Thaksin Returns As Pm

[John K]

For you guys in the north, you have a great chance to help the democrats find a solid platform. You should ask the locals what changes the government make so that they can become more self dependant and not rely on occasional handouts. If there is no filling of the TRT void with good the chances of undesirables filling it are very high.

On another note I can’t help but continuously think of this scene from “The wizard of Oz”

First, the Witch sets the Scarecrow's straw arm on fire by jabbing it with the lighted end of her broomstick: "How about a little fire, Scarecrow?" Dorothy tosses a nearby bucket of water on his arm to extinguish the flame, also accidentally splashing and drenching the Witch's face. She shrieks piteously in horror, her cries trailing off as she slowly dissolves and melts in a memorable death scene. Her "wickedness" is reduced to a puddle of vaporous clothing in front of everyone by the application of a simple substance - water:

Oh! You cursed brat. Look what you've done. I'm melting! Melting! Oh, what a world! What a world! Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness. Oh, I'm gone, I'm gone, I'm going. Oh. Oh.

[hammered]

Hello, 'ando'. In #381, you said:

"Quality of life is a hard thing to gague as it means different things to different people."

I agree. And would add "and at different times of their lives".

No way am I starry-eyed about village life, as it is at present in Isaan.

It is not luxurious, nor mentally stimulating, nor greatly entertaining.

But it is stable and sustainable.

The point I have been making is that Thailand would be well served by making provincial life stronger through all new industrial development going elsewhere than Greater Bangkok/ Eastern Seaboard, so that there was less migration.

Villages that had some of their 'brighter' sons and daughters staying on, or coming back to them, to live as commuters to higher-paying jobs in nearby towns and cities would be better ones.

And the provinces and the country/nation would benefit.

But it can't happen without (or until there is) the political will to make it happen.

Unfortunately most industrial development generally needs to be near ports in the globalized world we live in. Probably the best the politicians could do if they had the will would be put in the infrastructure and offer tax incentives to industry willing to set up inland. There may also be a few opportunities in provinces close to the indochina highway. However, most of Thailand's industry will inevitably remain in the coastal areas.

[John K]

Who said it had to be industry. What about resorts/spas, and tourist destinations. They don’t all have to be on a beach. A good sized swimming pool could compensate for that. I suspect there are several people with money would and could find a secluded place very appealing.

However I think we are drifting a bit off topic. Perhaps another new thread would be best to continue on rural Thailand economic development proposals.

[ColPyat]

For you guys in the north, you have a great chance to help the democrats find a solid platform. You should ask the locals what changes the government make so that they can become more self dependant and not rely on occasional handouts. If there is no filling of the TRT void with good the chances of undesirables filling it are very high.

Not really. No foreigner in his right mind gets involved in local politics, especially in the provinces. This is as dirty as it can get.

Last Puyai Ban elections in the wife's village the bloke who won (fortunately - he's a good guy) had to disappear straight after the elections for a few days as there was a fair chance that he would get shot in the immediate aftermath.

I hope you are not under the impression that in the provinces the Democrats are one bit better than anybody else, they are as corrupt as the next politician.

[John K]

I was thinking of just floating some ideas. I don’t particularly care who uses them, a politician or an investor.

[hammered]

For you guys in the north, you have a great chance to help the democrats find a solid platform. You should ask the locals what changes the government make so that they can become more self dependant and not rely on occasional handouts. If there is no filling of the TRT void with good the chances of undesirables filling it are very high.

On another note I can’t help but continuously think of this scene from “The wizard of Oz”

First, the Witch sets the Scarecrow's straw arm on fire by jabbing it with the lighted end of her broomstick: "How about a little fire, Scarecrow?" Dorothy tosses a nearby bucket of water on his arm to extinguish the flame, also accidentally splashing and drenching the Witch's face. She shrieks piteously in horror, her cries trailing off as she slowly dissolves and melts in a memorable death scene. Her "wickedness" is reduced to a puddle of vaporous clothing in front of everyone by the application of a simple substance - water:

Oh! You cursed brat. Look what you've done. I'm melting! Melting! Oh, what a world! What a world! Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness. Oh, I'm gone, I'm gone, I'm going. Oh. Oh.

