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Thai Economy Soars In Q4 On Post-Flood Recovery


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Nice bit of good news for a change, especially from a source that is consistently hostile towards the government.

243 views and no negative or derisory comments.

Is TV slipping ??

Maybe Yingluck and co are doing something right.

OK, I'll have a go:

"Gross domestic product (GDP) soared 18.9 percent in the three months through December from the year-earlier period"

Doesn't this mean that 18.9% more of nothing, is still pretty much nothing? tongue.png

Precisely my thoughts.

In the first 11 months of 2012 Thailand run up a trade deficit of US$ 15.7 billion with December, 2012 giving a deficit of US$2.37 billion. That's about US$ 18.07 billion trade deficit over 2012.

http://www.mcot.net/...50ba0901d0002e0

On the other hand we have this which is based on data from the BoT

post-58-0-40136100-1361193534_thumb.png

So, tell me again, what was soaring. The amount of data which can't be correlated I think ermm.gif

If the thread was talking about the balance of payments you would be on topic. However it is about the total value of all goods and services produced over a specific time period GDP. I wonder if there are many on Thai Visa who realize just how off topic your post is. You might want to point out that the balance of payments is not consulted when adding up the GDP.

As I said before your only hope to derail a positive thread about the economy of Thailand is go way off topic which a discussion of the balance of payments is. Sorry but I won't participate.

Edited by chiangmaikelly
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OK, I'll have a go:

"Gross domestic product (GDP) soared 18.9 percent in the three months through December from the year-earlier period"

Doesn't this mean that 18.9% more of nothing, is still pretty much nothing? tongue.png

Precisely my thoughts.

In the first 11 months of 2012 Thailand run up a trade deficit of US$ 15.7 billion with December, 2012 giving a deficit of US$2.37 billion. That's about US$ 18.07 billion trade deficit over 2012.

http://www.mcot.net/...50ba0901d0002e0

On the other hand we have this which is based on data from the BoT

post-58-0-40136100-1361193534_thumb.png

So, tell me again, what was soaring. The amount of data which can't be correlated I think ermm.gif

If the thread was talking about the balance of payments you would be on topic. However it is about the total value of all goods and services produced over a specific time period GDP. I wonder if there are many on Thai Visa who realize just how off topic your post is. You might want to point out that the balance of payments is not consulted when adding up the GDP.

As I said before your only hope to derail a positive thread about the economy of Thailand is go way off topic which a discussion of the balance of payments is. Sorry but I won't participate.

You, my dear chap, are being insulting.

I'm trying to understand how a soaring economy relates to balance of trade and the figures on Import/Export. If you think that's totally besides the point as GDP is soaring (in Q4 related to previous Q4), I think you only look at good news to promote the 'all is rozy' point of view.

BTW thanks for not participating wai.gif

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You, my dear chap, are being insulting.

I'm trying to understand how a soaring economy relates to balance of trade and the figures on Import/Export. If you think that's totally besides the point as GDP is soaring (in Q4 related to previous Q4), I think you only look at good news to promote the 'all is rozy' point of view.

BTW thanks for not participating wai.gif

You might as well talk about the price of gold or the value of the pound. It has nothing to do with the topic. You will notice the balance of payments is not mentioned in the OP. The balance of payments is an interesting topic but it is not this topic. Does the price of rice or gold or oil effect the Thai economy? Sure. But they are not part of this topic. Economic growth as discussed in the OP refers to the GDP. The economy soaring in the OP is based on the GDP soaring. The balance of payments could to 90% exported and 10% imported but if the GDP was down 30% there would be a depression in Thailand. Get it?

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You, my dear chap, are being insulting.

I'm trying to understand how a soaring economy relates to balance of trade and the figures on Import/Export. If you think that's totally besides the point as GDP is soaring (in Q4 related to previous Q4), I think you only look at good news to promote the 'all is rozy' point of view.

BTW thanks for not participating wai.gif

You might as well talk about the price of gold or the value of the pound. It has nothing to do with the topic. You will notice the balance of payments is not mentioned in the OP. The balance of payments is an interesting topic but it is not this topic. Does the price of rice or gold or oil effect the Thai economy? Sure. But they are not part of this topic. Economic growth as discussed in the OP refers to the GDP. The economy soaring in the OP is based on the GDP soaring. The balance of payments could to 90% exported and 10% imported but if the GDP was down 30% there would be a depression in Thailand. Get it?

