Thaksin Returns As Pm

[sriracha john]

Yes, I understand the TRT government is broke...and can't afford the mega-projects... and that Thaksin dissolving Parliament was the beginning of all this political turmoil.

That gold closed way down or that the SET lost a whopping 3% today or etc. etc. are all side issues as these things fluctuate up and down, often quite rapidly and wildly in regards to Thailand, all the time.

[bkkjosh]

Yes, I understand the TRT government is broke...and can't afford the mega-projects... and that Thaksin dissolving Parliament was the beginning of all this political turmoil.

That gold closed way down or that the SET lost a whopping 3% today or etc. etc. are all side issues as these things fluctuate up and down, often quite rapidly and wildly in regards to Thailand, all the time.

I'm talking about the world price of gold. The thai price follows the NY spot and London spot markets closely. Side issues. The only piece of supporting evidence you have to support your "tout" is a newspaper article.

Gold doesn't fluctuate in thailand "wildly" its only driving factor is the world price of gold and the value of the US Dollar. So even after explaining it to you, you still don't understand it.

Good Luck

[Jai Dee]

Doubts accompany PM’s reappearance

Caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra waves outside Government House before meeting intelligence officials to discuss the southern insurgency.

Caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra officially returned to work at Government House yesterday with typical fanfare after shunning his official duties for more than a month.

However, Thaksin’s return also brought criticism from political observers, who accuse him of “toying” with the electorate.

After leaving the country to second guess just who was running the country, the CEO-style premier arrived back at work to preside over “formal” business. However, he continued to shun the media, which he has done since going into self-imposed exile.

As on previous occasions, more than 100 supporters were waiting in front of the Government House gates as Thaksin arrived. They cheered and threw flowers and urged the embattled premier to stay on as leader.

Thaksin first met with top security officials, including caretaker Deputy Prime Minister Chitchai Wannasathit who stepped in for Thaksin while the PM was away, to discuss the southern insurgency and the brutal attacks on two female teachers, one of whom remains in a grave condition, said Chitchai. The deputy PM added that Thaksin talked about changing government policies in the South in the face of evolving insurgency tactics.

After concluding the security meeting, Thaksin summoned the caretaker finance and commerce minister and top officials from the National Economic and Social Development Board to discuss the economic threat posed by rising energy costs.

Caretaker Interior Minister ACM Kongsak Wanthana also held talks with Thaksin yesterday. ACM Kongsak was full of praise for Thaksin, and described his return as a breath of fresh air.

“It is a very appropriate thing,” ACM Kongsak said.

“And it does not go against his promise because the prime minister stated that he will step down after the election is over.”

To round off a hectic first day back at the helm of the caretaker government, Thaksin hosted a dinner meeting with a number of ministers, including ACM Kongsak and the chief government adviser on narcotics, Wan Mohammad Nor Matha, to find ways to crack down on the country’s growing drug problems.

According to Government Spokesman Surapong Suebwonglee, several compelling matters demanded Thaksin’s immediate return.

“The country needs a capable leader when faced with grave circumstances, such as the southern violence, economic woes and the resurgent drug [problem], especially at a time when the new election might be more than half a year away,” said Surapong.

Defending Thaksin from his critics, Surapong said the premier had not gone back on his word by returning to office.

“The prime minister informed the Cabinet on April 5 that he will be taking a holiday and that Deputy Prime Minister Chitchai will be acting [premier],” said Surapong. “The prime minister stated that he will return to work when the situation demands it, and now is that time.”

Although figures in authority are warmly greeting Thaksin’s return, critics did little to hide their contempt for the prime minister.

Surat Horachaikul, a political lecturer at Chulalongkorn University, said that Thaksin’s month-long absence from the political scene and his reasons for returning were merely ruses to ensure he maintained his grip on power.

“They [Thai Rak Thai] know all the political tricks in the book and are adept at creating illusions because they have had five years’ practice,” Surat told ThaiDay yesterday.

“So now, when there are economic problems or southern problems it plays [into their hands],” he said.

“That’s why they are trying to claim that Thaksin needs to come back to solve the country’s problems. How can a democracy that claims to be developing have a government that relies upon just one person?”

Former prime minister Chuan Leekpai, who is now chief adviser to the Democrat party, said Thaksin’s actions demonstrate little respect for the country.

“I do not understand what Thaksin is trying to do,” Chuan said. “He is toying with the country.”

However, another former prime minister, Banharn Silapa-archa, who is now leader of the Chart Thai party, said that he had urged Thaksin to come back to work because everyone in the caretaker government is useless without him.

