Bangkok Hotel Bookings Seen Down 10 Pct In March Amid Political Crisis

[george]

Bangkok hotel bookings seen down 10 pct in March amid political crisis

BANGKOK: -- Hotel bookings in Bangkok are likely to fall by up to 10 pct in March with political paralysis expected to continue following elections Sunday, industry officials said.

Occupancy rates could fall to around 60 pct as Asian tourists, especially from Singapore, have stopped booking trips to Thailand, said Surapong Techaruvichit, an advisor to the Thai Hotels Association.

'The number of Singapore tourists booking rooms has declined significantly against the growing tourism worldwide. I can't think of any other reason apart from politics,' Surapong said.

Singapore tourist arrivals in March dropped 10 pct to just under 10,000 from the same period last year, according Sa-ngiam Ekachote, secretary of the Thai Travel Agents' Association (ATTA).

The city state has been targeted by protesters demanding Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra step down, following his family's sale of its stake in Shin Corp to Singapore state investment arm Temasak Holdings.

'So far, we have tried to explain to tourists that protests were in a limited area but now they are moving further into the capital to tourist attractions like Siam Paragon,' said Sa-ngiam.

'There are some concerns that there might be confrontations between the anti-Thaksin crowd and his supporters,' he said.

Tourism accounts for 6 pct of Thailand's gross domestic product. Asian tourists -- those industry experts say would most likely be deterred by the political crisis -- make up 60 pct of the country's total arrivals.

--AFX 2006-03-31

[craigoaus]

I would image everyone would have thought this would happen..

But does anyone know why the value of the Baht (esp against the Aussie dollar) has increased?

[logbags]

The aussie dollar was close to 31 baht in November. It is now 27 baht. I want to return to Thailand in June so I hope it goes up again. Given the political trouble you would think the Baht would drop.

Anyone on this group with banking experience who can shed light on why currencies go up and down so drastically??

If I change $100 aust. and normally get 3000 baht, it is a nasty loss to get only 2700 baht. Mind you, I was in Samui in 1985 and got 15 baht per dollar after it was floated.

I also get seriously pissed when you get slugged for each travellers cheque you change. Before it was a fee for the whole transaction but now it is 15 baht per cheque plus the other charges.

There seems no alternative to banks. Cash is good but risky as it can be lost or stolen. Has anyone noticed how some bank workers will actually try to keep your small change at exchange booths?

Last time I arrived in Phuket early in the morning the girl who worked in the bank was actually behind the taxi stand and was changing money for punters straight off the plane at a much lower rate. At 6am people did not have much choice.

I pulled her up about it as she was offering 27 baht per Aussie dollar when the rate was 30+ at the bank she was supposed to be running. Many people leave their small change as a tip which is fine but when the person just pockets it I ask for it back. Some bank workers even have a cup by the exchange window for this.

[yom07]

Aussie dollar has gone down quite a lot against other main currencies, just like new zeland dollar

I would image everyone would have thought this would happen..

But does anyone know why the value of the Baht (esp against the Aussie dollar) has increased?

[mullup]

But does anyone know why the value of the Baht (esp against the Aussie dollar) has increased?

Because the Aussie Dollar has dropped 3 cents vs the US$...

[user786895]

From what I understand, the Thai Baht is 'linked' with the US Dollar. The US Dollar is very strong at the moment as the fairly 'new' Secretary of State for the Treasury has followed his predecessors's fiscal policies very closely, hence allowing for a period of stability that has been unprecedented for some time. The Thai Baht is therefore reflecting the strength of being tied to a strong US Dollar.

The aussie dollar was close to 31 baht in November. It is now 27 baht. I want to return to Thailand in June so I hope it goes up again. Given the political trouble you would think the Baht would drop.

Anyone on this group with banking experience who can shed light on why currencies go up and down so drastically??

If I change $100 aust. and normally get 3000 baht, it is a nasty loss to get only 2700 baht. Mind you, I was in Samui in 1985 and got 15 baht per dollar after it was floated.

I also get seriously pissed when you get slugged for each travellers cheque you change. Before it was a fee for the whole transaction but now it is 15 baht per cheque plus the other charges.

