North Korea Moves Missile As World Watches

[wellred]

[EyesWideOpen]

I know this sounds crazy. But, I think if NK starts something, China will jump in to help stop them.

I think you are correct. A tacit agreement will be made with China that the South an USa do not approach any buffer zone the Chinese set for its border. China would invade and secure a large swath of North Korean territory. It would most likely annex a large part of North Korea.

Interesting concept. I find it fascinating that China is so quiet on this seemingly important issue to them. Also I suspect they are carefully watching how America is planning for a war in Asia...... :-) Edited April 7, 2013 by EyesWideOpen

[keemapoot]

I know this sounds crazy. But, I think if NK starts something, China will jump in to help stop them.

I think you are correct. A tacit agreement will be made with China that the South an USa do not approach any buffer zone the Chinese set for its border. China would invade and secure a large swath of North Korean territory. It would most likely annex a large part of North Korea.

Interesting concept. I find it fascinating that China is so quiet on this seemingly important issue to them. Also I suspect they are carefully watching how America is planning for a war in Asia...... :-)

Perhaps most disconcerting to China is not this particular round of NK antics and counter antics by the U.S., but rather, that the U.S. is turning its military attention to the area, and a new military re-engagement and military presence. All of this portends badly for Beijing I suspect given the other regional conflicts, South China Sea, etc., and I'm sure Beijing does not welcome a resurgent US influence in the region.

[transam]

missile.jpg

No sir, the weapon is on the table.

But they are shooting blanks.

Are the binoculars the right way around. ?...................

[exeter]

North Korea can always justify its military spending by pointing to the threats from outside its borders, we need to be strong to defend ourselves look at the US and South Korea having military games etc etc and the NK public except that, no choice, we will eat less.

The colateral damage whether hostilities break out or not is the effect on the worlds stock markets, all going down with the uncertainty, NK has cost ordinary people a fortune on paper with its recent acts, perhaps they see tht as victory, stock markets will come back in the long term, will they have noticed something else they can manipulate?

It would be in everyones interests to deal with this tinpot outfit and remove them, whoever is pulling the strings, can you think of worse lot to run a country?

Would an attack by this country be their last throw of the dice, would they take that chance?

I would like to return to a peaceful solution but I fear that it would only be a temporary solution until the next time, the next time they might have bigger bombs and missilies and thats the problem someone has to deal with.

[draftvader]

I think we'll know more by Wednesday. This is the late Kim Jong-Il's birthday and his son has been suggesting this would be a fitting time to do something demonstrative. The reaction? God knows, but it won't be pretty for the people of North Korea, either way, in the short-term....sadly

[baboon]

I think we'll know more by Wednesday. This is the late Kim Jong-Il's birthday and his son has been suggesting this would be a fitting time to do something demonstrative. The reaction? God knows, but it won't be pretty for the people of North Korea, either way, in the short-term....sadly

I think you will find the late Kim Jong Il's birthday is the sixteenth of February.

[SteeleJoe]

I think we'll know more by Wednesday. This is the late Kim Jong-Il's birthday and his son has been suggesting this would be a fitting time to do something demonstrative. The reaction? God knows, but it won't be pretty for the people of North Korea, either way, in the short-term....sadly

I think you will find the late Kim Jong Il's birthday is the sixteenth of February.

Maybe he meant the birthday of the original hero/villain whom each successive Kim has to try to live up to: Kim Il-sung was born in April.

Sent from my iPad using ThaiVisa ap

[baboon]

I think we'll know more by Wednesday. This is the late Kim Jong-Il's birthday and his son has been suggesting this would be a fitting time to do something demonstrative. The reaction? God knows, but it won't be pretty for the people of North Korea, either way, in the short-term....sadly

I think you will find the late Kim Jong Il's birthday is the sixteenth of February.

Maybe he meant the birthday of the original hero/villain whom each successive Kim has to try to live up to: Kim Il-sung was born in April.

Sent from my iPad using ThaiVisa ap

April the fifteenth, 1912, the day the Titanic sank. Wednesday is April the tenth.