“Thaksin should come back to oversee the leadership of the country and look at ways of steering the country away from various problems,” Banharn said. “But this is only temporary. After the new election is complete he can either take a political break or resign.”

Surat said it was an open secret that Thaksin has been plotting to return to power, despite publicly claiming otherwise.

“He told his Thai Rak Thai party members to push policies that struck a chord with the rural folk, such as drug eradication,” he said.

“He was just bidding his time until resistance from the informed middle classes had waned.”

According to Surat, the reason Thaksin has not named a successor – despite vowing not to lead the next government – is because he intends to go back on his word.

“He can abandon his pledge to step down from politics after the election because now he can claim that they need him.”

Source: ThaiDay - 23 May 2006

[tettyan]

I'm talking about the world price of gold. The thai price follows the NY spot and London spot markets closely. Side issues. The only piece of supporting evidence you have to support your "tout" is a newspaper article.

Gold doesn't fluctuate in thailand "wildly" its only driving factor is the world price of gold and the value of the US Dollar. So even after explaining it to you, you still don't understand it.

Good Luck

We are talking about the government's capacity to implement the mega-projects, which was already in doubt long before the recent political crisis. In that context, your digression into the price of gold, while informative, is tangentially related to this subject at best, and off topic at worst.

BTW - Did you ever get around to reading the link I sent you?

Edited May 23, 2006 by tettyan

[stumonster]

According to Government Spokesman Surapong Suebwonglee, several compelling matters demanded Thaksin’s immediate return.

I think its because there is no-one who is not scared to make a descision - worried about the repecussions politically if they do - not whether the decision is correct - Not that I would expect a decision out of any of them that would be considered correct from the perspective of the good of the country.

[tettyan]

I stated facts. Fact is, money will flow out of thailand if there is no PM for the next 5 months. Fact is, Thailand has enough economical issues as it is. Do you watch the stock market? Have you seen oil prices? Did you notice the huge spike in world commodities prices? Platinum came off record highs last week, silver came very close, and gold is expected to as well break its all time high of $875/oz before the end of the year. The strong thai baht? Highest levels in 4yrs?? Do you understand what factors like these do to 3rd world countries who are in fact wanting to spend US$44BN on "mega-projects". Do you know that Iron Ore contracts for this year have been secured at a 19% increase on last year? Do you understand what effect that would have on such a large scale construction? Snap elections and political turmoil. Do you actually understand the workings of these things? Please take a moment to think before you post again, show me you actually think.

Well, the fact is that the stockmarket rallied in March every time rumours about Thaksin's resignation came up. And the market rallied again after he announced his "break" from politics in April. The oil price is a problem worldwide and has little to do with whether Thaksin is in power or not (unless they want to bring back oil subsidies, which was always a stupid idea anyway). The strong baht does put some pressure on the balance of payments, but on the other hand, it allows the government to pay less for imported equipment needed for the mega-projects than otherwise. In any event, the trade surplus continued to grow smartly during the first several months of this year, in spite of the political crisis.

In the end, the fundamentals matter more than short-term political manuevering. Yes, if the election is delayed until October or Novermber, dragging on the political stalemate, then it could have an impact. But it's not the opposition that's causing this - the EC and TRT are at the forefront when it comes to scheduling the next election.

Every side has done their part in contributing to the current mess, but we musn't obscure Thaksin's responsibility. If he truly had the interests of the country at heart, he would have resigned unequvocally (as opposed to taking an ambiguously defined "break") and designated a successor, who would be tasked with calling a new election, in which Thaksin would not stand as a candidate as PM.

[penzman]

The circus has rolled into town again, same show, high-wire act and clowns only.

[robint]

Well Gents

Its all very well to bleat about Mr T enriching himself blah blah. That has been going on for the last 20 years of my experience here. Can you point to a credible opposition and what they are going to do to stop these practices. You might well get a new young charismatic PM like Khun Abhisit but he would need the support of all the OLD establishment cronies and all their long standing corruptt habits. So you may exchange one set of bandits for anothter.

Please propose how this new utopian government will be formed in the LOS?

You may feel biutter about Mr T in BKK but up country where I live the people in my area are delighted with what he has done for them, actually in real tterms. To quote my wife, she says tthat no government previously has ever given a ###### about the people in the north east, nor help to stabilise tthe price of paddy rice so farmers can make a modest living. He has helped farmers get out of crippling debtt from money lenders by setting up the rural village 1M baht funding scheme. Somewhat controvertially he has eliminated local drug dealers (including some policementt) who were poisoning the school kids with pills. He has spents on road improvements, irrigation and school equipment. So in my area, rightly or wrongly they are 100% behind him and believe he has been victimised by the BKK elite (fat cats who have had their fingers chopped off and dont get to feed at the trough like tthey used to.

