Liverpool F.c.

[MrRed]

luis short-listed for Ballon d 'Or

Luis Suarez's sensational first year at Liverpool has seen him emerge as a contender for the prestigious Ballon d'Or award.

The Uruguayan's scintillating form for both club and country has led to countless plaudits over the past 12 months, culminating in his inclusion in a 23-man short-list.

The No.7 has found the net 11 times in 26 matches for the Reds so far, including a stunning brace in the recent Carling Cup triumph at Stoke City

The striker also notched four goals as he helped his country secure the 2011 Copa America title where he was named player of the tournament.

The former Ajax man's impact at Anfield has been such that it has even left manager Kenny Dalglish searching for the superlatives to describe his influence on his Liverpool side.

Wayne Rooney, Sergio Aguero and Nani are the other three Barclays Premier League stars on the list, while no fewer than eight Barcelona players are included.

The winners will be revealed at the second FIFA Ballon d'Or gala in Zurich on January 9, 2012.

The contenders in full: Eric Abidal (France), Sergio Aguero (Argentina), Karim Benzema (France), Iker Casillas (Spain), Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal), Dani Alves (Brazil), Samuel Eto'o (Cameroon), Cesc Fabregas (Spain), Diego Forlan (Uruguay), Andres Iniesta (Spain), Lionel Messi (Argentina), Thomas Muller (Germany), Nani (Portugal), Neymar (Brazil), Mesut Ozil (Germany), Gerard Pique (Spain), Wayne Rooney (England), Bastian Schweinsteiger (Germany), Wesley Sneijder (Holland), Luis Suarez (Uruguay), David Villa (Spain), Xabi Alonso (Spain), Xavi (Spain).

A list that contains Nani, and not Modric!

Yes Carmine or for that matter what about Carroll .

8 Barca players in that list ! Is that a record for the amount of players from one team?

Don't knock Andy, he's class.

And the winner is......Lionel Messi! how many hat-tricks has he got already this season? no one to touch him at the moment.

[carmine]

Anyway if all the teams match their results of last for the remains of this season, the table would be Man U 80, Man City 77, Chelsea 70, Arsenal/Liverpool 68 and Spurs 67.

But they wont though will they, so a useless statement really

Still it's one way of getting the scousers in the top 4 i suppose, just a shame that it won't work in reality

I think Arsenal will be fifth and Liverpool sixth. Apart from that abraks post is laughable!

[smokie36]

Anyway if all the teams match their results of last for the remains of this season, the table would be Man U 80, Man City 77, Chelsea 70, Arsenal/Liverpool 68 and Spurs 67.

But they wont though will they, so a useless statement really

Still it's one way of getting the scousers in the top 4 i suppose, just a shame that it won't work in reality

I think Arsenal will be fifth and Liverpool sixth. Apart from that abraks post is laughable!

Arse fifth geordies sixth Scousers seventh.

[MrRed]

Whats all this <deleted> about?

[smokie36]

Whats all this <deleted> about?

In my case £35m of irony.

[Abrak]

100% incorrect. Dumb comment to post. Think again!!

I'm failing to see your logic here spock la....and I'm all out of fresh coffee....perhaps you would care to explain?

I thought your comment on the lines 'that it doesnt take into account the teams you play' was dumb because 'it does' and I cant understand why you would think 'match equivalence data' would do anything else.

The premiership table is 'timeline data' where no account is made of the teams you play. Imagine you have two teams who in the previous season scored equal points. At the beginning of the next season one team plays the first six games against the top 6 teams and scores six points and the other team plays the bottom clubs and scores 12. The time line data show that the second team is better 12 - 6. But which is doing better?

What 'match equivalence' data does is to compare a match with the equivalent match of the previous year. So in the previous example if the first club had scored only 5 against the top teams he would be +1 and if the second team scored 13 points against the bottom fishers it would be -1. In other words by comparing like with like you take into account the 'teams you play'. Timelines can also be misleading due to 'home' and 'away'. Liverpool won 5 away matches last season, Spurs 6 and Everton lost 3 home games.

