Automate Thai state lottery system: Chulalongkorn University

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STATE LOTTERY
Automate state lottery system: prof
Pravit Rojanaphruk
The Nation



Study shows winning numbers are statistically impossible; signs of rigging

Fancy winning big in lottery? Maybe this will change your mind.

BANGKOK: -- After conducting a three-decade-long study, Chulalongkorn University statistician Theeraporn Verathaworn has discovered that the numbers drawn fortnightly in the state lottery are highly improbable.

Hence, he said, the system should become fully automated and be open to external review in order to ensure the results cannot be rigged.

"There should be no problems if they used automated machines and the system was checked by outside auditors every two years or so," the 59-year-old said.

State lottery operators should also make all statistics of winning numbers available to the public for the sake of transparency, he advised.

He said that though many Thais still believed that drawing a number manually was more reliable, it is not true scientifically.

Theeraporn, who recently briefed concerned panels both in the Senate and the Lower House, said many poor people who placed underground bets on the last two or three numbers of the state lottery had a high chance of being exploited.

While stopping short of accusing the state lottery of manipulating results, Theeraporn said his study proved the results were highly improbable. For instance, he said, having the same last two digits of 66 appear as the winning number twice in a decade is impossible statistically speaking as it can only occur once in 417 years on average. This number was first drawn on October 1, 2004 and then again on February 1 this year. "When something that should occur once in 417 years ends up occurring twice - it's almost a miracle," he said.

Another highly unusual result was the last two digits of one of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's many vans, which ended up appearing seven times in the 40 bimonthly cycles. "The same number came up three times consecutively," he said.

Theeraporn said manipulation was possible because the balls containing lottery numbers could not be mixed properly in the small container used and also because lower digits were dropped into the container first.

Underground betting will continue as poor people keep hoping luck will solve their problems. Besides, the amount promised by illegal betting is disproportionately higher than that offered legally. A Bt1-wager on the winning last two digits could win as much as Bt60 in the underground lottery.

Nevertheless, the chance of winning is still much lower than losing, and does not make sense statistically unless you have access to those "special numbers", Theeraporn said.

"Theoretically, if you asked me if one should gamble on lottery numbers, I would say it's not worth it," he said, adding that 25 million of the 69 million Thais, mostly poor people, bought lotteries. "They're building castles in the air, unless they have access to those 'lucky numbers'."


-- The Nation 2013-06-15

[Scott]

I believe this, it is statistically impossible to buy as many lottery tickets as I have and not win SOMETHING

[Thai at Heart]

I believe someone gets enormously rich out of the that lottery and it isn't the thai general public.

[Guest]

Statistically speaking, how many of you did understood this sentence "For instance, he said, having the same last two digits of 66 appear as the winning number twice in a decade is impossible statistically speaking as it can only occur once in 417 years on average." .. and this one .. "Another highly unusual result was the last two digits of one of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's many vans, which ended up appearing seven times in the 40 bimonthly cycles."

I did not. I had to double check that this article was from The Nation instead of from Not The Nation.

How does Thai national lottery work?

[bigbamboo]

So this is the result of a three decade long study at one of Thailand's top universities.

Enough said.

[Thai at Heart]

So this is the result of a three decade long study at one of Thailand's top universities.

Enough said.

Glad to see he saw it through to the end.

[harrry]

My statistics teacher always told me that with draws like this each chance is independent therefore it is possible to have two or even three identical results in a row. The thing is it averages out over a very long period. Maybe Thai statisticas is different.

[lowushatin]

My statistics teacher always told me that with draws like this each chance is independent therefore it is possible to have two or even three identical results in a row. The thing is it averages out over a very long period. Maybe Thai statisticas is different.

He is a respected Thai PROFESSOR! He sure knows it better.

[OzMick]

"many poor people who placed underground bets on the last two or three numbers of the state lottery had a high chance of being exploited."

I have just had a detailed discussion with the g/f about this. It seems the odds offered in most areas is 70:1 on a 2 digit number or 700:1 on a 3 digit. This is a return which appears huge to the mathematically challenged, but in fact is economic suicide. But it gets better - the odds offered on Samui are 50 and 500 to 1, because everything is more expensive here. She doesn't understand why I am still laughing.

Anecdotally, I know one otherwise nice Thai lady who had a win on the 3 digit and was so impressed with the result that over the next few years she bet the house, literally.

BTW the odds of a 2-digit recurring number are 99:1. The odds of a specific 2-digit number recurring approach 10,000:1, the same as any 2-digit number occurring 3 times consecutively. Of course, these odds are reduced markedly for lucky numbers and in draws held on auspicious days.

Edited June 15, 2013 by OzMick

[Thormaturge]

This is a professor?

Statistically some numbers will occur more often than they "should", whilst others may not appear at all.

