Beware not just amnesty, but the B2-trn borrowing bill, and the rest: Thai opinion

[webfact]

TELL IT AS IT IS
Beware not just amnesty, but the B2-trn borrowing bill, and the rest
Pornpimol Kanchanalak

BANGKOK: -- The "Thai-Ku-Kah" crowd at the Prime Minister's workplace must have gotten giddy with invincibility to have their gal push through an amnesty bill that would exonerate not just the yellow-shirt leaders and the red shirts who burned part of the town, not just the former prime minister (who would have got back all proceeds from the sale of Shincorp plus interest), but that would also wash clean the current government and its leader's basket of dirty linen.

The proposed bill stipulates that all cases involving political movements and politicians since the last coup in 2006 up to August 8 this year be wiped away. Several cases pending at the Anti-Corruption Commission - the rice price pledging spending spree among them - incriminate the prime minister herself and several of her Cabinet members.

The government and its pollsters got it all wrong. The bill has brought ordinary folk who had never before participated in political rallies out of the comfort zone of their homes and onto the streets. The so-called silent majority is no longer willing to keep quiet.

But the amnesty bill is just the first strike in the "one-two" punch that would bring the country to its knees. The other is the Bt2-trillion off-budget borrowing bill that is still pending in the House.

But even if both bills are defeated, other benefits "on the fringe" will still mean real money flows to the powers-that-be and their cronies.

The ongoing Cabinet "roadshow" to sell the B2-trillion borrowing bill has already handed out billions of baht to provinces and villages through which the high-speed train and new highways are supposed to run.

The handouts are in reality vote-gathering, and the profits from land-price speculation have already been spread among government supporters. This is all about "you scratch my back and I'll scratch yours" - Tributes and Profits, pure and simple.

Wielding its one-two punch, the government thinks it will ultimately be the winner, and that its opponents will be defeated because they have neither the dough nor the staying power to stand in its way.

If such is the case, the real losers will be the country and its people.

On November 4, Forbes Magazine ran an article titled "Thailand's Bubble Economy is Heading for a 1977-Style Crash". A well-researched piece, it tells of the evils of an unabated household and public debt that is not being used to increase economic output but to feed consumers' addiction to cash and what cash can buy.

Thailand is among the emerging economies that have benefited from low rates of interest in developed countries plus their quantitative easing stimulus programmes, the author notes.

The inflow of foreign capital - so-called hot money - has more than doubled Thailand's total external debt exposure. It is Thailand's credit bubble, not its exports, that has helped boost the country's economic growth and consumer spending.

Domestic credit to Thailand's private sector as a percentage of the country's GDP has risen alarmingly and will eventually come back to haunt us. The article cites the first-car tax rebate as a significant contributor to the recent increase in Thai household debt, with hundreds of thousands of debtors set to default once the tax break expires.

Thailand's household debt-to-GDP now stands at 77 per cent - up from 55 per cent in 2008 and 45 per cent a decade ago - making it one of the highest ratios in Asia.

However, even worse than consumers debt binge is the government's. The country is now running a large budget deficit to support its spending.

Fuelling this deficit is the government's many questionable stimulus programmes. Among them are the US$2.5-billion first-car tax rebate, the $4.4-billion failed rice subsidy scheme, the subsidy for first-time homebuyers, the three-year debt moratorium programme, the cut in personal income tax, the fuel subsidy, the free computer tablets (most of which are now broken), the salary increase for government officials and the rubber subsidy.

The author describes its spending binge as part of the Thai government's assumption that an Asian Century-style regional growth boom will happen many years down the road. But he cautions that such an assumption may be mere fantasy. Thailand's export-sector growth in recent years has been based on the growth of China's economy.

More than half of Thai exports head to Asean countries and China, all of which are experiencing growth-boosting economic bubbles of their own. Thai exports account for about three-quarters of our GDP, making us extremely susceptible to the economic status of our trading partners.

