IF the THB keeps falling, what to invest in?

[Naam]

However the risk is that a coup or whatever may happen as well can cause the Thai bath to fall further.

fact is that the Baht strengthened considerably vs. major currencies since the 2006 coup.

That was 2006. Here are some local newspaper clips from 2014 for your consideration: Thailand, household debt rose to 80% of the countries GDP in 3rd quarter of 2013.

Roubini and Faber see bubbles everwhere : Asia's Bond Bust. According to Standard Chartered the average corporate debt - to - domestic product ratio in Asia excluding Japan was at 97% in 3rd quarter of 2013..

when have Roubini and Faber not seen bubbles everywhere?

i'm not saying that the Baht can't or won't fall further and with the lion share of my expenses denominated in THB i appreciate any further depreciation.but that does not mean i join the chorus of the wishful thinkers and wet dreamers "Thai economy and Thai Baht is doomed... 1997 ante portas!"

[FiftyTwo]

i'm not saying that the Baht can't or won't fall further and with the lion share of my expenses denominated in THB i appreciate any further depreciation.but that does not mean i join the chorus of the wishful thinkers and wet dreamers "Thai economy and Thai Baht is doomed... 1997 ante portas!"

Last year, I predicted 50 by Xmas, and was proven right (while CM was predicting 35).

I predict 60 this year as the very top.

When it hits 60, don't forget, I was the one to tell you.

Edited January 4, 2014 by FiftyTwo

[Naam]

i'm not saying that the Baht can't or won't fall further and with the lion share of my expenses denominated in THB i appreciate any further depreciation.but that does not mean i join the chorus of the wishful thinkers and wet dreamers "Thai economy and Thai Baht is doomed... 1997 ante portas!"

Last year, I predicted 50 by Xmas, and was proven right (while CM was predicting 35).

I predict 60 this year as the very top.

When it hits 60, don't forget, I was the one to tell you.

Chiang Mai and Mccw are busy to camouflage and disguise their totally wrong forecasts with a barrage of quotes from other eggsburts.

if and when Sterling hits 60 it won't be of much interest to me because i have no GBP income.

[SheungWan]

i'm not saying that the Baht can't or won't fall further and with the lion share of my expenses denominated in THB i appreciate any further depreciation.but that does not mean i join the chorus of the wishful thinkers and wet dreamers "Thai economy and Thai Baht is doomed... 1997 ante portas!"

Last year, I predicted 50 by Xmas, and was proven right (while CM was predicting 35).

I predict 60 this year as the very top.

When it hits 60, don't forget, I was the one to tell you.

Chiang Mai and Mccw are busy to camouflage and disguise their totally wrong forecasts with a barrage of quotes from other eggsburts.

if and when Sterling hits 60 it won't be of much interest to me because i have no GBP income.

Even if one does have income in sterling, the GBPTHB rate will not stand still for anybody's convenience even if it does hit 60.

[VegasVic]

GOLD - if the value of the baht goes down gold will become more expensive. However gold is still testing it's lows right now and may drop even further early January but then we should be in for another major run again.Even if the Baht would regain the 20-25% it has lost , the gold gains will by far outweigh that. But give it a year at least.

For those in doubt: Why do you think China and India are currently buying up all the gold reserves?

Indians have always bought gold, and as for the Chinese there are very few places that they can put their cash, the Chinese stock market is dicey at best and the real estate market in China is a massive bubble I feel sorry for those middle class Chinese, gold is about the only thing they can safely put their cash in, and just for the record despite the strong appetite for the yellow stuff India and China are hardly buying up all the world gold reserves. The U.S. alone has over 8X the gold that China has, and between the U.S., Germany, France, the IMF, Italy and gold shares ETF, they hold over 20 times what China holds

[VegasVic]

i'm not saying that the Baht can't or won't fall further and with the lion share of my expenses denominated in THB i appreciate any further depreciation.but that does not mean i join the chorus of the wishful thinkers and wet dreamers "Thai economy and Thai Baht is doomed... 1997 ante portas!"

Last year, I predicted 50 by Xmas, and was proven right (while CM was predicting 35).

I predict 60 this year as the very top.

When it hits 60, don't forget, I was the one to tell you.

