Typhoon Haiyan: Philippines declares state of calamity

[folium]

I honestly don't know what you read of what I posted. It seems pretty black and white.

"Strongest storms in history based on windspeed"

"Storm Surges... up to 23 feet".

And the "inaccurate prediction" said that "Manila would miss the worst of the winds and the storm surge".

Did any of these not happen then?

The results of this are as predictable as when a typhoon hits Bangladesh.

You have all these people living on the coast in makeshift, jerry-built houses.

How else is it likely to turn out?

The international press were reporting about Tacloban specifically and the warnings being issued to its residents.

The forecasting and prediction were pretty good, see link below:

http://www.rappler.com/move-ph/issues/disasters/typhoon-yolanda/43735-yolandaph-haiyan-preparedness-philippines

The key problem is how individuals, and those in positions of responsibility, perceive the risk. As previously stated the perception is often most relaxed in those who have experienced the event many times before without serious adverse effects (ie a "miss"). An event that does serious damage and take many lives (thus a "hit") fundamentally changes perceptions and usually triggers a response (though the extent of this depends on availability of funding) to mitigate future events via a programme of preparation, planning, practise of drills and actions to reduce impact. Sadly prevention is largely impossible with most natural disasters.

Unfortunately responses are largely driven by responding to an historic event as it is impossible to accurately predict the extent, location and magnitude of the next event, ie we are well prepared to deal with what has happened but will that be sufficient to deal with the next one? Nature rarely repeats itself exactly.

[folium]

You cannot use logic and reasoning to the human conditions. If you want people to evacuate, then you must have shelters that are close by. People must be able to get back to their homes as soon as the crisis is over.

Humans are ruled by emotion more than logic and reason.

This explains why tens of millions of people live in obviously risky places. Tokyo and San Francisco will be destroyed at some stage by a major earthquake, it's just a matter of time. Vesuvius will erupt again yet Naples continues to expand around it.

Risk/hazard perception is a fascinating subject, whether it is looking at natural hazards or the wearing of seatbelts/bike helmets. Human perception drives their actions and reactions.

[Chicog]

You cannot use logic and reasoning to the human conditions. If you want people to evacuate, then you must have shelters that are close by. People must be able to get back to their homes as soon as the crisis is over.

Humans are ruled by emotion more than logic and reason.

I know, and that's the sad thing.

Same as the post above I suppose, people live in San Francisco knowing there's going to be a "big one", yet will they be prepared for it? I doubt it.

Although you do wonder if a different storm in the near future, with the same warnings, going into a different area of the Philippines would elicit a more effective preliminary response.

Say what you like about the 2004 tsunami, at least everywhere you go in Phuket there are now sirens and evacuation path signs everywhere.

[Publicus]

It's really sad that it takes so long to get aid there. People need clean water every day. The USS George Washington carrier group is reported to be underway from Hong Kong, but by the time they recalled many of its 5,000 personnel from shore leave and got underway, and get into position it will be about 3 days which is some time Thursday by now.

A supply ship will get there first, but the carrier group will have the choppers and Ospreys to deliver the goods, and the carrier group will also have a lot of medical supplies and personnel. The carrier itself can produce about 400,000 US gallons of drinking water per day from seawater but they needed it "yesterday."

I can feel the desperation, and it makes me sick.

US efforts to provide as much relief aid as possible are being increased.

In a catastrophe such as this, it's of some comfort to the victims to know that there are people who care, who will help, who will be there. At least that's the idea.

US amphibious ships sent to aid Philippines relief

The US military has also ordered two amphibious ships to the Philippines to help victims of the devastating Typhoon Haiyan and a third was poised to be deployed.

US and Philippine military personnel at a military base in Manila carry packages of relief goods to be brought to the central coastal city of Tacloban which bore the brunt of Super Typhoon Haiyan when it swept through the central Philippines. (AFP/Jay Directo)

As of Monday, US Osprey and KC-130 aircraft had delivered 107,000 pounds (48 metric tonnes) of food, water and other emergency supplies to the Philippines government, officials said.

The Marines can draw on tap water units, transport trucks and Humvee vehicles pre-positioned in the capital Manila, officials said.

The US Agency for International Development also is sending enough emergency shelter and basic hygiene supplies to assist 10,000 families in the Philippines, Little said

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/us-amphibious-ships-sent/884662.html

Edited November 17, 2013 by Publicus

[Publicus]

after Katrina in the Us i wouldn't have them be at the helm , it was so badly handled ! however if the chinese handle it their so cheap and inhumane that they would all be dead by the time any action happened . 100000 from China for assistance ? To a neigbour .... Well i guess its going to bring the China Sea confrontation to a head sooner !

after Katrina in the Us i wouldn't have them be at the helm , it was so badly handled ! however if the chinese handle it their so cheap and inhumane that they would all be dead by the time any action happened . 100000 from China for assistance ? To a neigbour .... Well i guess its going to bring the China Sea confrontation to a head sooner ! oil Jethro Oil !