Well thats a local opinion that may represent the feeling of the north east (though i dont guarantee its the whole picture).

What we do need for the future of the country is strong financial leadership and despite all the adverse publicity LOS is in a strong posittion with 60B USD of foreign reserves - unprecendented.

I am not advocating the position of Mr T but his CEO style worked up country. Sadly it has failed miserably down south. The truth is that Mr T is no more able to control his currupt cronies than anyone else and if he kicks too many shins then he is as much mortal as anyone else. Conflicts of business are often cited as the reason for unexplained shootings. This is the Wild East.

So lets not get too pompous and sanctimonious - Flangs. You are only here as guests. And things will never change towards us. If you dont like it then **** off. That will always be the reponse.

In a baht bus the other day, a old age pensioner flang was complaining about the dual pricing. Why should he have to pay 10 baht when a thai pays 5 baht. He shouted at her that in the UL everyone pays the same price (which of course would be hideously expensive for a thai). His thai lady speaking in lao to her compatriates complained that the flang was stingy. Why shouldnt he pay 10 baht, He is a Flang and they have big money.

That opinion will never change. Lets face it, they see us as ugly stingy millionaires. Give us your money Flang and when its finished, go away.

[ando]

If he truly had the interests of the country at heart, he would have resigned unequvocally (as opposed to taking an ambiguously defined "break") and designated a successor, who would be tasked with calling a new election, in which Thaksin would not stand as a candidate as PM.

Why should the democratily elected leader resign because of a minority protest movement? Sondhi managed to rally less than 0.2% of total voters in the city stronghold of the opposition. Where is Sondhi now? Why isn't he and his supporters calling for total anarchy? The reason is because everyone knows the nation needs some leadership in the lead up to the next election.

Thaksin proved that he still has the overwhelming support of the majority of voters in the now annulled April election. If he is to be kicked out of office it should be done through legitimate means rather than through street protests by a very small minority of voters in Bangkok.

I an not trying to defend any of the corruption claims against Thaksin, however I do believe the most basic principles of democracy need to prevail in this crisis. Otherwise, we may as well go back to coups and counter coups as a means of gaining government in Thailand.

Personally, I am glad to see this saga playing out the way it is. Amid all the vexatious law suits there is bound to be some where the ultimate ruling will help to shape the future in a positive way.

Thaksin is under immense pressure for sure, but he is playing things as well as anyone could with the best interests of the country at heart. Thaksin is the care taker Prime Minister of the country at the moment and the country needs leadership at the moment. The people of Thailand can decide who will lead the country in a few months when all the dirty linen is fully aired and the courts have had their say, but right now the country needs some leadership and stability.

[Plus]

If Thaksin resumes PMship after the elections we'll be back to square 1 - February.

Thaksin is under immense pressure for sure, but he is playing things as well as anyone could with the best interests of the country at heart.

That's too much credit to him.

Where is Sondhi now? Why isn't he and his supporters calling for total anarchy?

Why should they? Any particular reason why you think they could?

You could further ask "Why isn't he asking to boil babies in hot oil?" and then answer yoruself.

[bkkjosh]

I'm talking about the world price of gold. The thai price follows the NY spot and London spot markets closely. Side issues. The only piece of supporting evidence you have to support your "tout" is a newspaper article.

Gold doesn't fluctuate in thailand "wildly" its only driving factor is the world price of gold and the value of the US Dollar. So even after explaining it to you, you still don't understand it.

Good Luck

We are talking about the government's capacity to implement the mega-projects, which was already in doubt long before the recent political crisis. In that context, your digression into the price of gold, while informative, is tangentially related to this subject at best, and off topic at worst.

BTW - Did you ever get around to reading the link I sent you?

Yes I've read your link, another form of thai mass media. Thanks for that.

I didn't digress at all. I listed a variety of reasons as to why the projects could have delayed, I was mis-quoted and I rectified that.

Quite obviously the policitical crisis in Thailand is the #1 reason.

Your speculation is boring.