My wife has twice been threatened with death for campaigning against TRT and thereby annoying the local influential ones. I would not suggest foreigners get involved in politics in Thailand. It can be dangerous.

[John K]

I understand your point, however with carefully selected words like ‘campaigning for a self sufficient and self supporting community' the same results can be achieved with little or no negatives. After all it’s what everyone wants right? Thaksin appears to have been doing that to feed his pockets via corruption. It’s not so much what it is, it’s how you present it that counts. Is that not 100% Thai?

Edited June 10, 2006 by john Krukowski

[ando]

Perhaps the subject is drifting a little off topic, -- that is unless you live in Issarn where the majority of Thai voters do. We westerners tend to gravitate to the nice parts of the country. I know many here in this forum have strong ties with the country folk, but for the most part a lot of the posters here really wouldn't know what life is like for the up country Thais. Thaksin would not have risen to the position he has if he had not recognized the power of the rural vote. The future of any political party in Thailand depends very much on how they deal with the rural poor who make up the majority of voters.

In a generation or two that rural population of 50% will probably be down to 25 or 30% with a shift toward the urban poor rather than the rural poor as Colpycat has noted. This has been the trend in all of the developed countries. Unfortunately, with the price of land in the cities, the usual outcome is urban slums where a big chunk of the increased income goes to paying rent to wealthy landlords. No more bathing in the river or killing a couple of chickens when things get tough like too sick to work. Just life out on the street and survive any way you can. No more extended family to take care of you . You are on your own. Drugs and prostitution may seem like an easy out for the young ones trapped in suburban slum areas.

I dont think this is the kind of Thailand any of us want to see, but it is happening now.

What governments do now will take years to have any effect. But building infrastructure like roads into the north will encourage development in those areas. Sure there are lots of other things like water supply, electrical power and rail links. They all need to happen. The workforce is available in the north. You dont need ports next door to make industry happen. One hour on a train or truck or 12 hours on a train or truck adds only a tiny fraction to the overall cost of commodities. Its not like 100 years ago when things were dragged by horse and cart over rivers and mountains to get them to markets and ports.

Of course the easy solution for Thailand's economic prosperity is simply to ignore the north as the labour force will come south anyway. But the social consequences may be dire for the poor.

[hammered]

Perhaps the subject is drifting a little off topic, -- that is unless you live in Issarn where the majority of Thai voters do. We westerners tend to gravitate to the nice parts of the country. I know many here in this forum have strong ties with the country folk, but for the most part a lot of the posters here really wouldn't know what life is like for the up country Thais. Thaksin would not have risen to the position he has if he had not recognized the power of the rural vote. The future of any political party in Thailand depends very much on how they deal with the rural poor who make up the majority of voters.

In a generation or two that rural population of 50% will probably be down to 25 or 30% with a shift toward the urban poor rather than the rural poor as Colpycat has noted. This has been the trend in all of the developed countries. Unfortunately, with the price of land in the cities, the usual outcome is urban slums where a big chunk of the increased income goes to paying rent to wealthy landlords. No more bathing in the river or killing a couple of chickens when things get tough like too sick to work. Just life out on the street and survive any way you can. No more extended family to take care of you . You are on your own. Drugs and prostitution may seem like an easy out for the young ones trapped in suburban slum areas.

I dont think this is the kind of Thailand any of us want to see, but it is happening now.

What governments do now will take years to have any effect. But building infrastructure like roads into the north will encourage development in those areas. Sure there are lots of other things like water supply, electrical power and rail links. They all need to happen. The workforce is available in the north. You dont need ports next door to make industry happen. One hour on a train or truck or 12 hours on a train or truck adds only a tiny fraction to the overall cost of commodities. Its not like 100 years ago when things were dragged by horse and cart over rivers and mountains to get them to markets and ports.

