Thai Baht slides further against US$

[Thaiaddict01]

doesn't it have something to do with FOMC meeting earlier? about tapering on QE? no one mentioned about FOMC except the TH gov.

anyways am I right about this, they gonna end QE slowly so in the next month to a year or however long they totally end the QE, THB gonna really depreciate, so wire some USD over to TH bank and leave it there, exchange to THB when you need to. Like someone said earlier baht vs pound went down so their pension went up by 14.x%.

[HUAHIN62]

The Thai economy is in ruins, thanks to the fiscal mismanagement of the PTP led government. Foreign investor are fleeing like rats from a sinking ship, while the cabinet meander away with bulging pocket, leaving the Thai taxpayer to foot the bill. But its all mai pen rai till the time it takes a days wages to buy a serve of som tam, only by then there will be a wall of security keeping them in check.

Please grow up and get some common sense in the process. The tapering will hit all markets including the US. The US 10 yr treasury yields have nearly doubled in 3 months and the stocks are sliding. Emerging markets currencies are all under pressure. As Thailands GDP rely on 70% exports and 8% tourism the depreciation of the Baht is great news. The Baht is in any case now only where it was a year ago and then no one shouted doomsday. Remember 3 months ago everyone pleaded for a weaker Baht and now we have it. Imported inflation makes out a very small portion of Thailands total inflation and thus your view of som tam costing a days wages is just pure insanity.

[BlackJack]

The Thai economy is in ruins, thanks to the fiscal mismanagement of the PTP led government. Foreign investor are fleeing like rats from a sinking ship, while the cabinet meander away with bulging pocket, leaving the Thai taxpayer to foot the bill. But its all mai pen rai till the time it takes a days wages to buy a serve of som tam, only by then there will be a wall of security keeping them in check.

Please grow up and get some common sense in the process. The tapering will hit all markets including the US. The US 10 yr treasury yields have nearly doubled in 3 months and the stocks are sliding. Emerging markets currencies are all under pressure. As Thailands GDP rely on 70% exports and 8% tourism the depreciation of the Baht is great news. The Baht is in any case now only where it was a year ago and then no one shouted doomsday. Remember 3 months ago everyone pleaded for a weaker Baht and now we have it. Imported inflation makes out a very small portion of Thailands total inflation and thus your view of som tam costing a days wages is just pure insanity.

if people are so sure the baht will fall then short it

[Joe Mamma]

When i first came to Thailand 16 years ago, the baht was 52 to 1 dollar US. Gold was in the high 400's.

So the baht has still shown strength in long term thinking, but most countries and politicians think in short terms, like printing currency non-stop.

All short term results arrive from same same thinking. The gold will melt further and the people will panic.

[slipperylobster]

Oh noes, the sky is rising. The sky is RISING !! Run for your ATMs/Exchange Booths ! Buy something now, sell something later !!

....not girls and beer ???

[hawker9000]

doesn't it have something to do with FOMC meeting earlier? about tapering on QE? no one mentioned about FOMC except the TH gov.

anyways am I right about this, they gonna end QE slowly so in the next month to a year or however long they totally end the QE, THB gonna really depreciate, so wire some USD over to TH bank and leave it there, exchange to THB when you need to. Like someone said earlier baht vs pound went down so their pension went up by 14.x%.

Outside of business accounts, is it possible to have a non-baht account in a Thai bank? I have a savings account with one, but wasn't aware that I could have anything but baht in it. I can transfer another currency, and the bank will do the currency exchange. Or I can set up a forex account somewhere to do the currency exchange there and deposit that. And I think businesses engaged in import/export can set up foreign currency accounts (probably with some sort of certificate or approval I'm guessing). But can a private person just for his own use do that?

