Moody's concerned over Thailand's rice pledging scheme

[Robbie Dye]

Leave it there too much longer it will need a RATTING CUT !

[Thai at Heart]

I see Mr white lie is again calling for a rate cut. The last time he got it - only a month or so ago - the Thai Baht plunged. Then he started talking about a rate increase.

Kittirat's 'vision' seems to be measured in days of 1 digit. The man is an idiot.

Yeah, it's great isn't it. Petrol up again tomorrow.

[thhMan]

Is Thailand getting all its infrastructure building money from expats who dont wear helmets? -sic-

[carib102]

Government debt to GDP has already gone from 41.6% to 44.3% in 2012 versus 2013 (so far). This is without the 2.2 trillion infrastructure borrowing. In what universe will it be possible to keep the debt to GDP ratio below 50%? I suppose K. Kittirat expects Chinese like GDP growth over the coming years? But, the Thai Finance Ministry recently cut growth estimates for 2013 from 4.8% to 4.5% (a far cry from the 7.5% GDP growth in China).

Oh well, looking back it appears to me that the baht always weakens when the debt to GDP ratio increases (http://thailandmusings.thaivisa.com/will-the-2-2-trillion-baht-loan-package-finally-cause-the-thai-baht-to-fall/). That has already been borne out by the increase in debt to GDP from 2012 to 2013 and the corresponding drop in the baht. I will happily accept more baht weakness.

[stoli]

Moodys doesn't understand Thainess.

Oh yes they do. Perfectly. They will still make a decision based on facts.

[GentlemanJim]

When will these people learn. They can bullshit the Thai people as much as they like but they can't bullshit World economists.

[virtualtraveller]

Moody's is a rating agency, it has no place suggesting to a govt on economic policy, it should ask for facts clarification before making a cold hard rating decision, end of story. If can come out with comments that the present policy direction might lead to a change in credit rating but that's about it. Kittirat meeting with them to 're-assure' is nonsense, it affects the impartiality of its decisions, and by extension its entire credibility.

[OzMick]

Moody's is a rating agency, it has no place suggesting to a govt on economic policy, it should ask for facts clarification before making a cold hard rating decision, end of story. If can come out with comments that the present policy direction might lead to a change in credit rating but that's about it. Kittirat meeting with them to 're-assure' is nonsense, it affects the impartiality of its decisions, and by extension its entire credibility.

I look at Moodys and see a concerned local who knows the bridge over the gorge has collapsed. He knows he has no right to stop the maniac bus driver, but morally, how can he not try.

[GeorgeO]

I can just imagine the Moody's representatives sitting there with heads in their hands after listening to these responses, which were no doubt accompanied by huge reassuring smiles from the Thai side of the table.

(i) as regards the huge household debt, the "banks will take care of the matter" (translation: "we don't want to get involved, even though the silly car and house buying schemes were our ideas, because we won't be able to blame someone else when it all goes tits up"); and:

(ii) state lending mainly involved accumulated debt to "loan sharks" which is of benefit to the people.... <deleted>? How does someone in a senior position in government make such a statement and believe that it is sufficient to settle the matter?!

And then, to top it all, Kittirat comes out with a statement telling everyone that there is no problem and Moody's have no intention of cutting Thailand's rating....!?

I'll bet the Moody's guy are sitting in a hotel restaurant recounting their meeting and having a good laugh about it...!

[boomerangutang]

Wasn't Moody's one of the top shelf rating services which kept whistling 'zip i dee du da, zip e dee day.....' when Wall Street Execs kept getting triple A ratings for junk bonds and credit swaps?! Both Moody's and PTP have credibility problems, though Shinawatres' - ooops, I mean PTP's is worse.

[TomTao]

Deputy Prime Minister/Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong said Moody's sought details about the government's rice pledging scheme.

So when and if the government hands over the books that detail all transactions relating to the rice pledging scheme, which books will be handed over, the cooked books or the real books?

[animatic]

I think they have no idea how out of their league they are in trying to B S Moody's

"He added that state lending mainly involved dealing with accumulated debt owed to loan sharks and that benefits people."

That was what Thaksin did. Problem was it turned into new motor bikes and electronic toys such as new state of the art phones.

A great plan if the Government hands the money over to the loan shark directly.

True, but in the end the money flows back up hill to the Liege lords pockets,

so it does what it's supposed to and feeds the troupes on what isn't creamed of by the big boss's clan.

Anyone here imagine, even for a moment, that the loan sharks don't pay off those above?

[kimamey]

He added that state lending mainly involved dealing with accumulated debt owed to loan sharks and that benefits people. (MCOT online news)

--------------------

What?

Please run that statement by me again, I don't understand.

I think he means state lending is mainly to pay off loans to loan sharks which since it's at a lower rate will benefit those who are in debt to loan sharks.

I have no idea if it's true though.

[kimamey]

He added that state lending mainly involved dealing with accumulated debt owed to loan sharks and that benefits people. (MCOT online news)

--------------------

What?

Please run that statement by me again, I don't understand.

I think he means state lending is mainly to pay off loans to loan sharks which since it's at a lower rate will benefit those who are in debt to loan sharks.

I have no idea if it's true though.

[klauskunkel]

Speaking to reporters after meeting with Moody's executives today, Deputy Prime Minister/Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong said Moody's sought details about the government's rice pledging scheme.

Yingluck: "Details! Everybody looking for details!! Don't you understand Thainess?!! Stupid farang...."