Thanks for the rozy glasses. Indeed with themI can only see the 'economy soaring' part. I'm totally relieved now and tonight before going to bed I'll go down on my knees and pray for the continued health of our benovalent government in general and our real PM specifically.

Again, thank you, oh wise guy wai.gif

Edited by rubl
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You, my dear chap, are being insulting.

I'm trying to understand how a soaring economy relates to balance of trade and the figures on Import/Export. If you think that's totally besides the point as GDP is soaring (in Q4 related to previous Q4), I think you only look at good news to promote the 'all is rozy' point of view.

BTW thanks for not participating wai.gif

You might as well talk about the price of gold or the value of the pound. It has nothing to do with the topic. You will notice the balance of payments is not mentioned in the OP. The balance of payments is an interesting topic but it is not this topic. Does the price of rice or gold or oil effect the Thai economy? Sure. But they are not part of this topic. Economic growth as discussed in the OP refers to the GDP. The economy soaring in the OP is based on the GDP soaring. The balance of payments could to 90% exported and 10% imported but if the GDP was down 30% there would be a depression in Thailand. Get it?

Thanks for the rozy glasses. Indeed with themI can only see the 'economy soaring' part. I'm totally relieved now and tonight before going to bed I'll go down on my knees and pray for the continued health of our benovalent government in general and our real PM specifically.

Again, thank you, oh wise guy wai.gif

If you can think of a better measure of the success or failure of an economy than GDP I am sure the economists of the world would welcome your input. But as of now GDP is the primary measure of the health of an economy.

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Like the World Bank

World Bank paints improved economic future for Thailand

BANGKOK, Dec 19 – The World Bank (WB) has adjusted Thailand’s economic growth this year from 4.5 per cent to 4.7 per cent and po sitively forecast a 5 per cent expansion next year, according to a senior economist.

Kirida Bhaopichitr, a WB senior economist for East Asia and Pacific, said increased household consumption and investment after last year’s massive floods in Thailand, the government’s stimulation of consumer purchases and the successive inflow of foreign funds have contributed to the economic growth despite the country’s declining exports from 9.5 per cent last year to only 3 per cent this year due to the global economic slowdown and crisis in Europe and the US.

Thailand’s economic growth next year is predicted at 5 per cent thanks to revitalisation in the economic sector and the global economy, she said, adding that Thailand’s exports should expand to 5.5 per cent next year while investments in the private and public sections should increase by 8 per cent and 15 per cent respectively

http://www.pattayama...-thailand-19611

Not only easy to please, but somewhat off as well. The OP has

The NESDB forecasts economic growth of 4.5-5.0 percent for 2013, after an expansion of 6.4 percent in 2012.

So just exactly what part of this statement

"Thailand’s economic growth next year is predicted at 5 per cent thanks to revitalisation in the economic sector and the global economy"

is off compared to the NESDB statement of 4.5 - 5 % economic growth for 2013?

You're so determined to find something bad about the figures that you leap into print before engaging brain - slow down and read.

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Like the World Bank

World Bank paints improved economic future for Thailand

BANGKOK, Dec 19 – The World Bank (WB) has adjusted Thailand’s economic growth this year from 4.5 per cent to 4.7 per cent and po sitively forecast a 5 per cent expansion next year, according to a senior economist.

Kirida Bhaopichitr, a WB senior economist for East Asia and Pacific, said increased household consumption and investment after last year’s massive floods in Thailand, the government’s stimulation of consumer purchases and the successive inflow of foreign funds have contributed to the economic growth despite the country’s declining exports from 9.5 per cent last year to only 3 per cent this year due to the global economic slowdown and crisis in Europe and the US.

Thailand’s economic growth next year is predicted at 5 per cent thanks to revitalisation in the economic sector and the global economy, she said, adding that Thailand’s exports should expand to 5.5 per cent next year while investments in the private and public sections should increase by 8 per cent and 15 per cent respectively

http://www.pattayama...-thailand-19611

Not only easy to please, but somewhat off as well. The OP has

The NESDB forecasts economic growth of 4.5-5.0 percent for 2013, after an expansion of 6.4 percent in 2012.