Of course the easy solution for Thailand's economic prosperity is simply to ignore the north as the labour force will come south anyway. But the social consequences may be dire for the poor.

While the Isaan has the more seats than any other single region it doesnt have the majority of the Thai electorate. The North, The Center, Bangkok and the South combined have far more voters than just the Isaan.

However, considering how many governments have relied upon the Isaan vote to get in, it is amazing how little real investment any of these governments have made in that region. They seem to have always taken it forgranted. As the rural poor become more of an urban poor history tells us that they become more politicised. Maybe it will only be at this stage that elected governments will be either more representative or will actually pay more attention to their mass electorates.

[ColPyat]

As the rural poor become more of an urban poor history tells us that they become more politicised. Maybe it will only be at this stage that elected governments will be either more representative or will actually pay more attention to their mass electorates.

As modern history shows us, in developing nations urban poor don't become more politicised, they become only more nihilistic, and almost impossible to govern.

[Martin]

'ando' ended #398 with:

"Of course the easy solution for Thailand's economic prosperity is simply to ignore the north as the labour force will come south anyway. But the social consequences may be dire for the poor."

That is the worry. This year's solution producing the next decade's problem.

Or maybe it is the last decade's solution producing the next half-century's problem.

As to farangs getting involved in Thai politics, I have one piece of advice: "DON'T DO IT".

The furthest a farang should go, IMO, is discussion on here, and a bit of 'neutral' input within the Social Sciences circles in academia---but, even there, it would be wise to stick with those who have some overseas studies as part of their CVs, so they understand 'where you are coming from'.

[Martin]

The moderators seem to be allowing us to widen the topic out into what the returning PM, and any subsequent ones, need to get stuck in to. So I will carry on.

I agree with what has been said about the effects of industrialisation and its consequent 'urban drift' creating an urban poor.

But will all that carry on?

My feeling is that, world-wide, the last two centuries of the development of industrialisation has only been able to occur because of ever-and-ever-cheaper bulk energy supplies.

That seems to be turning now, and I feel that many things will turn with it; albeit slowly and with time lags.

So political leaderships, world wide, who lead the decision-making about what their nations should do may well be having to 'shoot at a moving target' in the economic sphere.

'hammered' points to something that has puzzled me. To win an election, Thaksin needs to win the Isaan constituencies, even though Isaan returns less MPs than the South, Centre and North.

Could it be that Isaan is the equivalent of the UK 'floating vote'?

If so, it is ironic that the Isaan people, who see the goings-on in Bangkok as pretty irrelevant to them, are so influential in setting the scene for those goings-on!!!

[Old Man River]

I hope you are not under the impression that in the provinces the Democrats are one bit better than anybody else, they are as corrupt as the next politician.

Please, let's try and stay away from generalizations. Nobody knows for sure what goes on in the provinces nationwide.

[tettyan]

Unfortunately most industrial development generally needs to be near ports in the globalized world we live in. Probably the best the politicians could do if they had the will would be put in the infrastructure and offer tax incentives to industry willing to set up inland. There may also be a few opportunities in provinces close to the indochina highway. However, most of Thailand's industry will inevitably remain in the coastal areas.

Well, you can start with building decent freight rail inland linked to Laem Chabang Port. Then build inland container ports along the lines and then allow industrial estates to sprout up nearby. This isn't exactly a new idea, there's been talk about building inland container ports linked by rail in Korat, Khon Kaen and Lop Buri for years. But the will hasn't been strong enough, and many powerful vested interests with stakes in the trucking industry (like Mr Sanoh) have been downright opposed.

If we look back at the most successful post-war industrialisation story in Asia (Japan), you'll see a very strong political committment toward spreading out the benefits of economic growth to all parts of the country. But you hardly see any of that here. There are very few visionaries in Thai politics who bother to give any credence to ideas. Love him or hate him, Thaksin's been the only one so far to articulate a vision. I don't happen to like that vision, but it's still something. What's Abhisit's vision? A grand plan to remake Thailand may be too ambitious and unrealistic, but at least show us what you'd like Thailand to look like 20-30 years from now.

