GBP to THB Exchange Rate

[Ticker2000]

I also updated my views that the UK policy is wanting a weaker pound by a few % as they had previously talked about. However looking at the politics now all about the cost of living and energy bills I think its possible/ likely the gov will be happy around this dollar mark and given the good stats I quoted from the pmi they could well consider that things on that side are doing fine as they are. Keep things on an even keep for now n wait and see how things going.

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If was just the Uk gov at play I would agree - as you and I know the money that creates the sharp movements considers that UK as just one of the pieces (dare I say it smaller that I as I Brit would care to admit)

[mccw]

US news; this out today:

The U.S. manufacturing purchasing manager's index climbed to 54.7, up from 51.8 in October and beat analysts expectations for an unchanged reading.

It was the strongest improvement since January, although the three-month average remined broadly in line, with production continuing at an annualized growth rate of 2.5% a month.

-biz insider app

Something that may bring the rate back in the nearish future is the debt debacle / Washington politics coming round for another scrap start of next year. This coupled with a Thai political solution could easily being the rate back to the 48-50 (the area which I see as the kinda most relevant mean.)

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[mccw]

Some info about the new rules on UK property taxes and ways to get around them that some might find interesting:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/expat-money/9760320/How-to-escape-the-offshore-property-tax-trap.html

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[Naam]

US news; this out today:

The U.S. manufacturing purchasing manager's index climbed to 54.7, up from 51.8 in October and beat analysts expectations for an unchanged reading.

It was the strongest improvement since January, although the three-month average remined broadly in line, with production continuing at an annualized growth rate of 2.5% a month.

-biz insider app

Something that may bring the rate back in the nearish future is the debt debacle / Washington politics coming round for another scrap start of next year. This coupled with a Thai political solution could easily being the rate back to the 48-50 (the area which I see as the kinda most relevant mean.)

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that is clearly high treason fellow Brits! shall we ask our the former colonials whether they have space in Guantanamo?

[Ticker2000]

US news; this out today:

The U.S. manufacturing purchasing manager's index climbed to 54.7, up from 51.8 in October and beat analysts expectations for an unchanged reading.

It was the strongest improvement since January, although the three-month average remined broadly in line, with production continuing at an annualized growth rate of 2.5% a month.

-biz insider app

Something that may bring the rate back in the nearish future is the debt debacle / Washington politics coming round for another scrap start of next year. This coupled with a Thai political solution could easily being the rate back to the 48-50 (the area which I see as the kinda most relevant mean.)

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that is clearly high treason fellow Brits! shall we ask our the former colonials whether they have space in Guantanamo?

Cutting through to the heart of the debate yet again. Always welcome!

[chiang mai]

Ticker

When you say 60 in event of QE- you mean thai QE? (Never heard of such on the cards. Surely not 60 if UK QE, since that would weaken the pound not the bht. If QE in UK I'd put the rate at more like around 40.

I agree on your other two points. But would add if / when the politics in bkk settles down then the bht weakens dissipates and things get back to around 48-50 ish.

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No just if the topic of US tapering appears press wise again in conjunction with other things at play. Unlikely to actualise in the very short term (actual tapering) given the info we here have access to. But it will happen and you might find that the markets are pricing in the remainder of US tapering prematurely (now) than if there was no domestic stability.

Think of the domestic instability and the ongoing/increasing worries about the Thai economy as a new bridge in terms of big players minds.

Ie. Why wait for the inevitable tapering - lets just get on an adjust our positions re Thailand as if the tapering is already in action. It is what I would do.....

Wipe Thailand off the slate for now.....

If there was a real recovery/ uptick in demand from the west then this would boost the Thai economy / producer countries. So after this taper rotation out- the next logical flow would be back to Asia again. Profit taking both ways of vourse. Like tides will return, but where the highs and lows are? Around 55 maybe this time then back to 48ish next time. Talking over next couple or so years years here.

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I can tell that you put a lot of effort into determining those numbers mccw , my take however is slightly different:

My interpretation of events in Thailand currently is, now that the troubles in Bangkok have become serious and people have been killed, that the end of the unrest is in sight, I therefore don't see THB getting much weaker as a result, not based on Thai political unrest issues that is and I think the rush towards 53 was probably an overshoot.