So just exactly what part of this statement

"Thailand’s economic growth next year is predicted at 5 per cent thanks to revitalisation in the economic sector and the global economy"

is off compared to the NESDB statement of 4.5 - 5 % economic growth for 2013?

You're so determined to find something bad about the figures that you leap into print before engaging brain - slow down and read.

Oh boy, I know dogs normally don't use glasses, but would you like to borrow mine for a wee moment?

You're totally correct in assuming that WB's 5% for this year is close enough to NESDB's 4.5 - 5.0%. I completely agree that at the begin of a year such figures and ranges are within acceptable, sophistigated scientific guestimates

What you seem to have missed though is that the WB article is from December last year. It's mention of "4.5 - 4.7% growth this year" reflects on 2012. The NESDB statement has 6.4% growth in 2012.

Now have one more post-58-0-56980400-1361209303_thumb.jpeg and hop along

Edited by rubl
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Yes, manufacturing is way up. Statistical manufacturing that is.

The moon is made of green cheese. Do you believe that? It has the same level of credibility of your statement above with no evidence.

The fact is, as presented in the OP, "Gross domestic product (GDP) soared 18.9 percent in the three months through December from the year-earlier period according to the government's National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB)." If you have any information to the contrary present it. If not the moon is made of green cheese.

Edited by chiangmaikelly
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Not only easy to please, but somewhat off as well. The OP has

The NESDB forecasts economic growth of 4.5-5.0 percent for 2013, after an expansion of 6.4 percent in 2012.

So just exactly what part of this statement

"Thailand’s economic growth next year is predicted at 5 per cent thanks to revitalisation in the economic sector and the global economy"

is off compared to the NESDB statement of 4.5 - 5 % economic growth for 2013?

You're so determined to find something bad about the figures that you leap into print before engaging brain - slow down and read.

Oh boy, I know dogs normally don't use glasses, but would you like to borrow mine for a wee moment?

You're totally correct in assuming that WB's 5% for this year is close enough to NESDB's 4.5 - 5.0%. I completely agree that at the begin of a year such figures and ranges are within acceptable, sophistigated scientific guestimates

What you seem to have missed though is that the WB article is from December last year. It's mention of "4.5 - 4.7% growth this year" reflects on 2012. The NESDB statement has 6.4% growth in 2012.

Now have one more post-58-0-56980400-1361209303_thumb.jpeg and hop along

OK then tell me 2 things about the NESDB statement

1. What is expansion? Is it growth of GDP and if so is it averaged out over the 4 quarters?

2. If so tell me how the NESDB got a figure of 6.4% growth in 2012 (if they did I suspect the Nation has done the usual) based on this graph from the NESDB for GDP

thailand-gdp-growth.png?s=thg+pqq

To me the average for the 4 quarters of 2012 is 4.625%.

But enough of such frippery, back to your assertion that:

"What you seem to have missed though is that the WB article is from December last year. It's mention of "4.5 - 4.7% growth this year" reflects on 2012."

which seems near enough 4.625% for me

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Yes, manufacturing is way up. Statistical manufacturing that is.

The moon is made of green cheese. Do you believe that? It has the same level of credibility of your statement above with no evidence.

The fact is, as presented in the OP, "Gross domestic product (GDP) soared 18.9 percent in the three months through December from the year-earlier period according to the government's National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB)." If you have any information to the contrary present it. If not the moon is made of green cheese.

Evidently you are a sucker for propaganda.

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Yes, manufacturing is way up. Statistical manufacturing that is.

The moon is made of green cheese. Do you believe that? It has the same level of credibility of your statement above with no evidence.

The fact is, as presented in the OP, "Gross domestic product (GDP) soared 18.9 percent in the three months through December from the year-earlier period according to the government's National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB)." If you have any information to the contrary present it. If not the moon is made of green cheese.

Evidently you are a sucker for propaganda.

If you have any facts post them. Thai GDP numbers are accepted by all the financial institutions in the world who determine interest rates and currency prices. If you know something they don't post it.

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I think PM-Yingluck & her PTP-led coalition-government are to be congratulated, for having arranged the 2011-floods, in order to make the country's 2012 economic-performance appear so good. rolleyes.gif

Or was this idea Skyped from the UAE ? I don't think we'll ever know ! wink.png

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Yes, manufacturing is way up. Statistical manufacturing that is.