The fact is China overall is still a poor country.

It's also not the best neighbor to have.

Column: Making sense of China's meager typhoon aid

By Ian Bremmer 19 hours ago

r

.Residents shelter from the rain as they wait to get onto a military plane during an evacuation at Tacloban …

By Ian Bremmer

(Reuters) - Faced with a devastating typhoon a mere 700 miles away, Chinese President Xi Jinping this week pledged financial support for the Philippines, as did nearly every other industrialized nation. Australia offered $30 million; the Europeans $11 million; the United Arab Emirates promised $10 million. China offered $100,000.

The media backlash was immediate. Within days, an embarrassed Beijing upped its pledge to $1.6 million. That's still less than a sixth of the total offered by Japan, China's main regional rival.

What gives - or doesn't give, as the case may be? Why is an economy so big, a government so willing to invest abroad, and a country so eager to win favor in the region stiffing a neighbor in need?

http://news.yahoo.com/column-making-sense-chinas-meager-typhoon-aid-160452908.html

Edited November 17, 2013 by Publicus

[Chicog]

I don't think it's because they're skint somehow.

[tropo]

The results of this are as predictable as when a typhoon hits Bangladesh.

Bangladesh gets destructive storm surges even in lower rated typhoons. A category 3 killed hundred's of thousands. Why? Because most of the country is at or below sea level and 150 million people live on a huge river delta. There's nearly a guarantee of storm surge destruction in Bangladesh whereas it's rare in the Philippines.

I'm still waiting for any stats on a typhoon which caused major storm surge death and destruction in the Philippines.

Even with this typhoon the storm surge only caused damage on the north eastern coast of Leyte.

[tropo]

The media backlash was immediate. Within days, an embarrassed Beijing upped its pledge to $1.6 million. That's still less than a sixth of the total offered by Japan, China's main regional rival.

Let's keep the news current and give credit where credit is due. Currently the Japanese aid package stands at over $30 million and 1000 troops on the ground. It's set to go to $52 million including a $20 million contribution to its poverty reduction fund.

Big shout out to Japan!

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/335590/news/nation/japan-triples-philippines-aid-package-to-over-30-million

[folium]

Link below us an excellent source covering almost any question you ever had and probably more, about tropical cyclones ( aka hurricanes or typhoons).

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/tcfaqHED.html

[Chicog]

The results of this are as predictable as when a typhoon hits Bangladesh.

Bangladesh gets destructive storm surges even in lower rated typhoons. A category 3 killed hundred's of thousands. Why? Because most of the country is at or below sea level and 150 million people live on a huge river delta. There's nearly a guarantee of storm surge destruction in Bangladesh whereas it's rare in the Philippines.

I'm still waiting for any stats on a typhoon which caused major storm surge death and destruction in the Philippines.

Even with this typhoon the storm surge only caused damage on the north eastern coast of Leyte.

I don't know any that hit coastal towns that had warnings before it happened that it was going to get hit by an historically powerful wind and a 23 feet storm surge, so I don't really get why you're asking.

Not that it matters, it's all water under the bridge now (well, if it's still there).

Added: There's some really interesting stuff here, including a graphic that shows how much of the Phils is susceptible to rising sea levels and storms surges.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/11/15/8-maps-that-explain-why-typhoon-haiyan-hit-the-philippines-so-hard/

Edited November 17, 2013 by Chicog

[tropo]

The results of this are as predictable as when a typhoon hits Bangladesh.

Bangladesh gets destructive storm surges even in lower rated typhoons. A category 3 killed hundred's of thousands. Why? Because most of the country is at or below sea level and 150 million people live on a huge river delta. There's nearly a guarantee of storm surge destruction in Bangladesh whereas it's rare in the Philippines.

I'm still waiting for any stats on a typhoon which caused major storm surge death and destruction in the Philippines.

Even with this typhoon the storm surge only caused damage on the north eastern coast of Leyte.

I don't know any that hit coastal towns that had warnings before it happened that it was going to get hit by an historically powerful wind and a 23 feet storm surge, so I don't really get why you're asking.

Not that it matters, it's all water under the bridge now (well, if it's still there).