All 'match equivalence' does is compare 'this year's results' with exactly the same fixtures last year and note the points differential thereby attempting to eradicate both 'home' and 'away' as well as 'which teams you play' that is an inherent bias in the table. It is an incredibly simple calculation and can be misleading but one thing it is not is 'bias against or for the teams you play against'. That is the whole point.

[smokie36]

100% incorrect. Dumb comment to post. Think again!!

I'm failing to see your logic here spock la....and I'm all out of fresh coffee....perhaps you would care to explain?

I thought your comment on the lines 'that it doesnt take into account the teams you play' was dumb because 'it does' and I cant understand why you would think 'match equivalence data' would do anything else.

The premiership table is 'timeline data' where no account is made of the teams you play. Imagine you have two teams who in the previous season scored equal points. At the beginning of the next season one team plays the first six games against the top 6 teams and scores six points and the other team plays the bottom clubs and scores 12. The time line data show that the second team is better 12 - 6. But which is doing better?

What 'match equivalence' data does is to compare a match with the equivalent match of the previous year. So in the previous example if the first club had scored only 5 against the top teams he would be +1 and if the second team scored 13 points against the bottom fishers it would be -1. In other words by comparing like with like you take into account the 'teams you play'. Timelines can also be misleading due to 'home' and 'away'. Liverpool won 5 away matches last season, Spurs 6 and Everton lost 3 home games.

All 'match equivalence' does is compare 'this year's results' with exactly the same fixtures last year and note the points differential thereby attempting to eradicate both 'home' and 'away' as well as 'which teams you play' that is an inherent bias in the table. It is an incredibly simple calculation and can be misleading but one thing it is not is 'bias against or for the teams you play against'. That is the whole point.

Err right. Anyway when we win our next six games and are sitting in third I'll be grinning like a chesire cat....

[Devil]

1320307585[/url]' post='4818719']

1320306160[/url]' post='4818666']

1320212320[/url]' post='4815666']

1320209270[/url]' post='4815521']

100% incorrect. Dumb comment to post. Think again!!

I'm failing to see your logic here spock la....and I'm all out of fresh coffee....perhaps you would care to explain?

I thought your comment on the lines 'that it doesnt take into account the teams you play' was dumb because 'it does' and I cant understand why you would think 'match equivalence data' would do anything else.

The premiership table is 'timeline data' where no account is made of the teams you play. Imagine you have two teams who in the previous season scored equal points. At the beginning of the next season one team plays the first six games against the top 6 teams and scores six points and the other team plays the bottom clubs and scores 12. The time line data show that the second team is better 12 - 6. But which is doing better?

What 'match equivalence' data does is to compare a match with the equivalent match of the previous year. So in the previous example if the first club had scored only 5 against the top teams he would be +1 and if the second team scored 13 points against the bottom fishers it would be -1. In other words by comparing like with like you take into account the 'teams you play'. Timelines can also be misleading due to 'home' and 'away'. Liverpool won 5 away matches last season, Spurs 6 and Everton lost 3 home games.

All 'match equivalence' does is compare 'this year's results' with exactly the same fixtures last year and note the points differential thereby attempting to eradicate both 'home' and 'away' as well as 'which teams you play' that is an inherent bias in the table. It is an incredibly simple calculation and can be misleading but one thing it is not is 'bias against or for the teams you play against'. That is the whole point.

Err right. Anyway when we win our next six games and are sitting in third I'll be grinning like a chesire cat....

It's all starting to make sense now... Abrak are you a gambling man by any chance

*******

STATTO from TV's Fantasy Football has been declared bankrupt.

Angus Loughran, 42, who reportedly won £270,000 on a race at Aintree, officially went bust this month.

The Dumbarton-born gambler and tipster said he didn't know why he had been taken to court.

But he admitted having "a bit of a nightmare" over council tax after a row over whether he was entitled to a discount for living alone.

Loughran said he had been out of the country and had not read any of his mail since Christmas.

He added: "I have probably been a bit naive."

He shot to fame in the 1990s as Statto on Frank Skinner and David Baddiel's comedy football show.

*******

[Abrak]

Err right. Anyway when we win our next six games and are sitting in third I'll be grinning like a chesire cat....

