Opinion: Demographic Shifts That Will Affect Thailand's Future

[webfact]

Demographic shifts that will affect Thailand's future
Caspar Peek
Special to The Nation


Young boys in colourful costumes offer prayer during a Buddhist novice ordination rite at Wat Hua Wiang temple in Mae Hong Song province, northern Thailand, on April 3.

BANGKOK: -- Walk around a busy shopping mall anywhere in Thailand on a Saturday afternoon and you may think that this is a youthful country. Scores of young people shopping, hanging out; many young couples with children. Where are the old people, you might ask?

What if I told you that 16 per cent of Thais are over 60 years of age? That means one out of every six people in this country is no longer of working age. So if they are not in the shopping malls, where are they?

The presence of youngsters in shopping malls can be deceiving. Thailand is in fact becoming an ageing society. While a number of Thai senior citizens choose to retire and live upcountry, a number are still living in Bangkok or other cities. However, most are forced to stay home a lot due to inadequate public utilities to help them. Or, they don't have anyone to take care of them when they have to commute or go out.

If today one out of every six Thais is over 60, this figure will soon be one out of five. And in 20 or so years, this will be one out of four. If you looked at the Thai population as if it were a pizza, and sliced it up into eight pieces according to age groups, the elderly would represent only one slice, while people under 18 would represent three slices. Twenty-five years from now, the elderly will eat up two slices, and the under-18s two slices. So, proportionally, there will be many more old people.

On top of that, more people will be very old. In 2010, the average Thai male life expectancy was 70.4 years. Life expectancy is longer for women, at 77.5 years old. In 2030, life expectancy for men will increase to 74.1 years, while women are expected to live, on average, to 80.8 years. This where the additional slice of pizza comes in: one slice for the 60-70 age group, and another for the 70-90 age group.

Unfortunately, Thai society has not prepared well enough for this ageing society. For instance, facilities to aid the elderly, such as wheelchair ramps or walking rails, are not available in many public places. Retraining programmes to enable senior citizens to get back into the workplace do not exist.

While people in many societies traditionally are able to take care of ageing parents, everything changes when people become very old. Now, some of those who are expected to take care of their ageing parents are in their 60s or 70s themselves, and often are no longer capable of doing so. Their own children cannot possibly take care of their parents and grandparents, on top of their own children and busy jobs. So the job of taking care of the very oldest members of society may fall to the state, in the form of institutionalised care. This is a very expensive undertaking.

To complicate things further, the size of the population will also shrink in absolute terms. The number of children born to Thai women has steadily declined over the years, and now stands at an average of 1.6 children in a woman's lifetime. This figure may continue to drop as more women become more educated and cope with the demands of a job, taking care of parents as well as a family, and personal interests. There are, after all, only 24 hours in a day. As a result, it is expected that the population of Thailand, now at 66.7 million, including 2.1 million migrant workers, will start declining by the year 2024, and eventually stabilise at around 67.95 million. This means that fewer people of working age will be required to take care of an increasing number of elderly people or children who are too young to take care of themselves. Whereas today young people represent three slices of pizza, they will soon represent only two slices.

So now there will be a smaller pie. But the slices representing old and very old people will have increased, and the slices representing young people will have decreased. It might still be a good pie, but it will be a more expensive pie, because the cost of providing care to the elderly is much higher than that of providing education and healthcare to children.

So what is the solution to all this pie-baking and concern about smaller pies?

Better ingredients.

We all agree that quality trumps quantity. Premium Japanese melons are sold for thousands of baht apiece because they are simply delicious. So Thailand will need to start baking a smaller but better pie, using only superior ingredients. No society has become rich (except those with abundant mineral resources) by simply selling agricultural produce), nor by sticking to basic manufacturing, without substantial value added. As poor countries become middle-income countries through investment in basic education, the next step, from middle-income to rich economy, comes from a shift towards services - finance, insurance, communications etc. In other words, they have to increase labour productivity by making massive investments in quality education.