The moon is made of green cheese. Do you believe that? It has the same level of credibility of your statement above with no evidence.

The fact is, as presented in the OP, "Gross domestic product (GDP) soared 18.9 percent in the three months through December from the year-earlier period according to the government's National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB)." If you have any information to the contrary present it. If not the moon is made of green cheese.

Evidently you are a sucker for propaganda.

If you have any facts post them. Thai GDP numbers are accepted by all the financial institutions in the world who determine interest rates and currency prices. If you know something they don't post it.

So you are saying that only facts are generated by the Thai government. You are incredibly and astonishingly naive. Most everything that is posted/presented by EVERYTHING from the Thai government is propaganda to appear competent to the outside world when they are SO FAR from relevant. You can demand facts all you want but you are taking propaganda and passing it off as factual and you have no clue of it's authenticity. That is why I say you are naive, foolish at the least, and are blind to how the government operates here and abroad. You can pound away on your keyboard all day on how SOLID the facts are in your favor, but in the real world that most observers view what happens with this country, understand a much different reality. Your reality is fantasy.

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Evidently you are a sucker for propaganda.

If you have any facts post them. Thai GDP numbers are accepted by all the financial institutions in the world who determine interest rates and currency prices. If you know something they don't post it.

So you are saying that only facts are generated by the Thai government. You are incredibly and astonishingly naive. Most everything that is posted/presented by EVERYTHING from the Thai government is propaganda to appear competent to the outside world when they are SO FAR from relevant. You can demand facts all you want but you are taking propaganda and passing it off as factual and you have no clue of it's authenticity. That is why I say you are naive, foolish at the least, and are blind to how the government operates here and abroad. You can pound away on your keyboard all day on how SOLID the facts are in your favor, but in the real world that most observers view what happens with this country, understand a much different reality. Your reality is fantasy.

Thailand’s credit rating upheld by S&P (Jan 24, 2013)

The credit rating is a financial indicator to potential investors of debt securities such as bonds. These are assigned by credit rating agencies such as Moody's, Standard & Poor's, and Fitch Ratings to have letter designations.

US credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) maintained Thailand’s existing credit rating at BBB+ and forecasted a stable outlook for the country going forward.

Sorry Markaew, Fitch, Moody's and S&P rate each country not you. You are an eccentric person; one with bizarre ideas.. Fitch, Moodys and S&P are not. They accept the Data in the OP.

You might want to take a look at ,

http://www.guardian....moodys-standard

How credit rating agencies rate countries for some basic information in understanding Thailand's financial position.

Oh and I doubt if debating the accuracy of credit rating agencies accepted by every bank, country and economist in the world is on topic.

Edited by chiangmaikelly
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Oh and I doubt if debating the accuracy of credit rating agencies accepted by every bank, country and economist in the world is on topic.

Bravo! I really like open-minded discussions where any data not liked is deemed off topic.

Just to be sure, all together now: Thailand is doing fine biggrin.png

Edited by rubl
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GDP soured 18.9% in the last 12 months, "the first 3 months through December"who in their right minds would believe this?

It must be the highest growth rate ever in world history.

Edited by MAJIC
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Oh and I doubt if debating the accuracy of credit rating agencies accepted by every bank, country and economist in the world is on topic.

Bravo! I really like open-minded discussions where any data not liked is deemed off topic.

Just to be sure, all together now: Thailand is doing fine biggrin.png

I am not sure your of your personal situation in terms of who you meet etc, but working here, you speak to pretty much any high level Thai or Expat and the will all say exactly the same thing, and that is the Thai Economy is going very strongly.

I cannot honestly believe you are trying to dispute these facts that are verified or accepted by companies like Moody's and S&P, where banks/Governments/investors the world over rely on for investment decisions. Even Korn said the economy was going very well.

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Could it be that the title of this thing gives a clue, 'After the floods'.

Would seem that during and immediatly after the flooding things dropped considerably as many industries and tourism were hit and now things are getting back to where they were before.

There is also the new car thing which is an artificial boost to sales, 300b wage which gives a bit more spending power to some.

These are temporary things and the real impact on the economy has yet to be seen.

There is also the increasing debt which is not a good thing.

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GDP soured 18.9% in the last 12 months, "the first 3 months through December"who in their right minds would believe this?

