to Thailand and with that in mind it is difficult to apply general fundamentals when the data is extremely suspect - just my opinion of course

[mccw]

I didn't read any of the links you posted

 

I also stand by my original opinion - application of western fundamentals on a 3rd world country such as Thailand is thwart with danger - things are not always what they seem here and trust in government figures of any type are quite frankly risky, I have learned to read between the lines when it comes to Thailand and with that in mind it is difficult to apply general fundamentals when the data is extremely suspect - just my opinion of course

In my opinion - its a good idea to read between the lines of every nations actions / claims / figures.

If Thailand borrowing from the open market (which will leave debt to GDP at under 50% still) = deep doo doo , what does Great Britian's QE/ self created money printing = ?

My opinion is the western QE / printing is the real original banana republic style actions right now.

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[wooloomooloo]

...and Bangkok Bank closes at a healthy [for me] 51.76 to 1 GBP.

[chiang mai]

Goldmans says the UK is looking good, very good:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10483109/Goldman-Sachs-upgrades-UK-growth-and-expects-earlier-interest-rate-rise.html

Of note :

"As potential risks, Goldman Sachs has said that an appreciation in sterling could drag on growth pointing out the the pound is now 4.5pc stronger on a trade-weighted basis than its was during the first half of the year. The bank also said that pent-up spending demand may fade, meaning that households and businesses will cut back on recent spending".

[mccw]

In case nobody noticed; it is reported that BoE has with drawn the "funding for lending" in regards to the mortgage part of it, to "cool the housing market".

I was quite surprised by this.

At the same time the government is widening and ramping up the help to buy scheme / 20% gov backed mortgages.

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[chiang mai]

In case nobody noticed; it is reported that BoE has with drawn the "funding for lending" in regards to the mortgage part of it, to "cool the housing market".

I was quite surprised by this.

At the same time the government is widening and ramping up the help to buy scheme / 20% gov backed mortgages.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

I knew about the first part but not the second, any idea why, on the surface it seems like an odd move?

[mccw]

In case nobody noticed; it is reported that BoE has with drawn the "funding for lending" in regards to the mortgage part of it, to "cool the housing market".

I was quite surprised by this.

At the same time the government is widening and ramping up the help to buy scheme / 20% gov backed mortgages.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

 

I knew about the first part but not the second, any idea why, on the surface it seems like an odd move?

Most curious yes.

Many ways could think on this:

1) the official story is the bank is focusing on SME lending where it is most needed supposedly- but in my view that nonsense because this is bank created money so not like a limit to what they can do / no reason they can not do both if the didn't want to.

2) the gov is happy for a housing boom just in time for election happy voters; but BoE is genuinely worried about the rate of increases and they can not do anything on the help to buy or date to raise interest rates but this is one lever that can be pulled. - I am still surprised though because as you know the housing boom is basically only London and SE while the rest of the country is just about head above water.

3) (conspiracies side) carney and of his real boss have a plan to discredit the government, maybe an interest rate rise could come sooner than we thought- before the ellection to <deleted> everybody up and get the Tories out and labour in so they can get a propper loose money project underway.

Labours first move was they made the bank I dependant in 97 and instituted the media back crazy and costly PPP and deregulation, a few wars and other crap policies; perhaps they do a deal with labour to be the corporate American slaves in the next wave of horrors. No EU referendum- which the US has already stuck thier nose in to. Wouldn't want anybody getting in the way of the globalist agenda.

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[chiang mai]

Real boss! You don't mean Blankfein by chance

[mccw]

This from sky news app:

"""

Mortgage approvals have hit their highest level since February 2008 while total household debt reached a new record last month, according to figures released by the Bank of England.

The Bank reported that 67,701 home loans worth £10.5bn were dished out in October - just 24 hours after confirming that its Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) would no longer support mortgage borrowing from January to help prevent the market overheating and future debt risks.

It also highlighted rising consumer debt levels in separate figures which reflected concern over the property market, as total household debt hit a new high of £1.43trn in October.

The figures add weight to fears of a 'perfect storm' for the economy amid unsustainable debt levels, rising prices and low wage growth.

""""

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[chiang mai]

An interesting commentary from Roubini on the housing picture, the UK property scenario has not escaped international attention:

"What we are witnessing in many countries looks like a slow-motion replay of the last housing-market train wreck. And, like last time, the bigger the bubbles become, the nastier the collision with reality will be".

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nouriel-roubini-warns-that-policymmakers-are-powerless-to-rein-in-frothy-housing-markets-around-the-world

For the avoidance of doubt: the above is opinion, but since the man accurately predicted the last housing crash he could be worth paying attention to, up to you however.