Foreigners pull money out of Thai stocks and bonds

[thailiketoo]

To condense it I quoted the SET Index (14.9% up in 12 months). Prbkk said the market was ripe for shorting. I said, "how would you short the SET?" Prbkk said he didn't know how.

Kind of reminds me of a passenger in a plane saying he thinks the plane is going to crash and the pilot comes out and asks the passenger if he is a pilot and he says, "No, I don't know anything about flying because I'm not a pilot. I just think the plane is going to crash."

[thailiketoo]

...unlimited capacity to twist and misquote. Ex Lehmans?

quote name="thailiketoo" post="7042385" timestamp="1384510870"]

To condense it I quoted the SET Index (14.9% up in 12 months). Prbkk said the market was ripe for shorting. I said, "how would you short the SET?" Prbkk said he didn't know how.

Kind of reminds me of a passenger in a plane saying he thinks the plane is going to crash and the pilot comes out and asks the passenger if he is a pilot and he says, "No, I don't know anything about flying because I'm not a pilot. I just think the plane is going to crash."

It would be a lot easier if you would figure out the quote function. Look at this post. First the quote in a box and then your reply beneath it. Then I could respond to your posts much better.

You said short the Thai stock market. I said how. You said you did not know how. If I did not get that right please feel free to tell me how to short the SET Index.

Edited November 15, 2013 by thailiketoo

[DrTuner]

Not a surprise. A coup or civil war is brewing, thanks to the man in Dubai. It would be interesting how many have reinvested in companies involved with warfare.

[johnthompson]

If foreigners are pulling money out of stocks, then why is the SET still up year over year? Why is the SET still at one of the highest points since 1997? In fact its almost near its absolute highest peak in history.

[thailiketoo]

Not a surprise. A coup or civil war is brewing, thanks to the man in Dubai. It would be interesting how many have reinvested in companies involved with warfare.

You can sleep tonight the SET went up another 5 points today and yesterday and... Don't take this the wrong way but do you get a kick out of shouting fire in a crowded room?

[DrTuner]

Not a surprise. A coup or civil war is brewing, thanks to the man in Dubai. It would be interesting how many have reinvested in companies involved with warfare.

You can sleep tonight the SET went up another 5 points today and yesterday and... Don't take this the wrong way but do you get a kick out of shouting fire in a crowded room?

Of course it's going up. It always is before a Lehman type incident. Just ask the taxi drivers what stock to invest into.

[thailiketoo]

Not a surprise. A coup or civil war is brewing, thanks to the man in Dubai. It would be interesting how many have reinvested in companies involved with warfare.

You can sleep tonight the SET went up another 5 points today and yesterday and... Don't take this the wrong way but do you get a kick out of shouting fire in a crowded room?

Of course it's going up. It always is before a Lehman type incident. Just ask the taxi drivers what stock to invest into.

You do realize it has been going up for 12 years? At what point during the last twelve years or the next 12 years do you expect a Lehman type incident?

[Thai at Heart]

If foreigners are pulling money out of stocks, then why is the SET still up year over year? Why is the SET still at one of the highest points since 1997? In fact its almost near its absolute highest peak in history.

Ummm? Because foreigners don't own the whole market?

[Thai at Heart]

Not a surprise. A coup or civil war is brewing, thanks to the man in Dubai. It would be interesting how many have reinvested in companies involved with warfare.

You can sleep tonight the SET went up another 5 points today and yesterday and... Don't take this the wrong way but do you get a kick out of shouting fire in a crowded room?

Of course it's going up. It always is before a Lehman type incident. Just ask the taxi drivers what stock to invest into.

Unless the number for Thailand are completely cooked, most developed nations would love took swap with Thailand for their numbers.

That said Thailand still had problems but the conditions for a Lehman brothers is not there. In fact it is because Thailand didn't get into exotic derivatives that they were insulated from 2008.

Their issue is the level of private mortgages.