It must be the highest growth rate ever in world history.

Thailand experienced the world's highest growth rate from 1985 to 1995. Hope that helps with your history.

http://www.economywatch.com/world_economy/thailand/

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Oh and I doubt if debating the accuracy of credit rating agencies accepted by every bank, country and economist in the world is on topic.

Bravo! I really like open-minded discussions where any data not liked is deemed off topic.

Just to be sure, all together now: Thailand is doing fine biggrin.png

Any chance of you answering my post 40 without having a hissy fit over data. You said I was wrong and I've provided backup that I think proves otherwise - any chance of a reply or is it the usual case of keeping quiet and hope people forget?

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Oh and I doubt if debating the accuracy of credit rating agencies accepted by every bank, country and economist in the world is on topic.

Bravo! I really like open-minded discussions where any data not liked is deemed off topic.

Just to be sure, all together now: Thailand is doing fine biggrin.png

You can debate anything. However when the three credit rating agencies who all use different methods arrive at the same conclusion and those credit rating agencies are the backbone of the worlds financial rating system I suggest they be accepted as accurate.

If you don't like the worlds financial rating system good for you. I think that you should start a topic about that. You may not think the pound is the currency of GB but I assure you that Fitch and Moody's and S&P do. If you want to debate that go ahead but I think you should start another thread to debate things that the rest of the world accepts as fact (for example the conclusions of the three major credit rating agencies).

Edited by chiangmaikelly
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Nice bit of good news for a change, especially from a source that is consistently hostile towards the government.

243 views and no negative or derisory comments.

Is TV slipping ??

Maybe Yingluck and co are doing something right.

OK, I'll have a go:

"Gross domestic product (GDP) soared 18.9 percent in the three months through December from the year-earlier period"

Doesn't this mean that 18.9% more of nothing, is still pretty much nothing? tongue.png

Precisely my thoughts.

In the first 11 months of 2012 Thailand run up a trade deficit of US$ 15.7 billion with December, 2012 giving a deficit of US$2.37 billion. That's about US$ 18.07 billion trade deficit over 2012.

http://www.mcot.net/...50ba0901d0002e0

On the other hand we have this which is based on data from the BoT

post-58-0-40136100-1361193534_thumb.png

So, tell me again, what was soaring. The amount of data which can't be correlated I think ermm.gif

Could it be that the Bank of Thailand chart is currency balance?

Edited by ExpatOilWorker
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Oh and I doubt if debating the accuracy of credit rating agencies accepted by every bank, country and economist in the world is on topic.

Bravo! I really like open-minded discussions where any data not liked is deemed off topic.

Just to be sure, all together now: Thailand is doing fine biggrin.png

I am not sure your of your personal situation in terms of who you meet etc, but working here, you speak to pretty much any high level Thai or Expat and the will all say exactly the same thing, and that is the Thai Economy is going very strongly.

I cannot honestly believe you are trying to dispute these facts that are verified or accepted by companies like Moody's and S&P, where banks/Governments/investors the world over rely on for investment decisions. Even Korn said the economy was going very well.

You presume correctly, I work here. That translates in working with normal Thai, number of expat's has minimized over the years, at least in the company I work for.

Now if high level Thai and expats all say the economy is booming and all other Thai seem to struggle to make ends meet, I think there's something wrong. The booming economy doesn't translate in spreading of wealth. IMHO

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OK then tell me 2 things about the NESDB statement

1. What is expansion? Is it growth of GDP and if so is it averaged out over the 4 quarters?

2. If so tell me how the NESDB got a figure of 6.4% growth in 2012 (if they did I suspect the Nation has done the usual) based on this graph from the NESDB for GDP

thailand-gdp-growth.png?s=thg+pqq

To me the average for the 4 quarters of 2012 is 4.625%.

But enough of such frippery, back to your assertion that:

"What you seem to have missed though is that the WB article is from December last year. It's mention of "4.5 - 4.7% growth this year" reflects on 2012."

which seems near enough 4.625% for me

My dear mutt, the OP is on data provided by NESDB. It tells about the soaring of the economy which translates into GDP rise.

The WB said 4.5 - 5%, NESDB said 6.4% in 2012. You just seem to confirm that NESDB was a wee bit off, or maybe the 6.4% should be 4.6%.