[NCC1701A]

Asian FX Bloodbath Continues; Stocks Slammed As Treasury Yields Push Higher

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-22/asian-fx-bloodbath-continues-stocks-slammed-treasury-yields-push-higher

Edited August 22, 2013 by NCC1701A

[wolf5370]

Ajazeera last night stated Thailand is in recession (2 month negative growth) - also that China is suffering from bad debt and various other SE countries in decline (include Phi).

[wolf5370]

of course, with all the issues going on and mismanagement of Pheau Thai. Xenophobic policies that contradict ASEAN.

What are the xenophobic policies?

Now they wouldn't tell a foreigner that would they

[khunken]

The Thai economy is in ruins, thanks to the fiscal mismanagement of the PTP led government. Foreign investor are fleeing like rats from a sinking ship, while the cabinet meander away with bulging pocket, leaving the Thai taxpayer to foot the bill. But its all mai pen rai till the time it takes a days wages to buy a serve of som tam, only by then there will be a wall of security keeping them in check.

Please grow up and get some common sense in the process. The tapering will hit all markets including the US. The US 10 yr treasury yields have nearly doubled in 3 months and the stocks are sliding. Emerging markets currencies are all under pressure. As Thailands GDP rely on 70% exports and 8% tourism the depreciation of the Baht is great news. The Baht is in any case now only where it was a year ago and then no one shouted doomsday. Remember 3 months ago everyone pleaded for a weaker Baht and now we have it. Imported inflation makes out a very small portion of Thailands total inflation and thus your view of som tam costing a days wages is just pure insanity.

If you're going to criticise someone else's opinion it would be a good idea to get your facts right.

First the 10-year treasury yield in the US has gone from 1,82 to 2.83 (Aug 17 '12 to Aug 16 '13) - that's not anyway near doubling.

Second US stocks are not 'sliding'. They are close to an all-time high and have had a small correction, more due to exhaustion than anything else. The trend is up.

Third a year ago the Baht was at 31.5 to the US$, so going over 32 is now weaker.

Fourth anyone who buys local food in a market - as I do - knows that inflation has risen dramatically this year and the weaker Baht will boost that trend. Government figures are just unbelievable and leave out food & transport (not the only government that does that fiddle). The weaker Baht will increase the cost of transport with much of Thailand's oil being imported.

Tourism will of course benefit but that will increase the strain on the popular areas. In summary it's a mixed blessing for Thailand but very positive for resident expats.

[GentlemanJim]

The baht's not really down THAT much.........yet..... I mean it's an improvement over 27B/$ and I'll take it, but it'd have to break 35, or maybe even 40, and fairly quickly, before I'd be impressed enough to assess the Thai economy "in ruins" with social disorder just around the corner. Yeah, completely subjective... Vis-à-vis the USD and European currencies, I can't get past the thought that this may be a race to the bottom.

The shifting of an economies currency value by 12% + in only 3-4 days is a move that you should be impressed with!

doesn't it have something to do with FOMC meeting earlier? about tapering on QE? no one mentioned about FOMC except the TH gov.

anyways am I right about this, they gonna end QE slowly so in the next month to a year or however long they totally end the QE, THB gonna really depreciate, so wire some USD over to TH bank and leave it there, exchange to THB when you need to. Like someone said earlier baht vs pound went down so their pension went up by 14.x%.

Outside of business accounts, is it possible to have a non-baht account in a Thai bank? I have a savings account with one, but wasn't aware that I could have anything but baht in it. I can transfer another currency, and the bank will do the currency exchange. Or I can set up a forex account somewhere to do the currency exchange there and deposit that. And I think businesses engaged in import/export can set up foreign currency accounts (probably with some sort of certificate or approval I'm guessing). But can a private person just for his own use do that?

You can but it is very expensive, are you wanting to make money on currency exchange? what is the purpose of you having multi-currency accounts in Thailand? The banks charge a lot of money. You are better off having multi-currency accounts off-shore. For convenience, I looked at multi-currency accounts with the Bangkok bank. They charged 1% fee for transferring money across the world! So for 100K GBP that costs a 1000 in fees. The Swiss bank charge me 25 pounds!

