advancebooking Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 A CBA currency strategist recently implied his guestimate that the Aussie dollar is heading in a downwards direction; and by the end of the year could be in the mid 70c range- depending on what happens with mining investment. If your living the dream life in LOS drawing on your money each month from oz, do you think it would be worth sending a large lump sum and sticking it in a high interest account here and subsequently drawing on that instead? How do you manage your money at the moment? Are you living off a monthly pension and pulling it out of the atm each month or do you wire over money 6 monthly or yearly? Please share with us what is your modus operandi when it comes to your finances. cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SheungWan Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Suitable punishment for winning the Ashes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubbaJohnny Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 (edited) US$ A$ pair only really vital if you spend pay in dollars despite all the probs here its been in 27-32 bahts range and I guess the China 'mine' decline means sinkimg at similar speed to baht versus the greenback. The question I ask myself who do I trust to allow me to move my cash in and out freely,Is there any chance of Thai or Australian bank confiscation or bail-ins like Cyprus. Sorry I have no crystal ball.The current and forthcoming game changer seem good reasons in my circumstances to wait and see. By Sepetember many factors war,Fed tapering,new regime here will make me review my options.If you are happy for your cash to be here forever I'd take anywhere north of 34-35 range when the US is over 40.This may never happen. Edited February 1, 2014 by RubbaJohnny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aarn Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I was in Oz November/December/January and the daily radio palaver from many insitutionally-based economists (IBEs***) was that the $AUD must decline in order to save onshore industries. Shutting the gate after the horse has bolted 'coz the remaining car manufacturers, and much associated infrastructure, will be offshore in four years... Of course such a decline may favour agricultural exports and the agrarian socialist tendency in still strongly represented in Liberal/Nats federal government. The halycon days - five years ago - of term deposit interest rates offered by larger Australian banks, are of course over. At that time ~ 6.5% was the norm, now 4% more usual, but no doubt those IBEs will talk it down further, bringing interest rates closer to the rates of Thailand and many western countries. The way I do the annual 'retirement' extension here, is having a combination of money in a Thai bank (500kB+) and income statement from the embassy (hoping my massive AUD$12k income [well below the dole] will at least equate to 300kB). It raises my hackles somewhat to see discussion of locking up 800kB+ in a high-interest bearing deposit in Thailand, for the purposes of renewing the annual extension. I kinda thought we got the privelege to live here in our declining years provided we splash a bit of cash around the local economy, not lock it up. Maybe I am too naive... or a fool. Idol thoughts on a good drinking day, cheers AA. *** I had an understanding the economists/IBEs serve a function in the real world, now I realise that their main task is fuelling economic speculation. <Suitable punishment for winning the Ashes.> Nah, your lot lost them! Your lot won the first day (of what should have been 5x5 days of intensely pleasuarable armchair sportsmanship), then it turned to 20 days of mostly <deleted> through bad luck and gamesmanship. A least the BarmeyAs could still raise a cheer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marko kok prong Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 i had no choice,i transferred all my money here,so my ex missus could not get it,at the time i got 32b to the dollar or there abouts,glad i did it then,also much better you send money here in as dollars,much better conversion rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple1 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I am not a FX expert, but I believe there is no direct link between the US$ and A$ rates that affects the A$ to baht exchange rate. There has been some speculation that the baht will weaken against the A$ in the coming months, but no guarantee. From a recommendation by another post, it does not make any fiscal sense to convert from A$ to US$, then to the baht. Best way is to remit in A$ to your Thai bank account. NB: Not all banks have the facility to electronically transmit A$ to Thailand, some only permit buying & transmitting in baht which equates to a poor exchange rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Not all banks have the facility to electronically transmit A$ to Thailand, some only permit buying & transmitting in baht sorry Simple, but that's pure refined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple1 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 (edited) Not all banks have the facility to electronically transmit A$ to Thailand, some only permit buying & transmitting in baht sorry Simple, but that's pure refined Not sure if your being pedantic as I used the term 'facility'. I know it sounds strange, but unless policy has changed in the past two years, from personal experience, some banks (not all) in Australia will only permit transmission in Thai baht for personal account holders, not A$. Edited February 2, 2014 by simple1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Not all banks have the facility to electronically transmit A$ to Thailand, some only permit buying & transmitting in baht sorry Simple, but that's pure refined Not sure if your being pedantic as I used the term 'facility'. I know it sounds strange, but unless policy has changed in the past two years, from personal experience, some banks (not all) in Australia will only permit transmission in Thai baht for personal account holders, not A$. now we are in agreement. any bank in Australia can transfer AUD to any bank outside Australia. if a bank in Oz insist on transferring THB then the only reason is to make additional profit on the back of its customer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple1 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Not all banks have the facility to electronically transmit A$ to Thailand, some only permit buying & transmitting in baht sorry Simple, but that's pure refined Not sure if your being pedantic as I used the term 'facility'. I know it sounds strange, but unless policy has changed in the past two years, from