[bkkjosh]

I stated facts. Fact is, money will flow out of thailand if there is no PM for the next 5 months. Fact is, Thailand has enough economical issues as it is. Do you watch the stock market? Have you seen oil prices? Did you notice the huge spike in world commodities prices? Platinum came off record highs last week, silver came very close, and gold is expected to as well break its all time high of $875/oz before the end of the year. The strong thai baht? Highest levels in 4yrs?? Do you understand what factors like these do to 3rd world countries who are in fact wanting to spend US$44BN on "mega-projects". Do you know that Iron Ore contracts for this year have been secured at a 19% increase on last year? Do you understand what effect that would have on such a large scale construction? Snap elections and political turmoil. Do you actually understand the workings of these things? Please take a moment to think before you post again, show me you actually think.

Well, the fact is that the stockmarket rallied in March every time rumours about Thaksin's resignation came up. And the market rallied again after he announced his "break" from politics in April. The oil price is a problem worldwide and has little to do with whether Thaksin is in power or not (unless they want to bring back oil subsidies, which was always a stupid idea anyway). The strong baht does put some pressure on the balance of payments, but on the other hand, it allows the government to pay less for imported equipment needed for the mega-projects than otherwise. In any event, the trade surplus continued to grow smartly during the first several months of this year, in spite of the political crisis.

In the end, the fundamentals matter more than short-term political manuevering. Yes, if the election is delayed until October or Novermber, dragging on the political stalemate, then it could have an impact. But it's not the opposition that's causing this - the EC and TRT are at the forefront when it comes to scheduling the next election.

Every side has done their part in contributing to the current mess, but we musn't obscure Thaksin's responsibility. If he truly had the interests of the country at heart, he would have resigned unequvocally (as opposed to taking an ambiguously defined "break") and designated a successor, who would be tasked with calling a new election, in which Thaksin would not stand as a candidate as PM.

Which fundamentals are these? Socio-economic fundamentals? Political fundamentals? Please elaborate...

[stumonster]

Well Gents

Its all very well to bleat about Mr T enriching himself blah blah. That has been going on for the last 20 years of my experience here. Can you point to a credible opposition and what they are going to do to stop these practices. You might well get a new young charismatic PM like Khun Abhisit but he would need the support of all the OLD establishment cronies and all their long standing corruptt habits. So you may exchange one set of bandits for anothter.

except the country is in a position to prosecute a top dog . most people are aware that he sold ( yes he , not his kids ) his stake in his company and then did not pay any tax . He needs to be torn to shreds , along with the rest of the clan , and afterwards thay can start working down and removing the apparatus he has put in place . I am sure if they start putting a few of these elite individuals in jail and doing some severe asset stripping if will make sure less people will be willing to overstep the boundries of corruption. mr 't' and his clan have done alot of very dodgy deals since he came to power - the country needs to start the ball rolling .

The courts ruling that the election was invalid and the EC should resign , maybe an indication that they have put some lead into their pencils - although we do know whose directive they were following , but if the momentum can be kept up and they can see they can get away with going against the wishes of the reigning poo yai - maybe some real results will be forthcoming - all this carring on about maintaining the staus quo because its gives the country stability is just sweeping the real problem under the carpet.

[Plus]

Its all very well to bleat about Mr T enriching himself blah blah. That has been going on for the last 20 years of my experience here. Can you point to a credible opposition and what they are going to do to stop these practices. You might well get a new young charismatic PM like Khun Abhisit but he would need the support of all the OLD establishment cronies and all their long standing corruptt habits. So you may exchange one set of bandits for anothter.

Robint, this has been discussed to death here already. You should have addressed this issue two months ago, preferrably at PAD rallies. That's where political changes were made, not here on TV. You should have told those hundreds of thousands of people that nothing ever changes in Thailand so why try at all.

So lets not get too pompous and sanctimonious - Flangs. You are only here as guests. And things will never change towards us. If you dont like it then **** off. That will always be the reponse.

Have you ever seen what people usually reply to this argument? There should be a FAQ section for claims like this.

The only interesting part is why you spell farang as flang.

[ando]

Well Gents

Its all very well to bleat about Mr T enriching himself blah blah. That has been going on for the last 20 years of my experience here. Can you point to a credible opposition and what they are going to do to stop these practices. You might well get a new young charismatic PM like Khun Abhisit but he would need the support of all the OLD establishment cronies and all their long standing corruptt habits. So you may exchange one set of bandits for anothter.

except the country is in a position to prosecute a top dog . most people are aware that he sold ( yes he , not his kids ) his stake in his company and then did not pay any tax . He needs to be torn to shreds , along with the rest of the clan , and afterwards thay can start working down and removing the apparatus he has put in place . I am sure if they start putting a few of these elite individuals in jail and doing some severe asset stripping if will make sure less people will be willing to overstep the boundries of corruption. mr 't' and his clan have done alot of very dodgy deals since he came to power - the country needs to start the ball rolling .