You certainly will be. If you consider that I think that any team that has won 20 games in a season has finished at least 4th - you will already have 12 wins after 15 games. You will also be on 37 points which means you only need 4 points from the next 4 matches to have 41 points which is what Man Utd had at the half way stage to lead the Premiership last year.

The match that threw people on Spurs was the 5-1 loss to City at home. Liverpool have never had 5 or more goals scored against them in the league at Anfield in the last 50 years of being in the Premier division. Obviously City are proving exceptional and I guess tactics must have changed when Chelsea let in 5 goals at home and AVB says there is nothing wrong with their defense. At Liverpool we are used to talking about 'clean sheets' or lack of them at home.

[carmine]

Err right. Anyway when we win our next six games and are sitting in third I'll be grinning like a chesire cat....

You certainly will be. If you consider that I think that any team that has won 20 games in a season has finished at least 4th - you will already have 12 wins after 15 games. You will also be on 37 points which means you only need 4 points from the next 4 matches to have 41 points which is what Man Utd had at the half way stage to lead the Premiership last year.

The match that threw people on Spurs was the 5-1 loss to City at home. Liverpool have never had 5 or more goals scored against them in the league at Anfield in the last 50 years of being in the Premier division. Obviously City are proving exceptional and I guess tactics must have changed when Chelsea let in 5 goals at home and AVB says there is nothing wrong with their defense. At Liverpool we are used to talking about 'clean sheets' or lack of them at home.

In the first two games against Utd and City we were comprehensively beaten. However, what is very relevent is the Tottenham line ups for those two games and you might want to check that out. We are a very different side now and a few of the injured players are back. Dropping those points against those two in the first two fixtures is of no concern to me whatsoever, bar our goal difference.

[carmine]

100% incorrect. Dumb comment to post. Think again!!

I'm failing to see your logic here spock la....and I'm all out of fresh coffee....perhaps you would care to explain?

I thought your comment on the lines 'that it doesnt take into account the teams you play' was dumb because 'it does' and I cant understand why you would think 'match equivalence data' would do anything else.

The premiership table is 'timeline data' where no account is made of the teams you play. Imagine you have two teams who in the previous season scored equal points. At the beginning of the next season one team plays the first six games against the top 6 teams and scores six points and the other team plays the bottom clubs and scores 12. The time line data show that the second team is better 12 - 6. But which is doing better?

What 'match equivalence' data does is to compare a match with the equivalent match of the previous year. So in the previous example if the first club had scored only 5 against the top teams he would be +1 and if the second team scored 13 points against the bottom fishers it would be -1. In other words by comparing like with like you take into account the 'teams you play'. Timelines can also be misleading due to 'home' and 'away'. Liverpool won 5 away matches last season, Spurs 6 and Everton lost 3 home games.

All 'match equivalence' does is compare 'this year's results' with exactly the same fixtures last year and note the points differential thereby attempting to eradicate both 'home' and 'away' as well as 'which teams you play' that is an inherent bias in the table. It is an incredibly simple calculation and can be misleading but one thing it is not is 'bias against or for the teams you play against'. That is the whole point.

Your season rests on Surarez. However if he keeps smashing his forearm into players faces "off the ball" he could be in for some time off which is going to cost you. Luckily that last time the ref didn't see it or it was yellow at the very least. But he's never feigned dived or picked his nose you know. :DFact is, when he is well contained like he was at White Hart Lane he gets very niggly off the ball.

Edited November 4, 2011 by carmine

[Abrak]

Your season rests on Surarez. However if he keeps smashing his forearm into players faces "off the ball" he could be in for some time off which is going to cost you. Luckily that last time the ref didn't see it or it was yellow at the very least. But he's never feigned dived or picked his nose you know. :DFact is, when he is well contained like he was at White Hart Lane he gets very niggly off the ball.

Yes I will readily admit we are too reliant on Suarez but that is because he is so good.

If you guys get 3rd/4th it wont be the end of the world because in the medium term you dont have enough money (commercial revenues)(at least until you are taken over).

It is far more important that Arsenal dont get 4th because I think they will spend heavily to avoid the position they have got themselves into this year.