On the subject of QE tapering: all the statements made thus far are that this is a "not any time soon" issues and when it does come it will be very gradual and accommodating, nowhere other than in this thread have there been statements made that it might overwhelm. Hedge Funds tend to be early adopters hence they were mostly out of the Thai market at 45 by all accounts that I read, what's left is institutional investors who are geared more towards the longer term.

GBP/USD: remains too strong in my view, Moody's, when asked about the performance of the UK economy and whether or not the downgrade from AAA in February should be reversed, said words to the effect of, the country has surprised to the upside which is great but the downgrade resulted from the already substantial and growing volume of debt, not deficit reduction performance nor growth projections.

Finally, the needs of the resident expat and those of the currency daytrader are different, one needs THB to invest and spend on a day to day basis whilst the other is intent on maximizing profit in a short window, (granted he/she may do so via consecutive windows). So for the expat, THB buying opportunities present themselves from time to time and much of anything above 50 represents such an opportunity as you yourself decided recently - a current strike price of anything over 52 is exceptionally good in my book. But having bought THB, why would the expat decide to sell it simply based on a fear that something might happen in the future, most expats wouldn't trade THB for USD or anything else for that matter simply because of a future risk, they need THB to survive, the day trader does not.

EDIT: And here's a link to an article written by an experienced economist who talks about some of the points mentioned above, it serves as factual support combined with views (opinions) of those who are close to the coal face and whose views should be considered. For those of you who cannot distinguish opinion from fact, don't bother opening the link, it'll just get you even more confused.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10489768/Derivative-markets-have-already-upgraded-Britain-to-AAA.html

Edited December 3, 2013 by chiang mai

[mccw]

""""

Households are pulling money out of their savings accounts at the fastest rate in modern record, according to Bank of England figures.

In the past year, families have withdrawn £23bn from their long-term savings accounts to convert into cash and put into current accounts - the equivalent of around £900 for every household in the country.

It is the most dramatic evidence yet that Britons are paying for the rising cost of living by raiding their savings accounts.

"""

Sky news; which also has a piece about RBS and Natwest running out of money again , oops , I mean IT technical problems, again - this on cyber Monday, ie an exceptionally busy day for payments- like a bank run and the cash on hand runs dry.

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[mccw]

""""

Households are pulling money out of their savings accounts at the fastest rate in modern record, according to Bank of England figures.

In the past year, families have withdrawn £23bn from their long-term savings accounts to convert into cash and put into current accounts - the equivalent of around £900 for every household in the country.

It is the most dramatic evidence yet that Britons are paying for the rising cost of living by raiding their savings accounts.

"""

Sky news; which also has a piece about RBS and Natwest running out of money again , oops , I mean IT technical problems, again - this on cyber Monday, ie an exceptionally busy day for payments- like a bank run and the cash on hand runs dry.

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[FiftyTwo]

""""

Households are pulling money out of their savings accounts at the fastest rate in modern record, according to Bank of England figures.

In the past year, families have withdrawn £23bn from their long-term savings accounts to convert into cash and put into current accounts - the equivalent of around £900 for every household in the country.

It is the most dramatic evidence yet that Britons are paying for the rising cost of living by raiding their savings accounts.

"""

Alternatively

It proves 0.5% interest isn't worth having, so you might as well keep it in your current account.

[mccw]

""""

Households are pulling money out of their savings accounts at the fastest rate in modern record, according to Bank of England figures.

In the past year, families have withdrawn £23bn from their long-term savings accounts to convert into cash and put into current accounts - the equivalent of around £900 for every household in the country.

It is the most dramatic evidence yet that Britons are paying for the rising cost of living by raiding their savings accounts.

"""

Alternatively

It proves 0.5% interest isn't worth having, so you might as well keep it in your current account.

But then why the big jump this year when low savings rates have been a feature of the last 5 years?

Maybe people are spending it on essentials and maybe some are getting back to spending on discretionary after a few years saving and not feeling confident, perhapse given all the cheery headlines that confidence is returning. Good for the economy stats short term maybe but not so good for the banks already slender Cap ratios.

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[SheungWan]

Carney says basically - Homeowners must find a way to pay their mortgages if interest rates rise because they will not be guaranteed a helping hand, the governor of the Bank of England has warned.