There seems no alternative to banks. Cash is good but risky as it can be lost or stolen. Has anyone noticed how some bank workers will actually try to keep your small change at exchange booths?

Last time I arrived in Phuket early in the morning the girl who worked in the bank was actually behind the taxi stand and was changing money for punters straight off the plane at a much lower rate. At 6am people did not have much choice.

I pulled her up about it as she was offering 27 baht per Aussie dollar when the rate was 30+ at the bank she was supposed to be running. Many people leave their small change as a tip which is fine but when the person just pockets it I ask for it back. Some bank workers even have a cup by the exchange window for this.

[farang2002]

But does anyone know why the value of the Baht (esp against the Aussie dollar) has increased?

Because the Aussie Dollar has dropped 3 cents vs the US$...

In 2001 the US dollar was aroung 45b, today aroung 38b. I stayed many times at the Amari Boulevard for $40 US per night, today it's $95. Maybe a little slowdown in visitors will encourage hoteliers to adjust their pricing.

[1Lucky]

The Thai Baht isn't just strong against the Aussie Dollar - it is also strong against the British Pound. Am also slightly mystified by this given the political uncertainty however it may well be due to the performance of the basket of currencies to whose performance the Thai Baht is linked combined with the fact that the Thai economy is still expected to grow by about 5% this year.

As for the dip in Hotel bookings - what a shocker Singaporeans being put off visiting Thailand of late - after all those completely unxenophobic campaigns against Singaporean interests - not surprised Singaporeans are voting with their feet.

Lucky

[Bangkok Barry]

The drop in arrivals couldn't be anything to do with tourists (and everyone else) being told they have to go back to their rooms at 1am or 2am or whenever the BIB decide to close down places on any particular night, could it? Or that they run the risk of arrest if they don't carry their passport every time they go out? Or they can't pop into 7-11 for a beer in the middle of a tropical afternoon? Or they face the prospect of being drug-tested while out for the evening? Or that prices are rising so sharply that Thailand is no longer the good deal that it used to be when compared to some of the neighbouring countries?

No. It couldn't possibly.

[amarka]

Hello Everyone......

its springtime here in europe and guess what...

lots are people are going on holiday to spain, italy, france and greece instead of Thailand, malasia and india.....

package tours from the U.K to spain for 2 weeks can be as little as 200/300 pounds.... a flight to Thailand is.......

it will pick up again when europe get cold again...like it does every year...

amarka

The drop in arrivals couldn't be anything to do with tourists (and everyone else) being told they have to go back to their rooms at 1am or 2am or whenever the BIB decide to close down places on any particular night, could it? Or that they run the risk of arrest if they don't carry their passport every time they go out? Or they can't pop into 7-11 for a beer in the middle of a tropical afternoon? Or they face the prospect of being drug-tested while out for the evening? Or that prices are rising so sharply that Thailand is no longer the good deal that it used to be when compared to some of the neighbouring countries?

No. It couldn't possibly.

[Greer]

I am surprised that we have seen it take this long - I expected to see these unfortunate figures much sooner. Maybe people were willing to wait and see, but are now becoming worried.

I am not surprised about the figures relating to Asian tourists - as I guess it is easier to rearrange short regional trips at short notice than visits from further afield due to booking times etc.

Regarding the exchange rates - I too am wondering why the Baht is holding up against international currencies at this time, when the effect of political "turmoil" in most countries would be a fairly quick drop.

Anyone have any thoughts?

Regarding the comment about travellers cheques - why not just bring your international ATM card? I travel internationally all the time, and never use travellers cheques at all. Too much potential for being ripped off by the exchange companies with their ever increasing fees and poor exchange rates - especially if you have to go to the so-called "first world" countries.

[bachismo]

From what I understand, the Thai Baht is 'linked' with the US Dollar. The US Dollar is very strong at the moment as the fairly 'new' Secretary of State for the Treasury has followed his predecessors's fiscal policies very closely, hence allowing for a period of stability that has been unprecedented for some time. The Thai Baht is therefore reflecting the strength of being tied to a strong US Dollar.