[metisdead]

A post in violation of this forum rule has been removed:

3) Not to post in a manner that is vulgar, obscene or profane.

[bubblegum]

All you folks wanting details and truths from the gov. why don't you do your own search

http://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-announces-reviews-for-downgrade-of-three-banks-subdebt-ratings--PR_274101

[rametindallas]

No indication for rating cut: Kittiratt

Moody's will not threaten Thailand with a ratings cut. The very act of inquiring should

be enough of a hint to the government that there is concern among the larger banking

community. This is Moody's second inquiry; there will not be a third. Everyone acts all

surprised when their country's rating is cut; denial is not just a river in Egypt. When

Thailand's own central banker is warning that the government's policies are unsustainable,

what is Moody's supposed to think? Why should the ratings companies believe Mr. Kittiratt?

If it takes a rating cut to stop this government from borrowing 2.2 - 2.5 trillion Baht then maybe

it's better for the country than the government squandering that money.

[rubl]

"Mr Kittiratt said he assured Moody's that the government's rice pledging policy implementation would not cause a heavy burden on state coffers given that the budget has already been allocated and there are cash flows from the release of government's rice stockpiles."

The budget has been allocated? The MoF probably means the 500 billion not so revolving fund lent from BAAC, a fund which needed a triffling 200 billion extra to get to 700 billion over 2011/2012 and 2012/2013.

Last month we had a Minister of the PM Office tell us over 2011/2012 and in billions 352 spent, 59 sold, 156 still in stock, 137 missing. Interesting cash flow indeed. 2012/2013 promises to be even better

[aussiebebe]

Wasn't Moody's one of the top shelf rating services which kept whistling 'zip i dee du da, zip e dee day.....' when Wall Street Execs kept getting triple A ratings for junk bonds and credit swaps?! Both Moody's and PTP have credibility problems, though Shinawatres' - ooops, I mean PTP's is worse.

Wall Street paid Moody's to give the ratings. Nearly three quarters of the mortgage-backed securities that Moody's rated AAA in 2006 had been downgraded to junk by 2010 - it's business has been based on an 'issuer-pays' model since the 1970s with all the conflict of interest concerns that such practice raises. I'm sure Moody's feels quite at home in Thailand; pay 4 play.

[hellodolly]

He added that state lending mainly involved dealing with accumulated debt owed to loan sharks and that benefits people. (MCOT online news)

--------------------

What?

Please run that statement by me again, I don't understand.

I think he means state lending is mainly to pay off loans to loan sharks which since it's at a lower rate will benefit those who are in debt to loan sharks.

I have no idea if it's true though.

Nether does he

"Mr Kittiratt said he assured Moody's that the government's rice pledging policy implementation would not cause a heavy burden on state coffers given that the budget has already been allocated and there are cash flows from the release of government's rice stockpiles."

The budget has been allocated? The MoF probably means the 500 billion not so revolving fund lent from BAAC, a fund which needed a triffling 200 billion extra to get to 700 billion over 2011/2012 and 2012/2013.

Last month we had a Minister of the PM Office tell us over 2011/2012 and in billions 352 spent, 59 sold, 156 still in stock, 137 missing. Interesting cash flow indeed. 2012/2013 promises to be even better

Do they think they are going to get away with telling Moody's that the price they are getting on the Government sale of rice to other Governments is a secret and they can't tell them how much they received?

Edited July 16, 2013 by hellodolly

[Just1Voice]

Do they think they are going to get away with telling Moody's that the price they are getting on the Government sale of rice to other Governments is a secret and they can't tell them how much they received?

Yes, unfortunately, that is exactly what they think.

[blazes]

How much longer can we all (the whole world) keep on scrabbling around in this deep sewer of corruption?

Take Tim Geithner (please): here's a guy [former US Sec of the Treasury] who makes 3 speeches to various banks in the US. From one he receives $200k, and from the other two he receives $100k each. Not bad work, making speeches, if you can get it.

Geithner bailed out these banks with taxpayers' money. Here is his reward. How easy it is to cut a cheque for $100k. All legal, and above board.

Corruption in Thailand is peanuts compared to this.

[Cats4ever]

_{Moodys will just look at the hard facts and metrics}

Does anyone take Moodys or for that matter the other two rating agencies seriously after their triple A rating of CDOs and other financial devices leading in to 2008? They should have done what Arthur Andersen did after the Enron debacle.

Edited July 17, 2013 by Cats4ever

[Thai at Heart]

 

_{Moodys will just look at the hard facts and metrics}

Does anyone take Moodys or for that matter the other two rating agencies seriously after their triple A rating of CDOs and other financial devices leading in to 2008? They should have done what Arthur Andersen did after the Enron debacle.

 

They would be loving it if Moody's was saying the whole thing was fantastic, though, wouldn't they.

[Bagwan]

Moodys doesn't understand Thainess.

Join the club.

[boomerangutang]

Moodys doesn't understand Thainess.

Join the club.

Here's a little slice of 'Thainess': My Thai partner and I arranged and brokered the sale of a house. The seller was a just-retired Big Shot from Bkk, former Minister of Ag or something like that. Told us that he played golf with Thaksin and top military brass, etc. When we were all at the bank, along with the buyer, and the stacks of money were being counted out, Mr. Former Minister came over to me and my partner with his most charming grin plastered on his face, and said, "I know we agreed to 3% commission, but you guys will be happy with two and a half percent, won't you?" .....he gave us the smaller-than-agreed amount, and quickly exited the building.