The courts ruling that the election was invalid and the EC should resign , maybe an indication that they have put some lead into their pencils - although we do know whose directive they were following , but if the momentum can be kept up and they can see they can get away with going against the wishes of the reigning poo yai - maybe some real results will be forthcoming - all this carring on about maintaining the staus quo because its gives the country stability is just sweeping the real problem under the carpet.

Yes The courts did rule that the April election was invalid.

And yes, Thaskin should be removed if it can be proved he broke the law.

But what exactly is a court ruling that the EC SHOULD resign? Its little more than a personal opinion of a few individuals if the court cant enforce it. The courts have been entrusted with getting the country on track. They should be making some rock hard decisions now instead of putting out politically divisive opinions. The country is in crisis. The courts are the only power to bring about some sensible decision and what do they do?-- They start playing politics. Time they got some balls and started making some tough decisions.

[tettyan]

If he truly had the interests of the country at heart, he would have resigned unequvocally (as opposed to taking an ambiguously defined "break") and designated a successor, who would be tasked with calling a new election, in which Thaksin would not stand as a candidate as PM.

Why should the democratily elected leader resign because of a minority protest movement? Sondhi managed to rally less than 0.2% of total voters in the city stronghold of the opposition. Where is Sondhi now? Why isn't he and his supporters calling for total anarchy? The reason is because everyone knows the nation needs some leadership in the lead up to the next election.

I am not suggesting that Thaksin resign just because of a minority protest movement (of which I am NOT a huge fan). I think Thaksin should have resigned to take personal responsibility for his ethical lapses and unanswered questions surrounding the Shin sale (just as Japanese PM Takeshita Noboru did in 1989 for a scandal in which he was never criminally charged). For the sake of the country, that would have been best. Instead, every single maneuver he made since February has been first and foremost for the sake of clinging to power.

Thaksin is under immense pressure for sure, but he is playing things as well as anyone could with the best interests of the country at heart.

That's an awfully generous characterisation. If he really wanted to avoid controversy, he should have formally resigned, handed power to a popular successor like Somkid or Chaturon (before the whole O-Net/A-Net disaster happened) and retreated behind the scenes at least for the time-being. The Sondhi movement would have been largely defused, and an election that accentuated Thailand's class and regional divisions would not have been necessary. Of course, I'm probably dreaming again, since nothing in Thailand happens the way it's supposed to. Because if it did, Thaksin really would genuinely have the country's interests at heart.

Edited May 23, 2006 by tettyan

[tettyan]

Which fundamentals are these? Socio-economic fundamentals? Political fundamentals? Please elaborate...

Economic mostly. Political to some extent as well - in the sense that contrary to many predictions, there was no outbreak of violence on the streets and no coup. The way it looks now, the country is on its way to resolving this crisis before the end of the year. When considering "political stability", that the system remains stable is more important than whether the same government keeps getting re-elected, or the same faces stick around. So in spite of unease that the events of the past few months may have caused, in the end, it has shown that the SYSTEM overall, it its own sick, twisted, perverted way, WORKS. It may not be perfect, but it's better than the way things are done in Cambodia or the Philippines. Thailand's political institutions still have some evolving to do...

In any event, my main point in that passage you quote is that movements in the local markets do not positively correlate with Thaksin's political fortunes, as you seemed to suggest initially.

Edited May 23, 2006 by tettyan

[tettyan]

You may feel biutter about Mr T in BKK but up country where I live the people in my area are delighted with what he has done for them, actually in real tterms. To quote my wife, she says tthat no government previously has ever given a ###### about the people in the north east, nor help to stabilise tthe price of paddy rice so farmers can make a modest living. He has helped farmers get out of crippling debtt from money lenders by setting up the rural village 1M baht funding scheme. Somewhat controvertially he has eliminated local drug dealers (including some policementt) who were poisoning the school kids with pills. He has spents on road improvements, irrigation and school equipment. So in my area, rightly or wrongly they are 100% behind him and believe he has been victimised by the BKK elite (fat cats who have had their fingers chopped off and dont get to feed at the trough like tthey used to.

I don't dispute your analysis at all. The pre-Thaksin political establishment, and the Democrats in particular, usually failed to address issues that mattered to most voters' everyday lives. That still doesn't excuse Thaksin's ethical lapses, his strong authoritarian tendencies and corruption. Yes, it's impossible to compeletely eliminate corruption everywhere. Corruption has taken place under this government on an unprecendented scale - speaking of which, as Chang Noi mentioned in his column last week, how come no one has come out to unequivocally deny Snoh's claim that "10% of gov't budget is siphoned to TRT coffers"?