The baht is still holding strong against the US dollar as well. About three months ago it was about 41.5, now it's about 38.5. So the baht seems to be strengthening on its own not on the coat tails of the dollar.

[farang2002]

From what I understand, the Thai Baht is 'linked' with the US Dollar. The US Dollar is very strong at the moment as the fairly 'new' Secretary of State for the Treasury has followed his predecessors's fiscal policies very closely, hence allowing for a period of stability that has been unprecedented for some time. The Thai Baht is therefore reflecting the strength of being tied to a strong US Dollar.

The aussie dollar was close to 31 baht in November. It is now 27 baht. I want to return to Thailand in June so I hope it goes up again. Given the political trouble you would think the Baht would drop.

Anyone on this group with banking experience who can shed light on why currencies go up and down so drastically??

If I change $100 aust. and normally get 3000 baht, it is a nasty loss to get only 2700 baht. Mind you, I was in Samui in 1985 and got 15 baht per dollar after it was floated.

I also get seriously pissed when you get slugged for each travellers cheque you change. Before it was a fee for the whole transaction but now it is 15 baht per cheque plus the other charges.

There seems no alternative to banks. Cash is good but risky as it can be lost or stolen. Has anyone noticed how some bank workers will actually try to keep your small change at exchange booths?

Last time I arrived in Phuket early in the morning the girl who worked in the bank was actually behind the taxi stand and was changing money for punters straight off the plane at a much lower rate. At 6am people did not have much choice.

I pulled her up about it as she was offering 27 baht per Aussie dollar when the rate was 30+ at the bank she was supposed to be running. Many people leave their small change as a tip which is fine but when the person just pockets it I ask for it back. Some bank workers even have a cup by the exchange window for this.

Sorry Nick, but the US dollar has taken a dive. The national debt is over 8 trillion dollars; when the government needs more money they just print more. Confidence in the dollar is falling and so is the exchange rate. Just ask any farang living in Thailand who is living off his social security about the buying power of the dollar.

[britmaveric]

These realities will also make it difficult for Thailand's private sector to roll over its mounting short-term external liabilities, which amounted to $17 billion, or 33% of total external debt at the end of 2005. With foreign inflows increasingly scarce in 2006, Thailand will be forced to draw down its foreign exchange reserves by as much as $15 billion to finance net outflows of foreign portfolio investment and its larger current account deficit. This implies that a significant depreciation of the baht is probable in 2006.

Baht depreciation could be intensified by domestic capital flight if concerns arise about possible capital controls. In May 1997, the Bank of Thailand implemented capital controls to contain building devaluation pressure on the baht. These measures severely limited the ability of Thais to shelter assets offshore in foreign currencies.

In July 1997, the baht was devalued by 20% and by the end of that fateful year the depreciation of the baht against the US dollar exceeded 80%. As Thailand's political and social crisis deepens in the months ahead, and with it confidence in the economy, a new financial and balance of payments crisis cannot be ruled out.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/HC30Ae04.html

-Camerata found this.

[DogNo1]

The US Secretary of the Treasury remains Mr. John Snow. The new face is Ben S. Bernanke as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board which just raised the US prime interest rate 25 basis points. This strengthens the dollar because it makes US bonds more desirable to foreign investors. Actually, if the Thai baht is floating against the dollar, US dollars should start to buy more than 38 baht. Perhaps the exchange rate to the dollar is controlled somewhere.

The former chairman, Alan Greenspan is predicting a fall in the value of the dollar because he predicts that foreign governments will move out of US treasury bonds in the future.

So who can tell what will happen? I sure can't.

[KK-Mike]

The aussie dollar was close to 31 baht in November. It is now 27 baht. I want to return to Thailand in June so I hope it goes up again. Given the political trouble you would think the Baht would drop.

Anyone on this group with banking experience who can shed light on why currencies go up and down so drastically??

If I change $100 aust. and normally get 3000 baht, it is a nasty loss to get only 2700 baht. Mind you, I was in Samui in 1985 and got 15 baht per dollar after it was floated.

