Why Are You Even Here? The Surprising Attitudes of Some Expats in Thailand

[manarak]

I see many posts rambling about a supposed strength of the Baht, but posters do not realize their flawed perspective.

The Baht doesn't move much, it's the USD correlated currencies that are currently tanking badly, some of them for different reasons.

But the essence of my message is: the problems emanate from the western currencies, not from the Thai Baht.

And now is an interesting time for Forex traders :-)

[Naam]

And now is an interesting time for Forex traders :-)

when do we start shorting €UR vs USD?

[manarak]

And now is an interesting time for Forex traders :-)

when do we start shorting €UR vs USD?

If only I knew!

It's a race in airplanes... the first to hit the ground...

[james5121]

And now is an interesting time for Forex traders :-)

when do we start shorting €UR vs USD?

If only I knew!

It's a race in airplanes... the first to hit the ground...

UH, in this race do you foresee a bounce? D

[Naam]

And now is an interesting time for Forex traders :-)

when do we start shorting €UR vs USD?

If only I knew!

It's a race in airplanes... the first to hit the ground...

UH, in this race do you foresee a bounce? D

i expect a bounce. but expecting doesn't mean i'm right.

[manarak]

i expect a bounce. but expecting doesn't mean i'm right.

The movements are not smooth at the moment, falling knives and such...

Bounce expectations are dangerous things to trade on.

I like the saying "the trend is my friend"

[terryp]

they are all playing the game of currency debasement..to make exports cheaper and keep workers in jobs

[Naam]

i expect a bounce. but expecting doesn't mean i'm right.

The movements are not smooth at the moment, falling knives and such...

Bounce expectations are dangerous things to trade on.

I like the saying "the trend is my friend"

most trends have limits. remember the german proverb: "trees don't grow skyhigh!"

addendum: i'm thinking of a 1Y straight forward which i can close anytime if the trend is not my friend.

Edited February 2, 2013 by Naam

[Rinrada]

The worst I ever got was 33 Bt to the pound but a beer then was only 15 ..sign of the times

[Naam]

The worst I ever got was 33 Bt to the pound but a beer then was only 15 ..sign of the times

i remember when a Dollar bought 20 Baht. but then a huge big lobster was 250, taxi fare BKK-Pattaya was 250, bar fine was 40 and a working girl charged 300 (per day!).

[davejones]

I think the OP is wrong. The GBP and USD are both starting to collapse against the EURO, but the Baht is still strengthening against the EURO. If the OP was correct, then how come the Baht is strengthen against the EURO? The EURO is very string at the moment.

[davejones]

they are all playing the game of currency debasement..to make exports cheaper and keep workers in jobs

Not true at all. You're probably just repeating some nonsense you read somewhere. If not, explain and give some examples of how you came to your conclusion. Euro zone is still in recession, but their currencies is strengthening in leaps and bounds. According to you they are trying to devalue it. Laughable. Devaluing your currency makes imports expensive, and in many cases would completely destroy an economy, not save it. Back to Economics 101 for you.

[Ticketmaster]

"I see many posts rambling about a supposed strength of the Baht, but posters do not realize their flawed perspective.

The Baht doesn't move much, it's the USD correlated currencies that are currently tanking badly, some of them for different reasons.

But the essence of my message is: the problems emanate from the western currencies, not from the Thai Baht."

I could not agree more. The West is using the time honored tool of intentional inflation handle its debt with the theft of its citizens savings. In the meantime, the sheep focus on the fascinating shiny baht rising, falling, rising, falling . . .

[wayned]

I can remember when the dollar was 23 baht and also when it was over 56 baht (transferred a lot then), but if it keeps strengthening a lot of Companies will transfer there production to other countries, not good for the Thais.

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

Don't believe you can consider the AUD falling. It is 1.04 now and on 01/01/2012 it was 1.02

[Lancelot]

The worst I ever got was 33 Bt to the pound but a beer then was only 15 ..sign of the times

i remember when a Dollar bought 20 Baht. but then a huge big lobster was 250, taxi fare BKK-Pattaya was 250, bar fine was 40 and a working girl charged 300 (per day!).

And here I thought Naam was a 30 something young guy

[Naam]

The worst I ever got was 33 Bt to the pound but a beer then was only 15 ..sign of the times

i remember when a Dollar bought 20 Baht. but then a huge big lobster was 250, taxi fare BKK-Pattaya was 250, bar fine was 40 and a working girl charged 300 (per day!).