Studies indicate that Thailand's competitive edge has steadily eroded because the bulk of graduates lack analytical skills, critical thinking skills and the willingness to challenge and innovate. Thailand spends enormous amounts of money on education, but it goes towards infrastructure and salaries rather than quality improvement.

Additionally, it will be key to ensure that every young person's potential be thoroughly cultivated and applied. With fewer children being born, Thailand simply will not be able to afford wasting the talents of a single child. This means making sure that everyone capable of doing so finishes at least a full twelve years of school. Two million children aged 5-14 are not in school - 20 per cent of all children in that age group. And of the children who do enter school, only slightly over half make it to the finishing line. Additionally, each year 123,000 adolescent girls fall pregnant, and many of them do not finish school. This should not be the case. Not only do they suffer as individuals, but all of society will suffer. How many engineers, inventors, producers, teachers, pilots, nurses and scientists will Thailand throw away because of this? They will not be producers. They will not be consumers. They will not be taxpayers. And without them, who will pay for the elderly?

At the same time, Thai society must seriously consider what kind of "elderly nation" it wants to be. Do we want to see a majority of Thais becoming passive senior citizens or energetic people who cherishing their 'golden years".

So next time you are in a mall on a busy Saturday afternoon, start noticing those with grey hair. There will be more and more of them. In the meanwhile, let's start baking the good pies.

Caspar Peek is the United Nations Population Fund representative for Thailand.


-- The Nation 2013-04-19

[reiltin]

How many Thais do you know who save regularly,how many have car or bike insurance not to mention health insurance,how many have a business acumen that fosters repeat custom,how many put away a little for their children's education,how many have a career plan?

Abraham Lincoln said...

“Give me six hours to chop down a tree and I will spend the first four sharpening the axe.”

A Thai would most probably spend the first 2 hours making som tam the next 2 eating it and a further 4 hours sleeping off the full stomach under the trees shade,he'd make an excuse about the tree being sacred and thus could not be felled-and still demand payment, after all, he's got HIS future to consider!

[bigbamboo]

Wonder if they've seen Logan's Run?

[clockman]

Its ok, look around. Burmese people are taking over, and doing a better job!

[noitom]

We can be the "watermelon hub" of the future. Onward Thailand!!

[Markaew]

"We all agree that quality trumps quantity."

They seem to use this philosophy for everything. They want better quality tourist as well.

The OP speaks about the malls. Where there are malls there is usually a higher cost of living. Maybe not a good sampling for their article.

The youth is out spending their parent's money.

The average retiree can't afford to live in Bangkok, so yes, they do go up country. They have to simplify their life.

Edited April 19, 2013 by Markaew

[Markaew]

Wonder if they've seen Logan's Run?

You're dating yourself. That's a pretty old movie.

[Joe Mamma]

Age is a state of mind.

[belg]

is it really a problem ?

it's not that working people here are losing 50% of their income to the government for supossedly social welfare and pension , etc...

[davejones]

How many Thais do you know who save regularly,how many have car or bike insurance not to mention health insurance,how many have a business acumen that fosters repeat custom,how many put away a little for their children's education,how many have a career plan?

Abraham Lincoln said...

“Give me six hours to chop down a tree and I will spend the first four sharpening the axe.”

A Thai would most probably spend the first 2 hours making som tam the next 2 eating it and a further 4 hours sleeping off the full stomach under the trees shade,he'd make an excuse about the tree being sacred and thus could not be felled-and still demand payment, after all, he's got HIS future to consider!

You obviously hang around with lo-so people. Most Thais I know plan for the future from a young age. Many own land, property, shares, etc. Most also have savings, and this seems to be the norm among the people I know. Sure, some aren't so well off, and some don't plan, but that's how it is in most countries. Even in USA, UK, etc, millions have next to nothing to show for a lifetime of work. You make the mistake of assume all Thais are just like the ones you know. You need to get out a bit more and meet a broader range of people.