Maybe homeowners can ask their parents' advice as to how they coped in the '80s at up to 17%.

I recall having a mortgage at ~ 13% and I am here to tell the tale.

[topt]

Carney says basically - Homeowners must find a way to pay their mortgages if interest rates rise because they will not be guaranteed a helping hand, the governor of the Bank of England has warned.

Maybe homeowners can ask their parents' advice as to how they coped in the '80s at up to 17%.

I recall having a mortgage at ~ 13% and I am here to tell the tale.

And I can remember the figure 16 point something but at the time I did not know any better and it was what it was. I don't remember savings rates as after paying the mortgage there was bugger all left!

[mccw]

I bet at those rates the mortgage cash amount was much less and your generation have had consistently falling interest rates to help as the cost of living/ inflation has increased (along with the values of your properties- you lucky guys you). While a new generation have a starting point of taking on huge debts and low rate but proportionally just as bad affordability/ not much spare cash after life's essentials to put by for savings. Can interest rates drop for another 3decades to help us out? - no obviously, but the cost of living almost certainly will. So is the market sustainable; maybe as property moves to the hands of investors and away form residential new buyers- there have been a few reports on this already. But if interest rates start moving up by much I think it could have shocks to the system on the way, which rental investors would then buy in at.

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[SheungWan]

There are periods when the strength of the pound gives one the opportunity to take opportunities elsewhere, but experience points to these periods as windows of opportunity rather than permanent shifts. Cable feels that way, but GBPTHB not similarly at all.

[i claudius]

I bet at those rates the mortgage cash amount was much less and your generation have had consistently falling interest rates to help as the cost of living/ inflation has increased (along with the values of your properties- you lucky guys you). While a new generation have a starting point of taking on huge debts and low rate but proportionally just as bad affordability/ not much spare cash after life's essentials to put by for savings. Can interest rates drop for another 3decades to help us out? - no obviously, but the cost of living almost certainly will. So is the market sustainable; maybe as property moves to the hands of investors and away form residential new buyers- there have been a few reports on this already. But if interest rates start moving up by much I think it could have shocks to the system on the way, which rental investors would then buy in at.

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Yes.and we had far lower wages ,i remember when we baught our first house worrying big time how the hell we were going to manage to pay our 6 pounds a month rates to the councill.

sent from my megaphone.

[mccw]

People will have to work until they are 68 years old before receiving a state pension from the mid 2030s, in a move that will raise around £400bn for the Treasury.

Chancellor George Osborne will also announce the age will rise to 69 in the 2040s in his Autumn Statement.

The changes will affect people aged 49 or younger.

A Government source said: "This is part of the Government's long-term plan to secure a responsible recovery.

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[Naam]

People will have to work until they are 68 years old before receiving a state pension from the mid 2030s, in a move that will raise around £400bn for the Treasury.

how will that affect the GBPTHB exchange rate?

[smokie36]

People will have to work until they are 68 years old before receiving a state pension from the mid 2030s, in a move that will raise around £400bn for the Treasury.

how will that affect the GBPTHB exchange rate?

I'm glad my champagne is free Naam....so will the pound be worth 75 Baht by the time I land tomorrow morning?

Let's keep this conversation real for most of us please.....or is it likely to continue more sensibly towards say 55?

[Naam]

People will have to work until they are 68 years old before receiving a state pension from the mid 2030s, in a move that will raise around £400bn for the Treasury.

how will that affect the GBPTHB exchange rate?

I'm glad my champagne is free Naam....so will the pound be worth 75 Baht by the time I land tomorrow morning?

Let's keep this conversation real for most of us please.....or is it likely to continue more sensibly towards say 55?

my best [un]educated guess is that the chance is very slim for a Pound to buy 75 Baht tomorrow. i also have strong doubts that the change in UK retirement age will have any effect as far as the exchange rates of any currency vs. Thai Baht is concerned.

for you and all my British friends (and enemies) i extend my best wishes for a strong Pound.

may the force be with Sterling! ...to stop the moaning

[smokie36]

People will have to work until they are 68 years old before receiving a state pension from the mid 2030s, in a move that will raise around £400bn for the Treasury.

how will that affect the GBPTHB exchange rate?

I'm glad my champagne is free Naam....so will the pound be worth 75 Baht by the time I land tomorrow morning?