And here I thought Naam was a 30 something young guy

i was...................... then

[davejones]

"I see many posts rambling about a supposed strength of the Baht, but posters do not realize their flawed perspective.

The Baht doesn't move much, it's the USD correlated currencies that are currently tanking badly, some of them for different reasons.

But the essence of my message is: the problems emanate from the western currencies, not from the Thai Baht."

I could not agree more. The West is using the time honored tool of intentional inflation handle its debt with the theft of its citizens savings. In the meantime, the sheep focus on the fascinating shiny baht rising, falling, rising, falling . . .

So when you say "The West", you are excluding almost the whole of Europe, which is about half of "The West". Care to explain.

[mccw]

they are all playing the game of currency debasement..to make exports cheaper and keep workers in jobs

Not true at all. You're probably just repeating some nonsense you read somewhere. If not, explain and give some examples of how you came to your conclusion. Euro zone is still in recession, but their currencies is strengthening in leaps and bounds. According to you they are trying to devalue it. Laughable. Devaluing your currency makes imports expensive, and in many cases would completely destroy an economy, not save it. Back to Economics 101 for you.

The Euro has pull back a bit in relation to $ £ in the last months, but from 07 to present the tradjectory is down and all the same reasons exist for it to continue that path. The £€$¥ relativity to each other is just a question of level of printing coupled with sentiment. Sentiment for now has turned again UK only because focus has temporarily come off the Euro zone. Not long Germany will enter recession and focus goes back across the channel or over the pond as well if another "surprise" US contraction or debt ceiling debarcle.

[yoshiwara]

they are all playing the game of currency debasement..to make exports cheaper and keep workers in jobs

Not true at all. You're probably just repeating some nonsense you read somewhere. If not, explain and give some examples of how you came to your conclusion. Euro zone is still in recession, but their currencies is strengthening in leaps and bounds. According to you they are trying to devalue it. Laughable. Devaluing your currency makes imports expensive, and in many cases would completely destroy an economy, not save it. Back to Economics 101 for you.

The Euro has pull back a bit in relation to $ £ in the last months, but from 07 to present the tradjectory is down and all the same reasons exist for it to continue that path. The £€$¥ relativity to each other is just a question of level of printing coupled with sentiment. Sentiment for now has turned again UK only because focus has temporarily come off the Euro zone. Not long Germany will enter recession and focus goes back across the channel or over the pond as well if another "surprise" US contraction or debt ceiling debarcle.

No it isn't.

[mccw]

they are all playing the game of currency debasement..to make exports cheaper and keep workers in jobs

Not true at all. You're probably just repeating some nonsense you read somewhere. If not, explain and give some examples of how you came to your conclusion. Euro zone is still in recession, but their currencies is strengthening in leaps and bounds. According to you they are trying to devalue it. Laughable. Devaluing your currency makes imports expensive, and in many cases would completely destroy an economy, not save it. Back to Economics 101 for you.

The Euro has pull back a bit in relation to $ £ in the last months, but from 07 to present the tradjectory is down and all the same reasons exist for it to continue that path. The £¤$¥ relativity to each other is just a question of level of printing coupled with sentiment. Sentiment for now has turned again UK only because focus has temporarily come off the Euro zone. Not long Germany will enter recession and focus goes back across the channel or over the pond as well if another "surprise" US contraction or debt ceiling debarcle.

No it isn't.

Oooooh yes it is

Behind you , behind you !

Haha

[JimGant]

and a working girl charged 300 (per day!).

Ah, so now we know.....where the current administration got their incentive for their minimum wage...

"No longer will workers be treated as short time. Instead, we decree all workers will be treated at least as long time professionals, with the honorable Vietnam War wage scale of 300 baht."

(As I recall -- from conversation around the poker table, of course -- short time in those days was "one red baht" -- a very common standard for many services.)

[manarak]

Germany isn't going into a recession anytime soon:

http://www.datev.de/portal/ShowPage.do?pid=dpi&nid=145230

The baht strengthens against Euro because the Eurozone also has big problems.

Unemployment in Spain and France are still on the rise, Italy is far from growth.

The EUR is currently only backed by Germany.

The US are currently printing money and raising tax rates... it's only natural that the USD is tanking.

To summarize: I see the EUR is weakening, and the USD is weakening even more.

I'm not talking short term.

A gold ounce is worth 1200 EUR, it was at the same price one year ago, and at 1000 EUR in Jan 2011.

BTW, I just received new general conditions form my Swiss bank, and they are now making possible negative interest rates on positive balances...