Added: There's some really interesting stuff here, including a graphic that shows how much of the Phils is susceptible to rising sea levels and storms surges.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/11/15/8-maps-that-explain-why-typhoon-haiyan-hit-the-philippines-so-hard/

Powerful typhoons have hit the Philippines many times before....so my point should be obvious. It is not a country prone to storm surge destruction, as is Bangladesh... in actual fact, using history as a guide I'd have to say that the Philippines is not particularly prone to storm surge destruction.

The first point of contact, Guiuan, was not destroyed by storm surge or even the small islands nearby. It was all wind destruction there.

You probably also missed the part where I mentioned that the storm surge was predicted to reach 5.2 m in Ormoc City, yet no storm surge destruction took place.

It took an exceptionally powerful typhoon coming up the Leyte Gulf at a specific angle to cause the powerful storm surge which destroyed Tacloban. If you look at the map the Leyte Gulf near Tacloban is like a bath tub. There is no historical record of this happening before.

The Washington post article you posted doesn't say anything useful about storm surge destruction. I certainly don't attribute this typhoon to global warming. The most comparable typhoon to form in this area was Typhoon Tip in 1979 and we're looking at a possible difference in wind speeds of only 5 mph. The 1960's saw more typhoons forming in this region than recently.

[folium]

"Prior to the implementation of warning, evacuation, and shelter systems, drowning from storm surge accounted for an estimated 90 percent of cyclone-attributable mortality. High-density settlement in low-lying areas with poor housing construction amplifies risks in nations such as Bangladesh and the Philippines, where storm surge remains the major direct cause of mortality following tropical cyclones".

This maybe true in Bangladesh because 150 million, nearly the entire population live at or near sea level. Do you have any stats on typhoon related storm surge deaths in the Philippines? I really would be interested to see them.

Here's some good info on why the storm surge in Tacloban Bay was so destructive:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/11/11/inside-the-staggering-death-toll-from-haiyan-and-other-southeast-asia-typhoons/

To be honest I have no data re previous storm surge events in the Philippines, take it up with Dr Schultz who wrote the articlle, his details are there.

Storm surges are found with most powerful tropical cyclones but as with tsunamis their size and thus impact are a function of the shape and layout of the coastline. Constricted areas such as the Bay of Bengal, New Orleans, the Thames Estuary, and now Tacloban, highlight the danger of a focused, concentrated storm surge. The actual shape of the sea bed, the presence of offshore obstructions, natural or man-made, and the presence of mangroves/wetlands etc all have a material impact.

Worldwide the main killers in relation to tropical cyclones are indisputably storm surges, flash flooding and secondary landslides. One of China's worst cyclone events was the failure of the Baqiao Dam and downstream smaller dams that either failed or were deliberately blown by aerial bombing, resulting in flooding deaths in the 100's of thousands.

Every cyclone event is unique with differing effects at different locations.

The first and second winds you mention are one of the crueller twists experienced by those close to the eye. Depending on the speed of the cyclone and the diameter of the eye the first pummelling is followed by a relative lull, lulling people into a false sense of security and drawing them from their places of safety, only to be hammered by the even stronger winds associated with the rear wall of the eye coming from the totally opposite direction.

You were very lucky. I take my hat to your resilience and wish you, your family and all your neighbours the very best in what has been and will probably be for a while to come a very trying time....

[tropo]

Here's the last deadly storm surge to hit Tacloban, causing very similar destruction. 115 years ago:

http://ph.news.yahoo.com/history-storms-1900s-newspaper-reveals-devastating-leyte-typhoon-134230084.html

According to an Australian newspaper report it killed 7000.

[tropo]

History: The deadliest typhoons in the Philippines:

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/focus/11/08/13/deadliest-typhoons-philippines

It doesn't list the one above, and the 1st place on the list wasn't a typhoon, but a tropical storm, so taking that into consideration Yolanda is 1st or 2nd in terms of lives lost. There's probably other ones too which have been "forgotten" by the history books.

Edited November 17, 2013 by tropo

[F430murci]

Typhoon Haiyan: A crisis by the numbers

More than a week after one of the most powerful typhoons ever recorded tore through the Philippines, the government and international and national humanitarian agencies face an enormous and difficult task getting aid to those who need it most, leaving little time to begin assessing the damage.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/17/21496134-typhoon-haiyan-a-crisis-by-the-numbers?lite

[tropo]

Typhoon Haiyan: A crisis by the numbers

More than a week after one of the most powerful typhoons ever recorded tore through the Philippines, the government and international and national humanitarian agencies face an enormous and difficult task getting aid to those who need it most, leaving little time to begin assessing the damage.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/17/21496134-typhoon-haiyan-a-crisis-by-the-numbers?lite

That's a good report - thanks for posting.