[johnlandy]

The Thai economy is in ruins, thanks to the fiscal mismanagement of the PTP led government. Foreign investor are fleeing like rats from a sinking ship, while the cabinet meander away with bulging pocket, leaving the Thai taxpayer to foot the bill. But its all mai pen rai till the time it takes a days wages to buy a serve of som tam, only by then there will be a wall of security keeping them in check.

And they will lay the blame on everyone, other than their own fiscal policies and mismanagement.

Again it's the farang I'm pleased that we are good for something

[denby45]

The baht's not really down THAT much.........yet..... I mean it's an improvement over 27B/$ and I'll take it, but it'd have to break 35, or maybe even 40, and fairly quickly, before I'd be impressed enough to assess the Thai economy "in ruins" with social disorder just around the corner. Yeah, completely subjective... Vis-à-vis the USD and European currencies, I can't get past the thought that this may be a race to the bottom.

I agree and if you look at the charts you will see a definite tripple top scenario USD/THB. I hope it can break through significantly then on upwards.

As far as the Bernankie affair, he can only hold down interest rates and continue his spending spree for so long. The markets will decide in the end and are already pushing up interest rates despite the best efforts of helicopter Ben and his compatriots.

Den

[wolf5370]

The stock market investors fleeing, is always only the first sign of trouble! Believe me - Any international company´s in Thailand are definitely seriously considering, if they should move out, and some of them definitely will. Cambodia seems a lot more attractive at the moment. Thailand has an unstable ecomony, unlimited corruption, unstable various governments, unstable population (Red shirts, Yellow shirts, Multicoilored shirts, White masks etc.) and currently an amnesty law on the way, which could possibly ignite the peoples anger, and make the Red shirts riot´s in 2010 look like a boy scout´s camp.

t30_23468987.jpgt17_23466815.jpgt39_23468729.jpg

If a company is going to go through the painful process of moving from Thailand due to risks, they are as such as hell not going to go to Cambodia. Cambodia has little to no road infrastructure, corruption is rife there, and if recent elections are anything to go by, it is a short distance from some of their own political strife. When Hun Sen is finally removed I am sure they will go through a painful period of politics as the various parties, families, armies fight for a piece of the pie.

Don´t get me wrong. I personally don´t support the idea of moving to Cambodia. Probably has numerous reasons to stay out, but at least that´s stable.

A company´s customers need to be able to trust in a stable delivery and stable prices. But that is more than difficult for a company to guarantee their customers, when the country they are producing in, is constantly in the International news for all the wrong reasons.

How many foreign companies here that export, do so under a Thai brand? or even mentioning Thailand other than some sub text somewhere saying "Made in Thailand". Most of the world's hard drives are made here, but ask someone at home and they will say Japanese. Mostly it is just production and assembly here and even if there was a military coup tomorrow these companies would be protected - and they know it. Political strife are always a risk in any country where production costs are very low - one comes with the other if you think about it. I would suggest most foreign companies here couldn't give a rat's arse what colour shirt the PM wears as long as their deals stay in place and the price stays low. What hurts them more is a high baht rate - this costs them more to pay workers in real terms (the biggest cost usually) and rentals/premiums/taxes/and so on are all bottom line chippers - a low Baht rate keeps their profits healthier - I would say there are more smiles in those board rooms right now than frowns.

Cambodia would not be a destination either due to poor infrastructure - Vietnam, Indonesia, Mayasia (or given time Myanmar perhaps) would look better.

[hansnl]

of course, with all the issues going on and mismanagement of Pheau Thai. Xenophobic policies that contradict ASEAN.

What are the xenophobic policies?

Still asleep, or maybe just awake?

[X pat]

Slid baby slid.

[Straight8]

Using the rate of 31.82, my fixed income had increased by 4,483 baht over last month at at the same time. Not a staggering amount, but, hey, ever little baht, or is that "bit", helps. lol

With some good negotiating skills, that should cover your night's drink and some LT at Nana or SC, take your pick.

