Thai Finance Ministry forecasts higher economic growth in Q3

[webfact]

Finance Ministry forecasts higher economic growth in Q3
By English News



BANGKOK, Aug 30 – The Thai economy in July showed signs of slight improvement compared to the previous month, despite an overall slowdown and falling exports, according to a senior Finance Ministry official.

Ekniti Nitithanprapas, deputy director general of the Fiscal Policy Office, said July exports rose by 1.5 per cent year-on-year but increased by 0.8 per cent month-on-month compared to June due to expansion in the electronics and fuel sectors in tandem with the strengthened US and European economies.

Regarding consumption in the private sector, he said revenue from value added tax (VAT) in July declined by 1.9 per cent year-on-year but VAT collections based on domestic consumption increased by 5.5 per cent year-on-year.

Commodity imports in July were higher by 9.0 per cent year-on-year while private investment in construction, based on property business, increased by 29.9 per cent year-on-year in July.

Private investment in machinery, based on imports of capital goods in July, dropped by 3.6 per cent year-on-year but expanded by 8.7 per cent compared to the preceding month.

Kulaya Tantitemit, executive director of the Macroeconomic Policy Bureau, said the economic indicators on Thailand’s supply in the industrial and agricultural sectors has slowed down but the tourism sector has expanded.

The manufacturing production index (MPI) in July dropped 4.5 per cent year-on-year and 0.4 per cent month-on-month compared to June, while raw material imports increased by 12.5 per cent year-on-year, reflecting a positive sign in the industrial sector, she said.

Ms Kulaya said the agricultural production index (API) in July shrank by 2.7 per cent year-on-year and 7.4 per cent month-on-month in accord with decreasing rice production partly due to drought.

On the brighter side, Thailand’s tourism expanded 22.5 per cent year-on-year, mainly from visits by Chinese, Malaysian and Singaporean tourists.

Mr Ekniti said there were signs that the Thai economy would become more lively in the third quarter. Thailand’s economic stability, both internal and external, remains solid given inflation and unemployment rates at 2.0 per cent/year and 0.5 per cent/year respectively.

The country’s foreign reserves are as high as US$172 billion – sufficient to cope with the global economic volatility -- while the fiscal policy will be significant in stabilising the economy in the second half of the year, he said. (MCOT online news)


-- TNA 2013-08-30

[Thait Spot]

I don't see any of the statistics given supporting the headline

[laurentbkk]

I just love the Thai optimism .... of course after the rain comes the sun , its natural .....

[webfact]

UNCTAD points out Thai Econ remains strong

BANGKOK, 30 Aug 2013 (NNT) - Dr. Supachai Panitchpak, Secretary General of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), pointed out that the economy of Thailand remains strong while suggesting economic restructuring to improve overall performance.

Dr. Supachai considered the current massive outflow of foreign capital due to the U.S. Quantitative Easing (QE) withdrawal, as not a sign of fragility in the local economy, saying only small segment is being affected by the phenomena.

He said that the QE withdrawal is a good thing as it gives a clear image of the actual situation of the basic economy to Asian nations so they can readjust their production volume and management strategies accordingly in order to attract foreign investment. He cited however a short term effect such as shrinking economic growth.

Dr. Suphachai said that nonetheless Thailand needs to increase its competitive level, suggesting the Government put greater investment on production efficiency to spearhead similar investment in the private sector, in order to achieve a sustainable economic growth. Dr. Supachai clarifies that the practice would not affect the public debt despite its potential to reach more than 60% of the GPD as a multitude of investments would benefit long term employments and revenue.


-- NNT 2013-08-30

[mommysboy]

I got the gist but must have missed the facts to support it.

[NongKhaiKid]

I just love the Thai optimism .... of course after the rain comes the sun , its natural .....

I'm sure Q3 will be an improvement even if it takes creative accounting and " white lies " to prove it.

No doubt too, right on cue, TAT will assure that visitor numbers are up and projections are up as tourists are flocking here.

These days the government treats negativity as something akin to treason.

[clockman]

I think they are starting to panic!

[chainarong]

And I predict lower commodity prices in the second quarter of 2014, especially rice.

[Peabody]

UNCTAD points out Thai Econ remains strong

BANGKOK, 30 Aug 2013 (NNT) - Dr. Supachai Panitchpak, Secretary General of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), pointed out that the economy of Thailand remains strong while suggesting economic restructuring to improve overall performance.