Your prediction is a very plausible one, as the west (U.S., U.K. and E.U.) begins to raise interest rates and tighten the money supply in 2014 there will be a large amount of repatriation of investments out of Thailand and back towards those countries, so when large amounts of baht are sold the baht will weaken This trend may very well continue for many years and it is anybodys guess as to where the TB will wind up. Chinese investment may be the only saving grace for Thailand in the interim, however if China has a hiccup then all bets are off on where the TB settles

[PattayaPhom]

Beer bar always a good investment in Pattaya

Sent from my ST27a using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[i claudius]

Beer bar always a good investment in Pattaya Sent from my ST27a using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Are they ? just what i was looking to buy ,as quite a few bar owners have told me how profitable they are , would love to buy one and make a lot of money .

sent from my super computer to Thai visa.

[PattayaPhom]

My mate Harry has one and he says he makes shedloads of money and his mate Rick makes even more shedloads so must be true, better than gold anyday of the week.

Edited January 5, 2014 by PattayaPhom

[NeverSure]

There was a financial advisor on TV in Australia, Paul Clitheroe, and he had this thing about "get rich quick schemes" - looking for the one big hit like picking the winner of a horse race or betting the house on number 7 at roulette. He preferred the idea of get rich slowly.

1. As Ozyjon said, I wouldn't keep my nestegg in Thailand (or Australia) there are more tax effective juristictions around the world.
2. I would not be investing in anything in Thailand - the market is volatile (which is a good thing if you know what you are doing), but it is too small and not liquid enough for security.
3. Rather than looking for a one-off 25% move in the currency (as Fifty-Two said), I would look for something like
   1. a US share trading scenario bringing in at least 3% per month (up to 9% - autopilot or hands on, depending on your expertise and preferences), or
   2. FOREX trading at around 10% return per month (autopilot - this is not a game for amateurs to play),
   3. There are still deals to be done in American real estate at around 25% return pa for rent-to's,
   4. I can think of a land banking strategy in Australia that returns about 100%pa, but has a long term (8 - 10 year) horizon
   5. Physical gold is a reasonable store of value and useful if the world does go to hell in a handcart, people will always trade gold in times of strife, paper money migh become worthless (as has happened in the past) - I would NOT play with virtual gold, gold certificates or any such abstract form
   6. People keep talking about how the world supply of silver can't keep up with demand and how silver will boom - hasn't happened yet, but it might be worth keeping a supply of physical silver (not certificates - same reason as gold)

and as ggt said - "good luck"

"There are still deals to be done in American real estate at around 25% return pa for rent-to's,"

I have been buying American single family houses for an average of US$80,000 and renting them for $1,200 pm. When people are afraid to buy due to a recent crash, they rent. There is a very good demand for rentals.

The rental agency charges me 10% of gross rents which means if they don't keep them full they don't get paid. A good rule of thumb in the US is that all expenses will be 60% of gross rents not including a mortgage which I don't have. Expenses include some vacancy factor, insurance, taxes, projected repairs and upkeep, landscapers, property management fee, etc. That leaves $480 pm in cash flow, or almost $6k per year.

The US housing market will recover. The population increases increasing demand, and older houses are torn down to build a shopping center. Some burn down. So while demand increases, the only way supply can increase is to build, and building new right now costs a lot more than the nice used repos are selling for.

I can't see any way that there's 25% pa cash flow, but they do create an income tax break in several ways and if the value goes up that's gravy. Maybe at best 8% pa cash flow + tax breaks of maybe $3k per year in depreciation and "necessary" travel to inspect them. Of course I buy them where I'm going to be going anyway, so it just makes my trip tax deductible.

If a guy was living in Thailand and wanted to go to the US, the rentals would make his entire trip tax deductible because of course they would be his reason for the trip.

I don't know the rules or numbers in any other country.

Edited January 5, 2014 by NeverSure

[Big Pinkie]

more THAI BHT.

...one more dog and a mia noi.

Forget another dog, and make that two mia noi.

i see your dog and raise you three mia nois, err and a bitcoin miner http://thepiratebay.se/torrent/9437915/SMOS_Linux_1.2_-_Scrypt_Mining_Operating_System

[meatboy]

Beer bar always a good investment in Pattaya Sent from my ST27a using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Are they ? just what i was looking to buy ,as quite a few bar owners have told me how profitable they are , would love to buy one and make a lot of money .

sent from my super computer to Thai visa.

why not invest in bar stools.

[SheungWan]

Beer bar always a good investment in Pattaya Sent from my ST27a using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Are they ? just what i was looking to buy ,as quite a few bar owners have told me how profitable they are , would love to buy one and make a lot of money .

sent from my super computer to Thai visa.

why not invest in bar stools.

Bar stools are a product made so cheaply in China that a SME stands very little (read zero) chance of breaking into the market.

[Big Pinkie]

more THAI BHT.

...one more dog and a mia noi.

