Set Index And Thai Mutual Funds

[yoshiwara]

I'm also looking forward to parking a chunk of my portfolio into dividend paying blue chip (US) stocks and leaving it there till retirement (15-20years ) to accumulate. At the moment I have cash savings that I just don't have time to manage once I have managed my Thai portfolio.

Investing in decent dividend paying blue chips is IMHO the simplest and most straightforward way to go with self-investing.

[isawasnake]

First.... great thread! Very much appreciate the info.

I have been interested in getting more of my savings and income into the Thai market after just purchasing a Bangkok Bank LTF for tax purposes.

I am now looking for a fund to put the majority of my monthly deposits in; I think I will let the BBK Bank LTF just sit as it is and serve its purpose.

Funds that have intrigued (forgive my lack of concision):

-Aberdeen Growth Fund

-Aberdeen Small Cap

-Bualuang Top Ten Fund

-Bualuang Thanakom

-Bualuang Infastructure

-The previously mentioned KTAM World Metals and Mining Fund

I am mainly looking to grow my accounts over the long haul. Any thoughts or advice on those funds, or others, for a novice investor?

I was also wondering if folks have had success in negotiating down some of the fees on the Thai funds.

Edited October 25, 2013 by isawasnake

[BlackJack]

it is possible that once the 2 trillion baht infrastructure fund gets the green light that the top 10 will get a boost

think cement steel fuel

i like AOT as if the numbers of arrivals are correct and with the hike in fees and opening up Don Muang to more traffic it should do well

also AIS as everwhere i look there are smart phones and AIS is working on a e-money system

AIS have the most market share as well

[Naam]

the yada two yakety trillion yak infrastructure investment will be spread over a period of up to 20 years. that means initially the peanuts amount or perhaps 10-12 billion US-Dollars and in subsequent years ~5 billion US-Dollars p.a.

Thailand's budget for 2013 is USD 77 billions.

compare and keep on having sweet dreams!

[yoshiwara]

it is possible that once the 2 trillion baht infrastructure fund gets the green light that the top 10 will get a boost

think cement steel fuel

i like AOT as if the numbers of arrivals are correct and with the hike in fees and opening up Don Muang to more traffic it should do well

also AIS as everwhere i look there are smart phones and AIS is working on a e-money system

AIS have the most market share as well

I think we have to acknowledge that many people do not trust their own judgement in selecting individual stocks and are prepared to pay for the management expertise in doing so.

Yes I know that then they are faced with which fund to go with, but with a little gritting of the teeth and sticking to blue-chip companies eg Aberdeen and Hargreaves Lansdown they will do OK.

Those of us who play with individual stocks are in a different paddling pool and not everybody wants to deal with the conflicting advice coming every which way at them.

[BlackJack]

the yada two yakety trillion yak infrastructure investment will be spread over a period of up to 20 years. that means initially the peanuts amount or perhaps 10-12 billion US-Dollars and in subsequent years ~5 billion US-Dollars p.a.

Thailand's budget for 2013 is USD 77 billions.

compare and keep on having sweet dreams!

Buy on the dream and sell on the facts

[Naam]

the yada two yakety trillion yak infrastructure investment will be spread over a period of up to 20 years. that means initially the peanuts amount or perhaps 10-12 billion US-Dollars and in subsequent years ~5 billion US-Dollars p.a.

Thailand's budget for 2013 is USD 77 billions.

compare and keep on having sweet dreams!

Buy on the dream and sell on the facts

touché! a valid point.

[Lancelot]

First.... great thread! Very much appreciate the info.

I have been interested in getting more of my savings and income into the Thai market after just purchasing a Bangkok Bank LTF for tax purposes.

I am now looking for a fund to put the majority of my monthly deposits in; I think I will let the BBK Bank LTF just sit as it is and serve its purpose.

Funds that have intrigued (forgive my lack of concision):

-Aberdeen Growth Fund

-Aberdeen Small Cap

-Bualuang Top Ten Fund

-Bualuang Thanakom

-Bualuang Infastructure

-The previously mentioned KTAM World Metals and Mining Fund

I am mainly looking to grow my accounts over the long haul. Any thoughts or advice on those funds, or others, for a novice investor?

