IF the THB keeps falling, what to invest in?

[jaideeguy]

IF the Bhat keeps falling and the $ goes up and assuming you can time it at or near the peak and you buy cheap Baht, then what would be the best investment for it??

Bank accounts, cash, gold, vehicles, real estate or what??

I was faced with that scenario during the '97 crash and as a tourist I didn't take advantage of it except to buy a few super discounted airline tickets.

Was there any lag time when gold could be bought cheaply??

[VocalNeal]

I am not a gambler,oops investor but gold is a world price, unless Thai banks offer interest rates better than elsewhere, etc.

Your assumption is that no one else will know it is falling.

[meatboy]

more THAI BHT.

[jaideeguy]

I remember during the '97 event that there were lots of deals to be had on the high end vehicles........Mercedes for give away prices. You're right in that the local price on gold is based on the world market, so rule out gold.

Who were the 'winners' in '97??

Edited December 30, 2013 by jaideeguy

[ExpatOilWorker]

A high end vehicle is only a good investment if you enjoy and use it.

Real estate was a good investment, but only a couple of years after 1997. Pre-'97 prices were so high and there is so much holding power here, that it took time for prices to come down. Real estate had a flat bottom from 1999-2001 and maybe even a small extra dip after 9/11 (2001).

Of course $ to baht exchange rate was best just after the '97 crash.

[meatboy]

I remember during the '97 event that there were lots of deals to be had on the high end vehicles........Mercedes for give away prices. You're right in that the local price on gold is based on the world market, so rule out gold.

Who were the 'winners' in 97

those who got 90+ for 1gbp.

i got 72 when we looked to buy in 2005 and 67 in 2007.

now they are just memories.

[rayongchelsea]

A high end vehicle is only a good investment if you enjoy and use it.

Real estate was a good investment, but only a couple of years after 1997. Pre-'97 prices were so high and there is so much holding power here, that it took time for prices to come down. Real estate had a flat bottom from 1999-2001 and maybe even a small extra dip after 9/11 (2001).

Of course $ to baht exchange rate was best just after the '97 crash.

This so true. Property prices were expensive pre 97.,people seem to think it was cheap. Comparative to the uk except for that short window it never has been and I have watched real estate being built around my condo in thonglor since 1985, and noted the prices.

I think 1998-2003 best purchase period. High exchange rates subdued purchasing power by the locals, except for a few.2004 it jumped!

[Naam]

more THAI BHT.

...one more dog and a mia noi.

[i claudius]

more THAI BHT.

...one more dog and a mia noi.

Not keen on the first and the wife is dead set on me not getting the second.

[Soutpeel]

If the political games that are currently going on keep deteriorating and the natives get really restless one would expect the THB to keep falling but one suspects in that situation the only thing of real value to invest in would be a flak jacket and AK-47 LOL

[ozyjon]

I keep all my cash off shore, i take in what i think i will need for that time i'm there usually 6 months so i don't really care if the baht goes up or down because it will balance out overall, the interest rate off shore will balance out the shortage in Thailand, if you really have to count every single baht that comes and goes i think you will problems in the future,, start saving and putting something away for a rainy day. Invest in Thailand, it's been told many times that to make a small fortune in Thailand you bring a large fortune to this country, and invest ??? in who's name,, you can't own anything in this country so why bother, YOU ARE NOT IN THE FIRST WORLD COUNTRIES HERE, did you forget where you are?

[FiftyTwo]

I keep all my cash off shore, i take in what i think i will need for that time i'm there usually 6 months so i don't really care if the baht goes up or down because it will balance out overall, the interest rate off shore will balance out the shortage in Thailand, if you really have to count every single baht that comes and goes i think you will problems in the future,, start saving and putting something away for a rainy day. Invest in Thailand, it's been told many times that to make a small fortune in Thailand you bring a large fortune to this country, and invest ??? in who's name,, you can't own anything in this country so why bother, YOU ARE NOT IN THE FIRST WORLD COUNTRIES HERE, did you forget where you are?

in the last 8 months thb has gone from 44 to 54 to the GBP.

That's 25%, not a few baht, I think many people are of the opinion that a 25% change is not penny pinching.

[F4UCorsair]

more THAI BHT.

...one more dog and a mia noi.

Forget another dog, and make that two mia noi.

[laobali]

I keep all my cash off shore, i take in what i think i will need for that time i'm there usually 6 months so i don't really care if the baht goes up or down because it will balance out overall, the interest rate off shore will balance out the shortage in Thailand, if you really have to count every single baht that comes and goes i think you will problems in the future,, start saving and putting something away for a rainy day. Invest in Thailand, it's been told many times that to make a small fortune in Thailand you bring a large fortune to this country, and invest ??? in who's name,, you can't own anything in this country so why bother, YOU ARE NOT IN THE FIRST WORLD COUNTRIES HERE, did you forget where you are?

in the last 8 months thb has gone from 44 to 54 to the GBP.