[Torrens54]

Long may it continue to fall.

It has been running at a "manufactured" rate for far too long and we know the people who have been pocketing a fortune as a result but as a guest in this country, I'll refrain from further comment on this matter.

[Nooky2]

This is bad news. If the dollar gets too strong those dreaded Americans may start to come back again. I thought the plan was to get the Chinese in here for a higher quality tourist. Or was that Japan, I forget now, it changes so much.

[Just1Voice]

Using the rate of 31.82, my fixed income had increased by 4,483 baht over last month at at the same time. Not a staggering amount, but, hey, ever little baht, or is that "bit", helps. lol

With some good negotiating skills, that should cover your night's drink and some LT at Nana or SC, take your pick.

Well, that might be appropriate for some, but since I don't drink, and have never set foot in a bar in the 5+ years I've been here, and am happily married and living in Chiang Mai, it really doesn't apply to me. I'm thinking more along the lines of the additional money I can save for the new Honda CB500 I'm wanting to pay cash for.

Have nice day

[tuyatim]

I don't know what all the fuss is about. In March 2009 it was at around 36THB / US$. It strengthened to below 30 in late 2010 before weakening slightly again to nearly 32 in Jan 2012. By May this year it had again strengthened to 28.6. OK, so there's been a small fall since then, but it's still much stronger than it was before the middle of 2010 and the country seemed to survive for all the years before that. Similar rises and falls have been seen against GBP. The short-term financiers who regularly make a mess of world economics are at it again. Just ignore them.

[12DrinkMore]

The whole objective of the western world is to lower the value of their currency so they can compete with the Chinese exports; who seems to consider it most critical to keep the value of the yen low; so why O why are there so many on the forum so quick to brand that the current Thai Government is incompetent and the result of the problem of the falling Baht. Several years ago it used to hover around 40 to the dollar; this is where it needs to be; this will help boost their exports and keep hold of inflation.

I am not so sure about the "keeping hold of inflation" bit.

A weaker THB will lead to higher import costs, and somebody will take that hit.

[MESmith]

A weaker THB will lead to higher import costs, and somebody will take that hit.

I don't recall a strong baht leading to a lowering of price of imported goods in supermarkets, but you can bet your house (OK, your wife's house) that a weaker baht will pump up imported food prices

[techboy]

The Thai economy is in ruins, thanks to the fiscal mismanagement of the PTP led government. Foreign investor are fleeing like rats from a sinking ship, while the cabinet meander away with bulging pocket, leaving the Thai taxpayer to foot the bill. But its all mai pen rai till the time it takes a days wages to buy a serve of som tam, only by then there will be a wall of security keeping them in check.

Clearly you have Zero idea of what you are talking about and this is a bit of typical uninformed Thai bashing. I believe that you could not read an equity chart to save your life. It may be wrong to ridicule someone for being ignorant but when they attack other people with their stupidity they deserve anything that comes at them. Yes I am referring to the author of your post. FYI emerging economy investments in general have been getting beat up badly recently and yesterday speculation about US Federal Reserve actions caused a panic sell off in them. FYI Thailand's investable market funds have been and still are in an uptrend since 2009. FYI During the past twelve monthsThailand Exchange Traded Funds have outperformed gold by 13-15% even after taking a tremendous thrashing since last May when emerging economy funds crashed. Waiting for your next technical commentary on the Thai economy with urgent attention.

[metisdead]

A post in violation of fair use policy has been removed. It is generally accepted, but not written into law, that quoting the first two or three sentences of an article and giving a link to the source is considered fair use and not a violation of copyright.

[techboy]

Oh noes, the sky is rising. The sky is RISING !! Run for your ATMs/Exchange Booths ! Buy something now, sell something later !!

