Bad Credit Rating Or Not, The Outlook Doesn't Look Good: Thai Opinion

[OzMick]

Once again this deliberate mis-speak is trotted out by the newspapers as a "fact" which originated with the current government.

The FARMERS are NOT getting the high prices.

It is the MIDDLEMEN who are being paid high prices for the rice they are buying at lower prices, often on phoney excuses (sorry but your rice is not the highest quality Mr. rice farmer, we can't pay you the official price for that rice), which the MIDDLEMEN then resell to the government as prime quality high-grade rice at the official rice.

And why is this being done .... or more importantly allowed ..... by the government?

Because the people buying the rice and re-selling it to the government are supporters of the government, and the government is buying their support with tax revenue buying the middleman's rice at inflated prices.

Tax fraud is illegal, a illegality is a sin ....... therefore could you not call an illegality done with tax revenues a

Tax Sin.

I think the farmers are gettng the money, perhaps a bit late but getting it. The only place I have read that they are not getting the money is on Thai Visa. Do you have any links to news stories that the farmers are not getting the money.

Don't forget that the majority of rice farm owners are not poor and a goodly percentage are not Thai but front companies for Foreign investors, some of whom were personally brought to Thailand by Thaksin to inspect the rice paddys.

Angry Farmers, Unsold Rice: Thai Intervention Near Crisis? www.cnbc.com/id/100598755

You are providing links that I can't discuss because the source is the Bangkok post.

But this one, "http://www.cnbc.com/id/100598755" Pretty much proves that the farmers are getting the money.

From your link,

I've had to wait for two months," said Prasert Chamsopa, 66, a farmer in the rice-growing province of Suphan Buri who had sold 35 tons of paddy to the government.

In early March, a senior official at Thailand's Commerce Ministry tested the water by suggesting the government could stop paying the high price for rice. The reaction in the countryside was immediate and angry: the Thai Farmers Association threatened to bring thousands of farmers to Bangkok to protest against the move.

The Commerce Ministry official said the government might also consider stopping buying 18 varieties of fast-growing rice of lower quality, which farmers have used to squeeze in more crops to cash in on the intervention scheme.

Actually, that statement proves only that the farmer received some money, not that he received all that he was entitled under the scheme. it does not indicate that he is a POOR farmer.

The quote that farmers are producing low grade fast-growing rice to cash in on the scheme is only more proof of the incompetence of its design, and the idiocy of paying well above market price for a commodity proving to be unsellable.

Edited June 7, 2013 by OzMick

[Thai at Heart]

Once again this deliberate mis-speak is trotted out by the newspapers as a "fact" which originated with the current government.

The FARMERS are NOT getting the high prices.

It is the MIDDLEMEN who are being paid high prices for the rice they are buying at lower prices, often on phoney excuses (sorry but your rice is not the highest quality Mr. rice farmer, we can't pay you the official price for that rice), which the MIDDLEMEN then resell to the government as prime quality high-grade rice at the official rice.

And why is this being done .... or more importantly allowed ..... by the government?

Because the people buying the rice and re-selling it to the government are supporters of the government, and the government is buying their support with tax revenue buying the middleman's rice at inflated prices.

Tax fraud is illegal, a illegality is a sin ....... therefore could you not call an illegality done with tax revenues a

Tax Sin.

I think the farmers are gettng the money, perhaps a bit late but getting it. The only place I have read that they are not getting the money is on Thai Visa. Do you have any links to news stories that the farmers are not getting the money.

Don't forget that the majority of rice farm owners are not poor and a goodly percentage are not Thai but front companies for Foreign investors, some of whom were personally brought to Thailand by Thaksin to inspect the rice paddys.

Angry Farmers, Unsold Rice: Thai Intervention Near Crisis? www.cnbc.com/id/100598755

You are providing links that I can't discuss because the source is the Bangkok post.

But this one, "http://www.cnbc.com/id/100598755" Pretty much proves that the farmers are getting the money.

From your link,

I've had to wait for two months," said Prasert Chamsopa, 66, a farmer in the rice-growing province of Suphan Buri who had sold 35 tons of paddy to the government.

In early March, a senior official at Thailand's Commerce Ministry tested the water by suggesting the government could stop paying the high price for rice. The reaction in the countryside was immediate and angry: the Thai Farmers Association threatened to bring thousands of farmers to Bangkok to protest against the move.

The Commerce Ministry official said the government might also consider stopping buying 18 varieties of fast-growing rice of lower quality, which farmers have used to squeeze in more crops to cash in on the intervention scheme.

