Westerners: Another Thai Bubble?

[aTomsLife]

Day after day, we hear tell of asset bubbles, real estate bubbles, currency bubbles, tourism bubbles, etc. Does the seemingly ever growing population of expats represent a bubble, too?

I suppose this isn't a question for the long-timers, who set up shop here before it was so in vogue, but I'm nevertheless interested to hear from anyone with an opinion on the matter.

Does the ever growing number of expats in Thailand represent a long term trend or a fad?

[Soutpeel]

are they actually more and more "expats" setting up here than ever before ?...what gives you that idea ?

[soi41]

We are as important as a piss in Mississippi !

[aTomsLife]

Fair question, Soutpeel. I am under that impression because of the dismal state of the economy in western countries, and constantly seeing articles about the best places to retire -- these things leading westerners to try their lot in Asia, and particularly Thailand.

Also, the teaching market is overly competitive given the pay and working conditions, in my humble opinion. Ask any teacher (despite whatever opinion of them you might have), the employment markets are saturated with westerns to the extent that salaries haven't risen in 15 years or so, and now it's nearly impossible to find a 12 month contract as well.

In other words, though my observation is perhaps anecdotal and somewhat subjective, I believe it's a fair point for discussion. Humor me, if you will. If not, carry on. No harm done.

Edited May 8, 2013 by aTomsLife

[aTomsLife]

We are as important as a piss in Mississippi !

Not a question of significance, but of presence.

[AnotherOneAmerican]

Most of my compatriots, those expat Americans without a Thai family, have relocated to the Philippines, a few to Mexico, and a few other to South America.

As far as I can see, the bubble already burst.

[soi41]

We are as important as a piss in Mississippi !

Not a question of significance, but of presence.

Exactly what she told me last night !

[kevvy]

I agree with anotherOne American there are so many leaving this country after being here for a long time . also I think there is alot coming too so it evens out

[aTomsLife]

I agree with anotherOne American there are so many leaving this country after being here for a long time . also I think there is alot coming too so it evens out

The dynamic you mention is what inspired my question: As you wrote, there are still a lot of people coming.

I'm inclined to believe, there are more coming with the intent of settling down here than there are going. Some will disagree (and if so, why?). But for those others who do agree with me, I'm curious -- does this influx of westerners represent a bubble?

[Soutpeel]

Fair question, Soutpeel. I am under that impression because of the dismal state of the economy in western countries, and constantly seeing articles about the best places to retire -- these things leading westerners to try their lot in Asia, and particularly Thailand.

Also, the teaching market is overly competitive given the pay and working conditions, in my humble opinion. Ask any teacher (despite whatever opinion of them you might have), the employment markets are saturated with westerns to the extent that salaries haven't risen in 15 years or so, and now it's nearly impossible to find a 12 month contract as well.

In other words, though my observation is perhaps anecdotal and somewhat subjective, I believe it's a fair point for discussion. Humor me, if you will. If not, carry on. No harm done.

Why are you only relating your question to people who have come from western countries...are people who come to live in Thailand from African, India, China, Korea etc not worthy of being called "expats" as well as one would suspect the number of "expats" coming to live in Thailand from these countries far exceeds the number of "white western middle aged men" and "just reached puberty westerners" on a gap year teaching English in Thailand.

So now I understand your question better...if you are referring to a bubble of "white western middle aged men" coming to live in Thailand...I dont believe this bubble exists, and if such a bubble does exist..one suspects it will burst very quickly if the Thai goverment starts introducing mandatory health insurance for alien residents in Thailand certainly in the "white western middle aged men" catagory if they come from the nanny states in the west..

[AnotherOneAmerican]

Fair question, Soutpeel. I am under that impression because of the dismal state of the economy in western countries, and constantly seeing articles about the best places to retire -- these things leading westerners to try their lot in Asia, and particularly Thailand.

Also, the teaching market is overly competitive given the pay and working conditions, in my humble opinion. Ask any teacher (despite whatever opinion of them you might have), the employment markets are saturated with westerns to the extent that salaries haven't risen in 15 years or so, and now it's nearly impossible to find a 12 month contract as well.

In other words, though my observation is perhaps anecdotal and somewhat subjective, I believe it's a fair point for discussion. Humor me, if you will. If not, carry on. No harm done.

Why are you only relating your question to people who have come from western countries...are people who come to live in Thailand from African, India, China, Korea etc not worthy of being called "expats" as well as one would suspect the number of "expats" coming to live in Thailand from these countries far exceeds the number of "white western middle aged men" and "just reached puberty westerners" on a gap year teaching English in Thailand.

So now I understand your question better...if you are referring to a bubble of "white western middle aged men" coming to live in Thailand...I dont believe this bubble exists, and if such a bubble does exist..one suspects it will burst very quickly if the Thai goverment starts introducing mandatory health insurance for alien residents in Thailand certainly in the "white western middle aged men" catagory if they come from the nanny states in the west..

