Abhisit slams Pheu Thai for announcement it won't recognise court ruling

[Robby nz]

The point is not whether the court should ban anyone or not or even that they should have accepted the case or not.

The point is that everyone should be bound by the law of the country no matter how important they think they are.

Here we have a group saying they will not recognize a decision of a court which is effect saying that they are above the law.

They are saying outright and in public that will not obey the law of the country and do whatever they want and apparently believing they can get away with it.

And to show their total disregard for the law they have a group of thugs threatening and intimidating the judges, as in :

The community radio for democracy group will rally at the home of each constitutional court judge if it rules against the constitution amendment.

Is that democracy ?

It certainly isn't respecting the rule of law.

If the supposed law makers refuse to recognize the rule of law why should anyone else ?

[fareastguy]

When your in a hole it pays to stop digging!!

[GeorgeO]

Pretty dumb. They should have at least waited until after the ruling. Also, what choice do they have? If they are banned, are they just going to turn up at parliament as normal and pretend the ruling never happened?

If they do, they will find lots of soldiers and tanks waiting for them......

[h90]

No you are wrong. If the constitution makes it necessary to ban them than they must be banned. If not than not.

It is about right and wrong, it isn't a popularity contest.

And if the court must ban all the government every 2 years than so it is. Actually the law should be much stronger and MPs should be banned much easier.

Yes, it should be about right and wrong. It should be based entirely on what the constitution dictates with no other factors involved. But how does amending constitution for elected senate contravene section 68? I can't see how it does. And if I can't, don't be surprised if people who actually have something at stake resting on this decision see the decision as politicized.

They shouldn't keep banning parties, either. They should punish the individual responsible, but stop punishing the party as a whole and executives unless it can be found that they were directly involved. Make the law tougher for the individual responsible, sure. I'd say a ten year ban for starters.

This photo just gives a new spin...they let the police which protect the court wear a red scarf.

(Photo taken from the Nation Twitter) --> photo not allowed...but can be seen on the nation webpage at tweeter

On not banning parties...I am undecided. Maybe you are right. Anyway it doesn't help. For the individuals I would say, lifetime ban, hefty fee and jail term.

[siampolee]

Now we all can see clearly the direction that this puppet government has been taking as many have warned. Thaksin seeks total pow and the establishment of a political dynasty based upon nepotism corruption and the rule of fear.

The political system has been manipulated the judicial process has been tampered with and now we see that in truth there is nor was there ever any respect for the judicial system in this country that Thaksin wishes to destroy to further his, his family and their brown nosing acolytes own ends.

Indeed the contempt that the aforementioned creatures show for Thailand and its peoples is beyond belief.

Now those politicians who sided with Thaksin due to money politics need to be careful as when and if the Thaksin plans succeed those politically immoral characters will find themselves out in the cold just like the Red Shirt pawns, they've served their purpose or rather Thaksins purpose, now or then they will be rounded up and controlled, some may well find a more dire destiny as they may well be considered political unsound and thus pose a risk to Thaksin and his dictatorship.

It is indeed an interesting situation and one is led to wonder which way this country and it peoples future may go in the not too distant future.

This statement from the P.T.P. puppet government may well yet be the death knell of them. They have handed their opponents a gold card of the right to protest most vigorously against their ( the P.T.P.) self presumed or rather Thaksins presumed right to ignore the due judicial process and at a guess the country's constitution as well.

[MrSlatersParrot]

No you are wrong. If the constitution makes it necessary to ban them than they must be banned. If not than not.

It is about right and wrong, it isn't a popularity contest.

And if the court must ban all the government every 2 years than so it is. Actually the law should be much stronger and MPs should be banned much easier.

Yes, it should be about right and wrong. It should be based entirely on what the constitution dictates with no other factors involved. But how does amending constitution for elected senate contravene section 68? I can't see how it does. And if I can't, don't be surprised if people who actually have something at stake resting on this decision see the decision as politicized.