That's 25%, not a few baht, I think many people are of the opinion that a 25% change is not penny pinching.

Currency changes are usually cyclical. Keeping some in e.g. US, UK, EU, Thailand, Australia or wherever you have a personal interest is a form of hedging - even gold, silver and now bitcoins. If you're clever you can transfer, buy or sell when you see a trend.

Edited December 30, 2013 by laobali

[ExpatOilWorker]

more THAI BHT.

...one more dog and a mia noi.

Forget another dog, and make that two mia noi.

Make that twin sisters.....now that we are dreaming.

Edited December 30, 2013 by ExpatOilWorker

[ray23]

Well what do you want and can you find a motivated seller?

That probably the best you can do.

Might find some buys in Stock. But, this is Thailand you really have to be careful. I did pretty good last time there was in blood in the streets. Guys who bought stocks in that time frame are still in the black on them. Me I bouhgt a farm with the proceeds been in the RED every since

[Windy]

I keep all my cash off shore, i take in what i think i will need for that time i'm there usually 6 months so i don't really care if the baht goes up or down because it will balance out overall, the interest rate off shore will balance out the shortage in Thailand, if you really have to count every single baht that comes and goes i think you will problems in the future,, start saving and putting something away for a rainy day. Invest in Thailand, it's been told many times that to make a small fortune in Thailand you bring a large fortune to this country, and invest ??? in who's name,, you can't own anything in this country so why bother, YOU ARE NOT IN THE FIRST WORLD COUNTRIES HERE, did you forget where you are?

Bullshit

[ggt]

Take a look at precious metals...ie...gold and silver...

Go online...and read what people who have been trading in metals for years have to say...

If you decide to buy...Thailand has some reputable dealers...and some not so honest...

I think the one I have used in the past is Aurora...usually located in a shopping mall or Tesco Lotus....and so on...

Know the "spot" price of metals before you go to purchase...know that it changes moment by moment...sometimes quite a bit...

Go to "Kitco.com"...to get up to the moment prices...

You can purchase metals online...and have it stored elsewhere...or take delivery...

Good Luck...

[Naam]

Take a look at precious metals...ie...gold and silver...

Go online...and read what people who have been trading in metals for years have to say...

If you decide to buy...Thailand has some reputable dealers...and some not so honest...

I think the one I have used in the past is Aurora...usually located in a shopping mall or Tesco Lotus....and so on...

Know the "spot" price of metals before you go to purchase...know that it changes moment by moment...sometimes quite a bit...

Go to "Kitco.com"...to get up to the moment prices...

You can purchase metals online...and have it stored elsewhere...or take delivery...

Good Luck...

an excellent summary on precious metals! best of all is the last "advice" good luck

[Naam]

more THAI BHT.

...one more dog and a mia noi.

Forget another dog, and make that two mia noi.

Make that twin sisters.....now that we are dreaming.

what about mother and twin daughters?

[lucjoker]

just keep your 500 bht in your pocket.

[asiamaster]

GOLD - if the value of the baht goes down gold will become more expensive. However gold is still testing it's lows right now and may drop even further early January but then we should be in for another major run again.Even if the Baht would regain the 20-25% it has lost , the gold gains will by far outweigh that. But give it a year at least.

For those in doubt: Why do you think China and India are currently buying up all the gold reserves?

[quiuvo]

Gold. But I already spent 10,000 on my local ladies. Dam. I should have shut the zipper after 6,000.

[SheungWan]

GOLD - if the value of the baht goes down gold will become more expensive. However gold is still testing it's lows right now and may drop even further early January but then we should be in for another major run again.Even if the Baht would regain the 20-25% it has lost , the gold gains will by far outweigh that. But give it a year at least.

For those in doubt: Why do you think China and India are currently buying up all the gold reserves?

The value of the baht has gone down and the price of gold has gone down. No hedge in 2013 chaps.

But keep dreaming.........next year for sure.

[oztaurus]

There was a financial advisor on TV in Australia, Paul Clitheroe, and he had this thing about "get rich quick schemes" - looking for the one big hit like picking the winner of a horse race or betting the house on number 7 at roulette. He preferred the idea of get rich slowly.