[Publicus]

The following site has an extremely good write-up on the military scene in the Koreas.

Some of our self professed experts might bone up on its contents.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

...from the article...

Conclusion

The combination of North Korea’s long economic decline and enhanced US and South Korean military capabilities has diminshed the threat of a North Korean invasion of South Korea. Nonetheless, North Korea retains the ability to inflict heavy casualties and collateral damage, largely through the use of massed artillery. In effect, Pyongyang has more of a threat to devastate Seoul than to seize and hold it. North Korea’s conventional threat is also sufficient to make an allied pre-emptive invasion to overthrow the North Korean regime a highly unattractive option. In theory, US forces could carry out pre-emptive attacks to destroy known North Korean nuclear facilities and missile emplacements, but such attacks could provoke North Korean retaliation and trigger a general conflict.

http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-dossiers/north-korean-dossier/north-koreas-weapons-programmes-a-net-asses/the-conventional-military-balance-on-the-kore/

This link sort of fills in the details of your excellent summary paragraph:

http://www.businessinsider.com/why-no-one-in-korea-wants-war-2013-4

One revealing detail is that Prez Clinton in 1994, when Kim Jong Il was making his first commotion about going nuclear, seriously wanted to make a pre-emptive military strike, beginning with decapitation of Kim and all of his leadership. Although the Joint Chiefs of Staff talked Clinton out of it, and with the benefit of hindsight, it might well have been a better idea then than it could be now - or, more importantly, yet into the future when N Korea will be extensively nuclear capable.

[F430murci]

I think we'll know more by Wednesday. This is the late Kim Jong-Il's birthday and his son has been suggesting this would be a fitting time to do something demonstrative. The reaction? God knows, but it won't be pretty for the people of North Korea, either way, in the short-term....sadly

I think you will find the late Kim Jong Il's birthday is the sixteenth of February.

Maybe he meant the birthday of the original hero/villain whom each successive Kim has to try to live up to: Kim Il-sung was born in April.

Sent from my iPad using ThaiVisa ap

April the fifteenth, 1912, the day the Titanic sank. Wednesday is April the tenth.

Maybe some truth to the 10th date . . .

http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/07/world/asia/koreas-tensions/index.html?c=weekend-homepage-t&page=1

[briboy]

the boy has had a small win with the US announcing that they have cancelled the test firing of a missile over the peinsular, that will give him sprukking rites to his people no dought......

[keemapoot]

The drums of war seem to be beating a bit louder each day:

Politicians and pundits painted a pretty bleak picture of the situation in North Korea on the Sunday talk-show circuit, with South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham predicting a "major war" breaking out if Kim Jong Un attacks South Korea.

"The North Koreans need to understand if they attack an American interest or an ally of this country, they're going to pay a heavy price," Graham said on NBC's "Meet The Press" on Sunday. "I could see a major war happening if the North Koreans overplay their hand this time, because the public in South Korea, the United States, and I think the whole region, is fed up with this guy."

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/lookout/north-korea-kim-jong-un-war-201715650.html

Edited April 7, 2013 by keemapoot

[F430murci]

the boy has had a small win with the US announcing that they have cancelled the test firing of a missile over the peinsular, that will give him sprukking rites to his people no dought......

I agree. Looks like US is bending over backwards not escalate or who knows what is going on behind the scenes.

[Publicus]

The land-based PATRIOT system will soon be joined by U.S. ships en route to the area, the USS John McCain and the USS Decatur. Both are Aegis-class warships, meaning they're capable of intercepting and destroying ballistic missiles "above the atmosphere during the midcourse phase of a hostile ballistic missile's flight."

The holistic anti-North Korean missile system will also be bolstered soon by the deployment of another missile defense system to Guam, the Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD).

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-us-allies-could-shoot-203912481.html

And that's just what we're allowed to know... I imagine there is quiet a fireworks display ready in case NK pulls any stunt.

Interestingly no mention of any of the carriers groups, dont suppose one or 2 will be too far away though.