They shouldn't keep banning parties, either. They should punish the individual responsible, but stop punishing the party as a whole and executives unless it can be found that they were directly involved. Make the law tougher for the individual responsible, sure. I'd say a ten year ban for starters.

Making it OK to ban an entire party for 20,000 baht or whatever it was on the one hand but when it was the Dems and the $5,000,000 illegal donation from the cement company with payments to MP's wives,relatives (all under 2 million baht so the banks couldn't report it) the court saw fit to dismiss the case on the grounds that the original submissions weren't made within the regulatory 2 weeks,that after 6 months of deliberation.

Of course we then saw the phone videos of Abhisit's man negotiating with the judges etc etc referring to PTP as IT, IT, IT.

It's like banning the president and the democrats because say a polish democrat mayor of chicago is guilty of corruption

[smutcakes]

Now we all can see clearly the direction that this puppet government has been taking as many have warned. Thaksin seeks total pow and the establishment of a political dynasty based upon nepotism corruption and the rule of fear.

The political system has been manipulated the judicial process has been tampered with and now we see that in truth there is nor was there ever any respect for the judicial system in this country that Thaksin wishes to destroy to further his, his family and their brown nosing acolytes own ends.

Indeed the contempt that the aforementioned creatures show for Thailand and its peoples is beyond belief.

Now those politicians who sided with Thaksin due to money politics need to be careful as when and if the Thaksin plans succeed those politically immoral characters will find themselves out in the cold just like the Red Shirt pawns, they've served their purpose or rather Thaksins purpose, now or then they will be rounded up and controlled, some may well find a more dire destiny as they may well be considered political unsound and thus pose a risk to Thaksin and his dictatorship.

It is indeed an interesting situation and one is led to wonder which way this country and it peoples future may go in the not too distant future.

This statement from the P.T.P. puppet government may well yet be the death knell of them. They have handed their opponents a gold card of the right to protest most vigorously against their ( the P.T.P.) self presumed or rather Thaksins presumed right to ignore the due judicial process and at a guess the country's constitution as well.

They would not know what to do with a gold card, they would probably try and sell it.

[siampolee]

They would not know what to do with a gold card, they would probably try and sell it.

Now with you being such an erudite fellow smutcakes could you explain the depth of your comment and its impact upon the political protest that is ongoing at the moment?

Do not judge others by your actions in such a situation.

Edited November 19, 2013 by siampolee

[renaissanc]

Pheu Thaksin are being very silly. If they refuse to obey the Court, then it is clear that the Boss has declared the beginning of dictatorship. This will bring out many more demonstrators out of the woodwork because if they don't oppose this, then dictatorship will become the government system officially.

[h90]

No you are wrong. If the constitution makes it necessary to ban them than they must be banned. If not than not.

It is about right and wrong, it isn't a popularity contest.

And if the court must ban all the government every 2 years than so it is. Actually the law should be much stronger and MPs should be banned much easier.

Yes, it should be about right and wrong. It should be based entirely on what the constitution dictates with no other factors involved. But how does amending constitution for elected senate contravene section 68? I can't see how it does. And if I can't, don't be surprised if people who actually have something at stake resting on this decision see the decision as politicized.

They shouldn't keep banning parties, either. They should punish the individual responsible, but stop punishing the party as a whole and executives unless it can be found that they were directly involved. Make the law tougher for the individual responsible, sure. I'd say a ten year ban for starters.

Making it OK to ban an entire party for 20,000 baht or whatever it was on the one hand but when it was the Dems and the $5,000,000 illegal donation from the cement company with payments to MP's wives,relatives (all under 2 million baht so the banks couldn't report it) the court saw fit to dismiss the case on the grounds that the original submissions weren't made within the regulatory 2 weeks,that after 6 months of deliberation.

Of course we then saw the phone videos of Abhisit's man negotiating with the judges etc etc referring to PTP as IT, IT, IT.

