Rising Baht Could Trigger Crisis: Thaksin

[givenall]

I guess it means will cost him more from his foreign funds to pay the taxi and tuk tuk supporters

Sent from my ST18a using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Wombat6]

Why isn't this guy giving advice to help his adopted country (Montenegro /??)

If he is so concerned ,then perhaps he should return, do his time and then become a consultant...otherwise...butt out !!

[whybother]

chiangmaikelly, on 18 May 2013 - 16:00, said:

I read the OP again and I cannot find any mention of PTP supporters. Are you sure you saw it in the OP? I can't find anywhere that PTP supporters are mentioned or they say the economy is going great guns. Maybe you should start a thread about it.

Huh? You're not allowed to introduce related opinions to a thread? I'll remember that when you start quoting Bloomberg.

[whybother]

Nobody is saying that Thaksin is particularly unique in Thailand in the way he has used his leverage and connections to get where he is, what was being contested was the idea of Thaksin as being some sort of business genius / guru whose every utterance on matters of the economy must be listened to.

You need to look not simply at what someone has achieved, but how they have achieved it.

And how would looking at how he achieved it help me understand that the rising baht could trigger a crisis?

.

Looking at Thaksin's history shows how much credence you should take to anything he says. Will the rising baht trigger a crisis?

[rixalex]

Nobody is saying that Thaksin is particularly unique in Thailand in the way he has used his leverage and connections to get where he is, what was being contested was the idea of Thaksin as being some sort of business genius / guru whose every utterance on matters of the economy must be listened to.

You need to look not simply at what someone has achieved, but how they have achieved it.

And how would looking at how he achieved it help me understand that the rising baht could trigger a crisis?

Funny how whenever somebody posts something negative about Thaksin on any given thread, you suddenly become an absolute stickler for sticking rigidly to a very narrow and extremely specific discussion of what you determine the thread is solely about, but whenever it is something positive said about him, (as the post below demonstrates - the one that initiated this discussion about what Thaksin's actual business skills might be) not only do you not jump in and chastise the poster for veering off topic, but you actually click approval of said post by clicking the "like" box.

Whatever he says business wise, i would tend to listen. For all his faults, as a business man he blows everyone out of the water when it comes to investment decisions and getting things done. Its one of the reasons he is voted in by big business, he actually gets things done rather than procrastinate for 4 years.

Why did you not ask smutcakes how Thaksin blowing everyone out of water could possibly help you understand anything about the rising baht triggering a crisis?

Edited May 18, 2013 by rixalex

[market trader]

Lets make one thing clear...DONT LISTEN TO THAT MAN

Don't ever say that to a Thai where I live in Chiang Mai. First is the king and second is Mr. Thaksin.

[bigbamboo]

The man is a crook and bad for Thailand. Why is he given a platform ?

Because love or hate him he is running the country's government and he won't go away.

[dru2]

Lets make one thing clear...DONT LISTEN TO THAT MAN

Don't ever say that to a Thai where I live in Chiang Mai. First is the king and second is Mr. Thaksin.

Actually, no. I have lived in Chiang Mai for 25 years and among my Thai friends and local village neighbours I'd put it at about 70 percent pro (n)ai Thaksin, 30 percent against...

[bigbamboo]

Nobody is saying that Thaksin is particularly unique in Thailand in the way he has used his leverage and connections to get where he is, what was being contested was the idea of Thaksin as being some sort of business genius / guru whose every utterance on matters of the economy must be listened to.

You need to look not simply at what someone has achieved, but how they have achieved it.

And how would looking at how he achieved it help me understand that the rising baht could trigger a crisis?

Funny how whenever somebody posts something negative about Thaksin on any given thread, you suddenly become an absolute stickler for sticking rigidly to a very narrow and extremely specific discussion of what you determine the thread is solely about, but whenever it is something positive said about him, (as the post below demonstrates - the one that initiated this discussion about what Thaksin's actual business skills might be) not only do you not jump in and chastise the poster for veering off topic, but you actually click approval of said post by clicking the "like" box.

>Whatever he says business wise, i would tend to listen. For all his faults, as a business man he blows everyone out of the water when it comes to investment decisions and getting things done. Its one of the reasons he is voted in by big business, he actually gets things done rather than procrastinate for 4 years.