Let's keep this conversation real for most of us please.....or is it likely to continue more sensibly towards say 55?

my best [un]educated guess is that the chance is very slim for a Pound to buy 75 Baht tomorrow. i also have strong doubts that the change in UK retirement age will have any effect as far as the exchange rates of any currency vs. Thai Baht is concerned.

for you and all my British friends (and enemies) i extend my best wishes for a strong Pound.

may the force be with Sterling! ...to stop the moaning

I love a good pint of Wiessbeer and an off the shoulder dirndl....so don't hold back Naam....will I be better changing my pounds now or in a months time?

[chiang mai]

Not even George Osbourne, George Soros or George Carlin could give you a more serious answer I'm afraid!

[mccw]

People will have to work until they are 68 years old before receiving a state pension from the mid 2030s, in a move that will raise around £400bn for the Treasury.

how will that affect the GBPTHB exchange rate?

I think in the long term raising the pension age amongst other liability stabilisation steps will help maintain the value of the pound by avoiding the need for back door printing and or excessive inflation to cover/ pay for all the promised give aways.

(I am under 40 and expect the retirement age will be risen again, implemented sooner and such, which I welcome.)

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[mccw]

"""""

Last Updated 20:45 05/12/2013

The main measures and forecasts as outlined by the Chancellor George Osborne in his Autumn Statement:

ECONOMY

:: Aim is "To fix the roof while the sun is shining" rather than spend beyond our means.

:: "We will not let up in dealing with our country's debts."

:: OBR expects national debt to be 75.5% of GDP this year, £18bn lower than forecast.

:: OBR says 2013/14 borrowing forecast is revised down to £111bn - £9bn less than expected.

:: OBR forecasts underlying measure of deficit revised down to 6.8% this year, no deficit by 2018/19.

:: OBR forecasts 7.6% jobless rate in 2013, falling to 7% in 2015.

:: Doubling export finance capacity to £50bn.

:: Britain is currently growing faster than any other major world economy.

:: OBR GDP growth forecast for 2014 rises to 2.2% from 1.8%.

:: Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) more than doubles forecast for GDP growth in 2013 to 1.4% from 0.6%.

:: Pays tribute to "the sacrifice and endeavour of the British people."

:: "Britain's economic plan is working but the job is not done."

TAX

:: New £1,000 transferable tax allowance for married couples from April. Allowance to be uprated.

:: Levy on bank balance sheets to rise to 0.156% - to raise £2.7bn in 2014/15.

:: Capital Gains Tax to be paid by foreign sellers of UK homes from April 2015.

:: Tax and fraud measures to raise £9bn over five years.

WELFARE

:: Increase in state pension age to 68 in mid 2030s and 69 in late 2040s.

:: State Pension to rise by £2.95 a week from April.

JOBS

:: To promote youth employment, National Insurance contributions removed for workers aged under 21.

TRANSPORT

:: Plans to increase train fares by 1% above inflation from January cancelled, so they go up in line with inflation.

:: Fuel Duty rise cancelled for next year.

ENERGY

:: Green levies on energy bills rolled back by average £50 per household.

BUSINESS

:: To help improve shop vacancy rates in town centres, discount in business rates for small retailers in England.

:: Extending small business rate relief. Rate rises capped at 2% from April.

EDUCATION

:: 30,000 more student places next year with cap abolished in 2015 - Higher education investment funded by sale of old student loan book.

:: 18 to 21-year olds required to undertake training or lose benefits.

:: Free school meals for all children in reception, year one and year two.

HOUSING MARKET

:: OBR forecasts house prices 3.1% lower in 2018 than 2007 peak.

:: Bank of England has power to take action to ensure a functioning, stable housing market.

:: £1bn of loans to unlock large housing developments outside London.

SPENDING

:: £100m more of Libor fines to be made available to Armed Forces and emergency service charities.

:: Government's contingency reserve reduced by £1bn this year and departmental budgets by similar amount in the next two years, saving £3bn - NHS, schools and security services exempted.

:: Whitehall spending cut by £1bn over next two years.

:: To cap total welfare spending from next year though state pension excluded.

