Is Thailand in trouble or not?

[i claudius]

Now ime no hexpert ,i just read what is written in the papers or reported in the news ,but there seem to be many conflicting reports ,the Govt say all is well ,but many other sources say something a little different ,i know Thailand has large reserves of Dollors ,but they can be eaten up quickly if there is a run on the baht ,so whats your take on things?

[David48]

I believe that spell-checkers are under-rated ... especially in the OP.

I used to think I knew something ... but then Naam pointed to the error of my ways and he was right in saying that I was wrong ...

I now defer to him on such matters of Thailand's foreign reserves.

I ...

[GuestHouse]

The government have on a number of occasions over the past 18 months been late paying government worker salaries and has its head buried in a rice mountain trying to avoid awkward questions regarding balancing the books.

Meanwhile personal debt in Thailand has risen dramatically in the past five years.

So, the indications are that yes, Thailand is heading for trouble, if not already in it.

[i claudius]

I do know that my wife has decided to not bother to grow rice next year ,once the govt have paid the premium this one ,she reckons its not worth the hassle.

[giggles]

as QE funds are being taken out something has to give ,it inflated a bubble of easy credit all over the land for cars and house

[A1Str8]

Theoretically it is in trouble but do not worry!

Every time when a country is in trouble, the owners of the country come up with quick solutions to make the problem dissappear: higher taxes, higher prices etc..by doing so they put the burden on the citizens and sooner or later by squeezing the ......out of them, order will be restored.

This phase has started already, just think about the increasing gasoline prices and the list is endless. Make no mistake, I am not being sarcastic. But that is what is happening.

Sent from one of my devices using the internet

[i claudius]

I must admit it amazes me how young Thais manage to afford 20000 baht phones ,so many kids working in Tesco ect have them ,their hp debt must be massive

[i claudius]

Theoretically it is in trouble but do not worry!

Every time when a country is in trouble, the owners of the country come up with quick solutions to make the problem dissappear: higher taxes, higher prices etc..by doing so they put the burden on the citizens and sooner or later by squeezing the ......out of them, order will be restored.

This phase has started already, just think about the increasing gasoline prices and the list is endless. Make no mistake, I am not being sarcastic. But that is what is happening.

Sent from one of my devices using the internet

well i know booze has just gone up ,but as the govt said ,this is not to raise extra tax but to stop people drinking to much ,and i for one believe them 100% dont you?

[HeavyDrinker]

Who cares? If the dooodooo hits the fan get on to head office and they'll send you to Hanoi!! Which is nice....

[historyprof]

The only really negative economic information; bubbles and things like that are presented on Thai Visa by people who have most of their assets in currencies other than the Thai Baht.

[HeavyDrinker]

The only really negative economic information; bubbles and things like that are presented on Thai Visa by people who have most of their assets in currencies other than the Thai Baht.

Or by people who couldn't leave the country at a moment's notice as they're too tied up teaching their 'clients' how to spell CAT..

[CharlieH]

Makes no difference really, unless you are positioned in that you can just leave, then no matter what unfolds on the stage you will remain in the audience. You have no choice but roll with it, adjust, adapt and hopefully overcome whatever it may be.

[historyprof]

Makes no difference really, unless you are positioned in that you can just leave, then no matter what unfolds on the stage you will remain in the audience. You have no choice but roll with it, adjust, adapt and hopefully overcome whatever it may be.

10 years ago we did not have the doom and gloom posters because the pound and dollar were strong. Now they are not and we have a group of people trying to depress the baht. I have to admit 10 years ago I didn't post on TV. I read it but not as much and don't remember the terrible Thai gloom posters that we have now. Seems to me people were saying when the baht was at 40 to hang on and it would go to 60. But, like I said I didn't post and only read maybe once a week.

[GuestHouse]

Ten years ago was too late.

The real money was made in the crash of the mid 90's.

Real estate at give away prices.

Expats selling up 3 years ago was a mimi bonus but nothing like 97~99.

[Naam]

I believe that spell-checkers are under-rated ... especially in the OP.

I used to think I knew something ... but then Naam pointed to the error of my ways and he was right in saying that I was wrong ...

I now defer to him on such matters of Thailand's foreign reserves.

I ...

no thank you David. explaing half a dozen times (most probably more often) is more than enough. and that applies to other similar topics too

[bermondburi]

May the baht continue to fall .

[Forethat]

I believe that spell-checkers are under-rated ... especially in the OP.

I used to think I knew something ... but then Naam pointed to the error of my ways and he was right in saying that I was wrong ...

I now defer to him on such matters of Thailand's foreign reserves.

I ...

Any advice required regarding gardeners - he's your man!

[Forethat]

I believe that spell-checkers are under-rated ... especially in the OP.

I used to think I knew something ... but then Naam pointed to the error of my ways and he was right in saying that I was wrong ...

I now defer to him on such matters of Thailand's foreign reserves.

I ...

no thank you David. explaing half a dozen times (most probably more often) is more than enough. and that applies to other similar topics too

Are you referring to the spell checker...?

[farang000999]

People hoping for another 1997 are dreaming. There may be some kind of crisis sure but the Thai baht is no longer pegged to the USA dollar so expecting it to crash 50% in such a crisis is silly.

If there were a credit crunch, couldn't that even be bullish for the Thai baht? All those rich Thais with money overseas would be selling their foreign money and buying baht. Kind of like what happened in Japan after the disaster.

Edited September 5, 2013 by farang000999

[Chittychangchang]

It's a case of "When" not "if" the credit crunch hits Thailand.