I was also wondering if folks have had success in negotiating down some of the fees on the Thai funds.

I have never invested directly in Thai stocks or bonds; the relatively high fees, among other reasons, have always put me off.

High fees have steered me away from some US investment products as well

[isawasnake]

First.... great thread! Very much appreciate the info.

I have been interested in getting more of my savings and income into the Thai market after just purchasing a Bangkok Bank LTF for tax purposes.

I am now looking for a fund to put the majority of my monthly deposits in; I think I will let the BBK Bank LTF just sit as it is and serve its purpose.

Funds that have intrigued (forgive my lack of concision):

-Aberdeen Growth Fund

-Aberdeen Small Cap

-Bualuang Top Ten Fund

-Bualuang Thanakom

-Bualuang Infastructure

-The previously mentioned KTAM World Metals and Mining Fund

I am mainly looking to grow my accounts over the long haul. Any thoughts or advice on those funds, or others, for a novice investor?

I was also wondering if folks have had success in negotiating down some of the fees on the Thai funds.

I have never invested directly in Thai stocks or bonds; the relatively high fees, among other reasons, have always put me off.

High fees have steered me away from some US investment products as well

Thanks for the response. I have noticed that there is no capital gains tax however, which would at least help alleviate your concerns. I know it does mine. I do share your concern however.

After researching for about a month now, I am convinced the fees charged for the general mutual fund in Thailand are worth it (for me at least, but that wont stop me from trying to get them down if possible ). There seem to be indications in some research that emerging markets are better suited to fund manager performance (at least when they are good managers). It certainly seems to be the case if you look at some of the mutual fund performance from Aberdeen and Bangkok Bank, among others. For me, being a novice investor, I am willing to pay that premium for a fund, as it seems these managers do know how to handle the Thai market well. Certainly better than I ever could. Further, if you work here, the tax benefit on the LTF's helps mitigate the fees. I was just wondering if the fees were generally negotiable. Definitely worth a try no doubt.

To get back to your comment, at this point I feel that I can't afford not to invest, even with the fees.

[BlackJack]

First.... great thread! Very much appreciate the info.

I have been interested in getting more of my savings and income into the Thai market after just purchasing a Bangkok Bank LTF for tax purposes.

I am now looking for a fund to put the majority of my monthly deposits in; I think I will let the BBK Bank LTF just sit as it is and serve its purpose.

Funds that have intrigued (forgive my lack of concision):

-Aberdeen Growth Fund

-Aberdeen Small Cap

-Bualuang Top Ten Fund

-Bualuang Thanakom

-Bualuang Infastructure

-The previously mentioned KTAM World Metals and Mining Fund

I am mainly looking to grow my accounts over the long haul. Any thoughts or advice on those funds, or others, for a novice investor?

I was also wondering if folks have had success in negotiating down some of the fees on the Thai funds.

I have never invested directly in Thai stocks or bonds; the relatively high fees, among other reasons, have always put me off.

High fees have steered me away from some US investment products as well

Thanks for the response. I have noticed that there is no capital gains tax however, which would at least help alleviate your concerns. I know it does mine. I do share your concern however.

After researching for about a month now, I am convinced the fees charged for the general mutual fund in Thailand are worth it (for me at least, but that wont stop me from trying to get them down if possible ). There seem to be indications in some research that emerging markets are better suited to fund manager performance (at least when they are good managers). It certainly seems to be the case if you look at some of the mutual fund performance from Aberdeen and Bangkok Bank, among others. For me, being a novice investor, I am willing to pay that premium for a fund, as it seems these managers do know how to handle the Thai market well. Certainly better than I ever could. Further, if you work here, the tax benefit on the LTF's helps mitigate the fees. I was just wondering if the fees were generally negotiable. Definitely worth a try no doubt.