Let me tell you a story. A family member of a very close friend of mine is an official in a provincial government. A couple weeks before the 2005 election, everyone in her department was called into a meeting. They were to listen to a guest speaker - a current cabinet minister who at the time was serving as Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Cooperatives (I will not specify his name, but those of you who are enterprising enough can find out on your own). Before the minister got up to speak, envelopes containing 1000 baht each were distributed to everyone in the audience. Finally, the minister got up to speak - "Is there anyone here who does not support Thai Rak Thai? Or are some of you neutral? Because if you're 'neutral', you can be sent to a less 'neutral' territory".

While corruption may not be something new to Thailand, for my friend's family member at least (who has been in her line of work for more than 15 years), this was.

Edited May 23, 2006 by tettyan

[John K]

Rest assured that 95% of what Thaksin did today was self serving. The fact that the EC said they would reject the findings that the TRT was funding smaller parties and that Thaksin was named as a co conspirator if not the head conspirator. Apparently the argument from the EC was the investigation was not complete.

Well let me see here, if any of us committed a crime the police would arrest us as soon as they had enough evidence. Then they would continue to gather additional evidence after we had been arrested.

Now seeing as this has all the trademark markings of Thaksin intervening, can you guess what will happen next? Perhaps the reason the investigation committee quit before they finished was because Thaksin was already on them. You know death threats and other such annoyances that can ruin your day. Again all his trademark markings on this. So rest assured he is working for himself, and Thailand is just a tool for him to make more money. So you can see how he is thinking. Sounds a lot like the thinking with his big deal that put all of this on the street.

The good thing is he can’t get much lower, or at least I can’t conceive a way. No morals or ethics. No redeeming traits that I can see.

So this is what Thaksin feared most. As soon as he went out of office the world started to close in on him. He is trying to save his ASSets.

For you people that are saying he did good for the country, yes he did some good things. But there is another saying that rings true here. “When you dance with the devil .......”

So what needs to be done is simply cut the losses and endure a time of stormy times while the Thais find a real person with morals and the same skills.

[bkkjosh]

Which fundamentals are these? Socio-economic fundamentals? Political fundamentals? Please elaborate...

Economic mostly. Political to some extent as well - in the sense that contrary to many predictions, there was no outbreak of violence on the streets and no coup. The way it looks now, the country is on its way to resolving this crisis before the end of the year. When considering "political stability", that the system remains stable is more important than whether the same government keeps getting re-elected, or the same faces stick around. So in spite of unease that the events of the past few months may have caused, in the end, it has shown that the SYSTEM overall, it its own sick, twisted, perverted way, WORKS. It may not be perfect, but it's better than the way things are done in Cambodia or the Philippines. Thailand's political institutions still have some evolving to do...

In any event, my main point in that passage you quote is that movements in the local markets do not positively correlate with Thaksin's political fortunes, as you seemed to suggest initially.

I'll make the point clearer. A country with a "caretaker" and not a PM *will* be negatively affected, no matter who the PM is. I will go on to say that when a government hasn't got a PM, but a "caretaker" then the local market *will* be adversely affected. People don't want to invest in a market with an unsteady government.

What economic elements are you talking about? Because when I mentioned the effect of economic elements earlier in the thread you accused me of going off-topic.

[tettyan]

What economic elements are you talking about? Because when I mentioned the effect of economic elements earlier in the thread you accused me of going off-topic.

You went at length earlier about fluctuations in world commodity prices. These are issues that affect the entire world economy, not just Thailand. Furthermore, Thaksin or the political situation in Thailand doesn't have any effect on these prices.

Many economic factors are just simply beyond the government's control. You say you fear money is flowing out, but the strengthening baht indicates that money is actually flowing in. This has more to do with the broader decline of the US dollar against all Asian currencies rather than circumstances specific to Thailand.

Yes, the markets do want an end to the current political crisis. And it's becoming clearer that any resolution will have to involve Thaksin's removal from any prominent political role for at least the near future. That's the reason why the markets rallied after Thaksin's announcement of his "break" from politics in April. However, as the stalemate drags on, the ambiguous nature of Thaksin's "break" only becomes clearer, creating more uncertainty. He should be more unequivocal in announcing his resignation and designating a successor, but he insists on clinging to power. Well, I guess having Thaksin clearly responsible is better than the situation with an "acting caretaker" PM Chidchai in charge. But then that re-opens the question of whether he plans to stick around after the next election, which creates further instability.