It's like banning the president and the democrats because say a polish democrat mayor of chicago is guilty of corruption

????? 20.000 ????? for 20.000 was the evidence, but everyone including the judges know that PTP did a full scale vote buying. Like they got Al Capone only for a relative small case.

And of course if the get the Democrats for something similar they should be also disbanded.

I am not sure if the law is good that way, but I think the idea behind is, that when the executive is doing it and everyone knows it and no one reports it than the complete party is rotten down. Per law, when the party reports themself that one of them is vote buying than it will not be disbanded.

And if we are honest, the Democrats with all their failures are in compare to the PTP super clean.

[h90]

Pheu Thaksin are being very silly. If they refuse to obey the Court, then it is clear that the Boss has declared the beginning of dictatorship. This will bring out many more demonstrators out of the woodwork because if they don't oppose this, then dictatorship will become the government system officially.

Well it is to intimidate the court. If they like the decision, that this all is forgot tomorrow.

Lets hope that the judges do the right thing.

[monkeycountry]

Fortunately it does not really matter if the PTP accepts the CC ruling or not, as any change to the constitution still has to be approved by HM the King, who is very unlikely to approve anything that has been rejected by the CC.

The PTP can of course decide not to accept HM the Kings authority as well, and just push ahead without HM the King's approval, but I am quite sure such a move would literally be the end of the PTP

[SICHONSTEVE]

Pretty dumb. They should have at least waited until after the ruling. Also, what choice do they have? If they are banned, are they just going to turn up at parliament as normal and pretend the ruling never happened?

Which of course would work, but it would be a coup. Things like that happened in the past in other countries. The next step would be to put the judges in jail and form a peoples court and convict them for treason.

Of course the reds would call the banning a coup by the courts.

And it could trigger many things, coup is just one of it.

Well, all those things are possibilities. The problem here is that many feel that the court shouldn't have accepted this case. And I think the court realizes that, so whilst it might rule on the relatively minor issue of some MPs using others' cards to vote or whatever it is, I doubt they would've taken the extreme step of banning MPs in what looks like an extremely controversial and dubious case, unless of course, they were, subject to external pressure. That's why PT should've waited. Now it looks as though they're no longer going to accept the authority of the CC whatever happens, which I think is a premature move at this point. At this point it looks certain to lead to massive upheaval if the court makes the wrong decision, and the problem of ensuring a functioning democracy & rule of law will start to look intractable.

What!! You mean they should accept Thailand becoming a dictatorship, because thats what will happen if they achieve control of both the lower and upper houses!!

Why do you say that this is dubious and wrong case? It is not the PTP MP's using other peoples ID cards to vote for others in their absence that is in question, it is their determination to have the majority of the senator house representatives as Pheu Thai sympathisers/family members/friends of Thaksin etc: with no time limit on how long they can serve as senators. This is clearly a breach of the constitution as they are trying to eliminate having checks and balances on legislature and can pass anything they want without any opposition.

They have already made one gigantic cock-up with the amnesty bill and the underhand way in which they attempted to pass it into law and not recognising the authority of the constitutional court will be their undoing!!

Bring in the army!!

[tragickingdom]

And that from a man who does not respect the wish of the voters when his party loses (and that is always)

[coma]

PTP really wants to bring this country to its knees.

[monkeycountry]

Had the PTP and the red shirts done nothing, there is a good chance the CC would have voted in their favour, and they would have emerged victorious.

Now they threaten the judges, which means if the PTP win tomorrow, the opposition can reasonably claim the PTP won only because the judges were scared for the wellbeing of themselves and their families, and make a new court case out of that. If the PTP lose, they will either have to comply with the ruling, which will be a loss of face to the PTP as they have just stated they would not comply. Or they can proceed with submitting the new law to HM the King, who will most likely reject it due to the CC ruling, which will also be a loss of face to the PTP. So in short, todays statement means the PTP will lose no matter what happens tomorrow.

