People's uprising about to reach 'critical mass': Thai opinion

[webfact]

OVERDRIVE
People's uprising about to reach 'critical mass'
Thanong Khanthong

BANGKOK: -- Suthep Thaugsuban, the leader of the people's uprising, has set January 13 as the day for a Bangkok shutdown. The momentum is in his favour.

After more than two months of leading mass demonstrations, Suthep has his sights set on toppling Yingluck Shinawatra's caretaker government by the end of this month. Supporters from other provinces have been arriving in the capital since before New Year, joining Bangkokians in preparing for the shutdown. Whistles will be blown by the millions as the capital is shut down to force the removal of Yingluck. We are about to witness a classic people's revolution against a government that has lost all moral and political legitimacy.

To stage a people's revolution without ripping up the Constitution, the number of people on the streets does matter. And Suthep has millions from various walks of life behind him. An unprecedented number of more than a million anti-government protesters showed up on November 24. But the record was broken again on December 9 - the day Yingluck Shinawatra caved in by declaring a House dissolution. The people now want back the rights and power they had temporarily given to the government. They do not need a military coup. Unarmed and peaceful, they can reclaim sovereignty over the country from a tyrant government that has proved to be working against the interests of the people. The learning curve will be tough. But democracy will have to be earned the hard way. If the people want to change the country, they have to take action rather than praying for a miracle.

The weeks leading up to New Year saw rumours of a military coup. In Thailand, rumours are almost always proved true. It was planned to help the government, not the Suthep-led uprising. The stakes are high. If the Yingluck government were to be toppled, it would not only wipe out the political and business interests of the Shinawatras but would also upset the geopolitical interests of the US. It is an open secret that the US has already "handcuffed" the Thai government into allowing it to revive the U-tapao military base. Thailand is an important Asian ally in Washington's campaign to contain China. Oil deals in the Gulf of Thailand are also on the table, not to mention security arrangements in the South China Sea, and the Trans Pacific Partnership free-trade area. That is why the US has openly intervened in Thai affairs by calling on the people to honour the February 2 election. The international media have also been parroting this line of pseudo-democracy, which would extend the tenure of the corrupt Shinawatra regime.

If demonstrations on January 13 can achieve a "critical mass", Bangkok will be shut down for several days. Suthep has hinted that 10 or 20 days of uprising could finish off the caretaker government. This would pave the way to ending the Thaksin regime once and for all. The people plan to fall back on Article 3 of the Constitution to declare they have taken sovereign power back from Yingluck. There are strong legal and constitutional grounds for doing so: the Yingluck government lost its morality and legitimacy by introducing an amnesty bill to whitewash corruption and those with charged with serious criminal acts. It also attempted to amend the Constitution to consolidate its power over the Senate. When the Constitutional Court ruled against that amendment, the Yingluck government and members of the ruling party publicly declared they would not accept the ruling. This blatant challenge to judicial power rendered the government obsolete.

After the people invoke their sovereign power as per Article 3 of the Constitution, they will resort to the extraordinary measures afforded by Article 7 to seek royal endorsement for the appointment of an interim prime minister and government. A people's council will then be formed to lay down foundations for comprehensive reform to end corruption and set Thailand back on the path of genuine democracy. This is how events will play out in the coming weeks. Nobody knows the outcome, but the scene could turn ugly. The certainty is that Yingluck and her supporters will not relinquish power easily.


-- The Nation 2014-01-03

[jaidam]

The long awaiting uprising and eviction of clan Shinawat by the masses looks to be well underway. It took longer than I expected for them to realize that the clan are not Robin Hoods, just robbin barstewards. It will prove to be a trying few months as the old red elite and establishment is forced to step aside and the cookie jar lid is slammed shut. They will not take it easily, and lives will be lost, but in a few years time we will all look back on this period and be grateful to those that gave up their time(and even lives) to benefit democracy and the future of Thailand.

I have booked to play 18 holes at Alpine today, might as well enjoy it while we can. The stolen 1,000 rai will almost certainly be handed back to the Buddhist temple from which the clan stole it.

[angsta]

Democracy at its finest. Well done The Nation!

Why should they relinquish power just because some failed, corrupt politician who can't win an election decides they should.

February 2nd sunshine. One person one vote...get involved!

[oldthaihand99]

"After the people invoke their sovereign power as per Article 3 of the Constitution, they will resort to the extraordinary measures afforded by Article 7 to seek royal endorsement for the appointment of an interim prime minister and government."