Why did you not ask smutcakes how Thaksin blowing everyone out of water could possibly help you understand anything about the rising baht triggering a crisis?

Blowing everyone out of the water? Oh, you mean creating a monopoly.

Certainly worked with that Burmese telecom deal. Nice.

[Arkady]

HIs homecoming could trigger a worse crisis even faster than a strong baht.

[MaxYakov]

It seems to be on a slight upward ramp. A few more beers and I should be able to confirm that!

THB_USD_Prev_2_Weeks_051713.jpeg

http://www.exchange-rates.org/history/THB/USD/T

I'd have thought that was a slight downward trend (more Baht to buy 1US$). Have another beer & correct me if I'm wrong.

And from the other side of the beer bottle, one dollar buys more baht.

Yep, (hic) that's thhhe shide (I shink) ...

Edited May 18, 2013 by MaxYakov

[Ulic]

Just because the guy is a crook does not make him wrong. Japan is effectively bankrupt but the yen was strengthening before the most

recent dip. The yen flows to the baht to take advantage of the interest rate difference thus strengthening the baht. Crazy rice

subsidy scheme that is not on the books as a loss until the rice is sold so no losses yet. The banks have old apartment buildings

that have to be torn down from the 97 crisis. They to have not been written down/off on the banks books. Reminds me of World Com

before there bankruptcy. They kept 15 year old vehicles on the books as assets valued at there purchase price. I don't know when the

shit is going to his the fan but it is. Buy lowering the interest rate Thailand would save money on interest payments, reduce the value

of the baht to help the export business. Thailand does not have an unemployment problem. I am no economist but I see any unemployment

figure expressed as a number not a percent because it is so low. Not sure what is going to happen but it will be interesting.

Winners and losers. Those with the big bucks will make off like bandits and everyone else will struggle. Many on this board have forgotten

more than I will ever know about history/economics/business in Thailand. I will follow what happens over the next six months to six years with interest.

[yoshiwara]

Just because the guy is a crook does not make him wrong.

That has to be the star quote of the week.

[Rama]

Japan's holistic approach???? One of the most indebted nations in the world that has been suffering from a stagnant economy for decades???? Give me a break!!!

Blame the central bank, not the other Shiniwatra who he's been advising.........................

[bigbamboo]

Just because the guy is a crook does not make him wrong. Japan is effectively bankrupt but the yen was strengthening before the most

recent dip. The yen flows to the baht to take advantage of the interest rate difference thus strengthening the baht. Crazy rice

subsidy scheme that is not on the books as a loss until the rice is sold so no losses yet. The banks have old apartment buildings

that have to be torn down from the 97 crisis. They to have not been written down/off on the banks books. Reminds me of World Com

before there bankruptcy. They kept 15 year old vehicles on the books as assets valued at there purchase price. I don't know when the

shit is going to his the fan but it is. Buy lowering the interest rate Thailand would save money on interest payments, reduce the value

of the baht to help the export business. Thailand does not have an unemployment problem. I am no economist but I see any unemployment

figure expressed as a number not a percent because it is so low. Not sure what is going to happen but it will be interesting.

Winners and losers. Those with the big bucks will make off like bandits and everyone else will struggle. Many on this board have forgotten

more than I will ever know about history/economics/business in Thailand. I will follow what happens over the next six months to six years with interest.

Thailand does not have unemployment.

They have inactive posts.

[metisdead]

Posts headed in an off topic direction have been removed.

[SICHONSTEVE]

Whatever he says business wise, i would tend to listen. For all his faults, as a business man he blows everyone out of the water when it comes to investment decisions and getting things done. Its one of the reasons he is voted in by big business, he actually gets things done rather than procrastinate for 4 years.

Yeh!!!

They are all done to benefit HIS empire and not Thailand.

If he is so adept at business (as you imply) then why not stay in business and keep out of politics as he is an absolute jerk, with duff policies that never work - better still, just stay out of Thailand and everyone (except for Yingluck and the uneducated red shirt thugs) will be happy and the LOS will be a lot more peaceful in the future!!!