I also get seriously pissed when you get slugged for each travellers cheque you change. Before it was a fee for the whole transaction but now it is 15 baht per cheque plus the other charges.

There seems no alternative to banks. Cash is good but risky as it can be lost or stolen. Has anyone noticed how some bank workers will actually try to keep your small change at exchange booths?

Last time I arrived in Phuket early in the morning the girl who worked in the bank was actually behind the taxi stand and was changing money for punters straight off the plane at a much lower rate. At 6am people did not have much choice.

I pulled her up about it as she was offering 27 baht per Aussie dollar when the rate was 30+ at the bank she was supposed to be running. Many people leave their small change as a tip which is fine but when the person just pockets it I ask for it back. Some bank workers even have a cup by the exchange window for this.

The rate is what the rate is mate. If you cannot afford to travel, stay home with your non-smiling face.

[deminister]

This forum seem to side with Sondhi and Chamlong for very strange reasons. Most readers are expats who are denied already fair access to Thai investment companies. Going with the Sondhi circus will only increase Xenophobia. I would love to know if someone can draw up a list of foreign assets from all those politicians boycotting the elections. It seems that democracy for certain people means that THEY decide on who others may vote!

If we have a look at mister Suthep, it is safe to say that he is an opportunist with a very short memory. TAC was one of the companies that got filthy richt from corrupt contracts. He was a frequent user of the private plane of the company. It may be overlooked but another STATE owned company TELENOR from Norway has all the shares of DTAC in stock. Maybe Chamlong cs can explain me the difference. Also no tax was paid to the families close to Suthep!

[lannarebirth]

The aussie dollar was close to 31 baht in November. It is now 27 baht. I want to return to Thailand in June so I hope it goes up again. Given the political trouble you would think the Baht would drop.

Anyone on this group with banking experience who can shed light on why currencies go up and down so drastically??

If I change $100 aust. and normally get 3000 baht, it is a nasty loss to get only 2700 baht. Mind you, I was in Samui in 1985 and got 15 baht per dollar after it was floated.

I also get seriously pissed when you get slugged for each travellers cheque you change. Before it was a fee for the whole transaction but now it is 15 baht per cheque plus the other charges.

There seems no alternative to banks. Cash is good but risky as it can be lost or stolen. Has anyone noticed how some bank workers will actually try to keep your small change at exchange booths?

Last time I arrived in Phuket early in the morning the girl who worked in the bank was actually behind the taxi stand and was changing money for punters straight off the plane at a much lower rate. At 6am people did not have much choice.

I pulled her up about it as she was offering 27 baht per Aussie dollar when the rate was 30+ at the bank she was supposed to be running. Many people leave their small change as a tip which is fine but when the person just pockets it I ask for it back. Some bank workers even have a cup by the exchange window for this.

The reason for weakness in the Aussie, New Zealand, and coming soon the Canadian currency is linked to what's known as the "Yen Carry Trade". For years now traders have been borrowing Yen (which had been declining)at zero percent interest and investing in the currencies and bonds of nations with weak currencies and higher yields. For a long time it has been a risk free trade. Traders were able to ride the appreciating currency, while also getting a good interest return on the investment. All the while as the Yen was decling, there fore making it a cheaper payback. Now with some stirrings of economic growth in Japan, and what appears to be an end of it's decade plus of deflation, all those trades need to be unwound and the money payed back.

The movement of this money (sdome say TRILLIONS in $USD terms) caused those non major currencies to appreciate higher than they might have otherwise, and they'll likely fall further. More than is normal, while participants hit the exit ramp. BTW, the Thai Baht is not linked to the $USD. I suspect it's strength stems from the Yens resurgence, being a named currency in the Yuan Index

basket, and the fact that the election has not played out yet. Regardless of that outcome I expect weakness. Buy the rumor, sell the news.

[lannarebirth]

The Thai Baht isn't just strong against the Aussie Dollar - it is also strong against the British Pound. Am also slightly mystified by this given the political uncertainty however it may well be due to the performance of the basket of currencies to whose performance the Thai Baht is linked combined with the fact that the Thai economy is still expected to grow by about 5% this year.

