Hi All,

Im really worried at the moment.

I have just bought my g/f some property and I need to pay the remainder (500,000THB) in June.

Since last Summer, when the Ex rate was 75THB = 1GBP, it is now about 65THB, and falling.

Can anyone advise me on why the THB is so strong, and is this trend xpected to continue in near future? My 'holiday fund' is dissappearing every day and do I buy currency now, or wait?

Thanks

Hard to say but if you go on historic trends sterling should go up in May.

Hard to say but if you go on historic trends sterling should go up in May.

You meen it should have gone up by may...

This time last year it was around the 73/74 mark...

Im ready to transfer a fair amount myself, but I would hate to see a sudden rise the days/weeks after doing the deed..

I will probably sit it out for another fortnight and see what happens

The question you need to ask is.

If the Bht/GBP rate falls lower than it is now can you sustain the payment?

You have a commitment to meet, saving money is of course preferable, but can you risk the Bht/GBP rate going lower? If not, then pay and forget the money you 'might have save', weigh it against 'not meeting the commitment'.

That is exactly what I had to do on 2 Million baht 2 weeks ago. I waited and waited in the hope that there would be a few points recovery but the trend was downward. In the end I just had to transfer to meet the contract obligations 67.64 which looking at todays figure of 66.56 ain't bad. However on Dec 12 when I did my calculations and signed the contract the rate was 73, unfortunetely I needed to set-up a company etc etc at that time. Just got to look on the bright side as the crystal ball can throw out good & bad :-)

Edited April 9, 200620 yr by jflundy

I'm exchanging dollars and I'm waiting hoping for history to repeat itself. I can hold out for a couple more months.

I'm exchanging dollars and I'm waiting hoping for history to repeat itself. I can hold out for a couple more months.

Yo, tambien. I'm trying to decide if I should roll over a US$10,000 certificate at around 5.25% - new rate; convert it to baht; risk half of it on a Chinese mutual fund as yuan; or do a combination of those.

I'm exchanging dollars and I'm waiting hoping for history to repeat itself. I can hold out for a couple more months.

Yo, tambien. I'm trying to decide if I should roll over a US$10,000 certificate at around 5.25% - new rate; convert it to baht; risk half of it on a Chinese mutual fund as yuan; or do a combination of those.

Yes and you could put the other 50% into Roubles and that would complete your Russian Roulette.

Rollover the certificate and get your 5.25%

does anybody know a website where i can compare and look at currency comparisons over the past 12 months.

e.g gbp/euro

gpb /bht

euro/bht

euro/yen

usd/yuan

yen/yuan

etc,etc.etc.

the bbc site only does comparisons to the ukp.

does anybody know a website where i can compare and look at currency comparisons over the past 12 months.

e.g gbp/euro

gpb /bht

euro/bht

euro/yen

usd/yuan

yen/yuan

etc,etc.etc.

the bbc site only does comparisons to the ukp.

http://finance.yahoo.com/

I believe that the Thai interest rates have just been raised by .25 to 4.75%

I believe that the Thai interest rates have just been raised by .25 to 4.75%

The higher the rate...the closer a devaluation comes insight...

Keep your foreign funds as long as possible.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/HC30Ae04.html

LaoPo

interesting article , first comforting thing i've read about the strength of the baht amidst all the gloom and doom.

interesting article , first comforting thing i've read about the strength of the baht amidst all the gloom and doom.

Comforting...yes, for expats and tourists.

But foreign investors will sit and wait...in the meantime exports are slowing dramatically and that's bad for Thailand and its people.

And...investors have other (country) options too...a lot of options.

They (investors) are afraid what's coming next....and that 'next' is something nobody can predict.

Political and economical unrest (in any given country) is a 'deadly' issue for investors.

LaoPo

Comforting...yes, for expats and tourists.

yes , thats my kind of comfort.

i have little to do with the world of business and commerce , and i need an exchange rate in the seventies , or at a pinch in the high sixties , to keep me happy.

hopefully we will be seeing that again before too long.

but as you say , nobody can predict the future

interesting article , first comforting thing i've read about the strength of the baht amidst all the gloom and doom.