Edited April 19, 2013 by davejones

[timewilltell]

Wonder if they've seen Logan's Run?

You're dating yourself. That's a pretty old movie.

I tried dating myself but found it self-abusive!

[puukao]

Abraham Lincoln said...

“Give me six hours to chop down a tree and I will spend the first four sharpening the axe, 1 hour listing the ax on ebay for $10, and then hire a slave for $0.50 while I sip on some gin and juice.”

[Mudcrab]

The demographics described are also apparent in most developing/developed economies.

The ageing population is increasing as a percentage of the overall population. If we want to keep paying aged pensions ....the money has to come from somewhere.

Australia has recently increased the aged pension age to 67 and it will likely increase from there over time (they also tightened to ability for people to access the pension. Maximum of 6 weeks out of Australia then they stop paying. Not good news for someone who wants to retire overseas using the pension as their sole source of income). Only a matter of time until other governments follow this approach in my humble opinion.

Saying "I am entitled to the pension as I worked and paid taxes all my life" is erroneous. When I worked and paid taxes all my life.....I was paying for the people on the aged pension while I was working - the government didn't put it into a bank account to pay for my pension when it becomes due (unfortunately).

Edited April 19, 2013 by Mudcrab

[Pops]

How many Thais do you know who save regularly,how many have car or bike insurance not to mention health insurance,how many have a business acumen that fosters repeat custom,how many put away a little for their children's education,how many have a career plan?

Abraham Lincoln said...

“Give me six hours to chop down a tree and I will spend the first four sharpening the axe.”

A Thai would most probably spend the first 2 hours making som tam the next 2 eating it and a further 4 hours sleeping off the full stomach under the trees shade,he'd make an excuse about the tree being sacred and thus could not be felled-and still demand payment, after all, he's got HIS future to consider!

Bike, car insurance, health insurance, boy are you ignorant !

Do you realize, that most of the Thais live below poverty level, with less then 10,000 THB a month to live on.

With this money they have to raise kids, pay food, rent, monthly payments on motorcycles, gas, school bills etc.

You try that !!

The most lazy people I know in this country are fellow ex-pats living of the benefits they receive from their home countries hanging out in sleazy bars every night drinking on a budget.

It is very easy to judge, when you are born in a country with a system in place, that provides you with certain securities and arrangements (like pensions etc.) as long as you work a regular job, for a boss, for a certain time in your life.

Not much thinking about YOUR future required there, is it now.

[RubbaJohnny]

I am unsure whether to belive the statistics and esp the projections.

Factors that may greatly alter all the age cohorts

1 War and while North Korea isnt expected soon Thailand has had conflicts internal and with all of its neighbours plus major conflicts in Burma,Shan and Malaysia could splill over.A China India nuclear exchange could be as deadly as smoking or the MacFodda diet,

2 Earthquakes,Tsunamis and other natural events are unpredictable.

3 Public Health epideics could hit any age ,young form peri-natal or school transmission

4 The sexually active could succumb to a more virulent transmission or be eaten by internal parasites.

4 Geriatrics may be more prone to bird flu and other outbreaks while better pensions may lead to longevity etc.I believ no longtitudinal study has been done on premature mortality due to drug abuse esp YabbaDabba don;t.

5 Birth rates and fertility can all rise and fall for religiuos ,cultural and economic reason as the1 child policy.

6 Mass immigration or emigration always taked a while to be recognized just as USA has sucked inillegals this may occur if Thailand booms inAsean and will be encouraged by employers and corruption.

7 Equally if ASEAN leads to far higher incomes in Anglopone Malaysia or the sleeping dragon that is Indonesia Thais might head there or anywhere they can ,Yinan ,Inda if things are really dire at home due to endless corruption.

I claim no specal knowledge but forecasting seems to have along way to go in a country that has problems with such new fangled stuff as water and 3G.