[penzman]

Well Gents

Its all very well to bleat about Mr T enriching himself blah blah. That has been going on for the last 20 years of my experience here. Can you point to a credible opposition and what they are going to do to stop these practices. You might well get a new young charismatic PM like Khun Abhisit but he would need the support of all the OLD establishment cronies and all their long standing corruptt habits. So you may exchange one set of bandits for anothter.

except the country is in a position to prosecute a top dog . most people are aware that he sold ( yes he , not his kids ) his stake in his company and then did not pay any tax . He needs to be torn to shreds , along with the rest of the clan , and afterwards thay can start working down and removing the apparatus he has put in place . I am sure if they start putting a few of these elite individuals in jail and doing some severe asset stripping if will make sure less people will be willing to overstep the boundries of corruption. mr 't' and his clan have done alot of very dodgy deals since he came to power - the country needs to start the ball rolling .

The courts ruling that the election was invalid and the EC should resign , maybe an indication that they have put some lead into their pencils - although we do know whose directive they were following , but if the momentum can be kept up and they can see they can get away with going against the wishes of the reigning poo yai - maybe some real results will be forthcoming - all this carring on about maintaining the staus quo because its gives the country stability is just sweeping the real problem under the carpet.

Exactly. As long as crooked PMs, politicians, government officers, police and the rest have this assurance of being "untouchable" and that the worse that can happen is a demotion, the country will always be back to square one. Look at the EC who are still hanging on thinking they are ebove court rulings, daring to come up with new election dates..

[sriracha john]

Here's a nice IN-YOUR-FACE-THAKSIN court decision to mark his return as PM...

Courts acquit destroyers of voting ballots

Songkhla and Trang Courts acquitted on Tuesday trials against voters who tore up election ballots in the controversial April 2 election on grounds that the election was already invalidated.

The rulings would set standard for other similar trials.

In Sonkhla, public prosecutors had sought punishment for seven people, including Dr Kriengsak Lewchanpattana, who tore up the election ballots in the election.

The Court ruled that as the Constitution Court has nullified the April election on grounds that it was unconstitutional, the trials against the group of people are acquitted.

Meanwhile in Trang, Court acquitted Thotsaporn Kanchana-amornpat who destroyed ballots in the election. The Court acquitted his trial on grounds that he used his democratic rights when tearing up the ballots and that the Constitution Court have nullified the April election.

- TN

[lukamar]

Courts acquit destroyers of voting ballots

Songkhla and Trang Courts acquitted on Tuesday trials against voters who tore up election ballots in the controversial April 2 election on grounds that the election was already invalidated.

The rulings would set standard for other similar trials.

You have to wonder if this ruling has set a precedent, with the charges of paying small parties to run against the TRT, if in fact that was the case, and any other charges relating out of the April2 election or by-elections. If a higher court ruled against the TRT then they would also have to overturn the lower court rulings as well. The lower courts may have just let everyone off the hook.

I can't help but wonder if the current mess from all the court rulings is what the Palace had in mind when addressing the courts and asking them to fix the previous problems. Things may well be worse now and in the future, than having let the April 2 election stand.

[sriracha john]

sheesh....when things go bad for Thaksin, they seem to accumulate and pick up momentum...

Yet another court ruling against him:

Court rejects protest ban

The Constitution Court yesterday rejected as unconstitutional clauses in a TRT government-sponsored amendment to the Highway Act that would ban protests on public roads.

The judges voted eight to six against the clauses, the court's secretary-general Paiboon Varahapaitoon said.

Paiboon said the majority of the judges agreed the clauses would violate Article 29 of the Constitution, which prohibits any restriction of rights and liberties recognised by the charter, and Article 44, which guarantees the right of citizens to assemble peacefully. The case had been filed by 95 MPs and 79 senators.

The six dissenting judges said the clauses would "only apply a necessary limit to freedom and liberty with no impact on its essence", Paiboon said.

- TN

[jdinasia]

you mean TRT doesn't still have the power to waive the constitution ? ... and despite people crying that the protests were illegal that they were in fact part of the process of democracy?

[sriracha john]

PAD accuses Thaksin of perjuring himself

Caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has reneged on his promise not to partake in government work by returning to preside over a Cabinet meeting, the People’s Alliance for Democracy said after the Cabinet meeting yesterday.

However, the anti-Thaksin coalition said it will not hold any major public demonstrations until celebrations marking the diamond jubilee of His Majesty the King’s accession to the throne were concluded.

