Poll: Predict the outcome of the U.S. presidential election (electoral college and after)

[NeverSure]

By Matt Egan
Published July 09, 2013
FOXBusiness

"Renewed jitters about China’s decelerating economy have raised questions about what happens to prices of metals and energy if the world’s most voracious consumer of commodities suddenly goes on a barebones diet.

Some economists are warning the recent liquidity squeeze that gripped Chinese lenders coupled with the new leadership’s aversion to stimulus raise the risk of a so-called “hard landing” that could briefly send the country’s gross domestic product growth tumbling to as low as 3%.

Such a dramatic slowdown for the globe’s No. 2 economy could spark steep selloffs in the commodities complex, sending copper spiraling 60% and crude oil retreating to $70 a barrel, Barclays (BCS) warned in a recent note to clients.

“Fears of a hard landing in China have now become one of the biggest concerns facing commodity markets,” Barclays said."

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[el jefe]

Contradicting that, later in the same opinion piece:

While Barclays is not calling for a hard landing in China and still sees GDP growth of 7.4% in 2013 and 2014, the investment bank now warns that a period where GDP growth plummets to 3% “at some point in the next three years is an increasingly likely scenario.”

and

Last week, J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) told clients to “overweight” exposure to commodities for the first time since 2010.

While acknowledging that “downside returns risk remains high,” J.P. Morgan said it believes “prices have fallen far enough for long enough to force involuntary cuts in production and spur fresh demand.”

Likewise, Helen Qiao, chief greater China economist at Morgan Stanley (MS), told clients that although hard-landing concerns are “sending shudders through global markets,” China’s growth likely “stabilized at low levels” in the second quarter, reducing fears that the slowdown would “derail the demand recovery.”

[Thereisnoif]

Chinese statistcs = poo

[trogers]

Contradicting that, later in the same opinion piece:

While Barclays is not calling for a hard landing in China and still sees GDP growth of 7.4% in 2013 and 2014, the investment bank now warns that a period where GDP growth plummets to 3% “at some point in the next three years is an increasingly likely scenario.”

and

Last week, J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) told clients to “overweight” exposure to commodities for the first time since 2010.

While acknowledging that “downside returns risk remains high,” J.P. Morgan said it believes “prices have fallen far enough for long enough to force involuntary cuts in production and spur fresh demand.”

Likewise, Helen Qiao, chief greater China economist at Morgan Stanley (MS), told clients that although hard-landing concerns are “sending shudders through global markets,” China’s growth likely “stabilized at low levels” in the second quarter, reducing fears that the slowdown would “derail the demand recovery.”

It is not difficult to avoid a hard landing. Follow Japan with near zero interest rates and and much printing of money...and the bottoming of the economy can be delayed for a couple of decades.

[yoshiwara]

Chinese statistcs = poo

HSBC produce a set of figures on the Chinese economy and can be used for comparative purposes.

[Gomyway]

When the Chinese economy is decelerating that means nothing else that the American and European consumer doesn't buy anymore or at least not that many like before.

The Chinese economy is mainly living from exports and so the question you should ask is, why don't the Americans and the Europeans buy anymore, what's their problem?

[yoshiwara]

When the Chinese economy is decelerating that means nothing else that the American and European consumer doesn't buy anymore or at least not that many like before.

The Chinese economy is mainly living from exports and so the question you should ask is, why don't the Americans and the Europeans buy anymore, what's their problem?

When you say decelerating you presumably mean accelerating at a slower rate. So not going backwards. So doesn't mean 'doesn't buy any more', yes?

[NeverSure]

Some people seem to have a hard time actually reading the OP.

Others emphasize GDP when shadow lending and the building of ghost cities and other stimulus counts in the GDP.

Others show little concern for China's lack of bank liquidity. What happened in the West when bank liquidity failed?

For several years China has been injecting stimulus in the building of high speed rail, highways, ghost cities and other things, all part of GDP.

GDP is just a number - not a sign of real economic growth.

[Naam]

When the Chinese economy is decelerating that means nothing else that the American and European consumer doesn't buy anymore or at least not that many like before.

The Chinese economy is mainly living from exports and so the question you should ask is, why don't the Americans and the Europeans buy anymore, what's their problem?

the Chinese economy was and still is based not only on exports but on huge improvements of the countries infrastructure. a slowdown of the latter means less growth without a reduction of exports by a single Dollar.