I don't think there are all that many Asian foreigners that fall in the expat category.

I know a few Japanese men operating a 'mia noi' household in Thailand, but they just visit as tourists, and keep their main family and home in Japan.

China, plenty of cheap young women available in China, Thailand is usually a business or holiday trip.

It's only the western world that lacks for cheap available young women, Asian countries have plenty of their their own.

And finally, how would 'mandatory health insurance' not affect them?

Edited May 8, 2013 by AnotherOneAmerican

[aTomsLife]

Fair question, Soutpeel. I am under that impression because of the dismal state of the economy in western countries, and constantly seeing articles about the best places to retire -- these things leading westerners to try their lot in Asia, and particularly Thailand.

Also, the teaching market is overly competitive given the pay and working conditions, in my humble opinion. Ask any teacher (despite whatever opinion of them you might have), the employment markets are saturated with westerns to the extent that salaries haven't risen in 15 years or so, and now it's nearly impossible to find a 12 month contract as well.

In other words, though my observation is perhaps anecdotal and somewhat subjective, I believe it's a fair point for discussion. Humor me, if you will. If not, carry on. No harm done.

Why are you only relating your question to people who have come from western countries...are people who come to live in Thailand from African, India, China, Korea etc not worthy of being called "expats" as well as one would suspect the number of "expats" coming to live in Thailand from these countries far exceeds the number of "white western middle aged men" and "just reached puberty westerners" on a gap year teaching English in Thailand.

So now I understand your question better...if you are referring to a bubble of "white western middle aged men" coming to live in Thailand...I dont believe this bubble exists, and if such a bubble does exist..one suspects it will burst very quickly if the Thai goverment starts introducing mandatory health insurance for alien residents in Thailand certainly in the "white western middle aged men" catagory if they come from the nanny states in the west..

Tone's a bit condescending there, Soutpeel. I never questioned anyone's worthiness (watch out your Political Corectness is showing). I referenced westerners because that's who by and large occupy this website. And, as I am a western man, I'm able to speak first hand about the conditions in the west.

As for you second paragraph, thanks: you -- perhaps accidentally -- contributed to the thread in an objective manner (even if it was but an attempt at cynical humor).

Edited May 8, 2013 by aTomsLife

[BlackPuddingBertha]

"Does the ever growing number of expats in Thailand represent a long term trend or a fad?"

You answered the question yourself when you used the expression "ever-growing".

It is a long-term trend (numbers have been increasing for the last 35 years to my certain knowledge) but at some point I am fairly sure that they will start dropping, if only due to unduly high prices here.

Of course what retired expats may do will probably be completely different to what working expats may do, and rightly so. At some point I fully expect that Thailand will give most of the working expats the finger elbow whereas I expect that they will make an effort to attract retired expats for many decades to come. I would if I was in charge. Retired expats are very easy money.

[Soutpeel]

As for you second paragraph, thanks: you -- perhaps accidentally -- contributed to the thread in an objective manner (even if it was but an attempt at cynical humor).

Yes miss...am I writing out lines after class ?....now i am being very sarcastic..

[Soutpeel]

Of course what retired expats may do will probably be completely different to what working expats may do, and rightly so. At some point I fully expect that Thailand will give most of the working expats the finger elbow whereas I expect that they will make an effort to attract retired expats for many decades to come. I would if I was in charge. Retired expats are very easy money.

I personally think Thailand is going to make it harder for retiree's in the decades to come, and maybe to the point they will do away with retirement visa completely as a lot of other countries have done

[aTomsLife]

"Does the ever growing number of expats in Thailand represent a long term trend or a fad?"

You answered the question yourself when you used the expression "ever-growing".

It is a long-term trend (numbers have been increasing for the last 35 years to my certain knowledge) but at some point I am fairly sure that they will start dropping, if only due to unduly high prices here.

Of course what retired expats may do will probably be completely different to what working expats may do, and rightly so. At some point I fully expect that Thailand will give most of the working expats the finger elbow whereas I expect that they will make an effort to attract retired expats for many decades to come. I would if I was in charge. Retired expats are very easy money.

So you say I answered my own question (it will continue to grow), but you believe the numbers will drop? So you don't think it's a bubble or you do?

Also, for what it's worth, in my second sentence I wrote "seemingly ever growing" -- seemingly as in, according to the facts as one knows them. I should have included "seemingly" in my final sentence as well, so as not to confuse anyone I guess.