[MrRed]

I don't know how the mighty have fallen squabbling over 4th 5th and even 6th place,time for some scouse jokes i think!

Suarez is doomed!

[Abrak]

I don't know how the mighty have fallen squabbling over 4th 5th and even 6th place,time for some scouse jokes i think!

Suarez is doomed!

And what exactly is Man Utd squabbling over? You are competing against unlimited financial resources on the basis that you think you might win. But you have already lost. You are only really having an argument about how big 'unlimited' actually is which is futile because you already know.

[Jimjim]

Anyway if all the teams match their results of last for the remains of this season, the table would be Man U 80, Man City 77, Chelsea 70, Arsenal/Liverpool 68 and Spurs 67.

But they wont though will they, so a useless statement really

Still it's one way of getting the scousers in the top 4 i suppose, just a shame that it won't work in reality

I think Arsenal will be fifth and Liverpool sixth. Apart from that abraks post is laughable!

Yeah and Newcastle fourth.

[carmine]

Well, it seems that i'm not getting an answer to Luis's penchant for off the ball contact just like singher never recieved his book.

[Abrak]

Well, it seems that i'm not getting an answer to Luis's penchant for off the ball contact just like singher never recieved his book.

'Singher never received his book' because he asked me to send him one of my books. I never said or intended to send him one of my books because 1) he almost certainly wouldnt read it and 2) if he wanted to read it, it is far easier for him to buy it - it takes one-click on Amazon or a short trip to your local post office.

Personally I think most Suarez arguments are equally pointless.

[alfieconn]

Anyway if all the teams match their results of last for the remains of this season, the table would be Man U 80, Man City 77, Chelsea 70, Arsenal/Liverpool 68 and Spurs 67.

But they wont though will they, so a useless statement really

Still it's one way of getting the scousers in the top 4 i suppose, just a shame that it won't work in reality

I think Arsenal will be fifth and Liverpool sixth. Apart from that abraks post is laughable!

Yeah and Newcastle fourth.

So your saying Jim that either Chels or man u won't be in the top 6

[carmine]

Well, it seems that i'm not getting an answer to Luis's penchant for off the ball contact just like singher never recieved his book.

'Singher never received his book' because he asked me to send him one of my books. I never said or intended to send him one of my books because 1) he almost certainly wouldnt read it and 2) if he wanted to read it, it is far easier for him to buy it - it takes one-click on Amazon or a short trip to your local post office.

Personally I think most Suarez arguments are equally pointless.

Thats another over sensitive post.

Funny how when i sight an incidence about Suarez its either pointless or i don't get a reply.

[smokie36]

I think Arsenal will be fifth and Liverpool sixth. Apart from that abraks post is laughable!

Yeah and Newcastle fourth.

So your saying Jim that either Chels or man u won't be in the top 6

Its the scouse thread Alf...he must be talking about Man Yoo.

[Abrak]

Here is a stats post that I think is quite interesting even if you dont like stats.

The question is 'Does more possession of the ball lead to more wins?'

Intuitively you would expect the answer to be 'yes' on the basis that you need possession of the ball to score a goal.

According to the stats - they are taken from the MLS - the answer is 'no'. Furthermore the stats are very convincing.

This is most obviously evident by simply looking at all the games over the season. There were 68 draws. But of the 146 games where there was a result.

86 games were won by the team with less possession

60 games were won by the team with more possession

The average possession of the winning side was 48.4% and the average possession of the losing side 51.6%. Splitting this home and away. The average possession of a winning home side is 50.9% and the average possession of a losing home side is 56.6%. So away wins average 43.4% possession and away losses 49.1%.

Arguably even these stats arent terribly interesting on the basis that when say the possession statistics are 52/48 then you wouldnt really expect a team with a slightly higher possession to win. Actually there is a degree of truth in that when the split of possession is 50-55/45-50, the number of wins on either side is roughly equal.

But that actually makes the other data more interesting. And remember possession statistics are unbias from the point of view that they always add up to 100. There are therefore exactly the same number of games where one team has possession of over 60% as there are games where one team has possession of under 40%. So to me this makes this statistic particularly interesting.

This refers only to the 87 games that were won by one goal (59.6%) of the total.