Comforting...yes, for expats and tourists.

well thank god i am an expat - its all good news for sending money back to the UK!!!

Comforting...yes, for expats and tourists.

yes , thats my kind of comfort.

i have little to do with the world of business and commerce , and i need an exchange rate in the seventies , or at a pinch in the high sixties , to keep me happy.

hopefully we will be seeing that again before too long.

but as you say , nobody can predict the future

Interesting replies, many thanks;

What I am trying to esatblish iand understand is what is DRIVING the Baht so high this year; is it simple market forces such as import/export; are many Farangs bringing money into the Thai economy for investment? Tourism promoted after the Tsunami?

Should the increase in interest rate devalue the Baht, or strengthen it?

I would have thought that the political turmoil would decrease the Baht?

Also, I would have thought that due to this Summers Football World Cup then many young Europeans would flock to Germany as opposed to Bangkok?

I have a month or so until I need to complete the transaction so Im going to dig me heels in and keep my fingers crossed!

Should the increase in interest rate devalue the Baht, or strengthen it? (Strengthen it)

I would have thought that the political turmoil would decrease the Baht? (It is comming)

Also, I would have thought that due to this Summers Football World Cup then many young Europeans would flock to Germany as opposed to Bangkok? (They are)

I have a month or so until I need to complete the transaction so Im going to dig me heels in and keep my fingers crossed!

(me too I have untill late August this year to send over my next 1,000,000 bhat. But by then the World might have ended or the sky fall in ) Oh but for sure by then England would have won the World Cup

The Thai exporters are hoping that the government will devalue or stabilize the baht at current levels, but the govt's hands are tied due to the rising oil prices, hovering near 28b/litre, and likely to breach 30b in the near future. With a weak currency, you have to pay more for the oil, which affects minimum wage workers in LOS. Even BKK workers are grumbling at the 1b rise in bus fares because the wages remain the same. Even with the recent political turmoil, the baht remained strong. With billions of foreign direct investment(FDI) incl Shin Corp into LOS this year, the baht will continue to buck the expected trend, unless the govt or George Soros intervenes.

I believe that the Thai interest rates have just been raised by .25 to 4.75%

The higher the rate...the closer a devaluation comes insight...

Keep your foreign funds as long as possible.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/HC30Ae04.html

LaoPo

Interest rates are going higher to help fight inflation, partly cause by higher oil prices, higher import prices and partly caused by 5 years of pump priming the economy by dear leader.

Raising the interest rate makes the baht relatively more attactive, and thus more people buy it. Thus its price goes up and it becomes stronger.

If they had not raised interest rates and not tried to control inflation, then THAT would have increased pressure on futher devaluation. In summary:

Higher interest rates = stonger baht

Unchecked inflation = weaker baht.

We are seeing the former, not the latter.

I believe that the Thai interest rates have just been raised by .25 to 4.75%

The higher the rate...the closer a devaluation comes insight...

Keep your foreign funds as long as possible.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/HC30Ae04.html

LaoPo

Interest rates are going higher to help fight inflation, partly cause by higher oil prices, higher import prices and partly caused by 5 years of pump priming the economy by dear leader.

Raising the interest rate makes the baht relatively more attactive, and thus more people buy it. Thus its price goes up and it becomes stronger.

If they had not raised interest rates and not tried to control inflation, then THAT would have increased pressure on futher devaluation. In summary:

Higher interest rates = stonger baht

Unchecked inflation = weaker baht.

We are seeing the former, not the latter.

With respect, but I think the Baht will dive within a year..and quite deep.

Thailand is close to bankruptcy with its (also private) borrowing on an extremely large scale, much larger than the investments/capital inflow into the country in 2005.

Apart from that, exports are slowing down also badly mainly because of the fierce competition from a.o. India and China.