Indeed, running this type of scheme can ONLY hope to work if you actively control how much and of what they grow. As you can see from the numbers of types by export, hom mali sells itself quite well, but there is only a couple of million tons a year exported. The rest of it is of lower value. So, the warehouse will be empty of the good stuff soon enough, and the lower quality types will be sitting for ages. At the moment, uncontrolled volume is the way forward, and it is basically limited to only how much they can physically put in the ground.

[rubl]

"On Tuesday, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra said she had instructed the Finance Ministry to closely monitor Moody's analysis, and confirmed that the government was ready to provide the agency with complete information prior to a rating downgrade."

Probably something lost in translation, but this suggest info to be provided will not alter a rating downgrade.

BTW after regular talks with taxi drivers I can state with 100% certainty that farmers get a little bit more than they did before the 'rice pledging scheme' was introduced by this wonderful government. Unfortunately that little bit extra seems to vanish quickly because of higher prices of almost anything. Also when THB 300 billion is spent on buying pledged rice from a single harvest season, it may be more cost effective to just give all rice farmers a million or so and eliminate the middleman, cost of storage, etc., etc.

PS before anyone asks, no I will not prove my statement.

[Thai at Heart]

A professional view of where shipment volumes may end up

http://www.oryza.com/content/oryza-rice-recap-%E2%80%93-situation-goes-bad-worse-asian-rice-quotes

Were it not for India shipping over 10 million tons in 2012 and an estimated 7-8 million tons in 2013, Thailand’s hopes of raising rice prices may have been possible. Instead, India’s re-entry to the export market has contributed to Thailand’s export tonnage falling from about 10.8 million tons in 2011 to about 7 million tons in 2013 and an estimated 6 million tons in 2013, according to the Thailand Rice Exporters Association (TREA). Vietnam is expected to ship about 7-8 million tons in 2013 after shipping about 7 million tons in years prior.

While TREA estimates Thailand rice exports this year at 6 million tons (down from a previous estimate of 6.5 million tons), the Commerce Ministry is targeting to ship 8.5 million tons. It makes one wonder whether officials are downright delusional or if they have a trick up their sleeve and are planning to offer rice at much cheaper prices to reach the tonnage target. A senior economist at the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) seemed to suggest the latter telling media, “Thailand will be selling aggressively at low prices to reduce its stockpile and capture some of India’s markets of cheap quality rice in Africa and the Middle East.”

[Thai at Heart]

"On Tuesday, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra said she had instructed the Finance Ministry to closely monitor Moody's analysis, and confirmed that the government was ready to provide the agency with complete information prior to a rating downgrade."

Probably something lost in translation, but this suggest info to be provided will not alter a rating downgrade.

BTW after regular talks with taxi drivers I can state with 100% certainty that farmers get a little bit more than they did before the 'rice pledging scheme' was introduced by this wonderful government. Unfortunately that little bit extra seems to vanish quickly because of higher prices of almost anything. Also when THB 300 billion is spent on buying pledged rice from a single harvest season, it may be more cost effective to just give all rice farmers a million or so and eliminate the middleman, cost of storage, etc., etc.

PS before anyone asks, no I will not prove my statement.

Hiding in the bottom of an article in the other paper, I read this morning that this issue will not result in a downgrade from Moodys. Why this isn't been trumpeted at the top of the government's lungs I don't know.

[bigbamboo]

The poor farmer is getting it alright, right up the drainage canal.

The rate of rural poverty has gone from 27% in 2008 to 17% in 2011. I think the farmers are happy.

I bet Abhisit is too as that was on his watch.

[gemini81]

The poor farmer is getting it alright, right up the drainage canal.

The rate of rural poverty has gone from 27% in 2008 to 17% in 2011. I think the farmers are happy.

I bet Abhisit is too as that was on his watch.

He's the only one in years who has made any sense (and not come from some ridiculous greasy background of graft). Fools didn't know a good thing when they had it....

[apetley]

Th

The Thai government so far has ploughed more than Bt600 billion into the policy of buying every single grain of rice from farmers at prices significantly higher than the market rate

Once again this deliberate mis-speak is trotted out by the newspapers as a "fact" which originated with the current government.

The FARMERS are NOT getting the high prices.

It is the MIDDLEMEN who are being paid high prices for the rice they are buying at lower prices, often on phoney excuses (sorry but your rice is not the highest quality Mr. rice farmer, we can't pay you the official price for that rice), which the MIDDLEMEN then resell to the government as prime quality high-grade rice at the official rice.