Forget another dog, and make that two mia noi.

i see your dog and raise you three mia nois, err and a bitcoin miner http://thepiratebay.se/torrent/9437915/SMOS_Linux_1.2_-_Scrypt_Mining_Operating_System

hmm looks to be a fake torrent on piratebay it has a different hash to the one at http://smos-linux.org/SMOS-Linux1.2-2GB.zip.torrent

[mmh8]

Gold is a money resting-place when markets are unstable; World market control the price, and that may go further down when interest for bond and stock holdings raise. From last peak it took some 25 years to regain the loss until early in this recent peak, which now seems to be on its way down. (I would not gamble with gold.)

The SET (stock market) is down due to the political instability so cheap bath currency and an under-priced stock market may be a good option for profit, but not without risk. (This I am doing, but only with “smaller” amounts.)

Real estate is good – in some areas very good – in long term, but difficult to hold as foreigner and not easy get out of – sell – fast.

Just holding Thai bath, eventually in bonds (Fund Book) at some 3%pa; or 3 month fixed accounts. When political stable the bath may well go up again, can be anything from 10 to 25 percent. However the risk is that a coup or whatever may happen as well can cause the Thai bath to fall further.

Always remember: Don’t gamble more than you can afford to loose (with a smile).

However the risk is that a coup or whatever may happen as well can cause the Thai bath to fall further.

fact is that the Baht strengthened considerably vs. major currencies since the 2006 coup.

are you hinting that investors should go that path?

[SheungWan]

Gold is a money resting-place when markets are unstable; World market control the price, and that may go further down when interest for bond and stock holdings raise. From last peak it took some 25 years to regain the loss until early in this recent peak, which now seems to be on its way down. (I would not gamble with gold.)

The SET (stock market) is down due to the political instability so cheap bath currency and an under-priced stock market may be a good option for profit, but not without risk. (This I am doing, but only with “smaller” amounts.)

Real estate is good – in some areas very good – in long term, but difficult to hold as foreigner and not easy get out of – sell – fast.

Just holding Thai bath, eventually in bonds (Fund Book) at some 3%pa; or 3 month fixed accounts. When political stable the bath may well go up again, can be anything from 10 to 25 percent. However the risk is that a coup or whatever may happen as well can cause the Thai bath to fall further.

Always remember: Don’t gamble more than you can afford to loose (with a smile).

However the risk is that a coup or whatever may happen as well can cause the Thai bath to fall further.

fact is that the Baht strengthened considerably vs. major currencies since the 2006 coup.

are you hinting that investors should go that path?

FDI largely discounted 2006 and 2010 events as an elongated kabuki.

[Naam]

Gold is a money resting-place when markets are unstable; World market control the price, and that may go further down when interest for bond and stock holdings raise. From last peak it took some 25 years to regain the loss until early in this recent peak, which now seems to be on its way down. (I would not gamble with gold.)

The SET (stock market) is down due to the political instability so cheap bath currency and an under-priced stock market may be a good option for profit, but not without risk. (This I am doing, but only with “smaller” amounts.)

Real estate is good – in some areas very good – in long term, but difficult to hold as foreigner and not easy get out of – sell – fast.

Just holding Thai bath, eventually in bonds (Fund Book) at some 3%pa; or 3 month fixed accounts. When political stable the bath may well go up again, can be anything from 10 to 25 percent. However the risk is that a coup or whatever may happen as well can cause the Thai bath to fall further.

Always remember: Don’t gamble more than you can afford to loose (with a smile).

However the risk is that a coup or whatever may happen as well can cause the Thai bath to fall further.

fact is that the Baht strengthened considerably vs. major currencies since the 2006 coup.

are you hinting that investors should go that path?

not hinting anything, just stating a fact.

[CraigSchuler]

YES..........................the Baht finally broke the 33= 1$.

Time to upgrade my computer!!

Keep it coming and I'll invest in a new vehicle when it gets to 40.

From the sounds of things you might be getting a pretty good deal on a used car soon......I hear they are expecting a lot of folks to default on their notes.

[Big Pinkie]

YES..........................the Baht finally broke the 33= 1$.

Time to upgrade my computer!!

Keep it coming and I'll invest in a new vehicle when it gets to 40.

From the sounds of things you might be getting a pretty good deal on a used car soon......I hear they are expecting a lot of folks to default on their notes.

computer vendors aren't the ones who are going to be short sheeted by currency swing. they know the story and will adjust accordingly.

if its anything like the street vendors where i am they have already well and truly factored in any currency depreciation. so on history of their price moves in relation to currency slides, this baht weakness look a longer term thing.

Edited January 8, 2014 by Big Pinkie