Thailand is even importing rice....

At the moment, yes, higher interest means higher Baht...but, based on what? Strong economy? Strong political guidance?

I would think it's merely speculation since the country (economical/political) as a whole is in deep trouble...very deep.

We'll see.

LaoPo

I wonder to what extent the rising Bt results from the weakness of Western economies rather than any particular set of circumstances in Thailand. The US and UK have spent goodness knows how much money on wars since 1991 and, at least in the UK, I believe that it has taken it's toll.

Added to that, the UK is running out of natural gas and oil and has little else in the way of energy sources other than wind, waves and decrepit nuclear installations. The country has an aging population that has been robbed of much of its pension fund yield and no plans seem to have been made for the economy to support either an older workforce or more pensioners. We are beginning to see that the UK economy has been in recession for, at least, some months but the fact was hidden by the manipulation of statistics. The NHS is failing badly because of underfunding and mis-management of budgets and human resources. We have now just heard that the Ryton car plant is to close. That's just the latest of a string of closures and mass redundancies during the last 12 months or so.

In contrast, there is foreign investment in Thailand as anyone in Korat Province, for example, will know. Clothing and electronics plants are springing up and people are migrating to that area to work. No need these days to go to either Pattaya or the West in order to earn money to send home.

I suspect that a result of all this will be that the Bt rides high for quite a while. I for one will be spending less on our plans there until things change and I anticipate a long wait!

does anybody know a website where i can compare and look at currency comparisons over the past 12 months.

e.g gbp/euro

gpb /bht

euro/bht

euro/yen

usd/yuan

yen/yuan

etc,etc.etc.

the bbc site only does comparisons to the ukp.

http://finance.yahoo.com/

Watch yer dosh goo up or......down

Time period: 03/19/06 to 04/19/06.

Daily averages: 03/19/2006 68.41050

03/20/2006 68.41380

03/21/2006 68.13260

03/22/2006 67.99910

03/23/2006 68.09090

03/24/2006 68.05740

03/25/2006 67.91230

03/26/2006 68.24210

03/27/2006 68.24840

03/28/2006 68.05090

03/29/2006 68.0070

03/30/2006 67.81150

03/31/2006 67.66130

04/01/2006 67.69520

04/02/2006 67.8110

04/03/2006 67.82910

04/04/2006 67.46950

04/05/2006 67.54370

04/06/2006 67.3210

04/07/2006 67.07770

04/08/2006 66.83880

04/09/2006 66.74930

04/10/2006 66.75820

04/11/2006 66.51440

04/12/2006 66.35020

04/13/2006 66.72390

04/14/2006 66.8240

04/15/2006 66.73060

04/16/2006 66.9690

04/17/2006 66.97250

04/18/2006 67.01910

04/19/2006 67.29340

http://www.oanda.com/convert/fxhistory

For all the guys that were around then...this is what it was £-Sterling ...10 years ago

....Soooooo

Time period: 03/19/96 to 04/19/96.

Daily averages: 03/19/1996 38.64760

03/20/1996 38.81370

03/21/1996 38.83710

03/22/1996 38.79710

03/23/1996 38.84240

03/24/1996 38.79180

03/25/1996 38.51390

03/26/1996 38.4890

03/27/1996 38.3850

03/28/1996 38.43050

03/29/1996 38.52020

03/30/1996 38.49250

03/31/1996 38.55430

04/01/1996 38.54630

04/02/1996 38.53160

04/03/1996 38.54920

04/04/1996 38.52630

04/05/1996 38.63250

04/06/1996 38.61990

04/07/1996 38.63910

04/08/1996 38.70370

04/09/1996 38.57730

04/10/1996 38.49250

04/11/1996 38.29090

04/12/1996 38.31930

04/13/1996 38.32680

04/14/1996 38.28120

04/15/1996 38.20780

04/16/1996 38.23320

04/17/1996 38.17850

04/18/1996 38.23680

04/19/1996 38.39780