And why is this being done .... or more importantly allowed ..... by the government?

Because the people buying the rice and re-selling it to the government are supporters of the government, and the government is buying their support with tax revenue buying the middleman's rice at inflated prices.

Tax fraud is illegal, a illegality is a sin ....... therefore could you not call an illegality done with tax revenues a

Tax Sin.

I think the farmers are gettng the money, perhaps a bit late but getting it. The only place I have read that they are not getting the money is on Thai Visa. Do you have any links to news stories that the farmers are not getting the money.

Here's a cut and paste from Saturdays news on Thaivisa. For some reason I can't quote across topics.

In the third paragraph from bottom there is the statement that year on year farmer income has gone down 7.7%.

BANGKOK, June 1 – Thailand saw a slowdown in foreign capital inflows in May but has yet to pinpoint if the baht value is on a declining trend, according to a Bank of Thailand (BoT) executive.

Mathee Supapongse, senior director of the BoT’s Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Department, said Thailand’s economy was stagnant in April but it should successively expand in Q2 thanks to the cut on policy interest rate by 0.25 per cent, satisfactory consumer confidence index and the government’s economic stimulation.

The BoT will reassess this year’s economic figures in July before deciding if more actions will have to be taken, he said.

He said the central bank predicted gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 5.1 per cent this year and 5 per cent next year.

Foreign capital inflows in April were US$4.166 billion and there were signs of a slowdown in May, he said, adding that the private sector’s investment index shrank by 1.1 per cent in April year-on-year in based on less active investment on machinery and equipment and the slow recovery of global economy.

The private sector’s consumer index expanded by 1.7 per cent while farmers’ income dropped by 7.7 per cent year-on-year.

Mr Mathee said the kingdom’s exports reached US$17.251 billion, an increase of 3.7 per cent while exporters were confident that the situation would improve in Q2.

Tourism has continually grown, by 2.1 million visitors during the first quarter of 2013, or a 21.6 per cent increase, mostly from China and Russia, while the inflation rate was at 2.42 per cent.

Sent from my GT-I9003 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Edited June 7, 2013 by apetley

[Thai at Heart]

Just to break the messed up quotes, fertilisers and rents are way up. Why fertilisers are so far up God knows, oil is cheap.

Gouging is the only explanation. That said, everyone uses far too much fertiliser anyway.

I look at rice business as something that Thailand should be moving away from anyway.

Edited June 7, 2013 by Thai at Heart

[apetley]

Have to agree with you that way too much fertiliser(chemical) is used.

As for moving away from rice production I am not so sure about that. It will be a long long time before the rural poor are given any other viable alternative imo.

Sent from my GT-I9003 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Thai at Heart]

Have to agree with you that way too much fertiliser(chemical) is used.

As for moving away from rice production I am not so sure about that. It will be a long long time before the rural poor are given any other viable alternative imo.

Sent from my GT-I9003 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Pursuing rice to the detriment of other alternatives to largely enrich the exporters is currently a completely dead policy.

[chiangmaikelly]

Don't forget that the majority of rice farm owners are not poor and a goodly percentage are not Thai but front companies for Foreign investors, some of whom were personally brought to Thailand by Thaksin to inspect the rice paddys.

Angry Farmers, Unsold Rice: Thai Intervention Near Crisis? www.cnbc.com/id/100598755

You are providing links that I can't discuss because the source is the Bangkok post.

But this one, "http://www.cnbc.com/id/100598755" Pretty much proves that the farmers are getting the money.

From your link,

I've had to wait for two months," said Prasert Chamsopa, 66, a farmer in the rice-growing province of Suphan Buri who had sold 35 tons of paddy to the government.

In early March, a senior official at Thailand's Commerce Ministry tested the water by suggesting the government could stop paying the high price for rice. The reaction in the countryside was immediate and angry: the Thai Farmers Association threatened to bring thousands of farmers to Bangkok to protest against the move.

The Commerce Ministry official said the government might also consider stopping buying 18 varieties of fast-growing rice of lower quality, which farmers have used to squeeze in more crops to cash in on the intervention scheme.

You are always so confused about everything CMK, and/or, you are forever an annoying TROLL.

What am I confused about? The farmers are getting the rice pledging money. If you have any factual information to the contrary post it.