To get back to your comment, at this point I feel that I can't afford not to invest, even with the fees.

suggest you look here and pull this list for returns to date

seems the health funds are doing well

http://tools.morningstarthailand.com/th/fundquickrank/default.aspx?Site=th&LanguageId=en-TH

[fletchsmile]

For those looking for a little extra yield on their THB cash but not wanting equity risk, CPALL (7-11/Makro Group) have a debenture issue open 28-30 Oct.

http://www.cpall.co.th/Corporate/invest-in-cp-all

3 Year: 4.1%

5 Year: 4.7%

7 Year: 5.1%

10 Yr: 5.35%

In multiples of THB 100k. Interest paid semi-annually.

Cheers

Fletch

tradeable or maturity only Fletch?

I don't think it's tradable electronically on BEX. When I looked at an earlier doc pre-the prospectus, it was talking of the liquidity risk - need to sell via banks or securities houses, with it being a retail offer.

My plan was to hold to maturity, but knowing in the unlikely event I might want to sell, I could probably do so thru a bank, and paying a premium to exit.

Cheers

Fletch

[fletchsmile]

it is possible that once the 2 trillion baht infrastructure fund gets the green light that the top 10 will get a boost

think cement steel fuel

i like AOT as if the numbers of arrivals are correct and with the hike in fees and opening up Don Muang to more traffic it should do well

also AIS as everwhere i look there are smart phones and AIS is working on a e-money system

AIS have the most market share as well

I think we have to acknowledge that many people do not trust their own judgement in selecting individual stocks and are prepared to pay for the management expertise in doing so.

Yes I know that then they are faced with which fund to go with, but with a little gritting of the teeth and sticking to blue-chip companies eg Aberdeen and Hargreaves Lansdown they will do OK.

Those of us who play with individual stocks are in a different paddling pool and not everybody wants to deal with the conflicting advice coming every which way at them.

For me it's horses for courses. On US, Canadian, Australian, Singaporean and UK exchanges I'm comfortable with buying individual stocks. Certain markets, eg Thailand, Korean, Vietnam and emerging/frontier markets I prefer the mutual fund route

[fletchsmile]

First.... great thread! Very much appreciate the info.

I have been interested in getting more of my savings and income into the Thai market after just purchasing a Bangkok Bank LTF for tax purposes.

I am now looking for a fund to put the majority of my monthly deposits in; I think I will let the BBK Bank LTF just sit as it is and serve its purpose.

Funds that have intrigued (forgive my lack of concision):

-Aberdeen Growth Fund

-Aberdeen Small Cap

-Bualuang Top Ten Fund

-Bualuang Thanakom

-Bualuang Infastructure

-The previously mentioned KTAM World Metals and Mining Fund

I am mainly looking to grow my accounts over the long haul. Any thoughts or advice on those funds, or others, for a novice investor?

I was also wondering if folks have had success in negotiating down some of the fees on the Thai funds.

I have never invested directly in Thai stocks or bonds; the relatively high fees, among other reasons, have always put me off.

High fees have steered me away from some US investment products as well

Not sure where you get the idea from that investing in Thai stocks has to have high fees.

You can invest directly in Thai stocks as you mention and pay around 0.1% to 0.2% in commission - depending on your deal size.

Sure mutual funds have higher fees than that - average about 1% - 1.5% entry and about 1.75% all in annual fees - that's hardly expensive though, when you consider most foreigners don't have the detailed company knowledge or time in Thailand.

To Isawasnake

No you won't be able to negotiate the fees on Thai mutual funds. 1% - 1.5% is pretty standard. Occasionally there are promotions on certain funds. Fees may be lower on ETFs, but in Thailand I prefer active managed funds.

Cheers

Fletch

[isawasnake]

First.... great thread! Very much appreciate the info.

I have been interested in getting more of my savings and income into the Thai market after just purchasing a Bangkok Bank LTF for tax purposes.

I am now looking for a fund to put the majority of my monthly deposits in; I think I will let the BBK Bank LTF just sit as it is and serve its purpose.