[John K]

For the moment this thread has seemed to widened, but this is the calm before the storm. I suspect a cat 5 or better starting mid week.

Your points are all good, and I for one am happy to see some posts from Isaan. It is a totally different world without a doubt. I have made 4 trips in 2 years and each time I connected with the people there. They are focused on earthily topics like getting a good crop. In Bangkok the people are focused on man made topics like politics and commerce. At any rate the input is a reality check for others.

[tettyan]

'hammered' points to something that has puzzled me. To win an election, Thaksin needs to win the Isaan constituencies, even though Isaan returns less MPs than the South, Centre and North.

Could it be that Isaan is the equivalent of the UK 'floating vote'?

If so, it is ironic that the Isaan people, who see the goings-on in Bangkok as pretty irrelevant to them, are so influential in setting the scene for those goings-on!!!

ANY party that wants to have even a prayer of forming a majority government must win at least a substantial number of seats in Isaan. It may not control the majority of parliament, but with 136 of 400 constituencies, it has more than 1/3 of the vote, far more so than any other region of the country.

Isaan really isn't the "floating vote". That title properly belongs to Bangkok, whose voters are rather fickle and pretty much shift with the national mood. Any party that tries to build itself around the support of Bangkok voters (like Chamlong's Palang Dharma, or the old breakaway faction from the Dems in 1988) will find itself in a lot of trouble. Rather, Isaan (at least traditionally) votes according to patronage networks. Before Thaksin, Isaan was hardly a monolithic voting bloc, as the region is too big for a single patronage network to dominate. What Thaksin managed was to use his money and promise of a winning ticket to logroll the most important networks (including Sanoh's) into his party. He's managed to reinforce this support by building a cult of personality around himself and introducing policies that actually appeal to voters in the region. All this makes for a tough combination to beat! So Mr. Abhisit, any ideas?

[lukamar]

People here are calling Issan as the big block but it's actually the north, northeast and the northern central areas, of which Issan is a part, that form that block together because they tend to vote as a single entity because of similar problems although geographically separated.

I hope you are not under the impression that in the provinces the Democrats are one bit better than anybody else, they are as corrupt as the next politician.

This is something that is very prevalent in the North but maybe not in the city. My mother in law plays one party against the other to see what she can get out of them at every election. It's a game for her, I think, she always votes TRT and everyone knows it, but she has a bit of pull and she must be a great negotiator because last big election (prior to April2) she had one party buy her new glasses frames and another pay for the lenses to go in them.

It's not just politics that's corrupt, it's from the ground up, it's ingrained in the way a lot of Thai's think. It's like a waitress that expects a tip only in Thailand it's the immigration, the land office, the police, the politicians and everyone in between. It's the way they do business. To us it's corruption on a mass scale but to a lot of Thai's it's the way things are done. My wife thinks Thaksin is an out and out crook but would not hesitate to hand over a handful of baht to the land office to register property or give the cop at the roadblock 200Bt to avoid a 200Bt ticket... You can't just cleanup one person or one party it's going to take years to cleanup the whole country.

[ColPyat]

They are focused on earthily topics like getting a good crop. In Bangkok the people are focused on man made topics like politics and commerce. At any rate the input is a reality check for others.

I wouldn't make the mistake of romaticising the Thai coutryside.

People are no less greedy as people in the cities, and conflicts are fought out with incredible brutality. Local elections are a perfect example of this. Even at the lowest level - Puyai Ban and Or Bor Dor elections - votes are bought, and opponents not that rarely get threatened and even killed. Corruption is there at every level, money to be made with illegal logging, road and building contracts, drugs, agents for sending women in contract bonded prostitution, etc.

Once you get involed a bit deeper there your perception will change.

Edited June 10, 2006 by ColPyat

[John K]

Democrats will try to block EC bail

Will cite failure to decide on TRT abolition

By Mongkol Bangprapa

The election commissioners' failure to make a ruling on the Thai Rak Thai party could come back to haunt them, as the Democrat party will cite this in asking the Criminal Court to deny them bail in a court battle next month. The four commissioners will testify in the Criminal Court on July 3 to fight a malfeasance charge filed by Democrat secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban. They are expected to ask the court for bail citing their duty to organise local elections.