Over those games where one side had over 60% of possession. Of the 20 games that one side or other had over 60% of possession 6 winners had over 60% of possession and 14 winners had less than 40%.

In addition there were 22 matches where the split of possession was 55-60/40-45%. Of those 22 games 8 winners had the higher possession (55-60) and 14 winners had the lower possession.

Now to some extent I know people will think that this cant hold true. Think of Barcelona who always have very high possession and nearly always win. However also consider Mourinho's Inter Milan that won the CL against Bayern with 30% possession 2-0. They also beat Barcelona 2-1 in aggregate in the semi-final with 21.6% possession. And I remember last season that Dalglish had better results than Hodgson even though the team had lower possession numbers.

As for why this should be the case, noone seems to have worked it out yet. I can think of two possible explanations that might have some validity. First was StevieH's explanation for Liverpool's performance - namely that Hodgson basically had the Liverpool defense passing it around amongst themselves for long periods. Second is more a personal observation. It seems to me that quite a high percentage of goals are scored from counter-attacks/break aways often while one team has been pressing the opposition for a sustained period at the other end.

Anyway it appears that 'possession' isnt always as important as it is cut out to be.

[Abrak]

Funny how when i sight an incidence about Suarez its either pointless or i don't get a reply.

Not 'funny' but 'logical'. I 'dont reply' to arguments about Suarez because I think the arguments are 'pointless'. So I had better shut up then.

[alfieconn]

Here is a stats post that I think is quite interesting even if you dont like stats.

The question is 'Does more possession of the ball lead to more wins?'

Intuitively you would expect the answer to be 'yes' on the basis that you need possession of the ball to score a goal.

According to the stats - they are taken from the MLS - the answer is 'no'. Furthermore the stats are very convincing.

This is most obviously evident by simply looking at all the games over the season. There were 68 draws. But of the 146 games where there was a result.

86 games were won by the team with less possession

60 games were won by the team with more possession

The average possession of the winning side was 48.4% and the average possession of the losing side 51.6%. Splitting this home and away. The average possession of a winning home side is 50.9% and the average possession of a losing home side is 56.6%. So away wins average 43.4% possession and away losses 49.1%.

Arguably even these stats arent terribly interesting on the basis that when say the possession statistics are 52/48 then you wouldnt really expect a team with a slightly higher possession to win. Actually there is a degree of truth in that when the split of possession is 50-55/45-50, the number of wins on either side is roughly equal.

But that actually makes the other data more interesting. And remember possession statistics are unbias from the point of view that they always add up to 100. There are therefore exactly the same number of games where one team has possession of over 60% as there are games where one team has possession of under 40%. So to me this makes this statistic particularly interesting.

This refers only to the 87 games that were won by one goal (59.6%) of the total.

Over those games where one side had over 60% of possession. Of the 20 games that one side or other had over 60% of possession 6 winners had over 60% of possession and 14 winners had less than 40%.

In addition there were 22 matches where the split of possession was 55-60/40-45%. Of those 22 games 8 winners had the higher possession (55-60) and 14 winners had the lower possession.

Now to some extent I know people will think that this cant hold true. Think of Barcelona who always have very high possession and nearly always win. However also consider Mourinho's Inter Milan that won the CL against Bayern with 30% possession 2-0. They also beat Barcelona 2-1 in aggregate in the semi-final with 21.6% possession. And I remember last season that Dalglish had better results than Hodgson even though the team had lower possession numbers.

As for why this should be the case, noone seems to have worked it out yet. I can think of two possible explanations that might have some validity. First was StevieH's explanation for Liverpool's performance - namely that Hodgson basically had the Liverpool defense passing it around amongst themselves for long periods. Second is more a personal observation. It seems to me that quite a high percentage of goals are scored from counter-attacks/break aways often while one team has been pressing the opposition for a sustained period at the other end.

Anyway it appears that 'possession' isnt always as important as it is cut out to be.

How many games did the team with 0% possession win Abs could be a few i suppose, taking into account Jamies own goal record

[MrRed]

Where's that renowned scouse humor gone?

An Australian, an Irishman and a Scouser are in a bar.