1. As Ozyjon said, I wouldn't keep my nestegg in Thailand (or Australia) there are more tax effective juristictions around the world.
2. I would not be investing in anything in Thailand - the market is volatile (which is a good thing if you know what you are doing), but it is too small and not liquid enough for security.
3. Rather than looking for a one-off 25% move in the currency (as Fifty-Two said), I would look for something like
   1. a US share trading scenario bringing in at least 3% per month (up to 9% - autopilot or hands on, depending on your expertise and preferences), or
   2. FOREX trading at around 10% return per month (autopilot - this is not a game for amateurs to play),
   3. There are still deals to be done in American real estate at around 25% return pa for rent-to's,
   4. I can think of a land banking strategy in Australia that returns about 100%pa, but has a long term (8 - 10 year) horizon
   5. Physical gold is a reasonable store of value and useful if the world does go to hell in a handcart, people will always trade gold in times of strife, paper money migh become worthless (as has happened in the past) - I would NOT play with virtual gold, gold certificates or any such abstract form
   6. People keep talking about how the world supply of silver can't keep up with demand and how silver will boom - hasn't happened yet, but it might be worth keeping a supply of physical silver (not certificates - same reason as gold)

and as ggt said - "good luck"

[superdome]

I keep all my cash off shore, i take in what i think i will need for that time i'm there usually 6 months so i don't really care if the baht goes up or down because it will balance out overall, the interest rate off shore will balance out the shortage in Thailand, if you really have to count every single baht that comes and goes i think you will problems in the future,, start saving and putting something away for a rainy day. Invest in Thailand, it's been told many times that to make a small fortune in Thailand you bring a large fortune to this country, and invest ??? in who's name,, you can't own anything in this country so why bother, YOU ARE NOT IN THE FIRST WORLD COUNTRIES HERE, did you forget where you are?

in the last 8 months thb has gone from 44 to 54 to the GBP.

That's 25%, not a few baht, I think many people are of the opinion that a 25% change is not penny pinching.

If you hang on a bit...:97 will return....very soon

[SheungWan]

There was a financial advisor on TV in Australia, Paul Clitheroe, and he had this thing about "get rich quick schemes" - looking for the one big hit like picking the winner of a horse race or betting the house on number 7 at roulette. He preferred the idea of get rich slowly.

1. As Ozyjon said, I wouldn't keep my nestegg in Thailand (or Australia) there are more tax effective juristictions around the world.
2. I would not be investing in anything in Thailand - the market is volatile (which is a good thing if you know what you are doing), but it is too small and not liquid enough for security.
3. Rather than looking for a one-off 25% move in the currency (as Fifty-Two said), I would look for something like
   1. a US share trading scenario bringing in at least 3% per month (up to 9% - autopilot or hands on, depending on your expertise and preferences), or
   2. FOREX trading at around 10% return per month (autopilot - this is not a game for amateurs to play),
   3. There are still deals to be done in American real estate at around 25% return pa for rent-to's,
   4. I can think of a land banking strategy in Australia that returns about 100%pa, but has a long term (8 - 10 year) horizon
   5. Physical gold is a reasonable store of value and useful if the world does go to hell in a handcart, people will always trade gold in times of strife, paper money migh become worthless (as has happened in the past) - I would NOT play with virtual gold, gold certificates or any such abstract form
   6. People keep talking about how the world supply of silver can't keep up with demand and how silver will boom - hasn't happened yet, but it might be worth keeping a supply of physical silver (not certificates - same reason as gold)

and as ggt said - "good luck"

Oh no! A Partial End of the World theory! PS gold totally tanked between 1980 and 2005. Maybe you would like to tell us about the suit you purchased with gold in 1895 and which is the same price today?

[bangon04]

more THAI BHT.

...one more dog and a mia noi.

Forget another dog, and make that two mia noi.

As long as one of them looks like a dog.....

[Card]

Condos because if you don't sell them, you can still enjoy staying in them or rent them out - I have 3 and a house - all holiday homes. Choose established tourist sites like Pattaya/Phuket might be saturated but there is still a good market esp for Russians, up and coming places like Khao Yai and Nan. The latter is enjoying a bit of a boom in boutique hotels and coffee shops due to the Lao border opening up and in prep for ASEAN. There isn't even an estate agents there and no condo blocks being built - if there was, they would be snapped up big time by both Thai (investment, bolt hole in case of floods in the rest of Thailand, and to a small extent the existence of a princess's home) and farangs who are looking for about the last unspoilt Thai city to live in before it disappears for good (the locals actually stare at farangs in wonderment!). Tesco is the only supermarket of note but Big C and a multifilm complex is coming soon.

[khunPer]

Gold is a money resting-place when markets are unstable; World market control the price, and that may go further down when interest for bond and stock holdings raise. From last peak it took some 25 years to regain the loss until early in this recent peak, which now seems to be on its way down. (I would not gamble with gold.)

The SET (stock market) is down due to the political instability so cheap bath currency and an under-priced stock market may be a good option for profit, but not without risk. (This I am doing, but only with “smaller” amounts.)

Real estate is good – in some areas very good – in long term, but difficult to hold as foreigner and not easy get out of – sell – fast.

Just holding Thai bath, eventually in bonds (Fund Book) at some 3%pa; or 3 month fixed accounts. When political stable the bath may well go up again, can be anything from 10 to 25 percent. However the risk is that a coup or whatever may happen as well can cause the Thai bath to fall further.

Always remember: Don’t gamble more than you can afford to loose (with a smile).