But the Democrat's strategy is to oppose the move by arguing that letting them free now could damage the case. It will cite the EC's failure to dissolve Thai Rak Thai.

''I will protest against bail by arguing that they distorted the facts and could mess up information and evidence if freed,'' he said.

Last Tuesday, the Election Commission forwarded an investigation by former Supreme Court judge Nam Yimyam to the Office of the Attorney-General. The report recommended dissolution of the party because it hired small parties to run in the April 2 poll to avoid the 20% minimum vote requirement.

But the OAG could not forward the case to the Constitution Court to dissolve the party because the election commissioners stopped short of making a decision on the matter. The OAG cannot rely only on a recommendation from the report.

Mr Suthep said it was strange for the commissioners not to hand down a ruling, when they had ordered small parties be dissolved before.

The commissioners already questioned various parties, including Thai Rak Thai deputy secretary-general and caretaker Transport Minister Pongsak Raktapongpaisal, and Thai Rak Thai deputy leader and caretaker Defence Minister Thammarak Isarangkura na Ayudhaya and his close aide Gen Trairong Intaratat.

Mr Suthep surprised Thai Rak Thai at the court's first hearing on May 29, by showing video footage of Gen Thammarak meeting small party leaders, including Chawakarn Tosawat of Pattana Chart Thai party.

Gen Thammarak said he was not the man in the closed circuit video footage, taken at the Defence Ministry.

A source in the court believed Mr Suthep's plan to protest against bail would be sufficient but still doubted its success.

[lukamar]

But the Democrat's strategy is to oppose

Ya Gotta agree with that, they will oppose everything and have for months and months. They have that opposition mentality, we are going to loose again so we might as well just oppose everything. The only thing they have been able to lead is a trail of lawyers and lawsuits to any and all agencies that will accept them.

[John K]

But the Democrat's strategy is to oppose

Ya Gotta agree with that, they will oppose everything and have for months and months. They have that opposition mentality, we are going to loose again so we might as well just oppose everything. The only thing they have been able to lead is a trail of lawyers and lawsuits to any and all agencies that will accept them.

Is that not Thaksin’s method too with any negative madia, and everyone else’s opinion? My way only!!!

[lukamar]

But the Democrat's strategy is to oppose

Ya Gotta agree with that, they will oppose everything and have for months and months. They have that opposition mentality, we are going to loose again so we might as well just oppose everything. The only thing they have been able to lead is a trail of lawyers and lawsuits to any and all agencies that will accept them.

Is that not Thaksin’s method too with any negative madia, and everyone else’s opinion? My way only!!!

There is a difference between Thaksin laying suite for defamation and the Democratic party laying suite on the EC, Thaksin, the TRT and anyone and everyone else they can think of. I used to think that the Democrats may be an alternative and that they may come into their own in a few years as a good alternative for voters but with the boycott, poor decisions, PAD coalition, no platform, constant confrontation and the continual law suits, I'm now hoping they never get in to power.

Maybe something good will come out of all this. Hopefully another new party will rise out of the TRT, the Democrats and the other parties and emerge as a viable alternative for everyone in Thailand but I'm not going to hold my breath hoping that it's leader will be abler to juggle the South, the City and the North in some kind of harmonious union. as it's not going to happen any time soon.

[John K]

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's political crisis is expected to worsen after a truce for gala festivities for the Diamond Jubilee of revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej end this week, analysts, newspapers and the opposition say.

Despite repeated calls by the world's longest serving monarch for a negotiated end to the crisis, they appear to be going unheeded in the campaign to oust Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

No one is sure how the fight to unseat Thaksin, winner of elections by landslides but accused of hijacking institutions meant to be independent to consolidate power in his own hand, will end.

The scenarios range from an eventual re-run of an April 2 snap general election that was boycotted by the main opposition parties and later declared unlawful, to military intervention in the coup-prone nation.