I suspect the good professor has simply been unlucky and is trying to prove the lottery is rigged. That said, the operation of the lottery is terribly amateurish. I remember seeing balls fly out of the container once, and bounce along the floor. Good for a laugh and only ThB 100 or so

[Suradit69]

Statistically speaking, how many of you did understood this sentence "For instance, he said, having the same last two digits of 66 appear as the winning number twice in a decade is impossible statistically speaking as it can only occur once in 417 years on average." .. and this one .. "Another highly unusual result was the last two digits of one of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's many vans, which ended up appearing seven times in the 40 bimonthly cycles."

I did not. I had to double check that this article was from The Nation instead of from Not The Nation.

How does Thai national lottery work?

I suspect (hope) the illogical statements were attributable to the usual stellar reporting and translating skills at The Nation.

The belief that "automated" devices can't be rigged is a little naïve certainly.

[Thai at Heart]

Statistically speaking, how many of you did understood this sentence "For instance, he said, having the same last two digits of 66 appear as the winning number twice in a decade is impossible statistically speaking as it can only occur once in 417 years on average." .. and this one .. "Another highly unusual result was the last two digits of one of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's many vans, which ended up appearing seven times in the 40 bimonthly cycles."

I did not. I had to double check that this article was from The Nation instead of from Not The Nation.

How does Thai national lottery work?

I suspect (hope) the illogical statements were attributable to the usual stellar reporting and translating skills at The Nation.

The belief that "automated" devices can't be rigged is a little naïve certainly.

And people actually gamble in illegal Thai casinos.

[slapout]

Another cash cow that those who disperse the tickets make millions from each fortnight. The price of the 40 baht individual lottery ticket ranges from 50 to as high as 70 baht at street vendors just due to mark up at each change of hands. To automate the system would deprive some people of laundering several million baht each month.

In the real world, you could go to jail for running this type of scam.

[apetley]

I believe someone gets enormously rich out of the that lottery and it isn't the thai general public.

If you do some digging on Google you can find where a significant proportion of the money goes.

Sent from my GT-I9003 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Thai at Heart]

I believe someone gets enormously rich out of the that lottery and it isn't the thai general public.

If you do some digging on Google you can find where a significant proportion of the money goes.

Sent from my GT-I9003 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

I am not saying anything

[uty6543]

i wasn't surprised that the thai lottery showed "signs of rigging" but i am amazed how long it took a university statistician to come to that conclusion

Edited June 15, 2013 by uty6543

[Toscano]

I am sure the lottery in Thailand will be rigged . I won't buy any tickets for that reason .

I used to do the lottery in Italy when I lived there , until I noticed that the winners always seemed to be in Sicily or southern Italy , home of the Mafia .

[tcsan]

That is the most idiotic statement and irresponsible reporting.

For a 2 digit number, the odds are 1 in a hundred.

With 2 draws a month, you only need 4.167 years if the random process goes exactly according to theory.

But then again, only FOOLS will buy the Thai lottery.

Wonder what the Thai Govts. / Authorities (including all those past Govts.) are doing all these years?

Imagine using a 100 Thai Baht Legal Tender Note to pay for an official Thai lottery with a face value of only 80 Baht printed on it?

Seems that the words "LEGAL TENDER" has no meaning here in Thailand.

And all of us know whose revered image is on each and every Thai bank notes.

T.I.T.

[GeorgeO]

My statistics teacher always told me that with draws like this each chance is independent therefore it is possible to have two or even three identical results in a row. The thing is it averages out over a very long period. Maybe Thai statisticas is different.

That's true. For this academic to conclude that it is suspicious for the number 66 to be drawn out twice in a decade is ridiculous.

Statistics merely show that the probability of such events happening is X, but since the whole basis of a state lottery is random chance, there is no reason why the number 66 cannot appear in three, four or even five consecutive lotteries. And, there is no proof that the law of statistics will average out, even over a very long period.

I continue to play in a UK Lottery syndicate (with the help of family back home) and we have seen the same three numbers coming up on numerous occasions over the years. Statistically, that's impossible, but the lottery vendor certainly has no problems paying the GBP 10.00 on each occasion, essentially because these numbers defied the 'law of statistics' and followed the 'law of chance'...! How long would it take for that to average out...? Probably a million years or so?!

BTW, why would anyone want to pay such a high stake for such low wins in the Thai state lottery....?

[Songhua]

One can only assume the article should say that the study delved into thirty years worth of results .... not that it took thirty years to complete.

[JohanV]

I read a couple of years ago about the Italian state lotto being rigged in a quite clever way.
The draw was always broadcasted on TV and the were using ping-pong balls with numbers painted on them, handpicked by a blindfolded assistant.

The thing they did was to put the six winning numbers-to-be in the fridge before the draw, and the assistant, being in on the scam, simply picked the cold ones! The whole scam was revealed when someone found an eggbox with six ping-pong balls in the fridge backstage just before the show started..