"""""

-sky news app

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[Naam]

my best [un]educated guess is that the chance is very slim for a Pound to buy 75 Baht tomorrow. i also have strong doubts that the change in UK retirement age will have any effect as far as the exchange rates of any currency vs. Thai Baht is concerned.

for you and all my British friends (and enemies) i extend my best wishes for a strong Pound.

may the force be with Sterling! ...to stop the moaning

I love a good pint of Wiessbeer and an off the shoulder dirndl....so don't hold back Naam....will I be better changing my pounds now or in a months time?

my answer is -without the slightest doubt or hesitation- a clear "yes" Smokie.

[mccw]

Received an email from my mortgage broker this morning saying that because of the withdrawal of the "funding for lending" rates (those charged by the lenders) will be rising next year- most likely in January with slight rises there after. So we see the effects of interest rate rises with out the base rate actually rising. This maybe Carney's plan but it looks a dangerous one to me when the price boom is basically London only with other areas only really just having stabilised.

I am selling up process now looking to fin by end Q3 next year to paying off debt while the goings good.

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[alfieconn]

Received an email from my mortgage broker this morning saying that because of the withdrawal of the "funding for lending" rates (those charged by the lenders) will be rising next year- most likely in January with slight rises there after. So we see the effects of interest rate rises with out the base rate actually rising. This maybe Carney's plan but it looks a dangerous one to me when the price boom is basically London only with other areas only really just having stabilised.

I am selling up process now looking to fin by end Q3 next year to paying off debt while the goings good.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Yep get it sold before Apr 2015 !

[mccw]

Received an email from my mortgage broker this morning saying that because of the withdrawal of the "funding for lending" rates (those charged by the lenders) will be rising next year- most likely in January with slight rises there after. So we see the effects of interest rate rises with out the base rate actually rising. This maybe Carney's plan but it looks a dangerous one to me when the price boom is basically London only with other areas only really just having stabilised.

I am selling up process now looking to fin by end Q3 next year to paying off debt while the goings good.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

 

Yep get it sold before Apr 2015 !

Yeah exactly!

That's worse than the rates increase. All those foriegn buyers / holders who pushed up London prices will probably now want to cash in rather than pay 40 bloody % tax. Next year well see a full blown crash; who knows.

The 15grand a year charge on props over 2 mill won't help either

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[alfieconn]

Received an email from my mortgage broker this morning saying that because of the withdrawal of the "funding for lending" rates (those charged by the lenders) will be rising next year- most likely in January with slight rises there after. So we see the effects of interest rate rises with out the base rate actually rising. This maybe Carney's plan but it looks a dangerous one to me when the price boom is basically London only with other areas only really just having stabilised.

I am selling up process now looking to fin by end Q3 next year to paying off debt while the goings good.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Yep get it sold before Apr 2015 !

Yeah exactly!

That's worse than the rates increase. All those foriegn buyers / holders who pushed up London prices will probably now want to cash in rather than pay 40 bloody % tax. Next year well see a full blown crash; who knows.

The 15grand a year charge on props over 2 mill won't help either

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To be fair, it hasn't been announced how it's going to pan out, some people have said that it may be the value of the property at Apr 2015 to be used as the base value, so any historic gains wouldn't come into the equation.

[mccw]

 

 

Received an email from my mortgage broker this morning saying that because of the withdrawal of the "funding for lending" rates (those charged by the lenders) will be rising next year- most likely in January with slight rises there after. So we see the effects of interest rate rises with out the base rate actually rising. This maybe Carney's plan but it looks a dangerous one to me when the price boom is basically London only with other areas only really just having stabilised.

I am selling up process now looking to fin by end Q3 next year to paying off debt while the goings good.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

 

Yep get it sold before Apr 2015 !

 

Yeah exactly!

That's worse than the rates increase. All those foriegn buyers / holders who pushed up London prices will probably now want to cash in rather than pay 40 bloody % tax. Next year well see a full blown crash; who knows.

The 15grand a year charge on props over 2 mill won't help either

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To be fair, it hasn't been announced how it's going to pan out, some people have said that it may be the value of the property at Apr 2015 to be used as the base value, so any historic gains wouldn't come into the equation.

Making it from current values might help stave off a rush for the exit but 40% cap gains tax makes UK for foreign investors suddenly jump from one of the best to one the worst tax wise.

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[Naam]

somebody enlighten me please where i can find details of the future 40% UK capital gains tax on property sales.