Our so-called Big Brother, China, is now at a crossroads economically. Most of its domestic stimulus programmes have been undertaken, new towns and cities have been built, yet many of them are standing empty.

The Forbes article fails to mention the government's many off-budget stimulus spending schemes that use state-owned banks such as the Bank for Agriculture and Cooperative and the Government Saving Bank, both of which are on the brink of going under.

A few days ago, our prime minister gave an interview to CNN. Noting that she was Thailand's first female prime minister, she concluded the interview with a plea to the Thai public to give her a chance - as a woman leader, presumably.

We ordinary Thais would ask her for the same. Please give us a chance, not to be anything, but to survive intact instead of being mangled in economic, social and political wreckage.


-- The Nation 2013-11-08

[soundman]

Great article telling it as is.

[MaiChai]

Seems much more bravery in criticizing the government now. Finally some common sense stating how it really is rather than bowing to the powerful government and trying to appease them.

[huanga]

[ramrod711]

The handouts are in reality vote-gathering, and the profits from land-price speculation have already been spread among government supporters. This is all about "you scratch my back and I'll scratch yours" - Tributes and Profits, pure and simple.

This must be what Thaksin was talking about when he said "six months after i get back, we will all be rich". I hope ordinary citizens didn't think he was referring to them.

[rametindallas]

A very sobering article. It show that the rest of the World knows more about what is truly going on in Thailand than the average citizen. I sincerely hope this information get around.

[waza]

The administration is fast reaching its used by date, hopefully it will be disbanded before the next election and a truly democratic government can come to power, not another rebranded Thaksin proxy government

[whybother]

The administration is fast reaching its used by date, hopefully it will be disbanded before the next election and a truly democratic government can come to power, not another rebranded Thaksin proxy government

A new election will see the same people in government. It will be a PTP / coalition government, except with PTP not having the majority of seats.

[jayboy]

Great article telling it as is.

Actually it's a pathetic article with numerous errors.Its centrepiece is a Forbes article predicting a 1977 style crash.Since there was no such crash in 1977 one's confidence in its integrity is not exactly enhanced.I follow for business reasons several reputable political and economic forecasters.The political outlook is indeed very uncertain but Thailand's economic position, while facing some challenges, is very soild.If the US and Europe had Thailand's economic strength and resilience, its leaders would be delighted.

[dru2]

Great article telling it as is.

Actually it's a pathetic article with numerous errors.Its centrepiece is a Forbes article predicting a 1977 style crash.Since there was no such crash in 1977 one's confidence in its integrity is not exactly enhanced.I follow for business reasons several reputable political and economic forecasters.The political outlook is indeed very uncertain but Thailand's economic position, while facing some challenges, is very soild.If the US and Europe had Thailand's economic strength and resilience, its leaders would be delighted.

Forbes, of course, is referring to the 1997 crash. The OP has made a typo in writing 1977. Just how stupid are you?

[noitom]

Great article telling it as is. alt=thumbsup.gif width=25 height=19>

Actually it's a pathetic article with numerous errors.Its centrepiece is a Forbes article predicting a 1977 style crash.Since there was no such crash in 1977 one's confidence in its integrity is not exactly enhanced.I follow for business reasons several reputable political and economic forecasters.The political outlook is indeed very uncertain but Thailand's economic position, while facing some challenges, is very soild.If the US and Europe had Thailand's economic strength and resilience, its leaders would be delighted.

And if the US and Europe permitted the scale of black market activities mainstreaming in Thailand , Thai sex trade, and the lack of regulations there would be no stopping the US and European economies.

[lemoncake]

Great article telling it as is.

Actually it's a pathetic article with numerous errors.Its centrepiece is a Forbes article predicting a 1977 style crash.Since there was no such crash in 1977 one's confidence in its integrity is not exactly enhanced.I follow for business reasons several reputable political and economic forecasters.The political outlook is indeed very uncertain but Thailand's economic position, while facing some challenges, is very soild.If the US and Europe had Thailand's economic strength and resilience, its leaders would be delighted.