Also, our beloved Mr Stay-In-Dubai was in Uganda a couple of years ago to set up a state lottery there. Propably entirely transparent and corruption-free, one would assume. So, he seems to have some experience in the field, and I guess the Ugandan farmers are better off now, when they have a chance to be blessed by his luck instead of investing their money in boring luck-free stuff like tractors, crops. education or toilets...

There's an article here on Thai Visa about the Ugandan lottery affairs:

Will Thaksin Gain From State Visit By Uganda's President Museveni?

Edited June 15, 2013 by JohanV

[johna]

Automating the lottery will not solve the problem, if anything it will make fraud easier, what's needed is transparency and simplification. I would very much like to know how much money is collected from ticket sales, how much is paid out ect, over the years I have several times read of 2 lottery winners with the same ticket number claiming the prize, but the only way that can happen is if a second illegal batch of tickets are in circulation.

[jacko45k]

That is the most idiotic statement and irresponsible reporting.

For a 2 digit number, the odds are 1 in a hundred.

With 2 draws a month, you only need 4.167 years if the random process goes exactly according to theory.

But then again, only FOOLS will buy the Thai lottery.

Wonder what the Thai Govts. / Authorities (including all those past Govts.) are doing all these years?

Imagine using a 100 Thai Baht Legal Tender Note to pay for an official Thai lottery with a face value of only 80 Baht printed on it?

Seems that the words "LEGAL TENDER" has no meaning here in Thailand.

And all of us know whose revered image is on each and every Thai bank notes.

T.I.T.

So twice in a decade sounds about right!

I stopped buying tickets because I was never sure how much the price was supposed to be!

[thaigold]

With no small knowledge of Nevada gaming protocols, especially in Keno, the rule is - if human hands can touch the balls, there will be cheating. Thailand, years ago, had the opportunity to go to what the Thais call (on-line) ticketing. The street sellers rumbled and it went away. In California, you can go into a 7/11, pick your own numbers, and receive a computer generated play slip. The drawing is televised, as the balls tumble in a metal cage. Because balls can be weighted, shaped, magnetized, or the tensile properties of the surface changed, special agents guard the balls.

Were I a swindler, I'd love to get into the inner circle - you could get rich real quick.

[JohanV]

With no small knowledge of Nevada gaming protocols, especially in Keno, the rule is - if human hands can touch the balls, there will be cheating. Thailand, years ago, had the opportunity to go to what the Thais call (on-line) ticketing. The street sellers rumbled and it went away. In California, you can go into a 7/11, pick your own numbers, and receive a computer generated play slip. The drawing is televised, as the balls tumble in a metal cage. Because balls can be weighted, shaped, magnetized, or the tensile properties of the surface changed, special agents guard the balls.

Were I a swindler, I'd love to get into the inner circle - you could get rich real quick.

I guess here the special agents would be part of the problem, not the solution...

Edited June 15, 2013 by JohanV

[fresnoboy]

Study shows winning numbers are statistically impossible; signs of rigging

Fancy winning big in lottery? Maybe this will change your mind.

What a surprise !

[madmitch]

Automating the lottery will not solve the problem, if anything it will make fraud easier, what's needed is transparency and simplification. I would very much like to know how much money is collected from ticket sales, how much is paid out ect, over the years I have several times read of 2 lottery winners with the same ticket number claiming the prize, but the only way that can happen is if a second illegal batch of tickets are in circulation.

Wrong. There are only 999,999 possible numeric combinations and they sell several million tickets per draw, therefore there is duplication.

Vendors often sell two tickets to the same person with exactly the same number.

[LaurentPerche]

What pile of crap is this? I do not know for sure how the lottery system works in thailand but if the same number of unique digits are pulled randomly from a ballot each time then each draw has the exact same statistical probabilities.

You could drawing 66 ten times in a row and there will be nothing strange about it.

Using a dice as an example (six faces), drawing 10 times an ace (number 1) throwing 10 times the same dice is as probable as any other series of number.

If this professor is arguing such basic probability theory then I worry for his students.

I'd love to ask this guy about his take on the Monty Hall problem... Lol

No wonder Thailand is one of the only country in the world that has not won a Nobel Price ! I wonder if someone has even been nominated ever.

[Chupup]

I used to play the Thai Lottery when it was 80bht, then it went to 85bht because its "New Year", that's when i stopped, now i see that the vendors are asking 110bht for the 80bht ticket ( 2 x 40 )for a top prize of 4 mill which used to be 6 mill, its a joke and VERY suspect

[LaurentPerche]

After a little googling I noticed this professor seems to not only be legit but he has been publishing quite a bit.

Will give him the benefit of the doubt and assume extremely poor reporting from The Nation or that the Thai lottery works in a real funny way.

Wanted to drop him an email to ask his take on The Nation's article but could not find an email address. I did some lecturing over the years both at Chula and Tammasat and the professors I mingled with were smart enough not to make such ridiculous comments.

Last option is that someone has enormous (financial) interest in moving the lottery to an automated system and this is only chapter 1 to a good PR campaign