Funds that have intrigued (forgive my lack of concision):

-Aberdeen Growth Fund

-Aberdeen Small Cap

-Bualuang Top Ten Fund

-Bualuang Thanakom

-Bualuang Infastructure

-The previously mentioned KTAM World Metals and Mining Fund

I am mainly looking to grow my accounts over the long haul. Any thoughts or advice on those funds, or others, for a novice investor?

I was also wondering if folks have had success in negotiating down some of the fees on the Thai funds.

I have never invested directly in Thai stocks or bonds; the relatively high fees, among other reasons, have always put me off.

High fees have steered me away from some US investment products as well

Not sure where you get the idea from that investing in Thai stocks has to have high fees.

You can invest directly in Thai stocks as you mention and pay around 0.1% to 0.2% in commission - depending on your deal size.

Sure mutual funds have higher fees than that - average about 1% - 1.5% entry and about 1.75% all in annual fees - that's hardly expensive though, when you consider most foreigners don't have the detailed company knowledge or time in Thailand.

To Isawasnake

No you won't be able to negotiate the fees on Thai mutual funds. 1% - 1.5% is pretty standard. Occasionally there are promotions on certain funds. Fees may be lower on ETFs, but in Thailand I prefer active managed funds.

Cheers

Fletch

Thanks.

Decent buying opportunities coming with this amnesty bill haggling? I think the SET was one of the only markets down today.

[BlackJack]

me thinks theres a reading today and then Friday

if it passes there will be unreast

unrest will be reflected in the markets

things will go down more

then there will be a great buying op

yadda yadda

[fletchsmile]

ouch!

Co-Op 13%.jpg

Not good if you were already holding but that is what made it more interesting for Fletch to take a punt.....will be interesting to see any movement today following that Sunday Telegraph article.

i don't expect much movement. the bad news were availble since days.

Yes, I think a lot of the bad news is built in - hence the buying in the Co-op's "half price sale"

I'm looking for 7% as a budgeted long term return rate for my overall investment portfolio, and as you highlight that sort of yield isn't easy to find outside long term equity holdings. This one has the added bonus of being non-callable. The 5.555% sub perp bond also yield double digits, but are callable - the interesting thing there is that the coupon if I remember rightly resets and would provide some hedge vs infation/ rising rates in future if not called. So I prefered the higher non-callable yield on the 13%.

I'd be interested in THB fixed income but the yields are poor - around 3.5% on 10 year sovereign, and 4% on 20 year sovereign. With local Thai corporates you're lucky to get more than a couple of hundred basis points above those for investment grade. Hardly attractive.

All this QE and low interest rates is really driving a TINA ("there is no alternative") mentality around the world and pushing people into equities or high yield bonds - as cash, gov bonds, and gold don't look attractive at the moment. When globally things pick up, and interest rates start to move up as well, gov bonds and gold will look even worse!

Fletch

For those interested in the Co-op bonds, the details of the new bank re-capitalisation plan are out

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/summary/company-summary.html?fourWayKey=GB0002224516GBGBXSSQ3

After being severely disappointed in the UK government and regulators as well as the Co-op Group, I'm glad someone with commercial sense has come in with an alternative.

On a moral level I also objected to the Co-op Group retaining control of the group with their equity holding and forcing the bond holders to take heavy hits. I mean, how can a group that f***ks up expect the bondholders to take hits and then say they will stay in charge with a majority stake to keep f***ing up That's just plain wrong. The new deal means Co-op group will control only about 30% of the equity afterwards which is more equitable.

For the option I'd select on re-capitalisaton if it comes thru, based on my original investment costs:

I'd have a yield to maturity of about 9.5% on the subordinate bonds, compared to a yield of about 15% when I bought in. So can't really complain too much. Using my original cost as a base I receive about 10% interest per annum for 12 years on original investment, with a 9% loss on capital at the end (under 1% pa). All in all not bad.

For the perp shares it works out 8.04% YTM compare to 13% when I first bought in.