I think the numbers are about 3 days old (as of Friday, November 15).

[tropo]

Just in case anyone may be interested, Tacloban, Northern Leyte and parts of Samar have a tropical rainforest climate, which means it rains all year with no wet and dry seasons... BUT, the wettest months are November to February. Not good timing at all. The rain is particularly heavy in December and January. The last couple of years that I visited from Dec - Jan it never stopped raining.

Edited November 18, 2013 by tropo

[OZEMADE]

The latest figure is over 4000 dead. However the retrieval dogs were used today on 200 meter section of the beach at Tacloban, they found 50 bodies floating just under the rubbish. When asked how many more deceased could be there, he the soldier stated, approx. 100 more in the same 200 meter section, as they will be further down pinned under the rubble and there are bodies still washing up daily that were taken out to sea, when the water surge retreated back into the ocean.

[Chicog]

Shame isn't it, many will never be found.

I see Google have taken the mantle of the "lost and found" site this time.

[thaibeachlovers]

What I don't understand is that there was/ is a constant litany on the news about a shortage of water. Considering that the same news items showed that it was raining at the time why did no one think to collect rain water? It only takes a sheet of plastic and a container of some sort. Are people so dependent on being told what to do that they can't do the simplest thing to help themselves anymore?

it was also being said that food was in short supply or non existent. Considering I never saw a malnourished person on the tv news and people can live for weeks without food, should not the priority have been to evacuate women with children to unaffected areas, rather than families. The men should have been helping to clean up the debris and look for trapped people, rather than evacuating.

Just thinking.

[tropo]

What I don't understand is that there was/ is a constant litany on the news about a shortage of water. Considering that the same news items showed that it was raining at the time why did no one think to collect rain water? It only takes a sheet of plastic and a container of some sort. Are people so dependent on being told what to do that they can't do the simplest thing to help themselves anymore?

it was also being said that food was in short supply or non existent. Considering I never saw a malnourished person on the tv news and people can live for weeks without food, should not the priority have been to evacuate women with children to unaffected areas, rather than families. The men should have been helping to clean up the debris and look for trapped people, rather than evacuating.

Just thinking.

Let me assure that these people are resourceful. They'll survive on next to nothing where most of us would perish and they are collecting water the best they can. It didn't rain much last week.

As for your comment that these people don't appear malnourished and suggesting that they could go for weeks without food - shame on you. As it happened, many had to go for a week without eating and with very limited water.

There's a lot of different ideas about how relief efforts should proceed, but I'm really glad you're not in charge.

I've put in an effort to feed these poor people and I'm still passing the hat around. It's fortunate that the generous people who have helped out so far didn't expect everyone to go without food for weeks. I managed to feed about 140 people yesterday - I really hope I'll be able to feed some more real soon, but getting money for aid is proving to be very difficult because most people just don't care.

Just saying.

Edited November 18, 2013 by tropo

[Scott]

I am guessing that the healthiest people would line up to get relief aid and then bring it back to the elderly, infirmed and children. I am sure some have drank rain water, but it might not be safe for people with medical conditions and for young children unless it is collected carefully.

[Publicus]

It's really sad that it takes so long to get aid there. People need clean water every day. The USS George Washington carrier group is reported to be underway from Hong Kong, but by the time they recalled many of its 5,000 personnel from shore leave and got underway, and get into position it will be about 3 days which is some time Thursday by now.

A supply ship will get there first, but the carrier group will have the choppers and Ospreys to deliver the goods, and the carrier group will also have a lot of medical supplies and personnel. The carrier itself can produce about 400,000 US gallons of drinking water per day from seawater but they needed it "yesterday."

I can feel the desperation, and it makes me sick.

There is this update, pleased to report of a bad situation.

Asia Pacific

US carrier spearheads Philippine relief operation

A US aircraft carrier sent mercy flights into the typhoon-smashed Philippines on Friday, transporting urgently needed aid for survivors still begging for help in wreckage strewn with bodies one week after the disaster.

File picture shows the US Navy's nuclear-powered USS George Washington Nimitz-class aircraft carrier. (AFP/Noel Celis)

TACLOBAN, Philippines: A US aircraft carrier sent mercy flights into the typhoon-smashed Philippines on Friday, transporting urgently needed aid for survivors still begging for help in wreckage strewn with bodies one week after the disaster.

The USS George Washington is flying missions to towns worst-hit by Super Typhoon Haiyan as well as "remote areas that we could not access earlier," Philippine Air Force spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Miguel Okol said.