No one should expect to see any of the U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups in this situation. No CSG is anywhere near the Korean peninsula and none of us, especially Kim and his gang want to see even one CSG on the scene. Pyongyang knows there aren't any CSG's as such and Prez Obama wants Kim to know we haven't even begun to mobilize even one CSG in the present situation specifically.

If even one CSG appears on the scene, we and Kim will know the U.S. has gone to DEFCON 2, which means the next step would be war. (Defense Condition, scaled 5 as normal, 1 as war.) We've seen the B-2 nuclear capable bombers in a flyby and the B-52's too, along with the U.S..' most advanced fighter the Raptor F-22. But there are no signs of a CSG and we want it that way. Why?

The U.S. is keeping the carrier strike groups away because the N Koreans know well from the 1976 Poplar Tree Incident in the DMZ, in which two U.S. soldiers were killed in a scuffle with N Korean troops, that the U.S. Korean Military Command had been put at DEFCON 3 by Prez Ford at the strong urging of Henry Kissinger.

In August 1976, two Americans were killed while supervising a work party at Panmunjom in the DMZ. The incident involved a detachment of U.S. soldiers who were trimming a poplar tree in the joint security area to improve visibility between checkpoints, when North Korean troops attacked them.

SECSTATE Henry Kissinger went bananas in Washington, recalling Prez Ford to Washington from the Republican National Convention - Kissinger wanted a strongly forceful response to the incident. So Prez Ford decided the immediate response should be to escalate the readiness of U.S. forces in Korea (only) to DEFCON 3. DEFCON 3 means an above normal readiness, i.e., to mobilize to the point of attacking within 15 minutes after the order is given by the president.

Kissinger already was furious at the N Koreans for a number of ongoing reasons too myriad to discuss here. An illustration of the K's fury is his reaction to a network TV analyst saying that war between N Korea and the United States, over this incident especially, was "inconceivable." When K heard of this during a press conference, he exploded. "The President will hit the ceiling when he hears that, because I told him we would be discussing possible military actions and that is what the President wants."

Prez Ford authorized a war plan and the Joint Chiefs of Staff organized an Order of Battle which sent successive groups of B-52s and other warplanes to fly on a vector directly toward Pyongyang, but to stop at the N Korean border to drop radar bombs (low level radiation). Simultaneously, the aircraft carrier battle group Midway arrived off the Korean peninsula from its home base in Japan, launching successive, rotating, groups of fighters to also fly on a vector toward Pyongyang, but to veer off at the N Korean border, again without crossing it.

Meanwhile, U.S. and Korean soldiers re-entered the DMZ to cut the poplar tree to size, reducing it to a bare pole 6 meters high.

The next day, at Panmunjon, a high representative of Kim Il Song delivered the following letter from Kim himself: "It is regrettable that an incident occurred. I propose that an effort must be made so that such incidents may not recur." Kissinger was initially taken aback at the unexpectedly mild response from Kim, but accepted that he had made his point that any such actions on the part of an enemy must be dealt with immediately and with force.

U.S. forces remained at DEFCON 3 for a month until a new agreement pertaining to the DMZ was negotiated and signed.

The aircraft carrier now based in Japan, the George Washington, remains at its home port of Yokousa while the crew enjoys shore leave. The carrier Constellation cruises alone in the Pacific, as do the carriers Vinson and Reagan, without accompanying strike group warships. So far, so good.

Obama sent the bombers only on a flyby over the Korean peninsula and waters, same as Prez Ford did on Kissinger's urging. However, given that the N Korean gang and their leader Kim Jong Un know what it would mean to see both U.S. bombers together with one or more aircraft carrier strike groups, we all can rest easy for the time being.

Edited April 8, 2013 by Publicus

[F430murci]

The land-based PATRIOT system will soon be joined by U.S. ships [/size]en route to the area, the USS John McCain and the USS Decatur. Both are [/size]Aegis-class warships, meaning they're capable of intercepting and destroying ballistic missiles "above the atmosphere during the midcourse phase of a hostile ballistic missile's flight."[/size]

The holistic anti-North Korean missile system will also be bolstered soon by the deployment of another missile defense system to Guam, the Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD).