If I sold today I'd be about square. But given I was looking for 7% as a long term return, both still make the hurdle rate - nice bit of income above that if all goes well. So all in all an interesting ride so far. I knew they were speculative after halving in price, which is why I took a punt, and was prepared to take losses in return for higher returns. The current yields on my original investment make it worth to keep holding: can't grumble too much at 8.04% YTM and 9.5% YTM

Cheers

Fletch

Edited November 5, 2013 by fletchsmile

[fletchsmile]

BTW: Looking back on the earlier comment on the THB fixed income we took some CP All debentures paying 4.1% for 3 years - not great, but a reasonable spread over gov bonds I mentioned at the time (with of course extra credit risk).

Plus rates better than THB cash rates, which I don't see as reaching an annualised 4.1% for the next 3 years.

As an indication on cash, a few days ago I put some money in THB account earning an average of around 3% p.a. for the next 6 months to use for my Visa. I don't see any significant THB policy rates increases in the near future. Rates on the acc were step-ups: 2.5% for first 3 months 2.75% next 2 months, 5% final month, so 3% average. Restricted to 2 withdrawals per month, but given it's for Visa purposes I won't be touching it anyway.

[topt]

BTW: Looking back on the earlier comment on the THB fixed income we took some CP All debentures paying 4.1% for 3 years - not great, but a reasonable spread over gov bonds I mentioned at the time (with of course extra credit risk).

Plus rates better than THB cash rates, which I don't see as reaching an annualised 4.1% for the next 3 years.

As an indication on cash, a few days ago I put some money in THB account earning an average of around 3% p.a. for the next 6 months to use for my Visa. I don't see any significant THB policy rates increases in the near future. Rates on the acc were step-ups: 2.5% for first 3 months 2.75% next 2 months, 5% final month, so 3% average. Restricted to 2 withdrawals per month, but given it's for Visa purposes I won't be touching it anyway.

Glad the Co Op bonds seem to be working out ok and that your punt seems to have paid off

I really thought Co Op holders were going to get scalped and interesting to compare the returns with the Thai returns above to highlight risk vs. reward.

[isawasnake]

I have a decent chunk of cash right now I am looking to get into a mutual fund. What does the smart money out there say that this little funk were are in now will come to an end? 1300, 1275?????? I was thinking this morning, if I see 1315, I will put it in. I guess it does not matter too terribly much since I am thinking long term anyway, but buying lower can never hurt

[paddyjenkins]

I have a decent chunk of cash right now I am looking to get into a mutual fund. What does the smart money out there say that this little funk were are in now will come to an end? 1300, 1275?????? I was thinking this morning, if I see 1315, I will put it in. I guess it does not matter too terribly much since I am thinking long term anyway, but buying lower can never hurt

You asked for the smart money view, i cant help there but i still have a view for what its worth....Seems like this situation could get worse before it gets better...with protestors occupying government offices we could see police or army confrontation. Confrontation and uncertainty will cause investors even more uncertainty and some will sell....so my view is to wait for a bit longer before buying...don't know how much more, just wait and watch...

[up-country_sinclair]

Who knows what will happen in the days and weeks ahead, but IMO the SET has been remarkably resilient thus far.

[JSixpack]

I have a decent chunk of cash right now I am looking to get into a mutual fund. What does the smart money out there say that this little funk were are in now will come to an end? 1300, 1275?????? I was thinking this morning, if I see 1315, I will put it in. I guess it does not matter too terribly much since I am thinking long term anyway, but buying lower can never hurt

Nobody knows, as up-country_sinclair says. Better to get in a little late rather than too soon. There's no sure thing, but you might wait until the SET crosses above a 50-day MA at the least or even a 200-day MA.

Who knows what will happen in the days and weeks ahead, but IMO the SET has been remarkably resilient thus far.

Agreed. Amazing Thailand.

[up-country_sinclair]

Protestors are taking over government offices (including the Ministry of Finance) and the SET is up nearly 1% today (as of 15:00).

