Surprised no reaction from BYD owners on this forum

[webfact]

ECONOMY
BOT may revise GDP growth forecast downward again: director
Chairat Srisook
The Nation


Mathee

BANGKOK: -- The Bank of Thailand may cut its forecast for national economic growth for 2013 in October, despite economic figures in August showing the economy had begun to stabilise.

Mathee Supapongse, BOT senior director, said the central bank planned to review this year's growth estimate this month from the earlier projection of 4.2 per cent.

"There is a chance for a downward revision," he said.

The to-be-revised economic figures would also depend partly on the figures for September and October, he said. The BOT declined to say whether or not the Thai economy had hit the bottom.

Given that some financial indicators remained stable from the previous month, the central bank conceded the Thai economy remains at risk from external and internal factors.

"We don't want to say it [the Thai economy] has been through the bottom yet. But … several indicators remain steady from the previous month. In the next few periods, risks from the QE [stimulus programme in the US], Europe and domestic factors remain," Mathee said.

There remains uncertainty about tapering of the US quantitative easing and the European economic situation.

According to the BOT report on the Economic and Monetary Conditions for August 2013, the Thai economy has begun to stabilise.

Private consumption has stabilised, as reflected by the Private Consumption Index (PCI) which expanded slightly by 0.6 per cent year-on-year, due mainly to a pickup in consumption-based VAT collection, although imports of consumer goods and automobile sales contracted. Sales of cars declined owing to the high base effect of last year, but sales volume became more stable.

Private investment remained steady from last month as well. Nonetheless, when compared to the high base in the same period last year, private investment had contracted as reflected by a 4 per cent year-on-year decline in the Private Investment Index (PII), due mainly to a slowdown in imports of machinery and equipment in electronics and automobile industries, coupled with a decrease in commercial car sales.

Merchandise exports picked up in tandem with a gradual recovery in global demand. The merchandise export value stood at US$19.991 billion (Bt623 billion), increasing by 2.5 per cent year on year from a rise in exports of manufacturing products. But exports of fishery and processed agricultural products continued to contract as the outbreak of shrimp disease persisted.

The tourism sector expanded robustly, with 2.5 million foreign tourist arrivals which increased by 28.1 per cent compared to last year, thanks to more tourists from China, Malaysia and Russia.

Fiscal spending decelerated given the expedited transfer of subsidy to local administration and non-budgetary funds in the preceding months, and the delay in capital expenditure disbursement for irrigation and transportation projects. Meanwhile, government revenue moderated as personal income tax and VAT collections increased, while excise tax on car purchases declined.

With revenue outpacing expenditure, the government's cash balance posted a surplus of Bt17 billion. On the stability front, headline inflation softened to 1.59 per cent year on year due mainly to a slowdown in energy prices. Core inflation recorded at 0.75 per cent year on year on the back of limited pass through of costs to prices of goods and services.

Thailand's GDP this year is expected to expand only 3.5 per cent due to declining exports, a slowing global economy and the lack of a new stimulus package by the government, according to a Thai National Shippers' Council forecast.

The council also revised down the forecast of export growth this year to only 2.5 per cent from the previous forecast of 3 per cent, due to the baht's volatility, said council chairman Nopporn Thepsitthar yesterday.

The export value in August stood at $20.5 billion and the sector is expected to register similar value each month for the rest of this year.

Last week the Fiscal Policy Office said Thailand's economy was expected to expand 5.1 per cent next year, thanks to the expected gradual economic recovery of trading partners, which would benefit the country's export and service sectors. The low interest rate would also support private consumption and investment.

However, this year, the office has revised downward the economic growth forecast to 3.7 per cent from the June forecast of 4.5 per cent.

At the October 16 meeting, the Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee will review the growth forecast this year.

The office also forecast the growth of the export sector at 1.8 per cent this year, lower than the 4 per cent projected by the Commerce Ministry. While the sector showed signs of recovery in August and in the last quarter this year, these are unlikely to help it achieve the growth target.


-- The Nation 2013-10-01

[ramrod711]

However, this year, the office has revised downward the economic growth forecast to 3.7 per cent from the June forecast of 4.5 per cent.

At the October 16 meeting, the Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee will review the growth forecast this year.

Mr. Supapongse, must learn to tell "white lies" for the good of the Thai economy. Thai people like to be lied to by their leaders.

[noitom]

Hats off to the girls of Thailand out there working every day and night. The Thai girls, the real backbone of the Thai economy.

[Pib]

I'm sure by 31 Dec 13 the BOT will have an accurate projection of 2013 GDP growth...and then they will proudly talk how accurate their estimate was for the year.

Edited October 1, 2013 by Pib

[Lobo4819]

The downward revisions have become an almost weekly event.

[phitsanulokjohn]

GDP forecast going down,along with gang geng nai.Umbrella's going up.

[Ulic]

I don't think I have ever seen a rosier outlook painted for an economy that has had its forecast downgraded about 4 times already this year.

[Baerboxer]

I don't think I have ever seen a rosier outlook painted for an economy that has had its forecast downgraded about 4 times already this year.

Give PTP 6 months, 90 days, 30 days or now even within 7 days. All will be sorted, economy back on target, no recession here.

[timewilltell]

Thailand is going down the proverbial plug hole under PTP. Sadly the Democrats would likely be little better because they are also riddled with corruption.