Thousands are feared to have died in the storm, and the lives of many others were hanging by the thinnest of threads, even as the relief operations moved up a gear.

US marines prepare relief goods before they are loaded onto a US KC-130 plane for victims of Super Typhoon Haiyan in Tacloban, at a military base in Manila. (AFP/Jay Directo)

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/us-carrier-spearheads/887506.html

Edited November 18, 2013 by Publicus

[F430murci]

Typhoon Haiyan: World Bank offers $500M loan to Philippines as aid logjams persist

As government officials and aid workers struggled to reach communities devastated by Typhoon Haiyan 11 days ago, the World Bank has offered the Philippines a $500-million emergency loan to help it construct buildings able to withstand high winds and severe flooding.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/18/21515801-typhoon-haiyan-world-bank-offers-500m-loan-to-philippines-as-aid-logjams-persist?lite

[Chicog]

If you're donating to the DEC don't waste your money. They were a waste of space in 2004 and they're probably a waste of space now.

And huge amounts of their cash goes on salaries, perks, offices and company cars.

Better to find established smaller NGO's on the ground and send them cash via Paypal or whatever.

[folium]

If you're donating to the DEC don't waste your money. They were a waste of space in 2004 and they're probably a waste of space now.

And huge amounts of their cash goes on salaries, perks, offices and company cars.

Better to find established smaller NGO's on the ground and send them cash via Paypal or whatever.

a tad harsh perhaps...take a look at their accounts

http://www.dec.org.uk/annual-reports

cost of generating donations averaged 3.91% over last 5 years, raising 193 million sterling.

Sure smaller NGOs on the ground are often doing a great job but small scale is not always the best approach in major disasters.

No organization is perfect but good ones learn from their mistakes:

http://www.dec.org.uk/appeals/philippines-typhoon-appeal/disaster-lessons-learned

The British public as of Friday has donated 33 million pounds for the Philippines. Let's not be too churlish....

[tropo]

Clear video showing extent of destruction in Tacloban.

http://www.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/world/2013/11/18/philippines-drone-camera-penhaul.cnn.html

[tropo]

New video of storm surge hitting Tacloban. I can't believe someone filmed that and survived.

http://edition.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/weather/2013/11/17/nr-whitfield-typhoon-surge-hit.cnn.html?hpt=hp_t2

Edited November 18, 2013 by tropo

[Chicog]

The British public as of Friday has donated 33 million pounds for the Philippines. Let's not be too churlish....

The British public has donated 39 million now and good on them. It's the people they are giving it to I'm criticising. Having had first hand experience with them in 2004, I can tell you that they are an ineffective and arrogant bunch of <deleted>.

I know people that offered them aircraft and pilots (gratis) and were refused; I know retired doctors and nurses who were turned away "because they weren't experienced in disaster relief (!) (and went down to Sri Lanka on their own and helped out anyway); I had first hand exposure to the money they wasting hiring and buying equipment that simply wasn't needed, not to mention the ridiculous lead time before they actually put anyone useful on the ground.

And I was married to someone who worked at Oxfam so don't even get me started on that bunch of ****ing scallies.

[tropo]

The British public as of Friday has donated 33 million pounds for the Philippines. Let's not be too churlish....

The British public has donated 39 million now and good on them. It's the people they are giving it to I'm criticising. Having had first hand experience with them in 2004, I can tell you that they are an ineffective and arrogant bunch of <deleted>.

I know people that offered them aircraft and pilots (gratis) and were refused; I know retired doctors and nurses who were turned away "because they weren't experienced in disaster relief (!) (and went down to Sri Lanka on their own and helped out anyway); I had first hand exposure to the money they wasting hiring and buying equipment that simply wasn't needed, not to mention the ridiculous lead time before they actually put anyone useful on the ground.

And I was married to someone who worked at Oxfam so don't even get me started on that bunch of ****ing scallies.

There's a lot of criticism in this forum of charity organisations, but despite all the complaints, there's millions of dollars worth of food and aid getting through to the people in need every single hour.

No system is perfect, but it does work. I'm finding out the hard way that collecting donations in a more personalized, hands-on manner is nearly a waste of effort...

Posts like yours will be seen the wrong way and will be used as an excuse by many people not to donate.

It would be better to discuss this in a different forum at a different time. Right now donations are urgently needed and we don't need to give people an excuse not to contribute.

Here's a shout out to the many charity organisations which are collecting money and keep millions of people alive.

Have you made a donation yet?

Edited November 19, 2013 by tropo