We can of course argue if demonstrating at a judges private residence prior to a ruling is a threat or not, but I would appreciate if the red shirt supporters on this forum could let me know if such a demonstration would be legal and not considered a direct threat in any of their home countries?

[siampolee]

monkeycountry post # 48

We can of course argue if demonstrating at a judges private residence prior to a ruling is a threat or not, but I would appreciate if the red shirt supporters on this forum could let me know if such a demonstration would be legal and not considered a direct threat in any of their home countries?

Highly unlikely that you will get a logical reply as such a post would require a moral standard to differentiate twixt democracy and dictatorship.

More chance of opening a Pork Butchers at Mecca than getting a balanced reply from the Thaksin P.T.P.. fan(tasy) club.

[Baerboxer]

Pheu Thaksin are being very silly. If they refuse to obey the Court, then it is clear that the Boss has declared the beginning of dictatorship. This will bring out many more demonstrators out of the woodwork because if they don't oppose this, then dictatorship will become the government system officially.

Corner a rat and it fights to the death, nothing to loose. Thaksin overplayed his hand on the amnesty bill. Now he has to take even bigger chances to get the dictatorship he craves. He clearly still believes the army will not intervene as per his comments on the leaked tape when he was talking to the deputy DM, who has been noticeably inconspicuous since then,

He has made lots of efforts to control the press and social media, make sure all the BiB are under control, neutralize the army, keep the red thugs in check and manouver his boys into key positions. Must cost a lot - the 2,2 trillion and 350 million would come in handy.

Defying the CC is the latest push to see how far he can go with no reaction. If the court rules against PTP and they ignore it, and there isn't a coup, then PTP will ignore everything else they don't like and the amnesty bill will be unsuspended and rammed through at the earliest possible date.

People have to realize that this gang are not remotely interested in law and order, democracy or anyone but themselves, the clan and the cronies.

[hellodolly]

Roll out the Tanks! Military coups in this country do not affect the population and if that is what is required to rid Thailand of the shiniwatra cancer then so be it. I am sure this latest snapshot of Thai democracy will win a lot of votes for Thailand with its bid for a UN security council seat.

If they fail to obey by the courts decision yes I think a coup would be a high probability. This time it would have to be a permanent one. To achieve that some one would have to go to Dubai. If a new constitution was to come out of it and I think it should. It would have to include holding a public office does not protect you from prosecution. If that was the only thing changed it would be a vast improvement over what we have now.

It is ridicules that you can be charged with murder get elected and not be prosecuted right away. I did not think the court would rule against the PTP but the fact that they say they don't care they are going to do what they want speaks volumes to the need of a coup.

[Artisi]

Fortunately it does not really matter if the PTP accepts the CC ruling or not, as any change to the constitution still has to be approved by HM the King, who is very unlikely to approve anything that has been rejected by the CC.

The PTP can of course decide not to accept HM the Kings authority as well, and just push ahead without HM the King's approval, but I am quite sure such a move would literally be the end of the PTP

Not literally, simply - just the end.

[hellodolly]

Pretty dumb. They should have at least waited until after the ruling. Also, what choice do they have? If they are banned, are they just going to turn up at parliament as normal and pretend the ruling never happened?

Which of course would work, but it would be a coup. Things like that happened in the past in other countries. The next step would be to put the judges in jail and form a peoples court and convict them for treason.

Of course the reds would call the banning a coup by the courts.

And it could trigger many things, coup is just one of it.