Dr. Supachai considered the current massive outflow of foreign capital due to the U.S. Quantitative Easing (QE) withdrawal, as not a sign of fragility in the local economy, saying only small segment is being affected by the phenomena.

He said that the QE withdrawal is a good thing as it gives a clear image of the actual situation of the basic economy to Asian nations so they can readjust their production volume and management strategies accordingly in order to attract foreign investment. He cited however a short term effect such as shrinking economic growth.

Dr. Suphachai said that nonetheless Thailand needs to increase its competitive level, suggesting the Government put greater investment on production efficiency to spearhead similar investment in the private sector, in order to achieve a sustainable economic growth. Dr. Supachai clarifies that the practice would not affect the public debt despite its potential to reach more than 60% of the GPD as a multitude of investments would benefit long term employments and revenue.

-- NNT 2013-08-30

Did Supachai say this as a rep of UNCTAD or did he say it as a loyal Thai wearing blinders?

[Nickymaster]

Hope they're right. Can't get much worse does it?

[annabel]

[dcutman]

Finance Ministry forecasts higher economic growth in Q3

Lets hope so, by how much?

Oh even though we know its gonna be better, we just dont know how much better.

Quarter 1 was -1.7%, quarter 2 was -.3% (recession). will be interesting (funny) to hear the excuses/denial if growth contracts 3 quarters in a row.

[expat888]

Hope they're right. Can't get much worse does it?

Well...

Cambodia and Vietnam could open up their countries to foreigners owning property and easy visas and residency after several years of stay. That would suck all the foreigners out of Thailand. Who would Thais fleece then?

[Baerboxer]

Finance Ministry forecasts higher economic growth in Q3

Lets hope so, by how much?

Oh even though we know its gonna be better, we just dont know how much better.

Quarter 1 was -1.7%, quarter 2 was -.3% (recession). will be interesting (funny) to hear the excuses/denial if growth contracts 3 quarters in a row.

Yep - and there was some poster a couple of weeks ago claiming it wasn't a recession and lecturing us all on his sharp understanding of economics.

The "experts" here have no clue because they're all too busy pushing for places at the trough. The rice scheme figures have all gone quiet, the poor lady who spoke out gone quiet, any other bad news gone quiet.

Just wait till end of next Q. It will be a return to growth for sure. Ask how, what figures, statistics etc - all will go quiet.

Do I see a pattern? Plays on the short term memory span of most Thais - not an insult, just a different perspective. Maybe we farang remember and therefore worry too much.

[dcutman]

Finance Ministry forecasts higher economic growth in Q3

Lets hope so, by how much?

Oh even though we know its gonna be better, we just dont know how much better.

Quarter 1 was -1.7%, quarter 2 was -.3% (recession). will be interesting (funny) to hear the excuses/denial if growth contracts 3 quarters in a row.

Yep - and there was some poster a couple of weeks ago claiming it wasn't a recession and lecturing us all on his sharp understanding of economics.

The "experts" here have no clue because they're all too busy pushing for places at the trough. The rice scheme figures have all gone quiet, the poor lady who spoke out gone quiet, any other bad news gone quiet.

Just wait till end of next Q. It will be a return to growth for sure. Ask how, what figures, statistics etc - all will go quiet.

Do I see a pattern? Plays on the short term memory span of most Thais - not an insult, just a different perspective. Maybe we farang remember and therefore worry too much.

Maybe we farang remember and therefore worry too much.

For sure there is no doubt we worry to much. Or really just dont believe anymore.

As for the other posters, I am only gonna guess, real quiet for next growth report. I dont see many changes from the last two, other than the usual Kitiratt report of "all good here in Thailand".

[Thai at Heart]

Finance Ministry forecasts higher economic growth in Q3

Lets hope so, by how much?

Oh even though we know its gonna be better, we just dont know how much better.

Quarter 1 was -1.7%, quarter 2 was -.3% (recession). will be interesting (funny) to hear the excuses/denial if growth contracts 3 quarters in a row.

They will trumpet that they are ahead of the growth numbers from 2 years ago year on year on year.....

[dcutman]

Finance Ministry forecasts higher economic growth in Q3

Lets hope so, by how much?

Oh even though we know its gonna be better, we just dont know how much better.