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-us-allies-could-shoot-203912481.html

And that's just what we're allowed to know... I imagine there is quiet a fireworks display ready in case NK pulls any stunt.

Interestingly no mention of any of the carriers groups, dont suppose one or 2 will be too far away though.

No one should expect to see any of the U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups in this situation. No CSG is anywhere near the Korean peninsula and none of us, especially Kim and his gang want to see even one CSG on the scene. Pyongyang knows there aren't any CSG's as such and Prez Obama wants Kim to know we haven't even begun to mobilize even one CSG in the present situation specifically.

If even one CSG appears on the scene, we and Kim will know the U.S. has gone to DEFCON 2, which means the next step would be war. (Defense Condition, scaled 5 as normal, 1 as war.) We've seen the B-2 nuclear capable bombers in a flyby and the B-52's too, along with the U.S..' most advanced fighter the Raptor F-22. But there are no signs of a CSG and we want it that way. Why?

The U.S. is keeping the carrier strike groups away because the N Koreans know well from the 1976 Poplar Tree Incident in the DMZ, in which two U.S. soldiers were killed in a scuffle with N Korean troops, that the U.S. Korean Military Command had been put at DEFCON 3 by Prez Ford at the strong urging of Henry Kissinger.

In August 1976, two Americans were killed while supervising a work party at Panmunjom in the DMZ. The incident involved a detachment of U.S. soldiers who were trimming a poplar tree in the joint security area to improve visibility between checkpoints, when North Korean troops attacked them.

SECSTATE Henry Kissinger went bananas in Washington, recalling Prez Ford to Washington from the Republican National Convention - Kissinger wanted a strongly forceful response to the incident. So Prez Ford decided the immediate response should be to escalate the readiness of U.S. forces in Korea (only) to DEFCON 3. DEFCON 3 means an above normal readiness

, i.e., to mobilize to the point of attacking within 15 minutes after the order is given by the president.

Kissinger already was furious at the N Koreans for a number of ongoing reasons too myriad to discuss here. An illustration of the K's fury is his reaction to a network TV analyst saying that war between N Korea and the United States, over this incident especially, was "inconceivable." When K heard of this during a press conference, he exploded. "The President will hit the ceiling when he hears that, because I told him we would be discussing possible military actions and that is what the President wants."

Prez Ford authorized a war plan and the Joint Chiefs of Staff organized an Order of Battle which sent successive groups of B-52s and other warplanes to fly on a vector directly toward Pyongyang, but to stop at the N Korean border to drop radar bombs (low level radiation). Simultaneously, the aircraft carrier battle group Midway arrived off the Korean peninsula from its home base in Japan, launching successive, rotating, groups of fighters to also fly on a vector toward Pyongyang, but to veer off at the N Korean border, again without crossing it.

Meanwhile, U.S. and Korean soldiers re-entered the DMZ to cut the poplar tree to size, reducing it to a bare pole 6 meters high.

The next day, at Panmunjon, a high representative of Kim Il Song delivered the following letter from Kim himself:"It is regrettable that an incident occurred. I propose that an effort must be made so that such incidents may not recur." Kissinger was initially taken aback at the unexpectedly mild response from Kim, but accepted that he had made his point that any such actions on the part of an enemy must be dealt with immediately and with force.

U.S. forces remained at DEFCON 3 for a month until a new agreement pertaining to the DMZ was negotiated and signed.

The aircraft carrier now based in Japan, the George Washington, remains at its home port of Yokousa while the crew enjoys shore leave. The carrier Constellation cruises alone in the Pacific, as do the carriers Vinson and Reagan, without accompanying strike group warships. So far, so good.

Obama sent the bombers only on a flyby over the Korean peninsula and waters, same as Prez Ford did on Kissinger's urging. However, given that the N Korean gang and their leader Kim Jong Un know what it would mean to see both U.S. bombers together with one or more aircraft carrier strike groups, we all can rest easy for the time being.