[Prbkk]

Your desire to compare Thailand's situation with the USA is pointless. However, as you would be aware ,Moody's recently downgraded 2 Thai banks on the understanding that the Thai govt would not bail them out in the event of failure ( a correct interpretation of the Thai position, although an unlikely event).

The point that the SET has been increasing for 12 years? Yes, some people have made a lot of money. Many more will lose a fortune in the event of a decline or correction. Notwithstanding your reassurance that the market is up 5 points here or there, the reality is it is down 50 points over the past 5 or 6 weeks ( not insubstantial in a market index of 1420).

Perhaps you might look to the Japanese market if you believe the only way is up. 1985: 37.000 Today: 14500 low point : 7,900?

I think you suffer from an exuberance of optimism ( or whatever Greenspan's exact words were) if you believe the Thai economy is well-positioned. Most people talking markets up in the face of strong evidence to the contrary have a vested interest in the matter

Did you know that before the 2008 worldwide economic crisis, the US banks were selling substandard products to their clients with the excuse it was prine product, and at the same time they wre betting against the product they just sold ? Surprised it went up, untill the floor fell out of it ?

Did you know that the FED issues billions of $ in bonds every month, for many months already, and that the majority of it is bought by themselves ? Only to prevent the market of crashing.

Would you believe that something similar could happen on the Thai stock market ? At least the FED is honest about their actions.

You think Thailand is like the number 1 economy in the world? How much debt to other countries do you think Thailand has? How much unemployment do you think Thailand has? How many banks have failed in Thailand in the past 10 years? I could go on buy I think you get the idea.

I have asked you the following questions.

1. List the ways the Thai economy is like the USA?

2. List the foreign debt of Thailand and the USA?

3. List the unemployment rate of Thailand and the USA?

4. List how many banks have failed in Thailand and the USA in the past 10 years?

[PeterSmiles]

Did you know that before the 2008 worldwide economic crisis, the US banks were selling substandard products to their clients with the excuse it was prine product, and at the same time they wre betting against the product they just sold ? Surprised it went up, untill the floor fell out of it ?

Did you know that the FED issues billions of $ in bonds every month, for many months already, and that the majority of it is bought by themselves ? Only to prevent the market of crashing.

Would you believe that something similar could happen on the Thai stock market ? At least the FED is honest about their actions.

You think Thailand is like the number 1 economy in the world? How much debt to other countries do you think Thailand has? How much unemployment do you think Thailand has? How many banks have failed in Thailand in the past 10 years? I could go on buy I think you get the idea.

I have asked you the following questions.

1. List the ways the Thai economy is like the USA?

2. List the foreign debt of Thailand and the USA?

3. List the unemployment rate of Thailand and the USA?

4. List how many banks have failed in Thailand and the USA in the past 10 years?

Let me answer all your questions with a single answer, which explains why the 1997 Asian crisis started in Thailand. You will know that history may repeat itself anywhere in the world.

As I said, at least the FED is honest about what it's doing.

On May 23 the government made an attempt to save “Finance One,” Thailand’s largest finance company, via a merger with another financial institution. But again it could not fulfill its mission. As only one month later, the new finance minister ‘discovered’ that the Bank of Thailand had already used US$ 28 billion out of US$ 30 billion of its international reserves in the course of forward market interventions to defend the value of the baht.

As previously discussed, real estates were non-tradable; thus, there was a constraint in market demand of them. Too many houses and business buildings were built; by 1997, the commercial vacancy rate had gone up to 15% (Table7). The real estate business had become unprofitable., and the business owners, thus, had no capacity to pay back their debts to financial institutions when the maturity came. The percentage of non-performing loans had risen up to 13% in 1996.

If I look around wherever I travel in Thailand currently, I get the impression that the current vacancy rate is way above 15%.

Furthermore, it was worth noted that the lending boom was significantly larger for finance and securities companies than for banks (133% of the former as opposed to 51% of the latter).