If I had to guess, I would say 1977 was a misprint which should have been 1997

[Thait Spot]

Great article telling it as is.

Actually it's a pathetic article with numerous errors.Its centrepiece is a Forbes article predicting a 1977 style crash.Since there was no such crash in 1977 one's confidence in its integrity is not exactly enhanced.I follow for business reasons several reputable political and economic forecasters.The political outlook is indeed very uncertain but Thailand's economic position, while facing some challenges, is very soild.If the US and Europe had Thailand's economic strength and resilience, its leaders would be delighted.

So, it's a pathetic article because of a typo?

Forbes is not alone among the financial press in showing an amber light for Thailand's economy

Moody's themselves see enough issues to do so

[jaidam]

Great article telling it as is.

Actually it's a pathetic article with numerous errors.Its centrepiece is a Forbes article predicting a 1977 style crash.Since there was no such crash in 1977 one's confidence in its integrity is not exactly enhanced.I follow for business reasons several reputable political and economic forecasters.The political outlook is indeed very uncertain but Thailand's economic position, while facing some challenges, is very soild.If the US and Europe had Thailand's economic strength and resilience, its leaders would be delighted.

I think thats a spelling mistake and is meant to read 1997 crash referring to the Tom Yam goong crisis.

If only the govt had just listened a bit to the gist of the sufficiency economy idea that was being recommended to them by benevolent powers, but no, they knew best with Thaksinomics.

[soundman]

I took it for a typo. Most likely should read 1997.

[jayboy]

Great article telling it as is.

Actually it's a pathetic article with numerous errors.Its centrepiece is a Forbes article predicting a 1977 style crash.Since there was no such crash in 1977 one's confidence in its integrity is not exactly enhanced.I follow for business reasons several reputable political and economic forecasters.The political outlook is indeed very uncertain but Thailand's economic position, while facing some challenges, is very soild.If the US and Europe had Thailand's economic strength and resilience, its leaders would be delighted.

So, it's a pathetic article because of a typo?

Forbes is not alone among the financial press in showing an amber light for Thailand's economy

Moody's themselves see enough issues to do so

Of course it's a typo.I took that merely as an example of slovenly journalism.There are many other errors and misjudgements (in The Nation piece not the Forbes article which I haven't seen.Anyone able to link?)You mention Moodys.Actually my company subscribes to the full Thailand report and while, as I mentioned earlier there are some challenges in Thailand, the overall view is very favourable.None of this means I endorse all this government's economic policies (I don't - especially the rice pledge support scheme) but it is important not to exaggerate.The infrastructure plan of this government is in fact supported by the Democrats, the objection being to off balance sheet funding.

[whybother]

Great article telling it as is.

Actually it's a pathetic article with numerous errors.Its centrepiece is a Forbes article predicting a 1977 style crash.Since there was no such crash in 1977 one's confidence in its integrity is not exactly enhanced.I follow for business reasons several reputable political and economic forecasters.The political outlook is indeed very uncertain but Thailand's economic position, while facing some challenges, is very soild.If the US and Europe had Thailand's economic strength and resilience, its leaders would be delighted.

So, it's a pathetic article because of a typo?

Forbes is not alone among the financial press in showing an amber light for Thailand's economy

Moody's themselves see enough issues to do so

Of course it's a typo.I took that merely as an example of slovenly journalism.There are many other errors and misjudgements (in The Nation piece not the Forbes article which I haven't seen.Anyone able to link?)You mention Moodys.Actually my company subscribes to the full Thailand report and while, as I mentioned earlier there are some challenges in Thailand, the overall view is very favourable.None of this means I endorse all this government's economic policies (I don't - especially the rice pledge support scheme) but it is important not to exaggerate.The infrastructure plan of this government is in fact supported by the Democrats, the objection being to off balance sheet funding.

"Of course it's a typo.I took that ..."