No. The wrong decision would be the decision made to ban PT MPs regardless of whether it's necessary to do so to according to the constitution or not. I'm no legal expert but I just cannot see how there is a case here according to the constitution. Perhaps someone else knows more than I do and can explain it. Let's go back to the 2008 decision in which PPP executives were banned and the party was dissolved. A lot of people at the time called that into question, and Constitutional Court President Wasan has since admitted it was a political decision. Of course, the way it was rushed through and coincided with 'Operation Hiroshima' was suspicious. But still, I thought it is true that the evidence is clear that a PPP executive broke election law by taking some village heads for an excursion in Bangkok with pocket money and other sundry hospitalities thrown in. And on that basis, I can see why PPP was disbanded. It makes legal sense, even though I think banning the whole party and all its executives for the actions of one MP is wrong and does nothing to help Thai democracy in the long run. This decision however... where is the case?

I mean I just don't see it. That's why I think PT should've held back on this one and waited for the decision. Making this move now is just pouring more fuel on the fire when it'd be better to step back and do some deep breathing exercises until the verdict is in. Sometimes the best thing to do is nothing.

Well I agree with what yo said except one point. It was

"I think banning the whole party and all its executives for the actions of one MP is wrong"

It was not just the actions of one Person it was also the party approval and financing of it.

As far as I am concerned they should have a coup the Army take control and call for elections, Elections that they would closely monitor and punish any one trying to buy a vote in addition to not letting them run.

Harsh but until some thing is done about the vote buying we will continue to see the people with the money winning elections over much more poorer but far more qualified people.

Two elections run with that kind of a stiff monitoring will see a new and bright Thailand.

Going to happen I think not. Would it be for the betterment of Thailand. Yes no doubt about it

sorry but had to delete some things

Edited November 19, 2013 by hellodolly

[Robby nz]

Be careful what you all wish for.

A coup now would lead to a horrendous blood bath that would not end quickly.

The reds still have the grenade launchers hidden away (one was used in the south recently against protest leaders homes) and a considerable arsenal of other weapons and their paymaster would be only to pleased to have them use them.

Don't base your thinking on the last coup, for one now, or in the future would be nothing like it.

Thaksin now has his reds organized and they would be out in force, in all probability looking for soft targets with the armed faction avoiding direct confrontation with the army.

Be aware these soft targets could include us farang.

You all saw what happened when the reds fought against the army last time, and that was only because they were no longer in Govt.

That was also only in BKK in the event of another coup it would be country wide.

[tetleythedog]

Welcome to the world of NakhornThaksin, nobody tells us what to do.

Of course.........he and his minions have always been above the law!

[Emptyset]

What!! You mean they should accept Thailand becoming a dictatorship, because thats what will happen if they achieve control of both the lower and upper houses!!

Why do you say that this is dubious and wrong case? It is not the PTP MP's using other peoples ID cards to vote for others in their absence that is in question, it is their determination to have the majority of the senator house representatives as Pheu Thai sympathisers/family members/friends of Thaksin etc: with no time limit on how long they can serve as senators. This is clearly a breach of the constitution as they are trying to eliminate having checks and balances on legislature and can pass anything they want without any opposition.

They have already made one gigantic cock-up with the amnesty bill and the underhand way in which they attempted to pass it into law and not recognising the authority of the constitutional court will be their undoing!!

Bring in the army!!

The irony is if you told someone who knew nothing about this situation that a government was accused of being dictatorial because they wanted to change the senate from half appointed to fully elected they'd surely think it absurd. Putting aside your opinions on PT for a moment; it is absurd isn't it? I don't think democracy should be limited in this way, I think it should be left to iron itself out. The one thing I'd agree with you on is that the clause which bars the family of MPs from running for the senate should be kept in place. That is a restriction of democracy, but an acceptable one at this juncture imo.

Anyway whatever you or I think about this amendment is irrelevant to whether it's a breach of the constitution. The court aren't ruling on the 'checks and balance' argument. They're ruling on Sec 68, which states: "no person shall....overthrow the democratic regime of government with the King as Head of State under this Constitution or to acquire the power to rule the country by any means which is not in accordance with the modes provided in this Constitution". The constitution clearly states the constitution can be amended, so that isn't an issue. So, leaving aside the vexed question of whether parliament is a person, the only relevant question is whether an amendment which alters composition of the senate to fully elected constitutes an attempt to overthrow the democratic regime or threatens the monarchy. As I say, it just seems absurd to me that having a fully elected senate could be interpreted as overthrowing the democratic regime...