Sounds familiar? if not just look out of your window and see how many lending and finance companies you can count. Don't go to the kitchen for a cold beer, because on your returm there will have appeared another one already.

http://www.columbia.edu/cu/thai/html/financial97_98.html

[thailiketoo]

I asked

1. List the ways the Thai economy is like the USA?

2. List the foreign debt of Thailand and the USA?

3. List the unemployment rate of Thailand and the USA?

4. List how many banks have failed in Thailand and the USA in the past 10 years?

You didn't answer anything I asked, you quoted a 10 year old article from an American University.

Vacancy rate? Link? You can't just make up stuff and expect folks to believe you.

You wrote, " Did you know that the FED issues billions of $ in bonds every month, for many months already, and that the majority of it is bought by themselves ? Only to prevent the market of crashing. Would you believe that something similar could happen on the Thai stock market"

No. There is nothing the same about Thailand and the USA.

[PeterSmiles]

I asked

1. List the ways the Thai economy is like the USA?

2. List the foreign debt of Thailand and the USA?

3. List the unemployment rate of Thailand and the USA?

4. List how many banks have failed in Thailand and the USA in the past 10 years?

You didn't answer anything I asked, you quoted a 10 year old article from an American University.

Vacancy rate? Link? You can't just make up stuff and expect folks to believe you.

You wrote, " Did you know that the FED issues billions of $ in bonds every month, for many months already, and that the majority of it is bought by themselves ? Only to prevent the market of crashing. Would you believe that something similar could happen on the Thai stock market"

No. There is nothing the same about Thailand and the USA.

You're right nothing the same about Thailand and the USA. I told you many times already, the FED admits that the buy the bonds with the sole purpose to support the market, where the Thai's wouldn't admit in a thousand years that the doing something similar with the stock market.

How many reports from credible international rating agency's like Moody's or the IMF you need to read, that they are cutting themselves deep with rice pledging, yet the government keeps claiming that it is all profit.

I could look up a link that shows the foreign debt of Thailand, but after all the " white " damn big black lies they were FORCED to admit to so far, would anyone in his right mind believe any figure this government publish .

I don't have officilal vacancy rates , I judge with my eyes, but if you post a link to them I will do the same.

Unemployment rate is very low in Thailand, but I have no doubt you know how unemployment rate is calculated worldwide. It counts those that receive social security and those that are looking for want to work .

Look how many banks are on life support currently, and how many will fail when the . Don't put the cart in front of the horse yet, be a little patient.

[thailiketoo]

Since you are unable to answer I will

Foreign debt per capita USA, $52,170 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt)
Foreign debt per capita Thailand, $1,292

Unemployment Thailand, 1%

Unemployment USA, 14% (http://www.forbes.com/sites/dandiamond/2013/07/05/why-the-real-unemployment-rate-is-higher-than-you-think/)

USA failed banks 2008 to 2012: 465 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_bank_failures_in_the_United_States_%282008%E2%80%93present%29)

Thai failed banks 2008 to 2012: 2

USA and Thailand have nothing in common.

[DrTuner]

At what point during the last twelve years or the next 12 years do you expect a Lehman type incident?

3-4 years in the future. When Thaksin manages to turn the legislation favorable to his return and tries it. Shorter timeframes might still be worth it.

[PeterSmiles]

Since you are unable to answer I will

Foreign debt per capita USA, $52,170 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt)

Foreign debt per capita Thailand, $1,292

Ok, could you also please tell us as a comparison what the income per capita and standard of living is in the USA compared to Thailand ?

Unemployment Thailand, 1%

Unemployment USA, 14% (http://www.forbes.com/sites/dandiamond/2013/07/05/why-the-real-unemployment-rate-is-higher-than-you-think/)

Told you already that unemployment figures are calculated from the people that receive unemployment benefits ( where are those in Thailand ? ), or from the people that are looking for work. Do you really think that the men who flood the snooker halls in Pattaya and Isaan and have a " sister" working in walking street, are looking for a job ? A Thai lives from day to day, as long as he has food why should he look for a job. Ever been to Isaan by any chance ?