Turn your baht to gold to maintain its value

"Turn your baht to gold to maintain its value." This grandé investment advice coming from same guy who just a few lines up gave his expert commentary on the Thai economy. Gold one year chart below. Thai basher think machine in action.

[pomchop]

Cue all the currency and economic experts. Cue the Thai, American, Chinese bashers. Cue the gold pushers.

OR

Just accept that in economic terms over time for most every country on the planet that THE TIDE COMES IN AND THE TIDE GOES OUT.

[AdamRich]

The whole objective of the western world is to lower the value of their currency so they can compete with the Chinese exports; who seems to consider it most critical to keep the value of the yen low; so why O why are there so many on the forum so quick to brand that the current Thai Government is incompetent and the result of the problem of the falling Baht. Several years ago it used to hover around 40 to the dollar; this is where it needs to be; this will help boost their exports and keep hold of inflation.

If it ever goes to 40, I will be officially in the market to buy a condo.

[hellodolly]

The Thai economy is in ruins, thanks to the fiscal mismanagement of the PTP led government. Foreign investor are fleeing like rats from a sinking ship, while the cabinet meander away with bulging pocket, leaving the Thai taxpayer to foot the bill. But its all mai pen rai till the time it takes a days wages to buy a serve of som tam, only by then there will be a wall of security keeping them in check.

Are you referring to foreign investors in the stock market? Do you have any evidence of other fleeing the LOS? Have any major foreign investors such as the Japanese companies departed Thailand? Or are you simply referring to the stock markets? if so, that is happening throughout the emerging markets, and not just in Thailand.

The stock market investors fleeing, is always only the first sign of trouble! Believe me - Any international company´s in Thailand are definitely seriously considering, if they should move out, and some of them definitely will. Cambodia seems a lot more attractive at the moment. Thailand has an unstable ecomony, unlimited corruption, unstable various governments, unstable population (Red shirts, Yellow shirts, Multicoilored shirts, White masks etc.) and currently an amnesty law on the way, which could possibly ignite the peoples anger, and make the Red shirts riot´s in 2010 look like a boy scout´s camp.

t30_23468987.jpgt17_23466815.jpgt39_23468729.jpg

If a company is going to go through the painful process of moving from Thailand due to risks, they are as such as hell not going to go to Cambodia. Cambodia has little to no road infrastructure, corruption is rife there, and if recent elections are anything to go by, it is a short distance from some of their own political strife. When Hun Sen is finally removed I am sure they will go through a painful period of politics as the various parties, families, armies fight for a piece of the pie.

I doubt very much Cambodia has or is planing on the infrastructure it would need for major manufactures.

[waza]

The Thai economy is in ruins, thanks to the fiscal mismanagement of the PTP led government. Foreign investor are fleeing like rats from a sinking ship, while the cabinet meander away with bulging pocket, leaving the Thai taxpayer to foot the bill. But its all mai pen rai till the time it takes a days wages to buy a serve of som tam, only by then there will be a wall of security keeping them in check.

Clearly you have Zero idea of what you are talking about and this is a bit of typical uninformed Thai bashing. I believe that you could not read an equity chart to save your life. It may be wrong to ridicule someone for being ignorant but when they attack other people with their stupidity they deserve anything that comes at them. Yes I am referring to the author of your post. FYI emerging economy investments in general have been getting beat up badly recently and yesterday speculation about US Federal Reserve actions caused a panic sell off in them. FYI Thailand's investable market funds have been and still are in an uptrend since 2009. FYI During the past twelve monthsThailand Exchange Traded Funds have outperformed gold by 13-15% even after taking a tremendous thrashing since last May when emerging economy funds crashed. Waiting for your next technical commentary on the Thai economy with urgent attention.

Lucky we have an economic guru to explain that the Thai government policies have nothing to do with Thailand's economic performance its all down to the actions of the US reserve.

PS: In the last 12 months everything has out performed gold, except the Thai rice scam.

Edited August 22, 2013 by waza