[JRSoul]

Of course it's a typo.I took that merely as an example of slovenly journalism.There are many other errors and misjudgements (in The Nation piece not the Forbes article which I haven't seen.Anyone able to link?)You mention Moodys.Actually my company subscribes to the full Thailand report and while, as I mentioned earlier there are some challenges in Thailand, the overall view is very favourable.None of this means I endorse all this government's economic policies (I don't - especially the rice pledge support scheme) but it is important not to exaggerate.The infrastructure plan of this government is in fact supported by the Democrats, the objection being to off balance sheet funding.

My suggestion is to throw out PTP, abandon the rice scheme, and put the the THB200 billion/year saved to infrastructure development. After 11 years, the THB2.2 trillion will be achieved without the subsequent 39 years (PTP estimate) of crippling repayments. If your forecast is correct, everything will be rosy.

[Local Drunk]

Great article telling it as is.

Actually it's a pathetic article with numerous errors.Its centrepiece is a Forbes article predicting a 1977 style crash.Since there was no such crash in 1977 one's confidence in its integrity is not exactly enhanced.I follow for business reasons several reputable political and economic forecasters.The political outlook is indeed very uncertain but Thailand's economic position, while facing some challenges, is very soild.If the US and Europe had Thailand's economic strength and resilience, its leaders would be delighted.

You haven't a clue, or you've never made a typo... I think ti should have read '97

http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/1998/august/what-caused-east-asia-financial-crisis/

[robblok]

The administration is fast reaching its used by date, hopefully it will be disbanded before the next election and a truly democratic government can come to power, not another rebranded Thaksin proxy government

A new election will see the same people in government. It will be a PTP / coalition government, except with PTP not having the majority of seats.

I agree, we can't change this they are too corrupt they stolen too much money and can pay of the dumb reds forever.

[dru2]

Great article telling it as is.

Actually it's a pathetic article with numerous errors.Its centrepiece is a Forbes article predicting a 1977 style crash.Since there was no such crash in 1977 one's confidence in its integrity is not exactly enhanced.I follow for business reasons several reputable political and economic forecasters.The political outlook is indeed very uncertain but Thailand's economic position, while facing some challenges, is very soild.If the US and Europe had Thailand's economic strength and resilience, its leaders would be delighted.

So, it's a pathetic article because of a typo?

Forbes is not alone among the financial press in showing an amber light for Thailand's economy

Moody's themselves see enough issues to do so

Of course it's a typo.I took that merely as an example of slovenly journalism.There are many other errors and misjudgements (in The Nation piece not the Forbes article which I haven't seen.Anyone able to link?)You mention Moodys.Actually my company subscribes to the full Thailand report and while, as I mentioned earlier there are some challenges in Thailand, the overall view is very favourable.None of this means I endorse all this government's economic policies (I don't - especially the rice pledge support scheme) but it is important not to exaggerate.The infrastructure plan of this government is in fact supported by the Democrats, the objection being to off balance sheet funding.

Why don't you find it yourself? I posted the link three days ago. Then you should read, consider, inwardly digest and tell us which is pathetic - the article, or someone who condemns it out of hand without having seeing it?

[jayboy]

So, it's a pathetic article because of a typo?

Forbes is not alone among the financial press in showing an amber light for Thailand's economy

Moody's themselves see enough issues to do so

Of course it's a typo.I took that merely as an example of slovenly journalism.There are many other errors and misjudgements (in The Nation piece not the Forbes article which I haven't seen.Anyone able to link?)You mention Moodys.Actually my company subscribes to the full Thailand report and while, as I mentioned earlier there are some challenges in Thailand, the overall view is very favourable.None of this means I endorse all this government's economic policies (I don't - especially the rice pledge support scheme) but it is important not to exaggerate.The infrastructure plan of this government is in fact supported by the Democrats, the objection being to off balance sheet funding.

Why don't you find it yourself? I posted the link three days ago. Then you should read, consider, inwardly digest and tell us which is pathetic - the article, or someone who condemns it out of hand without having seeing it?