USA failed banks 2008 to 2012: 465 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_bank_failures_in_the_United_States_%282008%E2%80%93present%29)

Thai failed banks 2008 to 2012: 2

You forgot at the at least 3 banks that are currently on life support, and of course don't forget the bottomless agriculture bank.

How many banks failed in the USA prior to 2008 when the ? I guess it was less than 2, because they were all doing golden business cheating and lying to their clients. Oh by the way, I doubt that Thailand even has 465 banks, so difficult to make a comparison.

USA and Thailand have nothing in common.

If I look at the banks and thousands of lending companies and pawn shops in Thailand, who all do a roaring business , then i think Thailand has a lot of common with the USA in 2007.

Soon they will have a lot in common with the USA from 2008 till date.

Edited November 15, 2013 by PeterSmiles

[sgtsabai]

I cannot say with any accuracy whether there is a building (credit?) bubble or not, but I can see the dozens of new subdivisions going up around Udon. I'm not going to drive and count even just on my part of the outer ring road but my subdivision has gone from one to 4 sections and new houses still being built all the time (damn it). There are 5 or 6 new subdivisions just within a mile or so of us. New construction and housing is everywhere. Huge New 'Home Pro' types of stores on the highways. The major shopping mall rebuilt and certainly up scale, new IT mall along with UD Town. I also see a lot of new used vehicle lots and expansion in the older ones. Maybe some folks couldn't pay after they bought under the "First Time Buyer" program? I have a hard time believing the money and customers are here for all of this, but I certainly could be wrong. I never went past Economics 102 in college, but my instincts tell me there is a bubble and it almost has to pop.

[Prbkk]

Private debt to GDP @ 77%. 5 years ago it was about 35%. Sustainable? Not IMHO.

[PeterSmiles]

To answer your questions,

1. Debt % of GDP USA 106%

Debt % GDP Thailand 26%

2. If the banks were cheating they would be more likely to fail not less. Score Thailand 2 USA 465

3. USA has far more pawn shop and loan shops than Thailand. Peanuts in comparison to banks.

4. http://chartingthailandeconomy.com/en/tag/thailands-unemployment-rate/

1. You are comparing the debt of the USA after the shit hit the fan with the debt of Thailand before the shit hit the fan.

You will also notice in my previous post that the new kid on the block finance minister in 1997 " discovered" that the foreign reserves that were claimed actually weren't there.

Don't you think something something similar can rise again in a country where is claimed that the rice scam scheme is profitable, while international agency's point out oevr and over that the government is telling porkies.

2 . The banks in the US were also not failing at the time they were cheating and lying, they were loading and paying billions of dollars to their CEO's, it was only after the truth was exposed that the failed one after another.

Again you are comparing the US after the event with Thailand BEFORE the event.

3. The US has a population 5 times as large as Thailand, so one would assume they need more banks and pawnshops to serve these people.

4. And how they calculate how many people are employed in a country where there is next to none social security, so where only the bigger factories announce their employment figures ? You keep beating must be that when I take a drive through Isaan I must have seen all the unemployed .

Edit to add : By the way how much will the 2.2 Trillion baht add to the Thailand debt figure?

Edited November 15, 2013 by PeterSmiles

[Jib Teenuc]

I find it strange that when I go to places like New York, everyone in the service industry (bar staff, cab drivers etc) is polite (without being overly defferential) and is "doing this job to pay the bills, but I'm actually a [writer/actor/musician/politician/inventor/entrepeneur] etc., it's invariably a positive attitude and a belief in their future success and futherment. Until then, they don't mind being impressed/envious that you (the client) can afford to spend the time and money to take a vacation in their city.

In Thailand, everyone in the service industry appears to be overly defferential, yet content with their lot. No ambition and no obvious plan to further themselves ( winning the lottery aside). Yet each and every one apparently possesses an inbuilt superiority to me, despite the fact he/she is currently polishing my shoes and isn't impressed in the slightest that I can afford to spend time and money vacationing in their town. There is little positivity apart from getting through the next day/week/month. No apparent ambition at all.