As for the dip in Hotel bookings - what a shocker Singaporeans being put off visiting Thailand of late - after all those completely unxenophobic campaigns against Singaporean interests - not surprised Singaporeans are voting with their feet.

Lucky

Yeah, I think that's right. Staed growth is about 5%. Unfortunately inflation is about 5.9%. That means negative growth in actuality. I always wonder why investors never get that. The people printing more shares sure do.

[Steve2UK]

I've been comparing the baht against US$/UK£/Euro/Yen for the last few months and it seems to be generally maintaining strength against all of them.

The jury's still out on what's going to happen to the US$, but I think there's no doubt that the baht (along with most other Asian currencies) is far more influenced by what has happened/is due to happen with the artificially low Chinese yuan/remnimbi - which was allowed to move a little higher against the US$ and is widely expected to be allowed to move a good notch higher later this year......... taking most of the other Asian currencies with it. Steadily recovering yen is also a factor.............

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?sh...45entry699312 (post #50, particularly).

I'll be moving from the UK to LOS shortly - and I'm budgeting long(ish) term on UK£ = 60 baht. Sterling looks relatively stable compared to the US$ and I'm relieved that I don't have to worry about that rate combination (and sorry for those who do).

Last year, when I started to do my figures, the UK£ was generally buying about 74-75 baht. Even then, I decided to budget on getting 65 baht. Now that the rate is already bouncing along between 67-68, I think 60 baht is sensible. I think that any Brit who is depending long term on better than that is asking for trouble............

Edited March 31, 2006 by Steve2UK

[pazu]

The Thai Baht got stronger about January this year when the rumours of AIS selling to Singapore came out, then a large amount of money flowing into Thailand, which made the currency stronger. The finance ministry said the effect should be temporary at that time, and guessed that the rate would be back to normal after they formalized the deal. But recently the Thai Baht was still strong, the Finance Ministry thought "this is the best rate level for Thai economy"... (?)

[pazu]

Link here

And you can check the exchange of Thai Baht against most major currencies from the above link, you can also records of the past ten years.

Edited March 31, 2006 by pazu

[Hanky01]

The Thai baht is strong because Thai economic growth is still strong as well as a big positive trade balance. Furthermore government debts have been reduced significantly.

However, there are some signs that the baht will weaken later on in 2006.

Factors of influence are Malaysia's plan to attack Thailand's position as the Detroit of Asia, chicken flue, unrest in the south, investments on hold because of political turmoil and I can name a few more. Wait after July 2006 and you should be able to get a better rate for your Aussie dollares.

[thebear]

I would image everyone would have thought this would happen..

But does anyone know why the value of the Baht (esp against the Aussie dollar) has increased?

I thought this post was about hotel bookings being down, not the state of exchange rates!

[solesman]

The Thai baht is strong because Thai economic growth is still strong as well as a big positive trade balance. Furthermore government debts have been reduced significantly.

However, there are some signs that the baht will weaken later on in 2006.

Factors of influence are Malaysia's plan to attack Thailand's position as the Detroit of Asia, chicken flue, unrest in the south, investments on hold because of political turmoil and I can name a few more. Wait after July 2006 and you should be able to get a better rate for your Aussie dollares.

According to The Economist magazine Thailand has actually had a negative trade and current account balance for the past 12 months. There is little agreement among economists(and more importantly currency traders) whether this has any meaningful short term implications on the strength of a currency. Differential interest rates, inflation rates and economic growth are far more important in the short run for currency fluctuations. Thailand has had weakening growth, an increasing inflation differential vs the dollar, and also no significant change in the interest rate differential vs other countries. All in all it probably has more to do with a coat tails effect on the potential appreciation of the remnimbi.

[pjallittle]

I would image everyone would have thought this would happen..

But does anyone know why the value of the Baht (esp against the Aussie dollar) has increased?

Here's a composite view of the USD, Aus, NZ and Cdn $$ against the Baht based on up to the minute FX data.