"There are a lot of unsolved and unresolved issues in the political arena and this temporary truce should not be taken as an indication that things have quieted down," said Christopher Bruton of Bangkok-based Dataconsult.

The Matichon newspaper said in an editorial on Sunday that the Jubilee truce would recharge both sides.

"A break doesn't mean an end, but a return of fight."

The two main immediate issues are the fates of the Election Commission and Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thais) party.

The three remaining election commissioners, accused of favoring the Thai Rak Thai, is resisting heavy pressure to quit.

Thai Rak Thai, accused of bankrolling small parties to run in uncontested seats to avoid the need to get 20 percent of the eligible vote to claim victory on a one-candidate constituency, faces disbandment if found guilty.

Thailand's top judges, summoned by King Bhumibol and told to sort out the mess in late April, have called on the election commissioners to quit. It was not neutral, they said.

The commissioners deny any wrongdoing in a snap election Thaksin called to counter a months-long campaign of street demonstrations against him.

They face a series of court cases against them and there is much doubt whether the election re-run can be held as scheduled on October 15 in a country left with a caretaker government unable to take major economic decisions in difficult times.

"Everything is still fluid and we still don't know what will happen to the current Election Commission," opposition Democrat Party spokesman Thepthai Sanepong said.

Only one thing is sure -- street demonstrations for and against Thaksin, whose party backs the commissioners, will resume after the Jubilee.

"Should they stubbornly hold on to power after the royal anniversary, we will organize mass rallies to kick them out," said Suriyasai Katasila of the People's Alliance for Democracy, the group leading the street campaign against Thaksin.

Last month, the Election Commission investigation panel said two Thai Rak Thai leaders financed two fringe parties' runs in April.

The team recommended the Election Commissioners investigate further, but instead forwarded its report to the Attorney General Office's for a decision. The office said the commission should decide.

Analysts said the deadlock showed nobody was listening to anybody else and even the courts, mandated by the king, did not have the legal powers to act promptly.

Rumors of a military intervention emerged in the past week.

"It seems that there is no way out by legal means in this crisis and I've heard soldiers would like to break the deadlock," said a political scientist who also advises a politician in Thai Rak Thai and asked not to be named.

Matichon urged the three commissioners to quit to avoid "the worse nightmare that nobody wants it to happen" from happening.

[lukamar]

Despite repeated calls by the world's longest serving monarch for a negotiated end to the crisis, they appear to be going unheeded in the campaign to oust Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Analysts said the deadlock showed nobody was listening to anybody else and even the courts, mandated by the king, did not have the legal powers to act promptly.

Rumors of a military intervention emerged in the past week.

Food for thought...

[John K]

A good point. Post #2 of this thread seems to be matching events.

I was also thinking that the case the democrats brought on the EC sets up a catch 22 for the EC.

They did not rule on the TRT when they should have and sent it to the Atty. General (OAC).

The courts said that they are not capable of ruling.

If you look at that both point to problems for the EC and TRT. It some how puts a dent in the paradox. But now Thaksin’s behind the scenes string pulling are starting to show and his plan is becoming more obvious.

EC pass the responsibility to another.

The OAC will take time to investgate.

Cause infighting between various government bodies.

Flood the courts with loads of work thus pushing out the court dates. I suspect they must address them in chronological order.

All designed to slow or stop the end of the TRT, and to add to the illusion that the TRT is the only sound and solid entity in the Thai government.

I think this whole thing is starting to look like a Demolition Derby. All contestants are getting banged up and dented but are still sputtering around.

It also appears Thaksin does not care how trashed dented and banged up Thailand gets as long as he wins.

[jdinasia]

The three remaining election commissioners, accused of favoring the Thai Rak Thai, is resisting heavy pressure to quit.

Thai Rak Thai, accused of bankrolling small parties to run in uncontested seats to avoid the need to get 20 percent of the eligible vote to claim victory on a one-candidate constituency, faces disbandment if found guilty.