Suriyasai Katasila, a founding PAD member, said the alliance, which is taking a break from formal activities out of respect for the courts’ deliberations to resolve the political crisis, considers Thaksin to have perjured himself by returning to the helm of the caretaker government.

“It is the worst form of perjury because Thaksin himself made the promise to the public after an audience with His Majesty the King,” Suriyasai said.

Suriyasai also said the broken promise has had an effect in the three violence-plagued southern provinces.

“Violence associated with the insurgency became more severe immediately after Thaksin’s return,” Suriyasai said.

Despite previously saying that the PAD would stage more demonstrations if Thaksin went back on his word, Suriyasai said yesterday that the PAD will take no action for now.

“The PAD leaders will meet to discuss the situation, but we will not launch any new protests until the 60th anniversary of His Majesty the King’s accession to the throne has passed,” he said. On Friday, the PAD canceled a demonstration in support of the courts scheduled for Monday after a Supreme Court judge spoke out against it.

Thaksin’s announcement that he would not accept the premiership in the new government was broadcast on national television on April 4, immediately after he had an audience with His Majesty.

- TD

------------------------------

"Liar, Liar, Pants On Fire"

[sriracha john]

Thaksin’s return ‘good’ for the economy

Analysts say delays in the US$44-billion megaprojects, unsigned Free Trade Agreements and the prospect of five months without a real government has affected Thailand’s competitiveness, and investors may head elsewhere.

More fallout to the quagmire:

USA won't negotiate with caretaker government

The United States is ready to resume negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA) with Thailand when the political situation here is clearer, US ambassador Ralph Boyce said yesterday. He said the US has not lost interest in an FTA with Thailand, but Washington cannot negotiate a deal with a caretaker government, Mr Boyce said in an interview.

''There's a legal problem,'' he said. The ambassador was responding to caretaker Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak's call to resume the stalled talks.

Continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/24May2006_news13.php

[tettyan]

Your speculation is boring.

I'm not the one shooting from the hip here. Rather, hair-brained schemes such as the whole "barter trade" idea of exchanging frozen chicken for electric trains, along with an inability to prioritize projects, reflects consistently poor planning on the government's part, regardless of the recent political crisis.

The fact is, there were already many doubts about the viability of the "mega-projects" long before the current political crisis. Penzman mentioned the rather unprofessional presentation to foreign ambassadors and investors back in January. Some of my friends at MFA were involved in organizing that, and they said that for the ambassadors, it generated much confusion, raising more questions rather than answers. The government was still insisiting that all 10 transit lines could be built in the next 10 years (without prioritizing), while on the financing front, all the PM said basically was "we're open to creative ideas". Simply pathetic, if you ask me.

A decent master plan was already on the table when this gov't first took office. If they just went along with it then back when interest rates were low, the projects wouldn't be in the mess they're in now. Instead, they froze the old plan and put all their energy into a completely unrealistic scheme to nationalise both BTS and MRT. Inevitably, they had to give up, but not before wasting two years. Then they drastically altered the old master plan to require two new expensive tunnels accross the Chao Phraya in order to allow two lines to pass by Thaksin's residence on Charoen Saritwong (by coincidence of course). Then, the gov't decided to cancel the Orange and Purple lines, citing lack of funds. But with strong protests from local constituents, the governement change its mind two months later, insisting again that they can build all 10 lines at once. All the while Thaksin was blocking the BMA's efforts to extend BTS with their own (not central gov't's) money. So, is it surprising that people find it hard to believe anything this government says anymore? (again, if I havn't emphasized this enough, all the events I just listed took place BEFORE the political crisis)

Edited May 24, 2006 by tettyan

[hammered]

Courts acquit destroyers of voting ballots

Songkhla and Trang Courts acquitted on Tuesday trials against voters who tore up election ballots in the controversial April 2 election on grounds that the election was already invalidated.

The rulings would set standard for other similar trials.

You have to wonder if this ruling has set a precedent, with the charges of paying small parties to run against the TRT, if in fact that was the case, and any other charges relating out of the April2 election or by-elections. If a higher court ruled against the TRT then they would also have to overturn the lower court rulings as well. The lower courts may have just let everyone off the hook.

I can't help but wonder if the current mess from all the court rulings is what the Palace had in mind when addressing the courts and asking them to fix the previous problems. Things may well be worse now and in the future, than having let the April 2 election stand.

There is a bit of a difference between organizing an unconstitutional election and spending a fortune in tax payers money doing so, and resisting an unconstitutional election by protest. No precedent has been set on the former. Allowing an unconstitutional election to stand would have been far worse than allowing the legislature to do its job.