[Thai at Heart]

Whatever he says business wise, i would tend to listen. For all his faults, as a business man he blows everyone out of the water when it comes to investment decisions and getting things done. Its one of the reasons he is voted in by big business, he actually gets things done rather than procrastinate for 4 years.

Yeh!!!

They are all done to benefit HIS empire and not Thailand.

If he is so adept at business (as you imply) then why not stay in business and keep out of politics as he is an absolute jerk, with duff policies that never work - better still, just stay out of Thailand and everyone (except for Yingluck and the uneducated red shirt thugs) will be happy and the LOS will be a lot more peaceful in the future!!!

Because the one and only protected industry that got screwed by the 97 crash was his. All of a sudden his monopoly was gone.

Payback is half the reason he got into politics.

[khunken]

Just because the guy is a crook does not make him wrong. Japan is effectively bankrupt but the yen was strengthening before the most

recent dip. The yen flows to the baht to take advantage of the interest rate difference thus strengthening the baht. Crazy rice

subsidy scheme that is not on the books as a loss until the rice is sold so no losses yet. The banks have old apartment buildings

that have to be torn down from the 97 crisis. They to have not been written down/off on the banks books. Reminds me of World Com

before there bankruptcy. They kept 15 year old vehicles on the books as assets valued at there purchase price. I don't know when the

shit is going to his the fan but it is. Buy lowering the interest rate Thailand would save money on interest payments, reduce the value

of the baht to help the export business. Thailand does not have an unemployment problem. I am no economist but I see any unemployment

figure expressed as a number not a percent because it is so low. Not sure what is going to happen but it will be interesting.

Winners and losers. Those with the big bucks will make off like bandits and everyone else will struggle. Many on this board have forgotten

more than I will ever know about history/economics/business in Thailand. I will follow what happens over the next six months to six years with interest.

While I agree that crooks are not necessarily wrong. this one is on more than one count.

Wrong is his dislike (maybe hatred) of independent bodies such a the BOT & one of his cronies (Kittirat) has been doing his best to tell the BOT what to do.

Wrong in that the 'rising' Baht could trigger a crisis. The real trigger is his constant pushing for an amnesty & if he gets it, crisis will be too mild a term to describe the outcome.

Wrong in using the word 'rising'. The Baht has (see Max Yakov's first post) stabilised in the high 29's quite a bit lower than the 28.50 or so that it reached at it's recent peak.

Your comments about the rice sales are incorrect. Last year - before the surge in the Baht - the government had a poor result in the quantity sold. That was entirely because the subsidy took the price above international market prices & they had to resort to G-t-G sales which hid the actual price they received. Loss of money & loss of face.

The Thai banks are not carrying much in the way of non-paying loans (read their annual reports) & virtually none relate to the 1997 crash. Most of those bad loans are in the FIDF debt of B1.14tn which the PTP swept under the BOT's carpet last year.

Yes, a high Baht hurts exports, but it is questionable whether the current rate is too high and exports are not a major part of the Thai economy (see other thread - Korn's comments).

Most of the speculative funds that have arrived are invested in Government Bonds. The SET is approaching a speculative bubble mainly because of local investors & institutions.

The BOT is more than capable of managing the exchange rate. It works for the country, unlike Thaksin who always puts his own wealth first.

Edited May 19, 2013 by khunken

[SICHONSTEVE]

Whatever he says business wise, i would tend to listen. For all his faults, as a business man he blows everyone out of the water when it comes to investment decisions and getting things done. Its one of the reasons he is voted in by big business, he actually gets things done rather than procrastinate for 4 years.

Yeh!!!

They are all done to benefit HIS empire and not Thailand.

If he is so adept at business (as you imply) then why not stay in business and keep out of politics as he is an absolute jerk, with duff policies that never work - better still, just stay out of Thailand and everyone (except for Yingluck and the uneducated red shirt thugs) will be happy and the LOS will be a lot more peaceful in the future!!!

Because the one and only protected industry that got screwed by the 97 crash was his. All of a sudden his monopoly was gone.

Payback is half the reason he got into politics.

Spot on!!

[finnomick1]

HE who must be obeyed has spoken so now there will be some action taken even if it's just to make matters worse.

I suppose this'll lead to yet another crackdown........