As they discovered in Ireland when Lloyd George gave first 'free 'old age pensions folks will attempt to collect indefinately.

As developed economies have realized you can always import folks be they sexpats ,Royhingha or workers if you have the carrots.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Off to the funeral of a lovely old peasant who had 5 kids 2 wives and enjoyed 88 years without a car,vote or gun to help him survive 88 summers.

Edited April 20, 2013 by RubbaJohnny

[TackyToo]

Age is a state of mind.

Is this what you tell a 70-year old who broke his leg on Bangkok’s rotten pedestrian paths, those who are too weak to climb an over path while they are too slow to cross the road in the city’s notorious traffic, or those with their little veggie-stall who were pushed down the soi to the dead spot with parked motorbikes? Like it or not, there is a little more to it than just second hand calendar philosophy.

[thhMan]

Wonder if they've seen Logan's Run?

You're dating yourself. That's a pretty old movie.

Yeah... but a classic.... Add a touch of Soilent Green and we have the solution to aging and food

[kimamey]

Wonder if they've seen Logan's Run?

You're dating yourself. That's a pretty old movie.

Yeah... but a classic.... Add a touch of Soilent Green and we have the solution to aging and food

A touch of Jenny Agutter and Farrah Fawcett is what I was thinking but maybe I'm just a sad old pervert

[kimamey]

They'll probably have to raise the retirement age as they have elsewhere.

I would think anyone who old and infirm or even young and infirm or disabled would have real problems here. My late wife spent her last years in a wheelchair so when I look about me in the streets of Bangkok or anywhere in Thailand I can see all the problems. Obviously if your in one of the shopping malls you're ok but as for using a wheel chair on many streets you can forget it. Sometimes it's impossible to walk along, let alone get along with a wheelchair or walking frame. Even in Tesco Lotus in Khon Kaen there doesn't seem to be an elevator to get up to the next floor. Well not that I could see anyway.

[hellodolly]

How many Thais do you know who save regularly,how many have car or bike insurance not to mention health insurance,how many have a business acumen that fosters repeat custom,how many put away a little for their children's education,how many have a career plan?

Abraham Lincoln said...

“Give me six hours to chop down a tree and I will spend the first four sharpening the axe.”

A Thai would most probably spend the first 2 hours making som tam the next 2 eating it and a further 4 hours sleeping off the full stomach under the trees shade,he'd make an excuse about the tree being sacred and thus could not be felled-and still demand payment, after all, he's got HIS future to consider!

You obviously hang around with lo-so people. Most Thais I know plan for the future from a young age. Many own land, property, shares, etc. Most also have savings, and this seems to be the norm among the people I know. Sure, some aren't so well off, and some don't plan, but that's how it is in most countries. Even in USA, UK, etc, millions have next to nothing to show for a lifetime of work. You make the mistake of assume all Thais are just like the ones you know. You need to get out a bit more and meet a broader range of people.

Excellent advice. I hope you take it.

You overlook the fact that the majority of Thais do not bring in these big incomes you and your circle of friends do. In fact if it wasn't for these people you consider lo so there would be no need for you.

You might try to spend a week with Thais who work 48 hours a week and don't have a tie because they can not afford it. Or spend a week in the rice fields. It is a big world out there take your own advice and experience it.

[hellodolly]

They'll probably have to raise the retirement age as they have elsewhere.

I would think anyone who old and infirm or even young and infirm or disabled would have real problems here. My late wife spent her last years in a wheelchair so when I look about me in the streets of Bangkok or anywhere in Thailand I can see all the problems. Obviously if your in one of the shopping malls you're ok but as for using a wheel chair on many streets you can forget it. Sometimes it's impossible to walk along, let alone get along with a wheelchair or walking frame. Even in Tesco Lotus in Khon Kaen there doesn't seem to be an elevator to get up to the next floor. Well not that I could see anyway.