[brit1984]

anyone know where to find forward looking (FY1) market P/E for the SET (and MAI) index?

if not, any estimate for aggregate year-on-year profit growth? (so i can back-calculate forward P/E from trailing P/E)

[isawasnake]

I have a decent chunk of cash right now I am looking to get into a mutual fund. What does the smart money out there say that this little funk were are in now will come to an end? 1300, 1275?????? I was thinking this morning, if I see 1315, I will put it in. I guess it does not matter too terribly much since I am thinking long term anyway, but buying lower can never hurt

Nobody knows, as up-country_sinclair says. Better to get in a little late rather than too soon. There's no sure thing, but you might wait until the SET crosses above a 50-day MA at the least or even a 200-day MA.

Who knows what will happen in the days and weeks ahead, but IMO the SET has been remarkably resilient thus far.

Agreed. Amazing Thailand.

Thanks to all. My thoughts at this point are:

Very much agree on the set being pretty robust amidst local turmoil. Although it may still be too early to say, I think the stability of the set today was a strong indicator of this. We also know that the markets have not been affected by local tensions, as much as they could have been, in the past.

I was looking at some month to month set data for the past 6 years. The set has not gone down from the end of November to the end of December in the past 6 years. The OP has mentioned to me that December is a statistically strong month. It is nice to get that little extra boost, however small, perhaps partly as a result of local RMF/LTF "tax break funds" rolling in? Thais seem to love to put those in during the last minutes, an observations based on the timing of the advertising campaigns I have seen on the BTS and around Bangkok.

Considering all this, I'll probably put my "chunk" in tomorrow, whether the market goes up or down -- but I will put it in this week for sure.

Relating to this conversation, here is an overlay of protest and other political activity and its potential effects on the SET. That is via Bangkok Post. I thought it was an interesting graphic anyway....

Edited November 26, 2013 by isawasnake

[fletchsmile]

anyone know where to find forward looking (FY1) market P/E for the SET (and MAI) index?

if not, any estimate for aggregate year-on-year profit growth? (so i can back-calculate forward P/E from trailing P/E)

Just posted a few links on your thread, to the broker I use KGI. I like their research. For anyone else interested in the SET it's worth a few clicks around their research website

http://www.kgieworld.co.th/en/research/research-paper.asp?page=2&viewsrh=MarketOutlook

Cheers

Fletch:)

[fletchsmile]

I have a decent chunk of cash right now I am looking to get into a mutual fund. What does the smart money out there say that this little funk were are in now will come to an end? 1300, 1275?????? I was thinking this morning, if I see 1315, I will put it in. I guess it does not matter too terribly much since I am thinking long term anyway, but buying lower can never hurt

Nobody knows, as up-country_sinclair says. Better to get in a little late rather than too soon. There's no sure thing, but you might wait until the SET crosses above a 50-day MA at the least or even a 200-day MA.

Who knows what will happen in the days and weeks ahead, but IMO the SET has been remarkably resilient thus far.

Agreed. Amazing Thailand.

Thanks to all. My thoughts at this point are:

Very much agree on the set being pretty robust amidst local turmoil. Although it may still be too early to say, I think the stability of the set today was a strong indicator of this. We also know that the markets have not been affected by local tensions, as much as they could have been, in the past.

I was looking at some month to month set data for the past 6 years. The set has not gone down from the end of November to the end of December in the past 6 years. The OP has mentioned to me that December is a statistically strong month. It is nice to get that little extra boost, however small, perhaps partly as a result of local RMF/LTF "tax break funds" rolling in? Thais seem to love to put those in during the last minutes, an observations based on the timing of the advertising campaigns I have seen on the BTS and around Bangkok.

Considering all this, I'll probably put my "chunk" in tomorrow, whether the market goes up or down -- but I will put it in this week for sure.

Relating to this conversation, here is an overlay of protest and other political activity and its potential effects on the SET. That is via Bangkok Post. I thought it was an interesting graphic anyway....

Over the mid-longer term the Thai markets and economy seem to just plough on despite how often the politicians and leaders shoot themselves in the foot

If you're looking long term, I'd stick with the baht cost averaging, and spread funds.

Statistically as you say the markets in Thailand rise much more often than not in December - so if you're looking for a month then worth bearing in mind.