As for your call for the army to step in to save the country from dictatorship. Well, again, another absurdity. Burning the village to save the village. If it does happen, it won't be like 2006 again. Recall what happened in Egypt earlier this year when the army stepped in to save the country from the elected 'dictator' Morsi? This is a guy who did far worse than anything this government has done. Yet the army stepping in solved nothing, it just threw the country further back into its dictatorial past and resulted in the killing of thousands of people. Be careful what you wish for.

[Emptyset]

Be careful what you all wish for.

A coup now would lead to a horrendous blood bath that would not end quickly.

The reds still have the grenade launchers hidden away (one was used in the south recently against protest leaders homes) and a considerable arsenal of other weapons and their paymaster would be only to pleased to have them use them.

Don't base your thinking on the last coup, for one now, or in the future would be nothing like it.

Thaksin now has his reds organized and they would be out in force, in all probability looking for soft targets with the armed faction avoiding direct confrontation with the army.

Be aware these soft targets could include us farang.

You all saw what happened when the reds fought against the army last time, and that was only because they were no longer in Govt.

That was also only in BKK in the event of another coup it would be country wide.

For once I agree with you (except the obviously ridiculous parts about farang 'soft targets'). It won't be like 2006. And I'd be more worried about the army slaughtering hundreds of civilians than I would about the men in black. Because that's probably what they'd have to do this time. The men in black won't last long if the army is under no constraints. Although I could see it becoming a long running insurgency with a high level of violence, depending how long it is before democracy is restored. So a coup is completely off the table at this point imo. Yet rumours still persist about a plan to install Prawit Wongsuwan - who supposedly holds the balance of power within the army - as PM. I don't buy it though, I think the army knows too much is at stake.

[Emptyset]

It was not just the actions of one Person it was also the party approval and financing of it.

As far as I am concerned they should have a coup the Army take control and call for elections, Elections that they would closely monitor and punish any one trying to buy a vote in addition to not letting them run.

Harsh but until some thing is done about the vote buying we will continue to see the people with the money winning elections over much more poorer but far more qualified people.

Two elections run with that kind of a stiff monitoring will see a new and bright Thailand.

Going to happen I think not. Would it be for the betterment of Thailand. Yes no doubt about it

sorry but had to delete some things

Financing of what? The vote on the amendment? Regards your closely monitored elections scenario, they already tried that in 2007 election. The Asian Network for Free Elections said one of the few problems with that election was the amount of soldiers present at voting centers around the country. ANFREL described them as potentially intimidating IIRC.

PPP still won that election, as you know, despite that. Look, even Korn doesn't believe vote buying affects the result... "If a candidate today in Loei runs under the Democrat banner for him to try to win he would need to spend two or three times more than his PPP opponent in order to win and even then he still might lose.This is exactly what happened in the last election. “A number of former TRT MPs defected to Puea Paendin and they outpsent PPP three to one and they still lost”. This goes along way to confirming what Chris said, but money is no longer determinative of your success. What Thaksin did was to make that connection and make it directly relevant to his target group. We are less afraid to compete against vote-buying than the buying of MPs. I still believe at the end of the day that if you sold your vote it is still your decision in the ballot box. However, it would be very ineffective for the Democrats to buy a Northeastern MP. Simply at the end of the day we cannot go against the will of the people and no amount of money will help."

Edited November 19, 2013 by Emptyset

[hansnl]

Abhisit gets a few brownie points for this one. He's right, how can anyone have any confidence in a government that doesn't adhere to the law. The problem is that a very large chunk of the population have very little understanding of democratic institutions, and the need for such things as constitutions.