[aussiebebe]

I don't think it's a bubble as such, more a long-term trend. People can work online now to an extend barely conceivable ten years ago and even retirees have options afforded by the internet such as improved communication.
This may sound crazy, but what interests me the most at the moment is whether 3D printers are going to have a significant effect on global manufacturing trends in the future. I see a future in which more goods are manufactured this way and if this amounts to a 'manufacturing revolution' in somewhere like the US, then current projections about trade and the possibility of a growing Asia will be put into serious question. In this outcome I see a continuation of south-east Asian countries like Thailand remaining popular retirement destinations for future generations.

[nietzche]

Most of my compatriots, those expat Americans without a Thai family, have relocated to the Philippines, a few to Mexico, and a few other to South America.

As far as I can see, the bubble already burst.

It has always been very common for Americans to settle in Mexico or South America after retirement. The cultural differences are very small.

I love south american, especially peru and bolivia. Great places if you're an outdoor's type. Lot's of climbing, etc.

Thailand is a great place to live if you have money/income from home. But as another poster said, teaching salaries are the same today as they were 15-20 years ago. Trying to live off 30k/month is nigh on impossible.

Most teachers I have met here realize quickly that it is not a good deal, and move on to greener teaching pastures (Korea, and China), or go home.

One of my friends here set off to China and is earning double what he earned here with free apartment, utilities, and flight thrown in. The cost of living outside of the major cities in China is also considerably less than here in Thailand.

It would be the perfect place for TESOL teachers if all of their beaches weren't polluted, and the women were as attractive as their Thai counterparts.

[nietzche]

I don't think it's a bubble as such, more a long-term trend. People can work online now to an extend barely conceivable ten years ago and even retirees have options afforded by the internet such as improved communication.

This may sound crazy, but what interests me the most at the moment is whether 3D printers are going to have a significant effect on global manufacturing trends in the future. I see a future in which more goods are manufactured this way and if this amounts to a 'manufacturing revolution' in somewhere like the US, then current projections about trade and the possibility of a growing Asia will be put into serious question. In this outcome I see a continuation of south-east Asian countries like Thailand remaining popular retirement destinations for future generations.

I agree with this post. I've been researching these 3D printers on eBay, and they are quite affordable. A guy in the U.S. made a working gun from one he bought online for $8k.

I am a big hobbyist and would love to buy one of these in the future. When I was a kid I used to tinker with remote control aircraft, but always had issues precisely fabricating the wings and body, etc. Opens the door to a lot of possibilities....

[lemoncake]

i do not think there are more and more expats. Many come, just as many go.

Many come with money and dreams and leave shortly after with tails between their legs.

Thailand is NOT what it use to be and is changing daily, i think if anything you may find there are less and less expats, as those who moved to retire with little money, can no longer afford it and those with money who thought they could make more, loose.

Of course many do well here, but i believe more loose than succeed.

Met a few guys who bought commercial properties, made bars, changed to cafe's, changed to massage and eventually sold out for less than what they paid.

[Payboy]

I agree with this post. I've been researching these 3D printers on eBay, and they are quite affordable. A guy in the U.S. made a working gun from one he bought online for $8k.

I am a big hobbyist and would love to buy one of these in the future. When I was a kid I used to tinker with remote control aircraft, but always had issues precisely fabricating the wings and body, etc. Opens the door to a lot of possibilities....

I'd think that 3D printer companies would be afraid to sell their 1st printer, which could potentially be their last, considering one could use it to produce as many more clones of the original 3D printer as needed.

[guzzi850m2]

They are still building condo's/houses in large numbers in the whole Pattaya area and they are not only aimed at Thais.

Yes some expats are leaving & new arrives all the time, as late as yesterday I spoke to an Australian at the dentist and he was planning to move here on a more permanently basis.

Russian speaking people are buying a lot of condos/houses but maybe more as a holiday home and not a full time residence.

I have my family here and as long as I can get a Non-O multi entry visa fairly easy I gonna stay, for me it's generally very cheap to live here.

[rubberduck]

Thailand = World's BUBBLE-HUB !!!!

[balloon chaser]

The expat population is very tiny. It's hardly in a bubble.

[BlackPuddingBertha]

I personally think Thailand is going to make it harder for retiree's in the decades to come, and maybe to the point they will do away with retirement visa completely as a lot of other countries have done

Interesting. Why do you think they would want to do that? Retired expats are rather like long-term tourists in that they spend a lot of money that they (mostly) bring in from abroad, without having to work and so possibly take a job away from a Thai.

If I were in charge of a country I would be doing my utmost to attract as many long and short-term tourists or retired expats as I possibly could because every Baht they spend is a Baht earned by Thailand. There is no better sort of foreign person than a tourist/retiree for the balance of trade and general economic well-being of a country.

OK, one might argue that for their image abroad Thailand would prefer to have fewer partying single male tourists and more of the sedate temple-going sort of family visitor, but in practice I dont think they really care very much. Thais themselves are quite into loud drinking parties so I doubt they would be very bothered by tourists doing the same thing. Either way they all spend money and that is the bottom line. Besides which the older the tourist/expat the less likely he is to be a noisy party animal, and the more he will spend on hospital treatment and other services.