Thailand's top judges, summoned by King Bhumibol and told to sort out the mess in late April, have called on the election commissioners to quit. It was not neutral, they said.

The commissioners deny any wrongdoing in a snap election Thaksin called to counter a months-long campaign of street demonstrations against him.

They face a series of court cases against them and there is much doubt whether the election re-run can be held as scheduled on October 15 in a country left with a caretaker government unable to take major economic decisions in difficult times.

"Everything is still fluid and we still don't know what will happen to the current Election Commission," opposition Democrat Party spokesman Thepthai Sanepong said.

Last month, the Election Commission investigation panel said two Thai Rak Thai leaders financed two fringe parties' runs in April.

The team recommended the Election Commissioners investigate further, but instead forwarded its report to the Attorney General Office's for a decision. The office said the commission should decide.

Despite repeated calls by the world's longest serving monarch for a negotiated end to the crisis, they appear to be going unheeded in the campaign to oust Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Analysts said the deadlock showed nobody was listening to anybody else and even the courts, mandated by the king, did not have the legal powers to act promptly.

Rumors of a military intervention emerged in the past week.

Food for thought...

Rumors circulate often ... and mean little ....

However Luk seems to have missed out on all the rest of the hi-lighted sections above.

If Luk counted the lawsuits out there ... I think he'd find that Dr T and TRT have as filed as many as the TOTAL laid against them ... not to mention the fact that they used lawsuits throughout the last 5+ years as a constant form of intimidation against their opponents and people that spoke out against them.

[ando]

"Should they stubbornly hold on to power after the royal anniversary, we will organize mass rallies to kick them out," said Suriyasai Katasila of the People's Alliance for Democracy, the group leading the street campaign against Thaksin.

Surely this is just a bit of chest beating by PAD.

If they were to resume demonstrations while matters were before the courts it could be seen as little more than an attempt to intimidate the courts into bringing down decisions in line with PADs political ideals.

Now that would really give the generals a sound excuse to step in.

We have the Democrats working on the strategy that if they cant get into power at the ballot box they will do it through the courts and now we have the PAD saying they will protest in the streets while things are before the courts.

[ando]

Rumors circulate often ... and mean little ....

Over 50% of the countries voters stand to be potentially stripped of political representation. And some of the most powerful people in the country with links into the military are potentially about to be stripped of political power. Future elections uncertain. Pressure groups threatening mass demonstrations in the streets. All this in a country that has a long and recent history of military coups.

I wonder what odds a bookie would give re the possibility of the military stepping in temporarily?

Right at the moment I would give it something like 2:1 in the next 3 months. But things can change very quickly.

[John K]

One of the thing Thaksin has done is change laws to favor himself. He always says what he does is legal. I think the Shin transaction is one of them. To be honest this is getting to be so absurd it baffles the mind.

1) Thaksin is not even trying to hide what he does anymore.

2) Thaksin openly misrepresents facts that are common knowledge.

3) Thaksin’s actions are now openly obvious self serving and not Thailand serving.

At one point he said if the King asked him to step down he would do so and lay prostate at his feet. At this point I personally doubt he would. By doing so almost insures jail time for him and a significant change in financial status.

The PAD rallies were peaceful even with TRT trying to start a fight. I think they would only add psychological pressure to Thaksin at this point. Also now this is the wet season and getting caught in a monsoon downpour does not make for good moods. Perhaps that was part of Thaksin’s plan when he appeared to step down. At the moment the courts are trying to get the key issues in front of them but Thaksin keeps slowing that process. It’s like the typical scene on tv or in a movie when one car is trying to run the other off the road before it gets to the courts.

The situation is becoming dangerous now because for Thaksin now this is not only for political power, but for his freedom and money too. For him it is a fight or flight situation for post politics survival. I would not be surprised to hear of an assassination of some official dealing with this in coming days.

If your visa is up in the next 2 weeks, I think now would be a good time to do a visa run. The borders may be closed.

[ColPyat]

For him it is a fight or flight situation for post politics survival.

And so it is for the PAD leadership.