Why not do it now. What are they waiting for. Bear in mind though that there is already "endorsement" on the February election. For "the people" to reelect the YLS Robin Hood government.

Edited January 3, 2014 by oldthaihand99

[chooka]

I thought Suthep cancelled 2014 because his demands weren't met.

[Yunla]

Nobody knows the outcome, but the scene could turn ugly

Thaksin has access to large offshore wealth and (imo) also has money backers. If he starts handing out large payments to people in the North, to mobilise and march on the capital the scene will be far worse than in 2010, because this time PTP were elected then toppled, thus making their supporters far angrier. Obviously some of their support is based on bribes and broken promises, and many PTP supporters were starting to criticise PTP in recent months, but I feel they would still be offended that their cast votes have been discounted by one man in a jogging suit and a whistle. If the money incentive to march is there, we may see a mass exodus from the North and I fear that the events of 2010 will be a picnic by comparison.

[tom21]

After more than two months of leading mass demonstrations, Suthep has his sights set on toppling Yingluck Shinawatra's caretaker government by the end of this month

let me think ????????????? that is just before the election. so he want to topple the new government after that.

[englishoak]

Lets hope it rains like a monsoon from 12 onwards

[oldthaihand99]

Nobody knows the outcome, but the scene could turn ugly

Thaksin has access to large offshore wealth and (imo) also has money backers. If he starts handing out large payments to people in the North, to mobilise and march on the capital the scene will be far worse than in 2010, because this time PTP were elected then toppled, thus making their supporters far angrier. Obviously some of their support is based on bribes and broken promises, and many PTP supporters were starting to criticise PTP in recent months, but I feel they would still be offended that their cast votes have been discounted by one man in a jogging suit and a whistle. If the money incentive to march is there, we may see a mass exodus from the North and I fear that the events of 2010 will be a picnic by comparison.

Why would TS care if BKK is shut down? Or to send a red army to the city? Eventually Suthep's gang will tire of their pointless & useless marching & go back home to their jobs, if they ever had any. Why provoke the military to "coup" YL?

As the article said YL has the support of the USA. Also China.

Edited January 3, 2014 by oldthaihand99

[Stradavarius37]

Nobody knows the outcome, but the scene could turn ugly

Thaksin has access to large offshore wealth and (imo) also has money backers. If he starts handing out large payments to people in the North, to mobilise and march on the capital the scene will be far worse than in 2010, because this time PTP were elected then toppled, thus making their supporters far angrier. Obviously some of their support is based on bribes and broken promises, and many PTP supporters were starting to criticise PTP in recent months, but I feel they would still be offended that their cast votes have been discounted by one man in a jogging suit and a whistle. If the money incentive to march is there, we may see a mass exodus from the North and I fear that the events of 2010 will be a picnic by comparison.

Why would TS care if BKK is shut down? Or to send a red army to the city? Eventually Suthep's gang will tire of their pointless & useless marching & go back home to their jobs, if they ever had any. Why provoke the military to "coup" YL?

As the article said YL has the support of the USA. Also China.

Yes, why indeed lol.

[jonclark]

Democracy at its finest. Well done The Nation!

Why should they relinquish power just because some failed, corrupt politician who can't win an election decides they should.

February 2nd sunshine. One person one vote...get involved!

The idea of 1 person 1 vote as an electoral panacea to Thailand ills is far to simplistic - both sides have been shown that with sufficient financial backing that this ideal is easily manipulated and corrupted.

And that is part of the problem, democracy or rather our western concept of democracy, for whatever multitude of reasons is a corrupted, broken system. It doesn't work here or at least not yet. Thai politicians simply have found a way to cheat the system and eventually the system fails and breaks as people get bored with the cheating and politicians who have become bigger and more important than the democratic system they claim to support, when in fact they actually run and control our democracy.

I'm not condoning Suthep but it seems there are two choices; maintain the current broken and corrupted democratic system. Or dismantle it and rebuild it and start again. And I'm sure all of us have our own views on what the possible consequences of each will be.

Maybe in 20 years Thailand will have matured enough and we will look back on the past 10 years as a period of 'growing pains for Thailand's democracy.

Edit - spelling

Edited January 3, 2014 by jonclark

[Yunla]

Why would TS care if BKK is shut down? Or to send a red army to the city? Eventually Suthep's gang will tire of their pointless & useless marching & go back home to their jobs, if they ever had any. Why provoke the military to "coup" YL?

As the article said YL has the support of the USA. Also China.

Yes the US backs Yingluck. The US also backed Thaksin. Thaksin used to work for Carlyle Group <Asia> which is a US company with involvements/alliances in many mysterious and colourful things which I certainly would not know anything about or mention here, thats for sure.