Little wonder that the Thai psyche appears to be even more "she'll be right" than an Aussie on crystal-meth.

Am I alone in observing this?

Edited November 16, 2013 by Jib Teenuc

[thailiketoo]

Private debt to GDP @ 77%. 5 years ago it was about 35%. Sustainable? Not IMHO.

Link please

[Prbkk]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/11/04/thailands-bubble-economy-is-heading-for-a-1997-style-crash/2/

[PeterSmiles]

To answer your questions,

1. Debt % of GDP USA 106%

Debt % GDP Thailand 26%

2. If the banks were cheating they would be more likely to fail not less. Score Thailand 2 USA 465

3. USA has far more pawn shop and loan shops than Thailand. Peanuts in comparison to banks.

4. http://chartingthailandeconomy.com/en/tag/thailands-unemployment-rate/

1. You are comparing the debt of the USA after the shit hit the fan with the debt of Thailand before the shit hit the fan.

You will also notice in my previous post that the new kid on the block finance minister in 1997 " discovered" that the foreign reserves that were claimed actually weren't there.

Don't you think something something similar can rise again in a country where is claimed that the rice scam scheme is profitable, while international agency's point out oevr and over that the government is telling porkies.

2 . The banks in the US were also not failing at the time they were cheating and lying, they were loading and paying billions of dollars to their CEO's, it was only after the truth was exposed that the failed one after another.

Again you are comparing the US after the event with Thailand BEFORE the event.

3. The US has a population 5 times as large as Thailand, so one would assume they need more banks and pawnshops to serve these people.

4. And how they calculate how many people are employed in a country where there is next to none social security, so where only the bigger factories announce their employment figures ? You keep beating must be that when I take a drive through Isaan I must have seen all the unemployed .

Edit to add : By the way how much will the 2.2 Trillion baht add to the Thailand debt figure?

Answers to your questions.

1. No. This is nothing like 1997.

2. Banks cheating and lying? List the failed banks that cheated and lied? They got bailed out by the government. Has nothing to do with Thailand. It's not Thai related. US is not Thailand.

3. Yes. So? Pawnshops in Thailand are not banks and only a small percent of the wealth of the country. No way to count because the amount is small in comparison to banks and industry.

4. Social security has nothing to do with calculating unemployment.

This is my last answer to you. If you want to debate your experiences in Issan good for you. That is not why foreigners pull money out of Thai stocks and has nothing to do with this debate nor can we calculate the economics of your experiences. Sorry but personel anecdotal evidence is useless to debate so I am finished.

You want to debate the future which you claim to know. Sorry I can't debate the future. No one knows the future.

Glad to see that you agree to disagree. It wasn't me who brought up the US as a comparison to Thailand, because indeed there isn't.

I also can't read the future, nor do I want to predict it.

My point is that you come on here proclaiming that everything is fine in Thailand, thereby telling us that it is completely different from the US over and over again, and this government is one of the more honest this country has ever had, while a blind man can see that everything is clearly NOT ok in this count

Or do you think the foreigners who pull out there money amass are the same people who occupy a bar stool in walking street at night, and actually know nothing but are just acting on a whim?

By the way just to name 1 cheating bank that failed and didn't get bailed out. Lehman brothers.

And you are probably aware that they had heavily invested in Thailand as well. The left over ruins of their investments are still visible at certain locations in this country.

[smileydude]

Where the herd goes is not necessarily the best direction.

Exceptional investors are opportunists who see what others don't.

I bet some are scooping up great deals right now.

[DrTuner]

I bet some are scooping up great deals right now.