I didn't condemn the Forbes article.I commented on the rubbishy Nation article which mentioned it.If you can refer me (by which I mean exactly where you posted it) to the Forbes article article I will gladly comment on it.

[BillyBobThai]

If only the baht could return to 42 to the $.

[jaidam]

The farce has even caught Bloombergs notice today. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-07/thailand-s-big-brother-drama.html

Not many people left that are fooled by clan Shinawat.

[dru2]

So, it's a pathetic article because of a typo?

Forbes is not alone among the financial press in showing an amber light for Thailand's economy

Moody's themselves see enough issues to do so

Of course it's a typo.I took that merely as an example of slovenly journalism.There are many other errors and misjudgements (in The Nation piece not the Forbes article which I haven't seen.Anyone able to link?)You mention Moodys.Actually my company subscribes to the full Thailand report and while, as I mentioned earlier there are some challenges in Thailand, the overall view is very favourable.None of this means I endorse all this government's economic policies (I don't - especially the rice pledge support scheme) but it is important not to exaggerate.The infrastructure plan of this government is in fact supported by the Democrats, the objection being to off balance sheet funding.

Why don't you find it yourself? I posted the link three days ago. Then you should read, consider, inwardly digest and tell us which is pathetic - the article, or someone who condemns it out of hand without having seeing it?

I didn't condemn the Forbes article.I commented on the rubbishy Nation article which mentioned it.If you can refer me (by which I mean exactly where you posted it) to the Forbes article article I will gladly comment on it.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/679430-surapong-suggests-thai-amnesty-bill-opponents-turn-to-intl-court/

[bigbamboo]

The farce has even caught Bloombergs notice today. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-07/thailand-s-big-brother-drama.html

Not many people left that are fooled by clan Shinawat.

It's certainly beginning to look that way both home and abroad.

This is a pretty scathing critique of the Shinawats. Won't make pleasant reading in Dubai or Norway or Hong Kong.

[Prbkk]

I don't know what report you are reading but the broad consensus is that Thailand faces very serious economic challenges over the next few quarters ( and probably years). Far more significant in nature than any short term fall in tourist numbers. Debt levels are at unsustainable levels now and yet this govt is promoting greater domestic spending through borrowing ( even ignoring the lunacy of rice pledging and new car scheme ). This is a government obsessed with staying in power no matter what the long term consequences for the Thai people and the country.

quote name="jayboy" post="7013668" timestamp="1383877042"]

Great article telling it as is.

Actually it's a pathetic article with numerous errors.Its centrepiece is a Forbes article predicting a 1977 style crash.Since there was no such crash in 1977 one's confidence in its integrity is not exactly enhanced.I follow for business reasons several reputable political and economic forecasters.The political outlook is indeed very uncertain but Thailand's economic position, while facing some challenges, is very soild.If the US and Europe had Thailand's economic strength and resilience, its leaders would be delighted.

So, it's a pathetic article because of a typo?

Forbes is not alone among the financial press in showing an amber light for Thailand's economy

Moody's themselves see enough issues to do so

Of course it's a typo.I took that merely as an example of slovenly journalism.There are many other errors and misjudgements (in The Nation piece not the Forbes article which I haven't seen.Anyone able to link?)You mention Moodys.Actually my company subscribes to the full Thailand report and while, as I mentioned earlier there are some challenges in Thailand, the overall view is very favourable.None of this means I endorse all this government's economic policies (I don't - especially the rice pledge support scheme) but it is important not to exaggerate.The infrastructure plan of this government is in fact supported by the Democrats, the objection being to off balance sheet funding.

[waza]

It’s frustrating to think where Thailand might be today had the nation not squandered the last seven years on all things Thaksin. By overreaching so spectacularly with the amnesty bill, Yingluck displayed a level of cluelessness that will further hobble her ability to govern.

So true

[waza]

Then don't forget the constitutional changes as well.

[WAERTH]

The farce has even caught Bloombergs notice today. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-07/thailand-s-big-brother-drama.html

Not many people left that are fooled by clan Shinawat.

The BBC and CNN still are