I was referring to post-coup. As you can see in my post, where I talk about the cast votes being discounted by toppling of the elected party. In a post-coup Assembly run by Suthep's FB-friendlist, and backed-up-by-the-army-or-not, it would seem that the next move by this probably self-playing automated chessmachine is to pump-up the agrarian Northern crowd and give them lots of cashola to march South. My point is that I feel they will be far more angry this time round, as they enjoyed great electoral success with the votes they cast.

Edited January 3, 2014 by Yunla

[lovetotravel]

Democracy at its finest. Well done The Nation!

Why should they relinquish power just because some failed, corrupt politician who can't win an election decides they should.

February 2nd sunshine. One person one vote...get involved!

Umm, because he has the support of the people. Did you see the pictures of the protests? It wasn't just him there standing on stage alone.

This isn't about Suthep. It's about getting the Shin clan out, more corrupt and failed politicians as you so well put it. They all need to go.

[Prbkk]

Yet another delusional, borderline hysterical piece from The Nation. Will they ever stop with the gross exaggerations, half-truths, deceit, obfuscation, manipulation? This is meant to be a newspaper with some reasonable sense of balance and proportion, even in an op-ed piece, rather than a full on rant giving a very lop-sided view of the situation. Not worth the paper its written on. God forbid that anyone would actually ever buy the rag.

[Scamper]

The reason behind this movement has really always been an emotionally charged one - the disgust over Thaksin's iron grip on the affairs of this country for his own personal gain. There is no sector of Thai society that is unaware of that, or even denies it, albeit privately. But it has become so pervasive it has essentially strangled the administration, with rampant corruption that it can no longer hold or even contain. It is just spilling out all over the place. It is collapsing from within. The people have never felt empowered to deal with the machinations of administrative power. It has mainly been a passive resignation. Passivity has been Thaksin's greatest asset. But the amnesty bill changed all that. And the people are discovering - much to their surprise - that they had the power to express themselves all along. And they are jubilant with that new-found power.

[Prbkk]

The reason behind this movement has really always been an emotionally charged one - the disgust over Thaksin's iron grip on the affairs of this country for his own personal gain. There is no sector of Thai society that is unaware of that, or even denies it, albeit privately. But it has become so pervasive it has essentially strangled the administration, with rampant corruption that it can no longer hold or even contain. It is just spilling out all over the place. It is collapsing from within. The people have never felt empowered to deal with the machinations of administrative power. It has mainly been a passive resignation. Passivity has been Thaksin's greatest asset. But the amnesty bill changed all that. And the people are discovering - much to their surprise - that they had the power to express themselves all along. And they are jubilant with that new-found power.

Strangely, the people I speak with are far from jubilant as you put it. they may not like Thaksin but they can't abide Suthep and loather what he stands for.They are enraged by being blackmailed by the minority of protesters planning to stop them going about their business.

[Nowhereman60]

Suthep accountants must be very busy, filling out payee list of protesters @ 300 baht per day, plus health and life insurance. I wonder how many come from the South and how many really come from Bangkok will be the hard core protesters and not just weekend warriors.

Edited January 3, 2014 by Nowhereman60

[Yunla]

Strangely, the people I speak with are far from jubilant as you put it. they may not like Thaksin but they can't abide Suthep and loather what he stands for.They are enraged by being blackmailed by the minority of protesters planning to stop them going about their business.

Your use of the word 'blackmailed' is an excellant choice of terminology for this situation.

Thailand's progress as a nation is also being held to ransom, by these two competing groups of kidnappers, both groups are claiming that their own criminal group is the most legitimate because they have the most hostages.

Edited January 3, 2014 by Yunla

[Briggsy]

Suthep keeps nudging the army to step up to the plate. So far, with not much to show. He will keep pushing them, mostly in private, and they will intervene at some point, either poliitically or forcefully.

[Melpomene]

The idea of 1 person 1 vote as an electoral panacea to Thailand ills is far to simplistic - both sides have been shown that with sufficient financial backing that this ideal is easily manipulated and corrupted.

And that is part of the problem, democracy or rather our western concept of democracy, for whatever multitude of reasons is a corrupted, broken system. It doesn't work here or at least not yet. Thai politicians simply have found a way to cheat the system and eventually the system fails and breaks as people get bored with the cheating and politicians who have become bigger and more important than the democratic system they claim to support, when in fact they actually run and control our democracy.

