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Aussie Dollar


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The Australian $ is now around 89.26 cents to the US $ and falling.

You are now getting about Bt 28.12 for the AU $.

The Au has dropped about 16 cents against the US in the last 12 months, which when you consider that against the Thai baht is not too bad, only a 2 Baht drop against the AU.

Baht still strong, but wont want to go down too much more.

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Our exporters want it to drop to 65 US cents - I'm pretty happy with anything between 85 and 90 US cents. The fate of the baht is a much larger discussion and the subject of several threads already in play.

We need to distinguish between the need for news editors to find enough doom to fill an hour of 'news' and the reality of the Australian economy.

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If it wasn't for the weak Thai baht we we would be in deep do do.From memory when I arrived here in Thailand,some 13 years ago, I think it was around 26 baht to the dollar and that's where its headed it would appear..

Oz as a relatively stable country has a very volatile currency but on the world stage I guess we are a minnow.

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Australia per capita is one of the richest countries in the world. BUT we are an export driven country and a high dollar means lower sales. the mining boom is NOT over but is slowing as China cant sell its crap anymore as people have enough of it already and it still works, or they too are sufferenng. How many TV's or cars or fridges do you need? These things last a few years before we replace them.

So OZ needs to reduce the dollar so we can start to sell to India where we have new trade deals happening.

At home that will make people buy more OZ made and less overseas stuff as the low dollar will make overseas purchases more expensive.

Unless ther eis a miracle in the US and European economies, our dollar will probably fall to arount 80 cents. The baht will also drop so yes I agree we will see a baht to dollar of about 26 in the coming months.

As to doom and gloom being thrown at home... rubbish! It is continued electioneering. Our debt to GDP is lower than stated.

Remember we are an EXPORT drven country whereas most are import driven.

When you take what people owe us and then take off what we owe them, our REAL DEBT to GDP stands at about 12% which is one of the lowest in the world.

It is just not in our interest right now as a nation to have a high dollar. We waste too much money on overseas aid hich only increases the need for more aid... look at the history, and the need for government support. Like paying mothers to stay at home and killing job prospects for women.

An employer has to pay 3 months first before they get a dollar back. We think we do it hard but not as tough as some.

So yes, we will have less to spend here and if that is a concern then you need to adjust for this.

I am in business and watch volatility every day with a view to the yearly outlook.

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