In the early 70s in British Columbia they started planing for the older generation wheel chair ramps on every corner and what not. It took them roughly 20 years before consideration for the aging population was as automatic for planing as was the money to pay for it.

I had reason to be on crutches for about a month and I was surprised at the number of business that provided wheel chairs. Sadly Thailand has a way to go before they can get a decent infrastructure that will include the handicapped most of who will be elders.

Also they will have to make some sort of allowance for the street venders. The one big thing they could do right now would be fine motor bikes parked on the side walks. That would be a start.

Edited April 21, 2013 by hellodolly

[ZhouZhou]

They'll probably have to raise the retirement age as they have elsewhere.

I would think anyone who old and infirm or even young and infirm or disabled would have real problems here. My late wife spent her last years in a wheelchair so when I look about me in the streets of Bangkok or anywhere in Thailand I can see all the problems. Obviously if your in one of the shopping malls you're ok but as for using a wheel chair on many streets you can forget it. Sometimes it's impossible to walk along, let alone get along with a wheelchair or walking frame. Even in Tesco Lotus in Khon Kaen there doesn't seem to be an elevator to get up to the next floor. Well not that I could see anyway.

In the early 70s in British Columbia they started planing for the older generation wheel chair ramps on every corner and what not. It took them roughly 20 years before consideration for the aging population was as automatic for planing as was the money to pay for it.

I had reason to be on crutches for about a month and I was surprised at the number of business that provided wheel chairs. Sadly Thailand has a way to go before they can get a decent infrastructure that will include the handicapped most of who will be elders.

Also they will have to make some sort of allowance for the street venders. The one big thing they could do right now would be fine motor bikes parked on the side walks. That would be a start.

you can get a wheelchair almost everywhere in Thailand in a public buildings or shopping center. just go to front desk or security and ask. they will provide a wheelchair for visitors in need. your friendly taxi driver will happy to assist you to get it.

so you don't have to bring always your own wheelchair.

as for the Tesco Lotus that doesn't had an elevator. go talk with security. they will stop the shopping cart escalators for you and let them run uphill so you have access to upper floor.

of course there want be wheelchair or walkframe accessible food path beside the roads soon. specially not on the ways where no Thai would walk on foot anyway.

but public parks are fine with wheelchair.

[MaiChai]

It's part of the culture here that the young look after the older family members. The young go off to the cities and send money back to the family. Grand parents typically live in the same family house back in the village and get looked after by the other family members there.

So problem is not so much the regular care, but medical bills. I believe the old do get free health care, but that does not include medicines or operations such as join repairs/replacements. These costs fall on the family.

[francescoassisi]

Over 60s???

Compared to the "West" these percentage figures are small. I think that drawing conclusions in isolation is not really reliable enough....the whole picture needs to be seen in comparison with other SE ASIAN countries and in a world context. You might also look at retirement ages elsewhere and benefit liabilities by governments

[kimamey]

They'll probably have to raise the retirement age as they have elsewhere.

I would think anyone who old and infirm or even young and infirm or disabled would have real problems here. My late wife spent her last years in a wheelchair so when I look about me in the streets of Bangkok or anywhere in Thailand I can see all the problems. Obviously if your in one of the shopping malls you're ok but as for using a wheel chair on many streets you can forget it. Sometimes it's impossible to walk along, let alone get along with a wheelchair or walking frame. Even in Tesco Lotus in Khon Kaen there doesn't seem to be an elevator to get up to the next floor. Well not that I could see anyway.

In the early 70s in British Columbia they started planing for the older generation wheel chair ramps on every corner and what not. It took them roughly 20 years before consideration for the aging population was as automatic for planing as was the money to pay for it.

I had reason to be on crutches for about a month and I was surprised at the number of business that provided wheel chairs. Sadly Thailand has a way to go before they can get a decent infrastructure that will include the handicapped most of who will be elders.