[BlackPuddingBertha]

So you say I answered my own question (it will continue to grow), but you believe the numbers will drop? So you don't think it's a bubble or you do?

I think I answered that question fairly clearly:

"It is a long-term trend (numbers have been increasing for the last 35 years to my certain knowledge) but at some point I am fairly sure that they will start dropping, if only due to unduly high prices here."

"Bubble" implies "bursting" and I dont think that this is likely to happen unless there is some dramatic unforeseen cause. The movement will probably continue to be gradual, regardless of which direction it is in.

[meom]

I personally think Thailand is going to make it harder for retiree's in the decades to come, and maybe to the point they will do away with retirement visa completely as a lot of other countries have done

Interesting. Why do you think they would want to do that? Retired expats are rather like long-term tourists in that they spend a lot of money that they (mostly) bring in from abroad, without having to work and so possibly take a job away from a Thai.

If I were in charge of a country I would be doing my utmost to attract as many long and short-term tourists or retired expats as I possibly could because every Baht they spend is a Baht earned by Thailand. There is no better sort of foreign person than a tourist/retiree for the balance of trade and general economic well-being of a country.

OK, one might argue that for their image abroad Thailand would prefer to have fewer partying single male tourists and more of the sedate temple-going sort of family visitor, but in practice I dont think they really care very much. Thais themselves are quite into loud drinking parties so I doubt they would be very bothered by tourists doing the same thing. Either way they all spend money and that is the bottom line. Besides which the older the tourist/expat the less likely he is to be a noisy party animal, and the more he will spend on hospital treatment and other services.

What makes you think that they spent a lot of money?

There’s a few that go through 200-300K a month but the majority of (western) expats seem to be penny pinching blue collar laborers that have nothing to add to Thai society and as they get older become more of a burden than a blessing.

On top of that most Thais simply don’t like us and they resent the fact that in a lot of cases our money is used to alleviate the status of lo-so Isaan girls.

Given the choice I think the Government would rather get rid of us instead of welcoming more retirees.

[true blue]

I personally think Thailand is going to make it harder for retiree's in the decades to come, and maybe to the point they will do away with retirement visa completely as a lot of other countries have done

Interesting. Why do you think they would want to do that? Retired expats are rather like long-term tourists in that they spend a lot of money that they (mostly) bring in from abroad, without having to work and so possibly take a job away from a Thai.

If I were in charge of a country I would be doing my utmost to attract as many long and short-term tourists or retired expats as I possibly could because every Baht they spend is a Baht earned by Thailand. There is no better sort of foreign person than a tourist/retiree for the balance of trade and general economic well-being of a country.

OK, one might argue that for their image abroad Thailand would prefer to have fewer partying single male tourists and more of the sedate temple-going sort of family visitor, but in practice I dont think they really care very much. Thais themselves are quite into loud drinking parties so I doubt they would be very bothered by tourists doing the same thing. Either way they all spend money and that is the bottom line. Besides which the older the tourist/expat the less likely he is to be a noisy party animal, and the more he will spend on hospital treatment and other services.

What makes you think that they spent a lot of money?

There’s a few that go through 200-300K a month but the majority of (western) expats seem to be penny pinching blue collar laborers that have nothing to add to Thai society and as they get older become more of a burden than a blessing.

On top of that most Thais simply don’t like us and they resent the fact that in a lot of cases our money is used to alleviate the status of lo-so Isaan girls.

Given the choice I think the Government would rather get rid of us instead of welcoming more retirees.

dont no what world you live in,but just this week ive just added many thousands of bht to the economy,dental work, shopping,petrol station,resturant,bars,new furniture,ladies renumeration,electric/water bill,true vision,laundry bill,pharmacy,and thats only half what most expats pay monthly here,some people really havent got a clue,propaly live in bognor regis, reading the telegraph.

[HeavyDrinker]

the majority of (western) expats seem to be penny pinching blue collar laborers that have nothing to add to Thai society and as they get older become more of a burden than a blessing.

How did you come to identify this 'majority'?

How are they be a 'burden' on Thai society?

Interesting statement. Please elaborate.

[meom]

the majority of (western) expats seem to be penny pinching blue collar laborers that have nothing to add to Thai society and as they get older become more of a burden than a blessing.

How did you come to identify this 'majority'?

How are they be a 'burden' on Thai society?

Interesting statement. Please elaborate.

I took a sample at my local pub

Just look at the Thai healthcare system.

They seem to be stretched as it is and I’m not sure they are able or willing to cope with an additional influx of elder (foreign) retirees that will require

health care sometime in the future.