They're staring at another man sitting on his own in the corner. He's so familiar, and not recognising him is driving them mad.

They stare and stare, until suddenly the Irishman twigs: 'My God, it's Jesus!'

Sure enough, it is Jesus, nursing a pint. Thrilled, they send him over a pint of Guinness, a pint of Fosters and a pint of bitter.

Jesus accepts the drinks, smiles over at the three men, and drinks the pints slowly, one after another.

After he's finished the drinks, Jesus approaches the trio.

He reaches for the hand of the Irishman and shakes it, thanking him for the Guinness.

When he lets go, the Irishman gives a cry of amazement: 'My God! The arthritis I've had for 30 years is gone. It's a miracle!'

Jesus then shakes the Aussie's hand, thanking him for the lager.

As he lets go, the man's eyes widen in shock. 'Strewth mate, the bad back I've had all my life is completely gone! It's a miracle.'

Jesus then approaches the Scouser who says 'Back off, mate, I'm on disability benefit.’

Edited November 5, 2011 by MrRed

[Abrak]

Ok, ok...

Howard Webb dies and goes up to the Pearly Gates where he meets St Peter.

'Before I can let you into heaven, I need to know whether you have done anything good in your life'

'Well not really' replies Howard

'Well how about something brave?'

'Well yes actually... I was refereeing a really tight match between Man U and Liverpool at Anfield and I awarded a penalty to Man U at the Kop End'

'So when did you do that?' asked St Peter

'Two minutes ago' replied Howard Webb

[MrRed]

Is that supposed to be funny?

[Abrak]

Well played Swansea. Thoroughly deserved the draw.

These Saturday evening games are beginning to ruin my weekend.

Personally I thought a lot of our performance was a consequence of Suarez having an off day - it makes us look very ordinary.

[Thaddeus]

it makes us look very ordinary.

Which, at the moment we are.

[Abrak]

it makes us look very ordinary.

Which, at the moment we are.

Yes fair point. It is slightly disappointing to see that 4th is rapidly slipping from our grasp. And that we are not yet good enough.

But you have to remember than when Kenny took over last January we were truly the pits. Also...

1) My view say on Kenny is that for the second half of last season he was 'exceptional' in getting a very strong performance from a weak squad riddled with injury.

2) It has been two months since the massive changes in August. Look at City last year they spent 140m in the previous pre-season and added 4 points. It took them a season to gel.

3) 3 out of 5 of our major competitors spent as much on 'net spend' as we did in the summer while already having a much stronger squad.

Also....

1) We have hit the post 11 times - more than any other team

2) And supposedly created more chances while scoring less goals

And, at the end of the day, it is a long term project after many years of decline. And speed bumps along the way inevitably occur.

We arent that bad. Both Spurs and Arsenal supporters have reached despair levels this year of thinking they may end up 8th. I am pretty certain we will be in the top 6. But rather like Red says that a draw is considered a loss at United. Coming 6th in the top 6 is actually coming last.

[smokie36]

it makes us look very ordinary.

Which, at the moment we are.

Yes fair point. It is slightly disappointing to see that 4th is rapidly slipping from our grasp. And that we are not yet good enough.

But you have to remember than when Kenny took over last January we were truly the pits. Also...

1) My view say on Kenny is that for the second half of last season he was 'exceptional' in getting a very strong performance from a weak squad riddled with injury.

2) It has been two months since the massive changes in August. Look at City last year they spent 140m in the previous pre-season and added 4 points. It took them a season to gel.

3) 3 out of 5 of our major competitors spent as much on 'net spend' as we did in the summer while already having a much stronger squad.

Also....

1) We have hit the post 11 times - more than any other team

2) And supposedly created more chances while scoring less goals

And, at the end of the day, it is a long term project after many years of decline. And speed bumps along the way inevitably occur.

We arent that bad. Both Spurs and Arsenal supporters have reached despair levels this year of thinking they may end up 8th. I am pretty certain we will be in the top 6. But rather like Red says that a draw is considered a loss at United. Coming 6th in the top 6 is actually coming last.

Plenty of stats...I'm looking forward to carmine's response to this almost as much as you are Abrak me old china....