Then the question for many members will be - Shall i return to Thailand and live it up on my pension

again.

CCC

[OldChinaHam]

Theoretically it is in trouble but do not worry!

Every time when a country is in trouble, the owners of the country come up with quick solutions to make the problem dissappear: higher taxes, higher prices etc..by doing so they put the burden on the citizens and sooner or later by squeezing the ......out of them, order will be restored.

This phase has started already, just think about the increasing gasoline prices and the list is endless. Make no mistake, I am not being sarcastic. But that is what is happening.

Sent from one of my devices using the internet

No you are not being sarcastic, just ironical.

And you are very correct, too.

This same dynamic plays itself out time and time again.

Greece, for example.

The international banks come in a steal the assets of the country which goes into debt too far, assets which rightfully belonging to the citizens of said country.

You might also think of IMF, here.

But was it not Iceland which balked?

And then told most of the lending companies to go F themselves?

Of course, all countries in debt should band together and tell the International Banks to go F themselves.

That would be one step for men, and one giant step to get the pushers off the back of the people.

Debt is the drug these banks are pushing.

[MAJIC]

It may be premature to say that Thailand is in trouble,but if the past is anything to go by? when a Coup makes one jot of difference to the Thai economy,neither did the 2010 takeover by the Reds in Bangkok,the rice pledge fiasco,and many other happenings which normally knocks the west for six,but Thailand has emerged unscathed for the last ten years or more. I don't claim any more financial insight than most of us. But there is something definately happening to the Baht that is certainly weakening it daily,some of it caused with little more than a slight strengthening of some western finances,which would have some effect on the Baht, but that doesn't explain all of the recent decline of the Baht.

[Ystradyfodwg]

Girlfriends brothers and sisters are all fully maxed out on their credit cards,mortgaged to the hilt,monthly payments on 1 Million Baht cars.Very similar circumstances to what happened 6-7 in the UK before the crash of 2007.Its only a matter of time before the same happens in Thailand.

[mamba yuck]

where do you see cause for concern?

[mamba yuck]

versus say the two near big non-absolute linked currencies :

point to further thai baht weakening in an orderly manner,

Edited September 5, 2013 by mamba yuck

[Tim207]

Theoretically it is in trouble but do not worry!

Every time when a country is in trouble, the owners of the country come up with quick solutions to make the problem dissappear: higher taxes, higher prices etc..by doing so they put the burden on the citizens and sooner or later by squeezing the ......out of them, order will be restored.

This phase has started already, just think about the increasing gasoline prices and the list is endless. Make no mistake, I am not being sarcastic. But that is what is happening.

Sent from one of my devices using the internet

No you are not being sarcastic, just ironical.

And you are very correct, too.

This same dynamic plays itself out time and time again.

Greece, for example.

The international banks come in a steal the assets of the country which goes into debt too far, assets which rightfully belonging to the citizens of said country.

You might also think of IMF, here.

Huh? The citizens ARE the country, particularly in a country with democratically elected representatives. If they put themselves in a position where they can not make their loan payments they SHOULD forfeit the collateral they pledged to guarantee the loans. They borrowed money and it is their responsibility to pay it back as agreed. No one is stealing their assets, they were forced to use those assets to pay back money that they spent.

[IsaanUSA]

I'm an optimist, and by no scientific means at all, I think Thailand is doing fine.

I'm VERY interested to see how the AEC effects the region. I think Thailand has many things to offer the other countries, but there are products in each country that will also do well in Thailand.

Also I'm excited for the Cambodian and Vietnamese beers to be sold in Thailand

[Ricardo]

The only really negative economic information; bubbles and things like that are presented on Thai Visa by people who have most of their assets in currencies other than the Thai Baht.

On the other hand, I've always thought it good advice, to 'never bring into Thailand money which you're not prepared to lose'.

I've known many people who found the truth of that out too late !

The bulk of our own assets will continue to remain offshore, for tax & political-risk reasons, we'll accept the consequences if the Baht goes to even-greater heights, despite a borrow-&-spend socialist-government and the unwanted event-to-come.

[Ricardo]

Also I'm excited for the Cambodian and Vietnamese beers to be sold in Thailand

Sir, your excellent post cuts straight to the nitty-gritty, Yay for Beer-Lao !

[StreetCowboy]

Theoretically it is in trouble but do not worry!

Every time when a country is in trouble, the owners of the country come up with quick solutions to make the problem dissappear: higher taxes, higher prices etc..by doing so they put the burden on the citizens and sooner or later by squeezing the ......out of them, order will be restored.

This phase has started already, just think about the increasing gasoline prices and the list is endless. Make no mistake, I am not being sarcastic. But that is what is happening.

Sent from one of my devices using the internet

No you are not being sarcastic, just ironical.

And you are very correct, too.

This same dynamic plays itself out time and time again.

Greece, for example.

The international banks come in a steal the assets of the country which goes into debt too far, assets which rightfully belonging to the citizens of said country.

You might also think of IMF, here.

Huh? The citizens ARE the country, particularly in a country with democratically elected representatives. If they put themselves in a position where they can not make their loan payments they SHOULD forfeit the collateral they pledged to guarantee the loans. They borrowed money and it is their responsibility to pay it back as agreed. No one is stealing their assets, they were forced to use those assets to pay back money that they spent.

A handy reminder to stay away from loan sharks, and not to lend money to people who are bigger than you. Nor to Johnny Foreigners