I'm not condoning Suthep but it seems there are two choices; maintain the current broken and corrupted democratic system. Or dismantle it and rebuild it and start again. And I'm sure all of us have our own views on what the possible consequences of each will be.

Maybe in 20 years Thailand will have matured enough and we will look back on the past 10 years as a period of 'growing pains for Thailand's democracy.

Edit - spelling

So what do you propose to replace democracy with ?

[theslime]

Yet another delusional, borderline hysterical piece from The Nation. Will they ever stop with the gross exaggerations, half-truths, deceit, obfuscation, manipulation? This is meant to be a newspaper with some reasonable sense of balance and proportion, even in an op-ed piece, rather than a full on rant giving a very lop-sided view of the situation. Not worth the paper its written on. God forbid that anyone would actually ever buy the rag.

I thought it was very well written, perhaps because of not finding too many truthful press stories over the decades. What by the way do find wrong with the article, it clearly notes the bullshit amnesty bill to allow convicted and pending corruption figures to be freed. also the fact that the then ruling party tried to manipulate the senate and then spat the dummy. Please again enlighten me if I,ve missed anything and I,m not talking about Tax evasion, Murder of innocents,land grabs

[Melpomene]

Democracy at its finest. Well done The Nation!

Why should they relinquish power just because some failed, corrupt politician who can't win an election decides they should.

February 2nd sunshine. One person one vote...get involved!

Umm, because he has the support of the people. Did you see the pictures of the protests? It wasn't just him there standing on stage alone.

This isn't about Suthep. It's about getting the Shin clan out, more corrupt and failed politicians as you so well put it. They all need to go.

He has the the support of the minority of people.

[h90]

Democracy at its finest. Well done The Nation!

Why should they relinquish power just because some failed, corrupt politician who can't win an election decides they should.

February 2nd sunshine. One person one vote...get involved!

We have now corrupt politicians who can't win an election so they bought it.......

[Melpomene]

Democracy at its finest. Well done The Nation!

Why should they relinquish power just because some failed, corrupt politician who can't win an election decides they should.

February 2nd sunshine. One person one vote...get involved!

We have now corrupt politicians who can't win an election so they bought it.......

It's ignorant in the extreme to think Thaksin's popularity is down to vote buying

[jonclark]

Strangely, the people I speak with are far from jubilant as you put it. they may not like Thaksin but they can't abide Suthep and loather what he stands for.They are enraged by being blackmailed by the minority of protesters planning to stop them going about their business.

Your use of the word 'blackmailed' is an excellant choice of terminology for this situation.

Thailand's progress as a nation is also being held to ransom, by these two competing groups of kidnappers, both groups are claiming that their own criminal group is the most legitimate because they have the most hostages.

So clearly the democratic system has failed. As both groups know how to cheat the system (or blackmail as aptly put).

It seems the crux is that Thai politicians don't believe in the ideology of democracy. They see it as a 'means to an ends', a power grab; a catchphrase to be wheeled out at the appropriate time to satisfy whoever maybe listening.

[JHenry]

If the uprising is so powerful, why don't they just win the elections?

[jackr]

To get the job done properly, someone in a black cape needs to hop over to Dubai.

[gerry1011]

Suthep accountants must be very busy, filling out payee list of protesters @ 300 baht per day, plus health and life insurance. I wonder how many come from the South and how many really come from Bangkok will be the hard core protesters and not just weekend warriors.

The yellow thugs are trucked from the south.

The gentle old ladies with beautiful hairstyles that The Nation likes to show in its biased articles are most probably from bangkok. These are not the warriors though...

Sent from my HTC One using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[binjalin]

Lets hope it rains like a monsoon from 12 onwards

agreed - but TVF posters would blame Thaksin for that along with Elvis not being sited yet, the Lockness Monster not appearing and why planes come down in the Burmuda Triangle

[Roadman]

A few inaccuracies like "In Thailand coup rum ours are mostly true" ... you mean the how many that one Red Pheau Thai alone was making in the first 18 months of their governance that were true?

The US TTP deals are neither here nor there as they are country not party owned. It does not matter who is governing the other country standard will be trumpeted out "We the ....... Blah blah......and look forward to working with the new / existing Thai government".

Thaksin needs to get used to the feel of Dubai Sand in his undies rubbing his nuts raw, as he is bound there for the foreseeable future. There is a swell of uprising from all ranks and sectors of Thai society against Thaksin and the Shinawatra's that suggests that momentum is swinging to Sutheps principles.

Mostly overall a good article and a fair assessment IMHO.

Thailand is going to go through some upheaval but might come out the other side better for it.