personal experience, some banks (not all) in Australia will only permit transmission in Thai baht for personal account holders, not A$. now we are in agreement. any bank in Australia can transfer AUD to any bank outside Australia. if a bank in Oz insist on transferring THB then the only reason is to make additional profit on the back of its customer. Ooops - Just noticed the wording error in my orginal post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moradave Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Right now I ship in only enough US $ for monthly expenses. I see further weakening in the baht based on current political conditions. Always ship in $, never baht. Do not make a conversion from Aus to US $. Ship only Aus $ from Oz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JesseFrank Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 A CBA currency strategist recently implied his guestimate that the Aussie dollar is heading in a downwards direction; and by the end of the year could be in the mid 70c range I guess the people who shouted from the tower that getting 8-10% on a fixed account in Australia was a good investment, understand now why they got those high interest rates, and that it wasn't a good investment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrWorldwide Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Wishful thinking on the part of the CBA analysts - most of the 'expert' forecasts I've seen point to a dollar somewhere between 80 and 85 US cents by the end of 2014, but as others have pointed out the currency pair that most here are concerned with is AUDTHB. In my case, its mainly AUDMYR, and I'll be happy to get on the plane with anything resembling the numbers I'm seeing today for both pairs. If the Pacific Peso drops below 24THB/2.4MYR, there may be cause for concern - for now, I believe Aussies with a focus on Thailand have bigger concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 some "@nals" predict outrageous forecasts just to be mentioned in the media. famous are the yearly outrageous forecasts from Saxo Bank (a Danish bank enjoying internationally relatively high esteem). some of the ridiculous forecasts for 2013 were: -DAX plunges 33% to 5000. -WTI crude hits $50/barrel -Hong Kong unpegs HKD from USD and re-pegs to CNY -30Y UST yield doubles. -USDJPY heads to 60. -EURCHF breaks peg... 95. http://uk.saxomarkets.com/publishingimages/outrageous-predictions-2013/outrageous-predictions-2013.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jasun Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Inevitable the AUD will drop, and weaken significantly against the baht over the next 12-18 months. You don't have to look far back (around 5 years ago) when it was down around 22 baht to the AUD. Unless there's utter chaos in Thailand, I'm guessing it'll eventually pull up a little shy of that figure this cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple1 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Inevitable the AUD will drop, and weaken significantly against the baht over the next 12-18 months. You don't have to look far back (around 5 years ago) when it was down around 22 baht to the AUD. Unless there's utter chaos in Thailand, I'm guessing it'll eventually pull up a little shy of that figure this cycle. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Inevitable the AUD will drop, and weaken significantly against the baht over the next 12-18 months. You don't have to look far back (around 5 years ago) when it was down around 22 baht to the AUD. Unless there's utter chaos in Thailand, I'm guessing it'll eventually pull up a little shy of that figure this cycle. Why? because its inevitable! as simple as that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrWorldwide Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 If I had gone long on the AUDUSD when the OP started this thread and held on till this morning (5th Feb in Oz), I would have made over 200 pips in 3 days. Depending on the size of your trade, a pip can be anything from 10 cents to $$$ - do the math, but risk always equals reward and hindsight is a wonderful thing. I *did* take an AUDUSD trade on the 2nd, but took profits as the market started to retrace around the 88 cent mark. My point is that the turnaround seems to be on the back of indications from the Reserve Bank that it's happy with interest rates where they are, and happy to see our dollar in the 80+ US cents region. Onshore rate for AUDTHB seems to be in the ~29 baht region, and my little graph tells me that I can get something very close to that at a number of ATM machines (TT rate): http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx Will it all change between now and the end of the year ? Of course. Will it be as drastic as some here are predicting ? I doubt it, but either way I can do absolutely nothing about it. The beauty of the FOREX market - and I admit that I'm new at this - is that I can make money either way. Or lose money if I try to trade purely on the basis of the opinions expressed on TV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrWorldwide Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 (edited) Inevitable the AUD will drop, and weaken significantly against the baht over the next 12-18 months. You don't have to look far back (around 5 years ago) when it was down around 22 baht to the AUD. Unless there's utter chaos in Thailand, I'm guessing it'll eventually pull up a little shy of that figure this cycle. Please pull up the following 10 year charts - I got mine from xe.com, and I'll be happy to edit my figures if I have made a mistake: USDTHB GBPTHB AUDTHB EURTHB Now jot down what each of these currencies was worth circa Jan 2005 and what each is worth today. The first thing that stands out is that the baht has 'appreciated' massively in real terms against each of the Western currencies - ask yourself what kind of lifestyle 100K baht a month would have bought you in 2004 Jan 2005 vs 2014 ..... By my reading of the charts - and they've all had large peaks and troughs - this is the state of play on Feb 5, 2014 (baht rounded up or down to the nearest whole number). Please advise if you disagree with any of these figures. Currency Jan,2005 2014 Percentage decrease GBP 70 55 21.43% USD 40 33 17.5% EUR 50 45 10% AUD 30 29 3.33% For the sake of argument, lets take your 22 baht figure as our 'worst case': AUD 30 22 26.67% In a ten-year period, the AUD briefly dipped to a level close to that currently being endured by the most vocal section of this board - Brit expats - yet you are prepared to ignore the fact that our dollar has been in the 26-30 baht range since 2009 ? As of right now, Australians are enjoying the best comparative exchange rate of any of the