Also they will have to make some sort of allowance for the street venders. The one big thing they could do right now would be fine motor bikes parked on the side walks. That would be a start.

you can get a wheelchair almost everywhere in Thailand in a public buildings or shopping center. just go to front desk or security and ask. they will provide a wheelchair for visitors in need. your friendly taxi driver will happy to assist you to get it.

so you don't have to bring always your own wheelchair.

as for the Tesco Lotus that doesn't had an elevator. go talk with security. they will stop the shopping cart escalators for you and let them run uphill so you have access to upper floor.

of course there want be wheelchair or walkframe accessible food path beside the roads soon. specially not on the ways where no Thai would walk on foot anyway.

but public parks are fine with wheelchair.

It's nearly 8 years since my wife died so I don't notice these things as much as I used to. I only noticed in Tesco because I was there with my family and my mother in law who is very fit just happened to have a problem with her hip at that time and couldn't use the escalator. I assumed there would be an elevator nearby as it's a modern building but I couldn't see one. We could have asked but they'd decided to go elsewhere anyway. The only reason to go up there was all the food outlets so maybe there's no shopping cart escalator. As I say I can't be sure it's just it wasn't obvious.

There's a couple of new bridges in Ratchadaphisek Rd, Bangkok which if I remember have for some reason got a raised section next to where they start on the footpath which is impassable. Unfortunately you can't see it on Google street view. Older sections of road and buildings will take a long time to put right but there needs to be a start on newer projects. Make no mistake it's a big task.

As you say a lot of parks are fine.

[joorakee]

If the society is ageing, will Thailand welcome young foreigners willing to work in the country as Japan does? Will it become easier to get a work permit, an appropriate visa, etc.? Or will farangs under 50 be discouraged from paying their taxes and social security contributions in the LOS, doing visa runs on a regular basis and working remotely being an easier option?

Edited April 22, 2013 by joorakee

[BlackJack]

thais are reactive and not proactive (full stop)

[RubbaJohnny]

Over 60s???

Compared to the "West" these percentage figures are small. I think that drawing conclusions in isolation is not really reliable enough....the whole picture needs to be seen in comparison with other SE ASIAN countries and in a world context. You might also look at retirement ages elsewhere and benefit liabilities by governments

Good point

[RubbaJohnny]

thais are reactive and not proactive (full stop)

and increasingly interactive on the interwebs so travel broader horizons may combined with ASEAN common Market transform some aspects.

I think the holidays Pitts and Sanook that mean whole crews of builders etc vanish for a week at time may slow their adoption of Japanes low stock ''JUST-IN-TIME' production template

[francescoassisi]

How many Thais do you know who save regularly,how many have car or bike insurance not to mention health insurance,how many have a business acumen that fosters repeat custom,how many put away a little for their children's education,how many have a career plan?

Abraham Lincoln said...

“Give me six hours to chop down a tree and I will spend the first four sharpening the axe.”

A Thai would most probably spend the first 2 hours making som tam the next 2 eating it and a further 4 hours sleeping off the full stomach under the trees shade,he'd make an excuse about the tree being sacred and thus could not be felled-and still demand payment, after all, he's got HIS future to consider!

Bike, car insurance, health insurance, boy are you ignorant !

Do you realize, that most of the Thais live below poverty level, with less then 10,000 THB a month to live on.

With this money they have to raise kids, pay food, rent, monthly payments on motorcycles, gas, school bills etc.

You try that !!

The most lazy people I know in this country are fellow ex-pats living of the benefits they receive from their home countries hanging out in sleazy bars every night drinking on a budget.

It is very easy to judge, when you are born in a country with a system in place, that provides you with certain securities and arrangements (like pensions etc.) as long as you work a regular job, for a boss, for a certain time in your life.

Not much thinking about YOUR future required there, is it now.

Both well wide of the mark.

Both culture and lack of welfare mean that S.E. Asia has some of the highest rates of saving percent of income in the world.

Even at low income levels people save for the inevitable rainy day. Just look at the preponderance of gold shops and ask yourself why.