They always are. In preparation for civil unrest in Thailand one could f.ex. take a look at this: https://www.asdreports.com/table-of-content.asp?id=71858&desc=Future+of+the+Thai+Defense+Industry+-+Market+Attractiveness%2C+Competitive+Landscape+and+Forecasts+to+2018

4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics

4.1. Import Market Dynamics

4.1.1. Thailand’s defense imports are expected to increase over the forecast period

4.1.2. Sweden and Ukraine to remain the key arms suppliers to Thailand

4.1.3. Helicopters and armored vehicles are expected to be the key imports for Thailand

4.2. Export Market Dynamics

4.2.1. No defense exports for Thailand

So, Sweden and Ukraine, take a look at the shares of helicopter and armored vehicle suppliers.

BTW when talking about SET, what do people actually trade ? Futures ? Owning stock that may not even be part of the index doesn't really correlate.

[kinmaew]

Good. Pull it all out, and let's see if Thais continue with their unfounded arrogance.

agree. I cant belive anyone would want to invest in Thailand anyway when you can have rock solid investments in Europe/Aus/US/UK where your money and rights are protected you can own 100% land etc why bother with Thailand. Like the girls, the food? keep your money at home and rent in Thailand its the only way I would be able to remain sane and sleep at night. Thais, their governemnt their laws cannot be trusted.

[Robby nz]

Don't know if this is the place to ask but what the heck .

Does anyone know what Thailands overseas reserves stood at when the Dems took office and what they stood at when PT took over?

Also what they stand at now?

Last I read they had dropped $600 million in one week, don't know why that would be.

[thailiketoo]

Don't know if this is the place to ask but what the heck .

Does anyone know what Thailands overseas reserves stood at when the Dems took office and what they stood at when PT took over?

Also what they stand at now?

Last I read they had dropped $600 million in one week, don't know why that would be.

Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves averaged 29512.7 USD Million reaching an all time high of 189883.7 USD Million in April of 2011. In May 2011, the Pheu Thai Party nominated Yingluck as their candidate for Prime Minister. The Pheu Thai Party won a landslide victory, winning 265 seats in the 500 seat House of Representatives of Thailand, It was only the second time in Thai political history that a single party won a parliamentary majority.

[PeterSmiles]

Don't know if this is the place to ask but what the heck .

Does anyone know what Thailands overseas reserves stood at when the Dems took office and what they stood at when PT took over?

Also what they stand at now?

Last I read they had dropped $600 million in one week, don't know why that would be.

Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves averaged 29512.7 USD Million reaching an all time high of 189883.7 USD Million in April of 2011. In May 2011, the Pheu Thai Party nominated Yingluck as their candidate for Prime Minister. The Pheu Thai Party won a landslide victory, winning 265 seats in the 500 seat House of Representatives of Thailand, It was only the second time in Thai political history that a single party won a parliamentary majority.

Why you don't say that the have declined from their all time high under the democats ever since Thaksin Yingluck bought herself a PM position and currently stand at 172087.31 USD Million.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/foreign-exchange-reserves

And that they will use a BIG chunk of it to add to the 2.2 trillion loan.

Aaah, those good past times but so afraid of acknowledging of what is looming at the horizon, isn't it ?

[thailiketoo]

Don't know if this is the place to ask but what the heck .

Does anyone know what Thailands overseas reserves stood at when the Dems took office and what they stood at when PT took over?

Also what they stand at now?

Last I read they had dropped $600 million in one week, don't know why that would be.

Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves averaged 29512.7 USD Million reaching an all time high of 189883.7 USD Million in April of 2011. In May 2011, the Pheu Thai Party nominated Yingluck as their candidate for Prime Minister. The Pheu Thai Party won a landslide victory, winning 265 seats in the 500 seat House of Representatives of Thailand, It was only the second time in Thai political history that a single party won a parliamentary majority.

Why you don't say that the have declined from their all time high under the democats ever since Thaksin Yingluck bought herself a PM position and currently stand at 172087.31 USD Million.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/foreign-exchange-reserves

And that they will use a BIG chunk of it to add to the 2.2 trillion loan.

Aaah, those good past times but so afraid of acknowledging of what is looming at the horizon, isn't it ?

Do you think my chart is wrong?