Edited June 7, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[davejones]

Finance Ministry officials can no longer sit still. Kittiratt, in particular, has been banking on economic success via relatively high gross domestic product growth and a stock market boom

Bangkok has always been a favourite place for the worlds scammers to set up sweat shops to con investors. It seems these are so successful that team Shiniwatra has caught on to the idea and the Government is running the biggest sweat shop of all. Foreign investors should really get their money out of Thailand now as a matter of urgency.

And invest in the West, where governments steal their money? LOL. I think money's just as safe here as it is in EU, US, etc. Just look at what happened in Cyprus. Investors have to invest somewhere. And many investors want to diversify, so nothing wrong with having money here if the risks have been taken into account. Everything in life is a risk. I think it's silly to advice people you know nothing about to get their money out. It would be gross stupidity for some of them to leave. They'd probably lose more than the risk of staying here. Many investments can't just be cashed in right away.

[rubl]

What am I confused about? The farmers are getting only a minor part of the rice pledging money. Farmer income has dropped even as recently stated by a BoT executive ("while farmers income dropped by 7.7 per cent year-on-year"). What happened with the 410 + 90 +120 + 210 billion spent or pledged in 2011/2012 and 2012/2013 rice price pledging season ?

[HiSoLowSoNoSo]

What am I confused about? The farmers are getting only a minor part of the rice pledging money. Farmer income has dropped even as recently stated by a BoT executive ("while farmers income dropped by 7.7 per cent year-on-year"). What happened with the 410 + 90 +120 + 210 billion spent or pledged in 2011/2012 and 2012/2013 rice price pledging season ?

Looks like a huge part of it went to Maserati, Ferrari, Mercedes and to the Shinawatra-Clan.

[retarius]

True. I live in a rice producing area. I do not know of one farmer that has received the higher price proposed under the scheme. Not only the excuse of 'poor quality' but statements such as 'you will have to wait 6 months for payment' 'we are not in the scheme', these are what the farmers are being told when they try to sell their rice. Thy cannot afford to wait, most are heavily in debt and require money to pay off loans and prepare land for next years crop. If Thailand wasn't so riddled with corruption, the pledging scheme might have been a good idea, it would cost money for sure, but if properly administered the profits would have benefited the farmer, not the millers, middlemen, etcetera. I have not seen it personally but rumour has it the huge quantities of Cambodian rice are being smuggled into the Country and being sold via the scheme.

My family are getting paid for their rice and at 15000 a kilo vs 10000 last year. Having said that they had to wait for several months. They got some sort of document to take the bank, but the bank kept saying that the funds hadn't arrived...until finally they went and got the money...they bought a Honda Zoomer to celebrate. Maybe they an the exception to the rule, I don't know, but the farmers in their village to the south west of Ayuttaya all seem to have had similar experiences. They are now fighting about the quota for the next harvest...apparently they have been told that not all rice can be pledged in the scheme, and that each farmer will have a quota based on what he has pledged previously.

Clearly the scheme is flawed allowing the brokers to gain millions, and by the use of imported rice. Whenever and wherever there is an arbitrage smugglers will take advantage...it's definitely time for a rethink...I can't for the life of me understand why someone as undoubtedly smart as Yingluck doesn't see this and amend or end the scheme.

[apetley]

The answer is so obvious it's screaming at you. The rice pledging scheme allows for massive fraud. Thats the answer!

If they wanted to benefit just the farmers they would have paid them direct as per the Democrat scheme.

Sent from my GT-I9003 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[frankold]

The scheme won't be ammended for the exact reason it was introduced in the first place.

[OzMick]

We have sent our letter to Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra that we don’t agree to cut the intervention price,” said Vichien Phuanglamjiak, vice-president of the Thai Rice Farmers Association, which represents 700 to 800 farmers. “And if we don’t get an appropriate response, we will stage a protest and it would be a big one.”

Thai Rice Farmers Threaten Protest if Intervention Price Cut

http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/28385

If the farmers are not getting the money why would they protest?

An update for you:

Meanwhile, the Thai Rice Farmers Association acknowledged the huge losses incurred by the government under the rice-pledging scheme, and expressed worries about the future and the lower rice quality. Association president Prasith Boonchuey said ..........."Despite the high pledging price, farmers have never got high returns and still faced a high debt burden after the higher cost of production. Farmers do not want this unstable pledging at a high price as the government will finally need to review the policy because of huge losses and financial liquidity problems. Farmers have ignored development of rice quality because the government has focused only on price, while they have no plan to promote sustainable growth of rice plantations."

Prasith said the pledging policy had not helped farmers to improve their living standards.

You might consider the emphasised statement which indicates he thinks the scheme is a failure in its stated aim.