I have curious as well. Perhaps we have sufficient land bases n close proximity where carriers are not needed. The B2, 52s, and 22s are much better at taking out ground targets than carrier based super hornets, EA 18s and etc. SK has f15s and 16s and may also have its own PAK FAs, 35s or 22s. Edited April 8, 2013 by F430murci

[webfact]

UPDATE:
Seoul believes Kim may test a missile this week
By K.J. Kwon, CNN

Seoul, South Korea (CNN) -- South Korea's government said Sunday it believes North Korea may test a missile around April 10, citing as an indicator Pyongyang's push for workers to leave the Kaesong Industrial Complex by then.

Seoul "is on military readiness posture," said South Korea's Blue House spokeswoman Kim Haeng in a briefing.

Full story: http://edition.cnn.com/2013/04/07/world/asia/north-korea-missile-test-plans/index.html

-- CNN 2013-04-08

[Payboy]

Seriously? I mean seriousry?

[briboy]

what now, i suppose they have to be seen to do something to save face, also to show NK pleople that they are in control, of what i have no idea, but we can just hope that common sence prevails, that is if there is any such thing in the country

[Publicus]

The CNN story is necessarily brief with only a few more lines in it than appear above. But it's this line from the president's national security advisor that scares me:

"If limited war is to break out, North Korea should bare in mind that it will receive damages many times more." (I'm sure he means "bear".)

I read the statement to say Seoul is expecting a missile strike in the South that will have some explosive warhead on it, probably not a nuclear warhead, but then any warhead would be bad news. If this is the case, then it sounds like the Guns of August again as someone in the fray blows off a bomb, which leads to a like response, which leads to an escalated bombing, which leads to ...............

[retell]

Contact the community administrator "

[kotsak]

Contact the community administrator "

same here..

[Payboy]

Contact the community administrator "

same here..

I had not problem viewing the pic on IE, Firefox & Safari. Anyway, it's the same pic from post # 120.

[Publicus]

the boy has had a small win with the US announcing that they have cancelled the test firing of a missile over the peinsular, that will give him sprukking rites to his people no dought......

I agree. Looks like US is bending over backwards not escalate or who knows what is going on behind the scenes.

Patrick Cronin, an Asia expert at the Center for a New American Security and a senior State Department official during the George W. Bush administration, said Beijing is helping set up back-channel negotiations with North Korea to ease the tensions.

[briboy]

Contact the community administrator "

same here gives you the poops, it is not only this image that i get this msg

[apalink_thailand]

They "may" have nukes but with no food to feed the 1 million strong army, they wont get far if war did break out. The initial damage of an invasion to the south though, would be too awful to comtemplate. Also, China will not support them because it makes no strategic sense for them to do so. IMO just more egotistical sabre rattling from the naughty neighbour to the north and the US is playing it up.

[Publicus]

the boy has had a small win with the US announcing that they have cancelled the test firing of a missile over the peinsular, that will give him sprukking rites to his people no dought......

I agree. Looks like US is bending over backwards not escalate or who knows what is going on behind the scenes.

Patrick Cronin, an Asia expert at the Center for a New American Security and a senior State Department official during the George W. Bush administration, said Beijing is helping set up back-channel negotiations with North Korea to ease the tensions.

Interesting, you were referring earlier to Kissinger, and I was just watching an old History Channel special on the Cold War and Vietnam, and Kissinger was really big on establishing back channels through China and the Soviets all the time...not that it helped us in the the end in Vietnam though....

Yeah, the old world European Henry Kissinger is a back channels guy. Although back channeling is secretive, manipulative, often duplicitous, it does serve a purpose, as Dr K learned from his university study of Austrian Prince Clemens von Metternich, who during the time of Napoleon and afterward sought to establish peace in Europe based on a balance of fear among the powers of the time. Metternich himself was secretive, manipulative and, many historians say, tragic in his world view. Even a balance of fear could not stop the Europeans anyway from their 2000 year lust for killing one another.

