Why The Current Dollar/baht Exchane Rate?

[IMA_FARANG]

Can somebody give a rational explanation of why the Dollar/Baht rate has dropped below 30 Baht for a dollar in the last week or so?

I know rates will flluctuate all the time .... and I expect that.

But I can't figure out what the bad news regarding the dollar is or what the good news regarding the Baht is that would force such a change this quickly.

Maybe, I missed something?

Or is somebody just getting rid of Dollars or getting into Baht?

[kblaze]

Global risk appetite is back on. Meaning non-safety currencies and emerging market currencies are being invested in. Thailand's SET was on fire last year, returning around 30%. FDI (foreign direct investment) is heating up. Thai exports/auto production/tourism/banks are all doing very very well.

Its not about things going bad for the dollar - its more about things pushing the baht up. In fact if the world economy, US included, takes a dive, the baht, since its still considered a "risky" currency will lose strength.

[kblaze]

I forgot to mention the Thai central bank hasn't cut its policy rate (interest rate) in their last meetings. Meanwhile the Fed has cut its rate as far down as it really can and it doesnt plan on raising the rate either. When rates are raised its usually a sign of a strengthening economy and the respective currency will follow suit.

[Ticketmaster]

It's quite simple. The US is handling its debt problems by inflating it's money supply. They call it "quantitative easing." Now that's a nice term and it might even work, but simply put, it is a deliberate and managed inflating of the money supply. The Thai baht on the other hand is healthy and inflation is controlled. Since the exchange rate is based on the relative values of currencies, when one is inflated and another stays steady, you are going to see the kind of change in exchange you are seeing vis a vis the dollar and baht.

I am an American. I finally qualify for the Social Security retirement supplement I have paid for all my life. What the US government is doing with its managed inflation scheme is stealing a portion of it's citizen's wealth. Government managed inflation is nothing but a hidden wealth tax. To those Social Security recipients living in the US, the tax is not so apparent, though the benefit has lost purchasing power at a greater rate than the cost of living increases. But when you live overseas and convert the benefit to a stable currency like the baht, the theft (or tax) becomes painfully apparent.

[55Jay]

I don't think it is any ONE thing, rather related events and issues. Additionally, from what I've read, this current, hot inflow of cash is not wholey embraced by Thai regulators, makes them nervous as they consider it short term money, so strenghtening of the baht may be a mechanism, by design or default, or both, to discourage/slow down off shore inflows. I can almost put myself in their shoes. Soon as a new and better deal surfaces elsewhere, the sharks and their money will be gone.

I'm far from being any sort of expert, just try to make some sort of sense out of interconnected events, trends and cause and effect. Otherwise I'm sitting here praying for 30.5 again, at least, then shift more USD into Baht locally to hedge against this forex fluctuation. Now that I'm living here full-time, I've got to get into Baht mindset, not on holiday anymore, but without over-exposing either. Need to figure out a good level of diversification.

[rekkie]

I think t is even more simple than all the above.

The US is in the biggest financial mess ever and cannot stop the rising debt

Thiland is prospering

Which currency do you think should be worth more...its a no brainer!