With not accepting courts, there is no need for points anymore. That government must go away. As they don't accept the courts, maybe they won't accept the results of the next election if they don't win.

Why should they when an opposing party of swindlers cheat and buy the votes, and have village heads coerce locals into voting for red shirts. You call that an election?

There was vote buying, no doubt about it.

I guess even without the vote buying the PTP would have been the biggest party.

The majority in seats came out of the twin barrel election system, without that there would not have been a majority.

The whole problem is that the government of the day is a one issue government.

The issue of getting the man from Dubai scotfree back in Thailand.

All other things are not important at all.

Or do I overlook the moves to open up a lot of funds?

[billd766]

No you are wrong. If the constitution makes it necessary to ban them than they must be banned. If not than not.

It is about right and wrong, it isn't a popularity contest.

And if the court must ban all the government every 2 years than so it is. Actually the law should be much stronger and MPs should be banned much easier.

Yes, it should be about right and wrong. It should be based entirely on what the constitution dictates with no other factors involved. But how does amending constitution for elected senate contravene section 68? I can't see how it does. And if I can't, don't be surprised if people who actually have something at stake resting on this decision see the decision as politicized.

They shouldn't keep banning parties, either. They should punish the individual responsible, but stop punishing the party as a whole and executives unless it can be found that they were directly involved. Make the law tougher for the individual responsible, sure. I'd say a ten year ban for starters.

Making it OK to ban an entire party for 20,000 baht or whatever it was on the one hand but when it was the Dems and the $5,000,000 illegal donation from the cement company with payments to MP's wives,relatives (all under 2 million baht so the banks couldn't report it) the court saw fit to dismiss the case on the grounds that the original submissions weren't made within the regulatory 2 weeks,that after 6 months of deliberation.

Of course we then saw the phone videos of Abhisit's man negotiating with the judges etc etc referring to PTP as IT, IT, IT.

It's like banning the president and the democrats because say a polish democrat mayor of chicago is guilty of corruption

Ah but but but the Democrats........................

[whybother]

<snip>

Of course we then saw the phone videos of Abhisit's man negotiating with the judges etc etc referring to PTP as IT, IT, IT.

It's like banning the president and the democrats because say a polish democrat mayor of chicago is guilty of corruption

I see you were caught hook, line and sinker by PTP's man organising a meeting between the Democrat and the judges, taping it, doing a runner, then coming back and becoming a PTP MP.

[northernjohn]

Be careful what you all wish for.

A coup now would lead to a horrendous blood bath that would not end quickly.

The reds still have the grenade launchers hidden away (one was used in the south recently against protest leaders homes) and a considerable arsenal of other weapons and their paymaster would be only to pleased to have them use them.

Don't base your thinking on the last coup, for one now, or in the future would be nothing like it.

Thaksin now has his reds organized and they would be out in force, in all probability looking for soft targets with the armed faction avoiding direct confrontation with the army.

Be aware these soft targets could include us farang.

You all saw what happened when the reds fought against the army last time, and that was only because they were no longer in Govt.

That was also only in BKK in the event of another coup it would be country wide.

Well you have certainly outlined a grim possibility.

I how ever don't see it happening. The red shirts have different factions in their ranks. They are all located in area's so far away that they would need transportation which would be easily spotted. When and if they arrive at their destinations they will find an army already dug in.

Add to that the fact that they know the army is not toying with them as they did in 2010 and I don't think you would find them so eager to fight. Yes the army toyed with them the casualty count could easily have been in the thousands. The truth is they probably don't have enough man power to maintain the supply line. I also believe the army would have trained snipers in other countries.

If they were dumb enough to try it I think they would be quick to surrender, Also they would be surrendering to a very irate population.

Not an expert on it but can not recall a rebellion being won by any one who had their leader out side the country. Caused a lot of problems yes but win No.

Would it be pretty? NO

Will it happen I think not.