If you're timing the Thai market, that's always very difficult, which is why I like averaging, and the last few months bear out that approach. That said, I think there's probably a bit lower to go yet based on the uncertainties still in play, but wouldn't surprise me for things to start picking up soon.

Cheers Fletch

[up-country_sinclair]

Not an auspicious start to the new year: Down 5% to 1230. From what I can see the next support levels are near1200 and then at about 1140. After that, look out below.

[paddyjenkins]

Not an auspicious start to the new year: Down 5% to 1230. From what I can see the next support levels are near1200 and then at about 1140. After that, look out below.

Seems to me thai stocks broke support a few days go and now have much further to fall. A few months ago sentiment was its just a dip to buy into, a few weeks ago the sentiment was that investors are used to trouble in thailand and the market always bounces straight back. So many investors added to positions. Now support has been broken all of the mindless optimism should turn to anger and panic. The trouble in thailand may be worse than before, the prospect of further instability, even civil war, is beginning to cause thai stock holders to think again...the news headlines literally sending a shudder down their spines. And once the stampede to get out starts in this illiquid market the only direction will be down.

[fletchsmile]

So for year 2013 the SET was down 6.7%. The index was down 10% in the last 2 months pulling it back into negative territory for the year. Even December - a historically good month based on the stats - was down over 5%.

December 2013 will be remembered for Suthep's rallies rather than Santa's

Politics is always something lurking at least in the background in Thailand if not the foreground, and one of the ways the country regularly shoots itself in the foot. Fortunately in the longer term the economics come back regardless. Again a good reminder of the difficulty in timing the Thai market - a difficult and often unpredictable market to trade/time, whereas in my view the long term investment story remains intact.

I'm happy to say my Thai funds held in Thailand fared a bit better with a small overall positive return:

- Aberdeen Growth down 2.8%

- Aberdeen LTF down 5.0% (excluding the 30%+ tax relief for the year of course as my chosen LTF for 2013. Still in the money if the tax is included, and it always provides a nice cushion against uncertainties)

- ING/ UOB Thai Equity up 3.1%

- ING/ UOB Good Corp Governance LTF up 6.0%

- ING/UOB Big Cap Thai Div LTF up 0.3% (excluding a div of over 8% which compares handsomely with an average yield of over 3% on the index, for around 9% total return)

Worth noting that all 5 are managed funds rather than index trackers or ETFs, and on a total return basis they have regularly beaten the index in most years. Supports my view that while low cost ETFs/ index trackers might be a good bet in developed mature liquid markets like the US, it's worth paying a little extra for good managed funds in less liquid developing markets where active management comes into its own. Investors should be looking at net returns after fees in Thailand not simply fees.

Worth noting also that the change in management of ING funds to UOB certainly doesn't seem to have done any harm. All 3 funds in positive territory with returns exceeding the index and what you'd get on cash.

I guess I can't grumble either given the stellar returns of 2012 which were 40% to 50%+ for these 5 funds.

As the opening post highlighted I felt that the Thai market didn't look cheap back in May and P/E s looked a bit high around 18-19. The SET ended the year on a P/E under 15 which feels comfortable. Even though the market dropped nearly 7% for the year, P/E came down further to more reasonable levels as earnings grew.

So overall the outcome wasn't that unexpected - even if the manner in which it happened wasn't something I'd have predicted back in May. After finishing around 5th worse in the world's main markets last year, it's taken some heat out of the Thai market.

Valuations are now looking better at the start of 2014 for someone with a long term investment view than they did when I started the post..... Short term and trading of course is a different ball game with quite a lot of uncertainty to say the least impacting on sentiment...

As for 2014 view that's a whole different post... will be more of the same for me though... baht cost averaging each month, slow and steady, maxing out LTFs, and adding to holdings throughout the uncertainty to take advantage of weakness.

Cheers and Happy New Year to All

Fletch

Edit: Forgot to add that my SET50 options trading made me a 50.4% return in 2013. Much smaller positions but a nice string to have to your bow in rough times. Shame in 2014 I won't have so much time for that

Edited January 2, 2014 by fletchsmile