If I hadn't indicated this discrepancy I doubt anyone here would have noticed. So don't go scientific on me all of a sudden. Furthermore I will certainly not tell you how NESDB gets to it's figures. Ask them if you want.

Oh as to Question1, since you seem so very interested, but lack some understanding. Economical growth is seen as reflected in GDP growth and deemed identical, at least in the OP. The average is the yearly growth (4.5 - 5.0%), the amazing 18.9% growth in Q4 2012 is in relation to Q4 2011 when nothing really happened.

Hope all this helps you in getting some better understanding of economical figures and how they can be made more interesting. Any questions left to be asked others, I had enough for now. Class dismissed wink.png

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Oh and I doubt if debating the accuracy of credit rating agencies accepted by every bank, country and economist in the world is on topic.

Bravo! I really like open-minded discussions where any data not liked is deemed off topic.

Just to be sure, all together now: Thailand is doing fine biggrin.png

I am not sure your of your personal situation in terms of who you meet etc, but working here, you speak to pretty much any high level Thai or Expat and the will all say exactly the same thing, and that is the Thai Economy is going very strongly.

I cannot honestly believe you are trying to dispute these facts that are verified or accepted by companies like Moody's and S&P, where banks/Governments/investors the world over rely on for investment decisions. Even Korn said the economy was going very well.

You presume correctly, I work here. That translates in working with normal Thai, number of expat's has minimized over the years, at least in the company I work for.

Now if high level Thai and expats all say the economy is booming and all other Thai seem to struggle to make ends meet, I think there's something wrong. The booming economy doesn't translate in spreading of wealth. IMHO

What is the current rate of unemployment in Thailand? Full employment is the way capitalistic countries spread the wealth. If you think Thais are not buying more homes and cars and land you have not looked. Large corporations are not getting small home loans or small car loans or small land loans.

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Did the economy grew 18.9% in Q4 2012 in relation to Q4 2011? Yes it did.biggrin.png

All the dumb stuff aside the economy still grew 18.9% in Q4 2012 in relation to Q4 2011. Yes it did.biggrin.png

That is what the OP said and that is the truth.

I know the photo below is the way some posters think we all should feel but it is not the truth. The truth is the Thai economy grew 18.9% in Q4 2012 in relation to Q4 2011.

post-73727-0-81733900-1361339385_thumb.j

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I am not sure your of your personal situation in terms of who you meet etc, but working here, you speak to pretty much any high level Thai or Expat and the will all say exactly the same thing, and that is the Thai Economy is going very strongly.

I cannot honestly believe you are trying to dispute these facts that are verified or accepted by companies like Moody's and S&P, where banks/Governments/investors the world over rely on for investment decisions. Even Korn said the economy was going very well.

You presume correctly, I work here. That translates in working with normal Thai, number of expat's has minimized over the years, at least in the company I work for.

Now if high level Thai and expats all say the economy is booming and all other Thai seem to struggle to make ends meet, I think there's something wrong. The booming economy doesn't translate in spreading of wealth. IMHO

What is the current rate of unemployment in Thailand? Full employment is the way capitalistic countries spread the wealth. If you think Thais are not buying more homes and cars and land you have not looked. Large corporations are not getting small home loans or small car loans or small land loans.

The official rate of unemployment is less than 1%, has been so for many years. Productivity level can be on the same level.

Thai have been buying more homes, more cars. Didn't you notice the government policies on that? First defaults also occurring. The government already mentioned to look into helping those who have problems repaying the loans they got to buy those first homes and cars.

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Did the economy grew 18.9% in Q4 2012 in relation to Q4 2011? Yes it did.biggrin.png

All the dumb stuff aside the economy still grew 18.9% in Q4 2012 in relation to Q4 2011. Yes it did.biggrin.png

That is what the OP said and that is the truth.

I know the photo below is the way some posters think we all should feel but it is not the truth. The truth is the Thai economy grew 18.9% in Q4 2012 in relation to Q4 2011.

Q4 2011 was 10.5% down from Q3 2011. Q4 2012 was up 3.6% from Q3 2012.

Honda happy, best car selling year in Thailand ever. Bangkok traffic slows to a crawl, but at least people can sit in their nice new car with airco on and sound machine booming rolleyes.gif

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