currencies displayed above, and you've donned sackcloth and ashes to predict our decline based on nothing beyond a quick glance at a graph ? If you cast your mind back to last year, many Brits were spitting chips about the pound slumping to below 44 baht - looking at that chart, I can definitely see what they were on about - by contrast, Australians have had it good and (at the time of writing) continue to do so. Even if you work from our heyday up around 33 baht to the dollar, we've done very well to scramble back into the ~29 baht range. We'd all like to return to the heady days of 2005, when you got more baht for your notes and every baht went further, but that's just not reality. We can gnash our teeth re the 'unrealistically high' value of the baht but personally I'll be ecstatic with anything from 26 baht up from April on - it will be interesting to revisit this thread in a couple of months. Edited February 5, 2014 by MrWorldwide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 @MrWorldwide pearls before... eggsburts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrWorldwide Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 @MrWorldwide pearls before... eggsburts I guess, but I couldnt just let that post slide : it's astounding how much more quickly some will flock to that kind of hysteria simply because of some lines on a graph ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 @MrWorldwide pearls before... eggsburts I guess, but I couldnt just let that post slide : it's astounding how much more quickly some will flock to that kind of hysteria simply because of some lines on a graph ..... inivitably! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 not off topic an interesting development AUDNZD. within days NZD gained considerably and... dropped back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samran Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The Australian dollar strengthens any time I need to send money down to OZ to pay my mortgage. I generally send money down mid month. So you can throw away your fancy currency strategists and crystal balls. I have the fool proof way to predict currency movements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMHO Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Inevitable the AUD will drop, and weaken significantly against the baht over the next 12-18 months. You don't have to look far back (around 5 years ago) when it was down around 22 baht to the AUD. Unless there's utter chaos in Thailand, I'm guessing it'll eventually pull up a little shy of that figure this cycle. So in essence you're predicting another GFC? That was the driver behind the AUD dipping to 22 Baht back in 2008... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrWorldwide Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Idly glanced at the AUDUSD this morning to find it continuing upward - checked my calendar for economic news and - sure enough - the ABS released a better-than-expected set of trade figures. For those who feel I'm plucking this out of my butt, fill yer boots ... http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar Once again, I find myself looking at the 90 cent level and saying 'No way will it go over 90 cents for more than a single candlestick !', but I said that at 89 cents. I'll leave it to the chartists to tell me whether the market makers are simply luring as many buyers to the edge of the cliff before they start to show their hand - the next hour or two should show us if that is the case. Exciting times for the Pacific Peso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Idly glanced at the AUDUSD this morning to find it continuing upward - checked my calendar for economic news and - sure enough - the ABS released a better-than-expected set of trade figures. For those who feel I'm plucking this out of my butt, fill yer boots ... http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar Once again, I find myself looking at the 90 cent level and saying 'No way will it go over 90 cents for more than a single candlestick !', but I said that at 89 cents. I'll leave it to the chartists to tell me whether the market makers are simply luring as many buyers to the edge of the cliff before they start to show their hand - the next hour or two should show us if that is the case. Exciting times for the Pacific Peso x-axis time: CET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
advancebooking Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 I am not a FX expert, but I believe there is no direct link between the US$ and A$ rates that affects the A$ to baht exchange rate. There has been some speculation that the baht will weaken against the A$ in the coming months, but no guarantee. From a recommendation by another post, it does not make any fiscal sense to convert from A$ to US$, then to the baht. Best way is to remit in A$ to your Thai bank account. NB: Not all banks have the facility to electronically transmit A$ to Thailand, some only permit buying & transmitting in baht which equates to a poor exchange rate. ''Not all banks have the facility to electronically transmit A$ to Thailand, some only permit buying & transmitting in baht which equates to a poor exchange rate.'' this is correct. The Citibank plus account that offers free IMT's is free for a reason. They can only convert AUD to baht in oz and then send baht. This is not good for its customers ANZ can remit AUD to thailand and then convert in thailand. But she said you have to check that your thai bank can accept oz and convert here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I am not a FX expert, but I believe there is no direct link between the US$ and A$ rates that affects the A$ to baht exchange rate. There has been some speculation that the baht will weaken against the A$ in the coming months, but no guarantee. From a recommendation by another post, it does not make any fiscal sense to convert from A$ to US$, then to the baht. Best way is to remit in A$ to your Thai bank account. NB: Not all banks have the facility to electronically transmit A$ to Thailand, some only permit buying & transmitting in baht which equates to a poor exchange rate. ''Not all banks have the facility to electronically transmit A$ to Thailand, some only permit buying & transmitting in baht which equates to a poor exchange rate.'' this is correct. The Citibank plus account that offers free IMT's is free for a reason. They can only convert AUD to baht in oz and then send baht. This is not good for its customers ANZ can remit AUD to thailand and then convert in thailand. But she said you have to check that your thai bank can accept oz and convert here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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