[mccw]

Manarak ; I don't speak/ read German I'm afraid. But here is a couple of many reports on the previous quarter of result of GDP:

http://www.cnbc.com//id/100379575/German_Economy_Slows_Sharply_as_Crisis_Hits_Home

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2013/0115/breaking27.html

A 0.5% contraction in final quarter of last year, ending the trend of slowed growth since 2011. Another quarter of contraction technically equals recession. You think they will bounce back with a small .3 growth or what? Either way the trend is of global slow down and western contraction (see US "surprise" 4quater contraction also). If Germany enter recession the illusion that it is/ can carry the rest of the bankrupt nations will evaporate sparking fresh and worse crises yet in EU.

[manarak]

Manarak ; I don't speak/ read German I'm afraid. But here is a couple of many reports on the previous quarter of result of GDP:

http://www.cnbc.com/...risis_Hits_Home

http://www.irishtime...breaking27.html

A 0.5% contraction in final quarter of last year, ending the trend of slowed growth since 2011. Another quarter of contraction technically equals recession. You think they will bounce back with a small .3 growth or what? Either way the trend is of global slow down and western contraction (see US "surprise" 4quater contraction also). If Germany enter recession the illusion that it is/ can carry the rest of the bankrupt nations will evaporate sparking fresh and worse crises yet in EU.

German umemployment fell further and wages are set for a small increase in 2013, so there will be a mechanical effect on GDP.

Germany is not in bad shape yet. The bills are paid and unemployement is low.

The big difference is that Germany is an exporting nation, so it has a positive payments balance - this is what counts. GDP plus or minus by some base points is not so crucial.

Let's see what Q1 2013 brings...

Edited February 3, 2013 by manarak

[mccw]

Unemployment depends a lot on how the numbers are compiled. Wages going up a little while the cost of life's essentials rises a lot = real disposable incomes falling. But I agree a couple points of GDP is not the be all and end all BUT the perseptions and sentiment from that word "recession" can have much wider consequences than the actual points first under review did themselves. Q1 results will be interesting indeed.

If its avoided from the Q1 posting marginal gains I predict it coming with in 13 or early 14 ie the contraction sparking to the final unravelling / next crises on a larger scale than 07/08 because no policy tools left for delay; when it comes it will be the Big One.

[yoshiwara]

Unemployment depends a lot on how the numbers are compiled. Wages going up a little while the cost of life's essentials rises a lot = real disposable incomes falling. But I agree a couple points of GDP is not the be all and end all BUT the perseptions and sentiment from that word "recession" can have much wider consequences than the actual points first under review did themselves. Q1 results will be interesting indeed.

If its avoided from the Q1 posting marginal gains I predict it coming with in 13 or early 14 ie the contraction sparking to the final unravelling / next crises on a larger scale than 07/08 because no policy tools left for delay; when it comes it will be the Big One.

More crystal balls.

[Naam]

Unemployment depends a lot on how the numbers are compiled. Wages going up a little while the cost of life's essentials rises a lot = real disposable incomes falling. But I agree a couple points of GDP is not the be all and end all BUT the perseptions and sentiment from that word "recession" can have much wider consequences than the actual points first under review did themselves. Q1 results will be interesting indeed.

If its avoided from the Q1 posting marginal gains I predict it coming with in 13 or early 14 ie the contraction sparking to the final unravelling / next crises on a larger scale than 07/08 because no policy tools left for delay; when it comes it will be the Big One.

More crystal balls.

big ones?

[Bpuumike]

Unemployment depends a lot on how the numbers are compiled. Wages going up a little while the cost of life's essentials rises a lot = real disposable incomes falling. But I agree a couple points of GDP is not the be all and end all BUT the perseptions and sentiment from that word "recession" can have much wider consequences than the actual points first under review did themselves. Q1 results will be interesting indeed.

If its avoided from the Q1 posting marginal gains I predict it coming with in 13 or early 14 ie the contraction sparking to the final unravelling / next crises on a larger scale than 07/08 because no policy tools left for delay; when it comes it will be the Big One.

More crystal balls.

big ones?

My thoughts exactly. Western politicians don't have the cojones to confront their electorates with the truth (don't claim Merkel can't have them when Maggie Thatcher was always admired for hers). Their only objectives seem to get re-elected

[Nana Cowboy]

the dollar is a safe haven currency. the buck goes down when money goes into risk assets like stocks. when the stock market tanks the buck goes up. look at the financial crisis when stocks crashed and the buck went to 36 vs the baht. it's really quite simple.