1 US Dollar = 1.64436 New Zealand Dollar

1 New Zealand Dollar (NZD) = 0.60814 US Dollar (USD)

1 New Zealand Dollar = 23.67044 Thai Baht

1 Thai Baht (THB) = 0.04225 New Zealand Dollar (NZD)

1 US Dollar = 38.89071 Thai Baht

1 Thai Baht (THB) = 0.02571 US Dollar (USD)

1 Australian Dollar = 27.65246 Thai Baht

1 Thai Baht (THB) = 0.03616 Australian Dollar (AUD)

1 US Dollar = 1.40681 Australian Dollar

1 Australian Dollar (AUD) = 0.71083 US Dollar (USD)

1 US Dollar = 1.16757 Canadian Dollar

1 Canadian Dollar (CAD) = 0.85648 US Dollar (USD)

1 Canadian Dollar = 33.32052 Thai Baht

1 Thai Baht (THB) = 0.03001 Canadian Dollar (CAD)

If you do the math, the proportional ratios against the USD show that the Baht is tied to the USD, then again, so is the CDN $$. Canada's dollar has gained dramatically against the USD over the past year, they're getting worried about it as there's nothing that Canada has done to justify the increase other than heightened expectations because of their oilfields brought about by the cost of a barrel of oil. They've got trillions of gallons mixed with dirt that's harder to extract but it is being done and the cost effectiveness makes it worthwhile to pursue.

I'm 70 years old, my wife and I have been hither and you, all over China, So. America, Central America and the many other countries in Asia, even Myanmar. Likewise all over Turkey, Europe and the UK.

Never have we used traveler's checks, ATM's or anything but CASH. Not a hint of problems, either. I think there's too much hype about "safety" in foreign lands. No worse than, and probably better than in most major areas of the USA.

TC's and ATM charges are a total waste of money. It is what it is and if any of us understood why, we'd be economic geniuses.

All of the nonsense in Thailand will pass, the currencies will settle down, stop your worrying, it makes you all sound like a bunch of chickens cackling over nothing. Don't take that as an insult, but really, life's too short to sweat the small stuff.

t

[LaoPo]

I thought this post was about hotel bookings being down, not the state of exchange rates!

It is about Bangkok hotel bookings and it is funny to see how a thread can change into something completely different

Strange.

LaoPo

[moobie]

Going back, may I say that in the UK most periodicals seem to be advertising Malaysia as a holiday destination to go to rather than Thailand. This has been ongoing for at least 12 months.

[craigoaus]

I thought this post was about hotel bookings being down, not the state of exchange rates!

It is about Bangkok hotel bookings and it is funny to see how a thread can change into something completely different

Strange.

LaoPo

My apologies for introducing another topic to the thread but I thought that the two topics are in a way related as they are both affected by the political situation here at the moment and I was hoping to get some informed opinion (my thanks for those who did reply).

To get back to hotel bookings, on my last trip to Penang I found quite a few people having their holiday there (Penang) rather than going to Bali or Phuket which were the prefered past holiday destinations.

[shaunoro]

The aussie dollar was close to 31 baht in November. It is now 27 baht. I want to return to Thailand in June so I hope it goes up again. Given the political trouble you would think the Baht would drop.

Anyone on this group with banking experience who can shed light on why currencies go up and down so drastically??

If I change $100 aust. and normally get 3000 baht, it is a nasty loss to get only 2700 baht. Mind you, I was in Samui in 1985 and got 15 baht per dollar after it was floated.

I also get seriously pissed when you get slugged for each travellers cheque you change. Before it was a fee for the whole transaction but now it is 15 baht per cheque plus the other charges.

There seems no alternative to banks. Cash is good but risky as it can be lost or stolen. Has anyone noticed how some bank workers will actually try to keep your small change at exchange booths?

Last time I arrived in Phuket early in the morning the girl who worked in the bank was actually behind the taxi stand and was changing money for punters straight off the plane at a much lower rate. At 6am people did not have much choice.

I pulled her up about it as she was offering 27 baht per Aussie dollar when the rate was 30+ at the bank she was supposed to be running. Many people leave their small change as a tip which is fine but when the person just pockets it I ask for it back. Some bank workers even have a cup by the exchange window for this.

SO MUCH FOR WHINGING POMS!!!!!!!!