Another European who also escaped the Nazis to the United States, Madeline Albright - our second foreign born SECSTATE - established back channels but with a different and better outlook and premise, i.e., even in backchanneling openness and confidence gets you more friends you can trust and believe.

I welcome Beijing's efforts to backchannel between the U.S. and N Korea, but with China's 5000 year history of the survival of the fittest, every man for himself, I get uncomfortable thinking about their reliability in this. Besides, nothing says Pyongyang will cooperate with Beijing's efforts. They no longer respect or trust each other any farther than they can throw the other. To borrow a line, I guess if I want a guarantee I'd have to buy a toaster.

[Pakboong]

China may be irritated with NK's acceleration of the mess. China wants the US toppled but not now. They have patience in their foreign policy which is primarily pointed at taking the USA down economically. The plan includes Russia, India, Brazil, China and South Africa. The BRICS monetary plan is something they are completely committed to and they of course know how necessary patience in the matter actually is. Now NK steps in and speeds them out of their anticipated pace. It will be interesting to watch how China handles the situation.

Many Chinese officials view the USA as instigators with China's participation in BRICS as what they want to topple and the road to that is through NK.

Edited April 8, 2013 by Pakboong

[F430murci]

China may be irritated with NK's acceleration of the mess. China wants the US toppled but not now. They have patience in their foreign policy which is primarily pointed at taking the USA down economically. The plan includes Russia, India, Brazil, China and South Africa. The BRICS monetary plan is something they are completely committed to and they of course know how necessary patience in the matter actually is. Now NK steps in and speeds them out of their anticipated pace. It will be interesting to watch how China handles the situation.

Many Chinese officials view the USA as instigators with China's participation in BRICS as what they want to topple and the road to that is through NK.

Uhm, China cannot take US economy down. They have worthless paper and we have their cash. We could also make their currency rapidly appreciate crushing their exports and in turn, GDP. What you also ignore is that Chima is in deep <deleted> economically right now. Big <deleted>.

China really does not benefit from toppling US. China will try and help broker a deal, but I doubt midget leader with 12 inch arms will listen. We shall see.

[Pakboong]

China may be irritated with NK's acceleration of the mess. China wants the US toppled but not now. They have patience in their foreign policy which is primarily pointed at taking the USA down economically. The plan includes Russia, India, Brazil, China and South Africa. The BRICS monetary plan is something they are completely committed to and they of course know how necessary patience in the matter actually is. Now NK steps in and speeds them out of their anticipated pace. It will be interesting to watch how China handles the situation.

Many Chinese officials view the USA as instigators with China's participation in BRICS as what they want to topple and the road to that is through NK.

Uhm, China cannot take US economy down. They have worthless paper and we have their cash. We could also make their currency rapidly appreciate crushing their exports and in turn, GDP. What you also ignore is that Chima is in deep <deleted> economically right now. Big <deleted>.

China really does not benefit from toppling US. China will try and help broker a deal, but I doubt midget leader with 12 inch arms will listen. We shall see.

You may be correct hence the need for China to make it work. The long term view is to topple the dollar as the world's reserve currency. Pay attention to what Russia is doing right now. Putin is working to nationalize his banks. It is likely this effort with Russia's lead that caused the IMF to smack Putin on the wrist with the Cyprus banking mess to let him know he is not a big player and the big bankers want to stop him and his BRICS plan at whatever cost.. The big banking oligarch could bail out Cyprus with their lunch money. They actually see this BRICS arrangement as a threat to their world power and to the International Monetary Fund. Within the last few weeks, Russia has removed those with dual citizenship from positions of authority within its government. They have stopped all foreigners from the banking industry within mother Russia. These are all bold moves and are quietly coordinated.

It is plausible that the US is not after NK at all; Just a justification to put down BRICS before it gets started. China has a treaty to defend NK. China is not ready to take on a serious war with the US at this particular point.

Edited April 8, 2013 by Pakboong