Quarter 1 was -1.7%, quarter 2 was -.3% (recession). will be interesting (funny) to hear the excuses/denial if growth contracts 3 quarters in a row.

They will trumpet that they are ahead of the growth numbers from 2 years ago year on year on year.....

When if all fails, quote 2011 (big flood facts) that will make everything shine.

Of course there will be lots of "YA BUTS" as well as "If's, Coulds, and Shoulds" and never forget "Sound Economics"

Edited August 30, 2013 by dcutman

[bigbamboo]

Thailand has 172 billion in foreign currency reserves which is healthy and yet it's government now wants to borrow 2.2 trillion baht (which unless I'm wrong is about four times that amount.)

Given the less than ideal world economic climate, the uncertain local political situation, the as yet unknown 2015 factor and the history of endemic corruption here that seems an onerous debt burden to place on future generations.

[ratcatcher]

Finance Ministry forecasts higher economic growth in Q3

Lets hope so, by how much?

Oh even though we know its gonna be better, we just dont know how much better.

Quarter 1 was -1.7%, quarter 2 was -.3% (recession). will be interesting (funny) to hear the excuses/denial if growth contracts 3 quarters in a row.

Yep - and there was some poster a couple of weeks ago claiming it wasn't a recession and lecturing us all on his sharp understanding of economics.

The "experts" here have no clue because they're all too busy pushing for places at the trough. The rice scheme figures have all gone quiet, the poor lady who spoke out gone quiet, any other bad news gone quiet.

Just wait till end of next Q. It will be a return to growth for sure. Ask how, what figures, statistics etc - all will go quiet.

Do I see a pattern? Plays on the short term memory span of most Thais - not an insult, just a different perspective. Maybe we farang remember and therefore worry too much.

Maybe we farang remember and therefore worry too much.

For sure there is no doubt we worry to much. Or really just dont believe anymore.

As for the other posters, I am only gonna guess, real quiet for next growth report. I dont see many changes from the last two, other than the usual Kitiratt report of "all good here in Thailand".

Someone once likened it to the rearrangement of deckchairs on the Titanic.

But, then again, that was a ship, this is a proud nation.

[Thai at Heart]

Finance Ministry forecasts higher economic growth in Q3

Lets hope so, by how much?

Oh even though we know its gonna be better, we just dont know how much better.

Quarter 1 was -1.7%, quarter 2 was -.3% (recession). will be interesting (funny) to hear the excuses/denial if growth contracts 3 quarters in a row.

Yep - and there was some poster a couple of weeks ago claiming it wasn't a recession and lecturing us all on his sharp understanding of economics.

The "experts" here have no clue because they're all too busy pushing for places at the trough. The rice scheme figures have all gone quiet, the poor lady who spoke out gone quiet, any other bad news gone quiet.

Just wait till end of next Q. It will be a return to growth for sure. Ask how, what figures, statistics etc - all will go quiet.

Do I see a pattern? Plays on the short term memory span of most Thais - not an insult, just a different perspective. Maybe we farang remember and therefore worry too much.

Maybe we farang remember and therefore worry too much.

For sure there is no doubt we worry to much. Or really just dont believe anymore.

As for the other posters, I am only gonna guess, real quiet for next growth report. I dont see many changes from the last two, other than the usual Kitiratt report of "all good here in Thailand".

Someone once likened it to the rearrangement of deckchairs on the Titanic.

But, then again, that was a ship, this is a proud nation.

I would prefer practical than proud.

Proud of exactly what? Being more a advanced in development than Laos? Whooopppeeee!

[bigbamboo]

Thailand has 172 billion in foreign currency reserves which is healthy and yet it's government now wants to borrow 2.2 trillion baht (which unless I'm wrong is about four times that amount.)

Given the less than ideal world economic climate, the uncertain local political situation, the as yet unknown 2015 factor and the history of endemic corruption here that seems an onerous debt burden to place on future generations.

And I am wrong... missing a zero! It's around 40 per cent of the total reserves.

But with the interest payments it probably will eventually be closer to the first figure.

[GeorgeO]

I don't see any of the statistics given supporting the headline

Indeed, manufacturing production down 4.5 per cent, and property construction up by almost 30 per cent. OMG, where will this numpty be when the bubble bursts, probably working in a completely different government department...?!